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Published on Friday, 04 September 2015 23:34

Vuelta Stage 14

Vitoria to Alto Campoo. Fuente del Chivo

Saturday 5th September, 215kms 

A long stage and another summit finish on the Alto Campoo after a roller coaster of a day. 215kms long makes it the longest stage of the race and with over 3,400m of climbing it's going to be a tough day in the saddle again for a weary peloton. Can Aru extend his lead or can his rivals fight back?

Although the road rises gently for most of the stage, it will almost feel flat compared to what they had to get over in Andorra on Monday. The three climbs of the day total elevation comes to 2,070m, whereas the total elevation on the stage is 3,402, meaning that there is still a fair bit of climbing to be done outside of the main climbs of the day - lots of little bumps and long drags.

It should get interesting from the 100km onwards point as they head in to the big smiley-faced shaped part of the route in between the first two climbs. There should then be a 35km drag race to the bottom of the final climb to ensure teams' leaders start the climb at the front of the pack. The final climb is an Especiale climb, but that's more for its distance (over 18kms) and its position as the final climb of the day than its difficulty, although the average gradient of 5.5% doesn't show that the crucial last 4kms or so are the toughest at around 8% average. 

I don't know what I can do to get a winner these days. I named De Marchi, Terpstra and Cam Meyer in my original selections and added Ruben Plaza in the morning and managed to get all four of them in the break of 23 riders. And not one of them could even get a place, let alone look like winning it. A truly abject performance from the break at the end of the day to let Oliviera just ride away from 22 of them. It was possibly a case of "Who the F*** is this guy?" as he rode away from them, experienced guys like Terpstra just assumed they would catch him. Maybe they didn't realise he was Portuguese national TT champion, they probably do now.

Adam Hansen was all talk in the morning about going to go in the break, 23 riders got away and he wasn't one of them, good effort Adam. Not one effort from behind in the last 20kms to really go after Oliveira, I don't know why Cummings even bothered to go in the break, he just sat at the back the whole time like he does when in the peloton. It shows how much they couldn't be arsed at the end of the stage today that a crippled Nicholas Roche almost won the sprint for 2nd, Rojas, Reza and Nocentini couldn't even get up to beat him. Really disappointing to have so many strong riders in the break for us and get nothing out of it. 

The Route

They head further west along the north of Spain, not far from the coast as they leave Vitoria Gastiez and head north-west to Fuente Del Chivo. We're not far at all from the Atlantic coast here and as they leave the Basque Country and head to Cantabria we could see the winds play a part in today's stage - cross winds are forecast to come in from the coast, picking up in the afternoon. 

They are more or less climbing from the start here for the first 120kms, and pass over the first categorised climb of the day at the end of that first section. The 3rd Cat Puerto Estacas de Trueba is 11km long at a gentle 2.9% average gradient, but it is only a warm-up for what's coming. 

Once over the top, with 118kms gone they plunge down to Entrabasmestas, dropping nearly 1000m in 27kms before doubling back on themselves almost to head south and back up in to the hills again to the Cat 1 climb of the Puerto del Escudo. The Escudo is 11.5kms long at a little steeper gradient of 6.4%, but that gradient is a little deceptive though as the first 4kms are almost flat, averaging around 2%, but then it kicks up for the final 7.5kms at a gradient closer to 9.5%, with sections hitting 14 and 15% in places. With 158.5kms gone they go over the top and descend a little before they spend the next 40kms on more or less flat roads as they approach the final climb of the day. 

The Alto Campoo is a painful 18kms long at an average of 5.5%, but again the first 4kms average around 3% and then it stays at around 7-8% for most of the rest of the climb, but does dip down to easier gradients for small parts of it. The last 4kms are a pretty steady gradient, on mostly pretty long straight roads until the final 2kms when it starts to get quite twisty with several switchbacks and steep bends to get around. The finishing straight after the last switchback is only 200m long, but it's unlikely we'll see a group jostling for position.

Contenders and Favourites

The question here again is whether a break can make it or not on a day like today. Reasons why the break can make it? It's a Saturday with a big TV audience, DSs will be giving out plenty of orders to be in the break of the day to get on TV. It's not such a hard opening and rolls along for 100kms, a strong break could build up a decent lead before the important last 100kms. The first climb is relatively easy and they should continue to work together, but maybe weed out any passengers. The big descent to the next climb will mean that they probably will not lose any time for the next 25kms or so. The GC men might be happy to just let the break go, depending on who is in it, and fight it out amongst themselves on the final climb. Sky have lost their main GC threats and may just look to sit in and let Nieve maybe go for it late on to try to move up the GC.

Reasons the break might not make it? It's a long stage at 218kms, and has a very long, tough climb at the end of it that gets harder the higher up it goes. Any riders who are left out front on the final climb are going to be very tired, and they are riding in to a cross/head-wind for those last 5kms. The likes of Astana. although depleted in numbers, are still looking strong and I think will be looking to set up Aru for a stage win on a finish like this, he lost out to his team-mate Landa on Monday when the stage could have been his. Movistar look vulnerable at the moment so they will look to make the stage hard I think to try to tire them out before the final climb and stick the knife in again. Tom Dumoulin is a huge threat still, Astana will be acutely aware that he will take minutes out of Aru in the TT so they will have to continue to put pressure on him and hope that he cracks or they can put more time in to him over the next three stages.

Movistar may look vulnerable, but Nairo has been sick apparently, but now has had the rest day and an easy stage yesterday to try to recover, maybe he will be feeling better and get his boys to push, hoping to attack on this final climb and start to pull back time like he did in the TDF. He has to start sooner rather than later or his race will be over. Sky may have lost their main GC threats in Froome and Roche, but Nieve is still up there and seems to be riding really well. They still have their 'engines' in Kiryienka, Knees, Boswell, Thomas, Puccio and Henao (and maybe Roche if he feels better) so they could still try to shake this stage up and help with the chase in order to set up Nieve for a late attack. Other teams like Katusha (for Purito), Cannondale (for Dombrowski), Colombia (for Torres), Tinkoff-Saxo (for Majka), AG2R (for Pozzovivo) and OGE (for Chaves) could all help out with the chase as there are GC places still to fight for and a stage win up for grabs. 

The way I see it there are only a handful of riders can win tomorrow. I think the factors against the break outweigh the factors for and we will see the GC men fighting out the stage. Astana look strong and are sure to be looking to set up up Fabio Aru for the stage win. He needs to take a lot more time to make sure he isn't under pressure in the TT next week and here is an ideal starting point to start breaking Dumoulin. The finish is perfect for Aru - he can attack as the road enters the steeper final section and can put 30" plus in to Dumoulin who could struggle on the steeper finish.

I think Aru is a hot favourite for the stage, he's clearly the best climber in the race and possibly the only thing that could derail him is his own team-mate again! Mikel Landa hails from Murgia which is only 20 minutes to the north east of the start town of Vitoria-Gasteiz and is sure to be keen to get up the road and impress his friends and family. He is leaving at the end of the season and reportedly defied team orders when he went on the attack and won the stage in Andorra, although judging by the video clip that Astana tweeted to Oleg Tinkov afterwards they all seemed pretty happy at dinner that night clinking Cava glasses! 

I think Astana will start to crank it up on the Cat 1 coming out of the dip with 65kms to go and thin out the group significantly. Some might be able to get back on in the flat section leading to the final climb, but most will not. And once they hit the final climb they might get help from some other teams with stage intentions. But from once they come out of the slightly flatter section near Branavieja I expect Aru to dance away from them and on to stage victory. The 9/4 with Corals is short, but not as short as the 13/8 with PP, but there is some 3/1 on Betfair and I've taken 2pts of that.

Nairo is sick and almost gave up the race today as he was momentarily dropped on the first Cat 3 climb today. He has had a fever and diarrhea but did say tonight that he recovered during the stage and was feeling a lot better at the end of it. Still though, if he has been that sick and was dropped on a Cat 3 climb today he could be in big trouble on the steeper finish tomorrow. Valverde has been struggling a little, whether it's from his crash or fatigue from the Tour or a combination. He might be getting a bit better as the days pass if it was just the crash, but I can't trust him for this tomorrow. 

Rafal Majka looks like the only guy who could possibly challenge Aru, but he was no match for him when he went up the road in Andorra. He might be able to follow him home in 2nd place but he is probably not going to beat him. I was pretty pissed off on Wednesday to read the tweet that Joe Dombrowksi posted that night "Cycling is cruel. Objective: breakaway and go for stage. Reality: Crash at km 0, bash knee, go full up climb 1 and catch broom wagon on top" - I was on him at 100/1 and he admitted that he was hopeful of a stage win... He flew up the final climb though and his power data was pretty impressive for the stage, with a normalised power for the stage of 324W. I think there is a big performance from him yet in this race and with Cannondale having a good day in Alberta today I think Joe will be keen to give it another go, he rolled in way down today, possibly saving the legs for tomorrow. He is 33/1 with most

Rodriguez rode well in Andorra, but that was 'his stage' and he was rescued I think by a stronger looking Daniel Moreno who towed him up the final climb and even dropped him a little on the finish line. He is far too short again at 5/1, I'd rather be on Moreno at 40/1. Nieve, Pozzovivo, Chaves - they are all capable of a top 10 but I don't think they'll win either, they haven't shown that they have the power like Aru. Dumoulin could grind his way to another top 10 finish and may not lose much time, but I've a feeling there's a bad day coming for him. Rodolfo Torres rode really well on the stage in Andorra too, looks like his legs are coming around after his virus, he finished in 13th place, towing up Quintana. Maybe tomorrow might not be the best stage for him, Monday could be the day to strike with him. 

Possible breakaway candidates? Sky tried today with a surprise move with Henao and Roche and they were rewarded with a 3rd place for Roche and they both moved back up 5 places. Could tomorrow be a day for Vasil Kiryienka to give it a go? The big engine might like this stage, but 40/1 isn't a great price, I was hoping for 80s or bigger. Bart de Clercq has been saying that he is going to go stage hunting now that the is well out of the GC running, he is 80/1 for tomorrow. Alessandro de Marchi was in the break today, but he really didn't work that hard, he could try again, but possibly he might take it easy tomorrow and go again in a day or two. Darwin Atapuma, Louis Meintjes and Cyril Gautier could also try to go in the break tomorrow, but I'm going to leave them I think and just focus on Fab and Joe tomorrow. 

Recommendations -

2pts win on Fabio Aru at 3/1 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 33/1 with various 

Matchbets

Majka to beat Nieve and Aru to beat Rodriguez - 2pts on the double at 11/10 with Bet365

Bart de Clercq to beat Kenny Elissonde - 2pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes