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Published on Saturday, 05 September 2015 22:34

Vuelta Stage 15

Comillas to Sotres. Cabrales

Sunday 6th September, 175.8kms 

A jaunt along the coast for 70kms and then things start to get a bit more serious as they start to make forays in to the hills above the coast. It may look like a jaunt, but being on the coast, winds could play havoc if teams really look to take advantage of it. It's a stage that's a bit of a slow burner again, culminating in a beast of a climb.

The wind is forecast to be coming from the north-east, which will make it a cross/tailwind for all of the opening 70kms as they race along the coast towards Ribadesella. The profile looks pretty flat but there are lots of little rolling hills along the way and if someone lets go of a wheel on one of the little hills, and there's a cross-wind blowing from their right we could see some splits. 

Hard to believe after backing him the day before and mentioning that he could try again today, Alessandro de Marchi only went and did what he did today. It was sickening to see the break climb to over 10 minutes and the peloton completely give up chasing them. Nine minutes lead as they approached the final climb of the day was never going to be pulled back. He did a brilliant job of bluffing the rest of the break, letting them attack each other and pretending to not have the legs to chase, and then pounced inside the last 2kms to go after and pass Puccio.

Behind, Dumoulin lost small time as Aru attacked, blowing things to pieces, but it was Quintana that looked the most impressive, attacking away at the end and clawing back 6". He looks to be a lot better after his sickness, he looked very smooth today going after Aru. Three minutes might be a lot to claw back but there are still three tough mountain stages to go with the next two and the penultimate stage next Saturday, and he's capable of beating him in the TT too. He might just be a little bit more worried going to bed tonight than he was last night. Dumoulin is now 49" behind, but to be counted out I think Aru needs over 2 minutes on him going in to the TT. Chaves and Majka are certainly not out of it either and there is going to be a real battle for the podium places over the coming week.  

The Route

As mentioned above, it's a pretty featureless opening 70kms, on a route that passes through Póo on the way, yep, infantile comments guaranteed from Carlton tomorrow! Once they reach Ribadesella after 70kms they head south in a loop of around 50kms that takes them over a couple of uncategorised bumps and then the first categorised climb of the day, the Alto del Torno. This is a Cat 2 climb of 10.1kms, at an average gradient of 3.2%, shouldn't really be any problem to any of them. 

Once over the top they come back down to the coast road they had ridden up previously and turn off right again after 130kms to head south towards the finish. Curiously, on the original maps that were on the Vuelta website about a month ago, there was a 3rd Cat climb at Carrera de Cabrales with 147.8kms gone, but that seems to have disappeared from the latest profile. But that's not surprising, the data and information from the Vuelta organisers is pretty appalling. So now, instead, it's a Cat 3 climb that rises 460m over 8kms. The descent of 8kms takes them to the bottom of the final climb of the day, the Alto de Sotres. 

The road rises for approx 5 kilometres before they start the climb proper with 163.1kms gone. The Alto de Sotres is 12.7kms long at an average of 7.9%, but it goes in three steps. The first 6kms are pretty hard, averaging 8%, with parts hitting 10-11%. That's followed by a slightly easier section of 4kms at 5%, with the first kilometre of that section being just around 1.25%. Then, with 3kms to go the road really kicks up - the last 3kms average 11.3% with sections as high as 13.3% and it finishing at a gradient of over 13% in the last kilometre. As they go through the big switchback with 2.5kms to go they start to head north-east and in the last kilometre they spend some time riding north... with the wind forecast to be coming from the north-east Sunday it will mean they will have a cross/headwind for most of the last 2.5kms. 

Contenders and Favourites

This could very well turn out to be almost the same sort of stage as today's. If a strong break goes, who is going to chase? Astana just controlled today, not chased and no one else seemed remotely interested in working hard, and as a result, the gap became uncatchable on the final climb. We could well see the exact same thing happen tommorrow. The opening 70kms are almost flat along the coast and I think the peloton could well down tools when the break goes and roll along for a while, knowing the finish they face in the stage. It might take a while for the break to go as lots of guys will try to get in it, but once it does go, I think they will build up an unassailable lead again. 

So I'm just going to go for a few likely break candidates and see if we can get a few in the break. Lotto-Soudal missed the break today so should be looking to try to get in the break tomorrow I think. Maxime Monfort and Bart de Clercq finished side by side today in 26th and 27th place, and the day before, Monfort was also in the break that Oliviera won from, so his legs are clearly good. De Clercq is only 80s, but Monfort is 250s, he's worth a small bet. Kristijan Durasek tried to get away on Friday but the early break he was in was reeled back in and his three team-mates managed to get away and took a victory with a great display of team riding. They must be buzzing after that and Durasek could try again tomorrow, he's 150/1 with Ladbrokes. 

Jerome Coppel also was in the break two days ago, he could try again at 150/1. Astana may not want to push hard tomorrow and possibly set up Quintana for another shot at Aru, so they may look to get someone in the break again. Mikel Landa is a likely candidate, but he's only 22/1, but Diego Rosa seems to be riding really well and he could try tomorrow, he's a far more attractive 80/1. Movistar could also try to do the same as today when they got Rojas in the break, I'm tempted by Visconti, but I think the finish will be too hard for him and I don't think he'll win solo. 

What about Sky? They sent Roche and Henao up the road Friday and are keen to defend their team prize, Roche might try again but again, the finish is too hard for him. Kiryienka could try and is the kind of guy to attack on that easier middle section and grind his way to a stage victory. He's 50/1 with Ladbrokes. Darwin Atapuma, Angel Madrazo and Alberto Losada are also likely candidates for the break, but may not be good enough to win. Colombia seem to be getting better as the race goes on, Quintero rode well today, maybe it could be someone like Duarte's turn tomorrow, Torres's on Monday. As much as I'd like to back Dombrowski again, and as much as I would go crazy if he did a De Marchi on me, I think Monday might be a better day for him. Finally, Riccardo Zoidl has been very quiet in this race but surely must be looking to do something sooner or later, he could be a long shot for tomorrow also at a big 200/1.

If they come back, then it looks like Quintana has now become the most likely winner of a stage like this. Movistar have the men to push on and now they see he's feeling better and can put Aru under pressure they could really start to push it on the final climb. It's not really a climb to attack too early on though as the easier sections in the middle could see you reeled back in and a lot of effort to get away before that wasted. Instead, it looks like it will be the same as today where the real action starts only 3-4kms from the top. If so, then Quintana looks like the most likely winner, if the break has been caught. Pozzovivo seems to be riding ok at the moment too, he was only 5" behind Aru today. The steep finish will suit him more than most so he could be one to watch out for too. 

So it's one to watch for in-play, if the gap looks catchable, back Quintana. Majka, Rodriguez and Chaves looked good today, but Aru and especially Quintana looked just that bit better. Chaves might do well on a finish like this too with the steeper gradients up around 10-11%. 

These are just some wild shots, it's impossible to pick any with any degree of certainty, it's just too open and unpredictable at the moment. Also, only Bet365 and Ladbrokes were the only bookies on Oddschecker with odds at 10:20pm, you might get better prices on some of these with other bookies when they do come out. Watch for some more possible bets in the morning if I see anything on Twitter or elsewhere, someone might drop hints that they are keen to get in the break. 

Recommendations -

0.2pts win on Jerome Coppel at 150/1

0.3pts win on Vasil Kiryienka at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Maxime Monfort at 250/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Kristijan Durasek at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts win on Diego Rosa at 80/1 with Ladbrokes

0.1pts win on Riccardo Zoidl at 200/1 with Ladbrokes

Look to back Nairo if the break is looking likely to be caught before the finish.

Matchbets

De Clercq to beat Brambilla - 2pts at 4/7

Monfort to beat Visconti - 2pts at 5/6

Bouet to beat Navarro - 3pts at 4/6

all with Bet365