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Published on Wednesday, 09 September 2015 23:07

Vuelta Stage 18

Roa to Riaza

Thursday 10th September, 204kms 

Four stages to go and this race is far from over! The TT may have rearranged the GC and put Tom Dumoulin in pole position, but boy is it close!! Fabio Aru did an incredible job to limit his losses to Dumoulin and now trails the Dutchman by just 3 seconds??. 3 Seconds?! It could turn out to be the closest GC result in Grand Tour history, and we never thought Lemond's 7" would ever be beaten.

This stage may seem like a transition stage, but with a Cat 1 climb coming just 13kms from the finish it could see some drama at the finish again. Anything can happen in the four stages to come - Astana now need to go on the attack again and try to put more time in to Dumoulin again. But it's going to be hard - none of the remaining stages are overly difficult for Dumoulin and he could just ride to the finish with Aru every day. Lotto-JumboNL have already said they will help their fellow Dutchman if he is fighting for the win, that could get interesting! It might require a stage win from Aru, or possibly something bizarre like a split coming over the line some day.

It was almost the perfect day today then, Dumoulin did the business and at one point was trading around 1.47 to win the overall, but then Aru came and did that storming ride to keep the lead down to just 3 seconds. So Dumoulin is back out to around 13/8, with Aru trading at 4/6.   

Sometimes a stage race can deliver surprises and unexpected GC rearrangements when you least expect it. The Vuelta was blown apart unexpectedly in 2012 when Saxo and Alberto Contador went on the offensive in a supposedly easy stage to steal the lead, and ultimately the race away from Rodriguez. The Tour this year was arguably decided on the second stage in the winds of Holland. The Dauphiné last year was won on the final stage by Andrew Talansky when Froome and Contador dithered and the 2014 Tour was more or less won by Nibali on the cobbled stage. I'm not saying we could see something similar happen necessarily, but with the Cat 1 climb coming just 13kms from the finish and a tricky, twisty descent on the way down, we could see some fireworks. 

Aru could try something to try to get away and gain time you'd think, if he doesn't get a gap he can ease off again and save energy for another day. Dumoulin has been so strong that it wouldn't be surprising to see him go on the offensive again, he could time trial his way to the finish again if he gets a small gap. Astana could look to blow it apart or go on the attack forcing others to chase and Movistar will have their confidence boosted by those rides in the TT, Valverde and Quintana were brilliant to finish in 3rd and 7th. Quintana is less than 3 minutes off the lead stil and has vowed to go on the attack, he has nothing to lose as he put it.

How amazing would that be if Quintana went on the attack on Saturday on the penultimate climb and quickly built up a lead of a minute or two, it would really cause consternation! It could even come down to the final stage and Aru and Dumoulin fighting it out for intermediate sprint bonus seconds! Whatever happens, it has been a brilliant race that has thrown up some really exciting racing and a GC that see's just 3" between the first two competitors with 17 stages behind them.

The Route

They move further in to the middle of Spain and closer to the finish line in Madrid with the third longest stage of the race at 204.5kms. They spend 3/4 of the race heading south over lumpy, rolling terrain, taking in two Cat 3 climbs before they double back around the 150km mark and start heading north towards the finish. 

After the 157km mark, just before the intermediate sprint, they start climbing and the first 20kms take them up to nearly 1,400m before they descend for 10kms to the bottom of the main climb of the day. The Puerto de la Quesera is a Cat 1 climb, 10kms long at an average of 5.2%, but isn't overly difficult with a max gradient of just 7%. The first three kilometres are pretty easy, at under 3%, but the remaining 7kms average closer to 7%. The climb is a spectacular one, zig-zagging its way up the side of the mountain, although the descent is almost trickier and could be used by skilled descenders to try to steal a march. 

The peak comes with just 13kms to go, and it will be a very fast last 13kms as they plunge downhill towards Riaza. The road descends all the way to the line, with the last 4kms being almost dead straight. If some riders have managed to get away over the top of the climb it will be a full on drag race to the line for the last 20 minutes. 

Contenders and Favourites

Another stage that is going to be a battle between the break and the GC guys, with the break having a good chance of going all the way again today. The profile favours a breakaway, especially for the really strong rouleurs who can climb too. One of the main reasons for why the break could make it tomorrow is that many riders will have enjoyed a second rest day today, taking it easy in the time trial to save energy for the breakaway effort tomorrow. Most riders had absolutely nothing to ride for in the TT and soft-pedaled around with this stage in mind. There aren't many stages left for breaks to make it, and there are plenty teams who are still looking for something out of this race. 

Another reason why the break could make it is that the GC men won't be too bothered about today's stage victory - many at the top of the GC will be tired after the TT today and will be looking to save energy for the stages to come, especially Saturday's big one. Their teams will also be looking to save energy, so I think the likes of Giant-Alpecin and Astana will be happy to call a truce again and just ride tempo to the finish. If the break isn't very strong and they don't get a massive lead, they might crank it up with 50kms to go and possibly could close it up on the final Cat 1 climb, but I think they may have too much of a gap to close up.

So it's back to the breakaway lottery time! Again, we have to look to who looks the strongest at this point in the race. It is often the same sorts of riders who we see on the offensive towards the end of a three week tour, some get stronger as the race goes on, others just wish it were over. It's a funny kind of day to get a handle on though, there's a flat opening 20kms which means it will be very, very fast and it may take a while for the break to form. There is a little lump to get over at the 25km point but that's all it is really, a little lump, but it could see where the break finally breaks the elastic. It's still more or less flat for the first 70kms though and that means that there may be not so many of the strong climbing types in the break. It's possibly a day more for the strong rouleurs, but some of the stronger climbers might also be able to infiltrate it.

I think it would also help if you are able to attack late or win a sprint from a small group, in case the break stay away and fight out the finish. Someone that can either attack on the climb, either early on if a good climber, or near the top to try to get 10-20" ahead of the descent and hold it all the way to the line if the chase behind is disorganised. Or jump late and hard also - an attack in the last kilometre as they look at each other and play cat and mouse.

So, who are the likely lads? Nikki Terpstra looks like someone who would like this stage, up until the Cat 1 climb near the finish! A rolling profile with a couple of easy Cat 3 should be right up his street, the question is, can he hang in there over the Cat 1 if there are some decent climbers in the break? He has been very active, and although he finished in a decent 21st place today in the TT, I have a feeling he didn't go full gas. At 100/1 I have to have an interest. 

Nelson Oliveira showed in the TT that he still has very good legs, the winner of stage 13 clocked a pretty decent time to finish in 8th place, but I wonder was he really going full gas, knowing that he was probably not going to beat the top 2 early on? Could he have held something back for a stage like today which would suit him? He has been very active and looks to be in great shape.

Omar Fraile might want to get in the break to put the KOM jersey to bed, the Cat 1 climb would probably put him out of reach. But I don't think he'll be good enough to win the stage, he'll do his job for the points and fade away after that, or more likely, he'll wait until Saturday. It's still possible for Rodolfo Torres to win the KOM jersey, he moved up to 5th place suddenly after his great ride in the break on Monday. But it will mean he has to go on the attack tomorrow and Saturday and take almost every point available. 

Giovanni Visconti is a rider I've fancied a few times for stages in this Vuelta, but he has been mostly on babysitting duties. Movistar will be keen to get a rider or two in the break as they are just a minute behind Sky in the Team Classification and Visconti could be a very suitable candidate for this stage. He is a powerful rider who can climb, descend well and sprint from a small group and he could get a shot at it tomorrow. He's quite short at 14/1 with 365, the 20/1 with PP is just about acceptable.

Sky will also be keen to get a man or two in the break, but who? Roche is a likely candidate, but has been takling about how much pain he has been in lately in his Irish Independent column. His knee has swollen up and he has talked about doing something in the coming days, I think tomorrow might be one day too soon. Kiryienka rode a very disappointing time trial, letting down his backers who hammered in to him all morning. He didn't even manage to finish on the podium. He could try to seek immediate redemtion and get in the break, but maybe he just hasn't the legs either, we haven't see a great deal of him, talk was he was saving himself for the TT! Geraint Thomas might finally try to get up the road, he hasn't gone on the attack once in this race and a stage like this might suit him, if only he didn't have to descend off a Cat 1 climb! I can't trust any of the Sky lads. 

Adam Hansen has tried to get in a few breaks but hasn't had much joy, he has had to resort to late forays that came to nothing. He tweeted Tuesday, in a bit of jest I reckon, that he had his first coffee since the start of the Vuelta yesterday, and that the 'sports directors said we have to get serious'.. They haven't had a great tour, with Boeckmans still in a bad way in hospital and most of the team underperforming. Bart de Clercq has been their best man so far, he might try to get in a break but he's too close to the top ten I think to be let go by his close rivals. Jurgen Van den Broeck did a good TT today to finish in 15th place and it seems he had been waiting for the TT to test himself ahead of the World's. Now that is out of the way he might try to get in a break on a day like this with a Cat 1 climb. It's not a confident selection by any means, but at 125/1 he's worth a small go.

Colombia have vowed to continue attacking for the last four stages of the race, Torres might try to get the points on the Cat1 climb to lift him to clear 2nd place with more points on offer Saturday too (I'm hoping he does so we get a return on our each-way on him!). But no matter which Colombian goes, I don't think they will win from a break. Lotto-JumboNL have been quite active all race, especially Bert-Jan Lindeman. Martin Tjallingi went in the break on stage 15 on Sunday, maybe his legs are getting better as the race goes on, he did an ok time trial today, he's 80/1 with PP. 

Lampre have a number of people who could get in the break - Durasek, Koshevoy, Oliveira, Plaza, Grmay. Oliveira did a good TT, but he wasn't happy with it, maybe he'll look for immediate redemption, he has looked very strong, he's 66/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Two other guys who might like this stage for a break and who did good TTs today are Steve Cummings and Jerome Coppel. Both led the TT at different points today, they ended up finishing 9th and 5th respectively. They might carry that form in to tomorrow's stage and try to get away in the break. Cummings is 150/1 with PP and Coppell is 50/1.

If the break doesn't make it, Alejandro would be a strong candidate for the win from a reduced sprint. If the break is reeled in, I think Astana might go full gas on the climb to try to allow Aru attack off the front near the top to try to steal a march on Dumoulin if he is back a bit in the peloton at the top of the climb. Or Movistar might push on also as they have a few guys who could attack near the top of the climb or win from the sprint. Daryl Impey could also be one to watch tomorrow, he could possibly get in the break or if it comes to a reduced sprint, he could be up there, he already almost won a stage from a sprint finish. He's 66/1 for tomorrow too.

It's a very hard stage to predict though - the break looks the most likely winner, but it could come back together and give us a sprint finish - watch in-play opportunities for that. I also think that Dumoulin is going to be hard to shake off and should finish on the same times tomorrow. With each day that passes his price will shorten from the 2.72 that he is now on Betfair, he might be worth topping up with another 2pts as a trading bet. 

In the Tour of Britain I have gone against Poels who is just too short altogether in my mind at 9/4, I've had a half a point each-way on Ruben Fernandez of Movistar at 9/1 with Bet365. This is a proper climb, eight kilometres at 5% average, climbing to over 1900ft, and Fernandez could go well in this field. Kiserlovski is fancied by Tinkoff-Saxo to go well tomorrow too, but I am just going to have a small bet on Fernandez at 9/1.

EDIT: 11am - both Terpstra and JVDB have decided that they didn't want to ride any more of this Vuelta and are going home to prepare for the World's.. Funny that two of my picks don't start! If you have backed them with your bookie you should get your stakes back as they won't start the stage. Adding an Etixx replacement instead in Pieter Serry at 100/1 with various.

Recommendations -

0.2pts win on Jurgen Van Den Broeck at 125/1 with Ladbrokes (edit: 11am, JVDB is going home today to focus on the World's apparently.. should get stakes back from your bookie as he doesn't start)

0.3pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Steve Cummings at 150/1 with PP

0.3pts win on Jerome Coppel at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts win on Nelson Oliveira at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Nikki Terpstra at 100/1 with PP (edit: 11am, Terpstra is going home today to focus on the World's apparently.. should get stakes back from your bookie as he doesn't start)

0.5pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 20/1 with Corals

0.25pts each-way on Pieter Serry at 100/1 with various

0.5pts each-way on Ruben Fernandez in the Tour of Britain Stage 5 at 9/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Visconti to beat LL Sanchez 1pt at 4/6 with Ladbrokes

Roche to beat Henao - 2pts at 1/1 with Bet365