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Published on Thursday, 03 September 2015 22:03

Vuelta Stage 13

Calatayud to Tarazona

Friday 4th September, 177kms 

Friday, the 13th stage. Will it be an unlucky stage 13 today for someone? There has been a fair amount on bad luck and misfortune already in this race, just ask Peter Sagan, Sérgio Paulinho, Chris Froome, Dan Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Nacer Bouhanni and all the guys who have had to abandon for various reasons. 

And with over 70kms of descending in this stage, possibly on wet roads, we may just see a few more crashes today. Let's hope the roads aren't too dangerous and we don't get any more incidents. This looks like a day that a breakaway could succeed - with three hard stages to come the GC men might ask their teams to save some energy for the battles ahead. The profile looks good for a breakaway victory too with the first 10kms going uphill and then nearly 50kms of rolling, climbing roads before a 20km descent takes them to the final 5kms where they'll have a tail-wind to help them. If they can get over the final climb with a minute or more they might be hard to peg back. 

I don't know what to say about today's stage, it was a total mess. Degenkolb conspired to throw away yet another win and I'm getting pretty sick of him screwing up now. They made a total mess of the lead-out at the end of the stage, Luca Mezgec inexplicably doing a lead out on one side of the road, while Degenkolb was getting himself boxed in behind the Lotto-JumboNL guys and Daryl Impey on the other side of the road. Drucker also was missing a proper leadout at the end and struggled to get through the traffic too. 

Danny Van Poppel was backed today and delivered the good despite a puncture with 10km to go, the organisers turning a blind eye to the motor pacing help he got to help him get back in to the peloton. I mentioned Daryl Impey and discounted him, he came incredibly close to winning at a price of something like 80/1. At least the one match-bet landed with Drucker beating Sbaragli who didn't have as good a day as the last time he sprinted. Incredibly frustrating though with Degenkolb, I really can't understand how they screwed that up so badly, be was being matched at 1.7 or so in the last few kilometres as he really should have been winning that sprint. And it doesn't get any easier to pick a winner in tomorrow's stage. 

The Route

We move a little further west along the north of Spain to the town of Tarazona, famous for its old bullfighting arena and human pyramids. The stage starts in the town of Catalyud and heads north-east for 20kms before taking a left turn and heading north-west for the next 70kms to Olvega where it then starts to loop around to the north-east again to start on the final section of the stage around Tarazona. Along the way they climb for more or less 50kms as they enter the Parque Natural del Moncayo. 

First up, after 45kms they start the Cat 3 Alto Collado de Oseja, an 8.2km long climb at an average of just 3.7%, it shouldn't cause too many problems. A short 3km descent and they start the next climb of the day, the Alto de Beraton. This one is a bit more difficult, a Cat 1 climb of 10.9kms at 4.7% average. They then descend for 50kms as they arch around to Torrellas and head south-east to Vera de Moncayo for the intermediate sprint after 135kms and almost immediately start the final climb of the day. 

The Alto del Moncayo is another longish climb at 8.5kms at an average of 4.5%, it could be one last chance to shake off some sprinters before a fast dash towards the finish. After the crest of the climb there is another little bit of climbing before they start the final descent, which lasts for 20kms. 5kms on the flat and then they meet a little rise with 2.5kms to go and it goes on for 1500m at 3-4% before the final kilometre flattens out again. The final kilometres are very straight though, so if it does come down to a bunch sprint it should be a nice, safe, fast sprint. 

The weather forecast isn't great for the day though with rain forecast in the morning, getting heaviest up to 3pm local time. There will be a slight wind from the north-east, making it a tailwind for the sprint. 

Contenders and Favourites

I think the break has a good chance of making it today, but it's not an easy stage and not an easy task to try to pick who will get in the break. There are a lot of tired riders and there are some tough stages to come in the next three days. The likely candidates will need to be able to climb well and have big engines to hold off the chasing pack over the last 30kms or so. There are plenty of teams without a stage victory so far and plenty of teams who don't have a rider capable of winning the sprint so expect the opening 30kms or so of this stage to be action packed and it could take a while for the break to go. 

I think it's a day for small stakes though, this stage could go any way, it could be a break, it could be a sprint, if it is a sprint, it should be Degenkolb's but can that hill 2.5kms to go scupper his chances?

Niki Terpstra could try again, he'll like this rolling sort of course - none of the climbs are too hard and the finish would suit a late solo attack from him. Even if it came to a sprint from a break he could thin the group out on that final hill and is capable of a pretty decent sprint too. At the time of writing, Bet365 have him at a very short price of 14/1, Paddy Power somehow have managed to price up the stage without him in the betting.. But Corals have come out with 20/1 just now and that's worth a go.

Adam Hansen is another likely candidate that will be on many people's radar's again for this stage. The Aussie has been active but hasn't got away in early breaks, having to try something in the closing kilometres, but with no joy. Lotto-Soudal haven't a stage win yet and Van der Sande will not be winning on a finish like this you'd think, so why not let Adam have a go? He also is ridiculously short though at 14/1 too, and is as low as 12/1.. looks like Adam certainly is fancied to give it a go tomorrow. Edit: 10:37am - Lotto-Soudal posted this on their facebook page this morning, basically saying that they expect a break, they don't think there will be much of a chase and Adam Hansen sounds like he is really up for it. He was 18.5 on Betfair which is a bit better than the 14/1 best price out there, so I took a point of that to see if he gets in the break.

I'm thinking that Omar Fraile might try to get in the break just to hoover up some easy points on the three climbs of the day to make his KOM jersey almost secure, but I don't think he'll be winning the stage, he would probably ease off once his job was done with 23kms to go and be happy to roll in. Frequent breakaway guy Txurruka has gone home, I'm not sure any of the other Caja-Rural are capable of winning on a day like this either, except possibly Jose Goncalves who has been pretty active and could win a sprint amongst a break of non-sprinters. 20/1 for a guy who has only won once in his career in the Tour of Portugal earlier this year? Not for me.

With Froome and Roche out of the GC picture, Geraint Thomas, Vasil Kiryienka or Sergio Henao could try to get away now. Thomas and Kiryienka were backed today I noticed but I didn't think that today was the day for them. Thomas could be one to try a go tomorrow in the break, he's 40/1 with Sportingbet. Alessandro de Marchi was one I was interested to see how he developed in this race, he didn't start great but has started to get in to it a bit now and went up the road a few days ago in a break that always looked doomed to succeed. This sort of route will suit him I think and he could well get in the break of the day. Once again his price is very short, the bookies are really taking the piss with their prices for tomorrow, but he could be worth a small bet with Ladbrokes at 25/1.

Another example of how shit the bookies prices are for tomorrow is Steven Cummings - he was 100/1 for today's stage, he's best price 40/1 for tomorrow. Has he really more than double the chance of winning tomorrow than today?? He should be 100/1 again as far as I'm concerned. Sylvain Chavanel is a guy I'd have been backing for tomorrow not so long ago, but he really does seem to have faded badly this year, we've barely seen him at all in this race so far. 25/1 is again about 1/4 of he probably should be. 

Others that could get involved are Kristijan Durasek for Lampre-Merida, he was in the break a week ago and did ok, he could try again tomorrow and is a decent price at 150s with Ladbrokes. Finally, OGE could look to get someone in the break too, Cam Meyer could give it a go at 80/1 with Sportingbet. Not a day for large stakes at all, some small bets scattered around could hopefully get us some in the break. 

Edit: Following a reply back from Lampre Merida to a tweet asking would Durasek be going up the road today and they saying that maybe Ruben Plaza might, I added a bet on him at 33/1 with WillHill in play.

Recommendations:

0.2pts win on Cam Meyer at 80/1 with Sportingbet

0.25pts win on Kristijan Durasek at 150/1 with Ladbrokes

0.4pts win on Geraint Thomas at 40/1 with Sportingbet

0.5pts win on Niki Terpstra at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 25/1 with Ladbrokes 

Added 10:37am - Adam Hansen - 1pt at 18.5 on Betfair 

Added 12:30pm - Ruben Plaza - 0.2pts each-way at 33/1 with WillHill in play. 

Matchbets

Serry to beat Montaguti - 2pts at 5/6 with 365

De Marchi to beat Plaza - 2pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes