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Published on Thursday, 10 September 2015 21:08

Vuelta Stage 19

Medina del Campo to Ávila

Friday 11th September, 185.5kms 

There is no stopping Thomas the Tank, he is just so, so strong - Aru to his credit gave it everything he had, but Tom never looked in trouble, he was able to just ride along with him, sitting in the saddle the whole time. It is now evens each of the two of them on Betfair with only 3 stage left - no one can separate them! 

It was another fantastic day of racing today though, everybody wanted to get in the break and the fight was furious at the start - at one point there was a group with no less than FIFTY TWO riders who had tried to get away and after an hour they had covered more than 50kms but no break had managed to get away. Eventually a break went with 25 riders and they ultimately fought out the finish although it blew apart on the final climb. I'm delighted for Roche, but gutted I didn't have the confidence to back him! Congrats to those of you who had faith and backed him at 25/1.. I did manage to get a good bet on him at 11/10 in running though which helped. He was superb, he seemed to come out of nowhere, one minute they were showing him off the back, the next minute he was up the road on the attack passing Gautier! 

Terpstra and JVDB didn't start so you should get stakes back on those guys. Roche also easily won our match bet at evens and Visconti won his match bet so it wasn't such a bad day. Tom Dumoulin once again did exactly as I expected him to, he was just far too strong for Aru, he couldn't shake him off no matter what he threw at him. If you did back him at 2.72 before the stage for the overall you can lay off again now at evens to add 1.4pts profit on him if he wins.

I’d love to see this stage come down to a GC mens battle as the final three kilometres could be pretty interesting. After the Cat 2 climb, which they should all be able to get over safely, there is the charge down to the outskirts of Avila and then the climb up to the famous castled walls of the town of Avila. This finish has been used before in the Vuelta, one of my favourite memories of it of course has to be Philip Deignan’s fantastic victory when riding for the Cervelo Test Team, outgunning none other than Roman Kreuziger in a two-up sprint to the line. They had managed to escape from the break of the day on the descent off the final climb. Not only is it a hard section of climbing with 2.5kms to go, but the roads are also cobbled in parts, making it a difficult finish for those who are not fans of the stones..

The profile looks like it could be a day for the breakaway, but I think Astana and Movistar will have enough interest in the finish of this stage to want to push on from early on and control the break. There are also a few men on other teams who will like this finish, if they can get to the 5km to go mark with the leaders we could see lots of attacks in the closing kilometres from the likes of Aru and other riders fighting for GC placings. 

The Route

^{A longish stage at 185kms, but a stage for the most part where we will probably see the GC men look to save energy ahead of the final big mountain stage of the race on Saturday. They start in Medina del Campo and head south-east for almost 140kms until they reach El Tiemblo, passing through the finishing town of Avila on the way and going off on the loop to the right you can see in the map below. When they pass through Avila they actually go up and over the little climb at the finish, that's the little lump you can see to the left of the feed zone icon below.} 

^{The first 70kms are just one long drag uphill and between the 70-90km mark it gets a bit lumpier. At 91kms, as they leave Avila, they start climbing the Cat 3 Alto de Valdivia, a long climb at 14kms, but not too difficult at just xx% average. From the top there's a long fast and tricky descent for 35kms to El Tiemblo, the southern-miost point on the day. From there they turn back north and start climbing the Cat 2 Alto de la Paramera. Although the official distance of the categorised part is given as 8.7kms at an average of 4.5%, they will actually have been climbing for closer to 17kms from the bottom of the valley.} 

^{From the top there are just 19kms to go, 13kms of which are descending off the climb, a descent interrupted by a little kick up around the 10km to go point. There's a brief area of flat roads to recover and prepare for the finish for about 2.5kms until they hit around 2.5km to go mark and start climbing towards the finish. The finish is a familiar one in Avila, the climb up to the castle kicks up hard from 2500m to go, climbing 1.5kms at an average of 4.5%, before easing back a little for the final kilometre to just 1-2%. It is a tough finish on some cobbled roads and if riders aren’t careful there could be splits all over the peloton that could cost someone time.} 

Contenders and Favourites

The break will go again, but like today it could take a long time for it to get away. It has a chance again of staying away, the peloton are pretty tired now and there's a tough stage to come on Saturday. But the race is so close, not just for the red leader's jersey, but also for the Points jersey - Valverde is now just 2pts behind Rodriguez and is sure to be going all out to try to win a jersey and get on the final podium as his GC ambitions are long gone. This is probably his best chance of getting a lot of points - if they manage to reel in the break with 30kms or so to go then he could fight out the intermediate sprint for points at the 158km mark, there's just 27kms left to go at that point. The finish should suit Valverde too with a tough uphill finish that eases off nicely for a sprint in the last kilometre.

The question is, will the peloton be able to control the break and reel them in in time? Movistar are sure to be keen to control and try to win this stage - it will take an extraordinary ride from Quintana to get on the podium on Saturday, so tomorrow should be a big day for the team to try to take a stage and the points jersey. Who will help them? Well Astana might, depending on how well Aru is feeling, but will they be scared of Dumoulin, or want to take him on on the cobbled climb to the line? Hard to know, but I think they will help - Aru needs to just keep pushing him.. Anything can happen yet, but they need to keep pushing and pushing, every joule of energy they take out of his legs will make his job harder on Saturday. 

Movistar also have the second favourite in Gio Visconti at just 14/1 - he was one of my picks today and I really thought he might have gone in the break - as it turns out he missed the break, jumped on his own and attempted to bridge across, but 1 man against 25 was never going to happen. He got 30" on them but they were still 2'30" ahead at the time and he gave up and dropped back to the peloton. He still finished in 26th place, just 46" behind the GC men, so the legs are good. He could try to get in the break again, or if Valverde hasn't the legs, he could give it a go at the finish. But 14/1 is way too short now, he was 20/1 today and even that was tight. I think he will be asked to do a job for Valverde tomorrow and work in the chase, but also help in leading him out at the finish too.

I don't think Aru can win the stage, but he could try something on the final climb, it's a long climb and he could try to surprise Dumoulin if he sees any chink in his armour. But at the moment there doesn't appear to be any chinks. He was a match for everything Aru threw at him today, and confidently declared that after Aru's big first attack he knew that he wouldn't be able to get away from him today, he could sense his subsequent attacks were not as powerful. Tom is just so powerful at the moment he could well attack on this finish and even though he's not a sprinter, his power alone could see him surge up that last climb and possibly put a few seconds more in to Aru. I don't think he'll lose time. 

Another team that could be interested in working will be OGE - I had this stage marked down from the start as one for Simon Gerrans, he has been incredibly quiet in this race, you'd barely even realise that he has been in the race. But he is still coming back to form after his crash in the TDF, but must be keen to test himself properly ahead of heading across to the states for the World's. This stage finish looks good for him and OGE should work hard to pull the break back and lead him out on the final climb. He could also try for the break of the day, but I think it will be at the finish that he has his best chance - Daryl Impey will be invaluable in the last few kilometres.

And there are lots of others who have chances if it comes to a GC group finish - John Degenkolb might be ok on a finish like this, but his form hasn't been great and also G-A will be completely focused on TomDum - Deggers may even lead him in to the last kilometre to see if he can jump and take some bonus seconds. Jempy Drucker might like this uphill, cobbled climb, 50/1 might interest some. Van der Sande, Rojas, Goncalves, Simon, they could all be involved if it comes down to a bunch sprint.

As for the break, there were quite a lot of guys in today's break who may try again, but that was a hard stage for them today. There were also lots of guys like De Marchi, Cummings, Oliveira and so on who were fancied to get in the break today but missed it - they could try again tomorrow, but it's a stab in the dark with those guys. Also, the stronger guys with good legs still are possibly just going to wait for the big stage on Saturday. Roche is obviously in great shape, but that might be it from him now, he must be bloody delighted with his superb stage win. George Bennett, Iljo Keisse and Jens Keukeleire are three guys at big prices that caught my eye, they might go in the break or a late attack. 

When Bet365 opened they went 33/1 Gerrans, when PP were 12/1, I took half a point each-way on that, they are now 25/1. I think that's still worth a bet, but a small one. When PP opened they went 25/1 Valverde and I couldn't believe it, I thought he'd be favourite. I had a tiny bet and waited for others to come out to see what prices they went, but when Bet365 went 9/1, PP quickly dived for cover and when I went back to try to get more on at 25/1 he was already 14/1. I have 0.3pts each-way at 25/1 and 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 on Valverde and I'm happy with that. It's a big day again tommorrow, the Points jersey is up for grabs, hopefully we'll see another cracking day's racing like today. 

Edit: 10:48am - Jelle Vanendert has said this on the Lotto facebook page “The first issue is to try to be in the break. Every day, there is a real battle during more than one hour. That’s one of the most underestimated things in cycling: the battle to escape. The previous stages I tried it almost every day, but you also need some luck. In this Vuelta, with just three or four flat stages, a break can make it to the finish all the other days. Today I will try it again, I still want to show myself. And if I’m there, the finish can suit me indeed. I did the climb to the finish seven or eight years ago.”

So I've added a small bet on him at 66/1 with Boyles (well someone did for me, they won't take a penny from me any more!) He is 33/1 elsewhere but there is 65 available on Betfair.

Recommendations -

0.5pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 33/1 (take the 25/1 now)

0.5pts each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 14/1 and 0.3pts each-way at 25/1 with PP

0.2pts win on Iljo Keisse at 200/1 with 365

0.2pts win on George Bennett at 100/1 with 365

0.2pts win on Jens Keukeleire at 100/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 66/1 with Boyles

Matchbets

None of the matchbets interest me greatly, but one double looks like it should land - Valverde to beat Dumoulin and Goncalves to beat Serry - pays 0.86/1 with 365 - 2pts on that. 

Brambilla to beat Cardoso - 3pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes