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Published on Wednesday, 02 September 2015 22:23

Vuelta Stage 12

Escaldes - Engordany. Andorra to Lleida

Thursday 3rd September, 173kms 

Well, how do you follow a stage like that in Andorra with 5,000m of climbing?! With a day that is downhill for almost all of its 173kms, that's how. I say almost all downhill, there is the rather sizeable interruption of their downhill coast to Lleida of the Cat 2 climb of the Coll de Boixols, which at 15.8kms long will test some very tired legs.

Once over the top of the climb of the Boixols though there are still 120kms to go, so most guys who have been dropped could probably get back on again. A very similar stage to this was run in 2010 and it was won in a sprint by Mark Cavendish from Tyler Farrar. I expect it to finish similarly tomorrow with the best sprinter in the race winning a bunch sprint.

What a dramatic stage that was today - starting in the opening kilometres when Chris Froome inexplicably crashed in to the roadside barrier and injured himself so much he was soon under pressure and out the back door. He did incredibly well just to finish the stage judging by how he was limping around after the finish, but he lost 7'19" to Aru. Aru stormed up the climb in pursuit of his team-mate Landa and they finished 1-2 on the day. Not a great result for the stage bets, but the main Match bet in Torres landed as he comfortably beat Schleck while finishing in a solid 13th place, ahead of Quintana. Dombrowski also rode well, getting better as the stage went on, he finished in 15th place to win his match bet too.

Not a great day for Quintana, finishing nearly 3 minutes behind Aru and slipping down to 9th place. It's going to take something pretty special for him to win it now. The Aru bet for the overall look pretty good now though, he is as short as 2/5 to win. It was a good day for the Astana for the team classification bets too, bets I was getting pretty worried about.. they are back in to odds on again, and with Froome and Roche crocked, I think it's only Movistar that will possibly deny them. 

The Route

They descend away from the monster stage that was in Andorra, with the first 36kms of the stage all downhill. Then suddenly they meet the Cat 2 climb of the Coll de Boixols and after such a torturous day the day before, this climb is really going to hurt, especially as they are going to hit it at high speed you'd think. At 16.8kms long, it's one of the longest climbs of the race, but it averages just 5%. And with no real reason to rip it up the climb from a GC point of view, it might possibly be taken at a far more sedate pace. 

Once over the top there's a short descent for about 8kms before a little kick up to the uncategorised climb of the Coll de Faidella, then it's on to a 50km descent before another little climb to get over, in the Serra del Montsec national park with 120kms gone, and then it's all downhill for the next 43kms to the finish. The roads to the finish inside the last 5kms are pretty straight and wide, with just a few roundabouts to negotiate, one of which comes with 800m to go. Once past that though it is dead straight to the finish. The last kilometre is slightly uphill though so it looks a real power mans sprint.

Contenders and Favourites

This stage should finally see John Degenkolb get his hands in the air after far too many seconds recently. It should be perfect for him and G-A, the Cat 2 climb is long, but not hard, he got over much harder on stage 10. What we did see on stage 10 though was it took a lot out of him and his team and he got swallowed up at the finish and started from an impossible position in the final 200m. What he did show though was once he got going he was the fastest sprinter there by a country mile, he just burst past about 5 guys in about 20m. If he can be put in the right place by G-A this time, there is no way that he will be beaten I think. 

Easier said than done though right? First off, G-A will have to control the break all day and it looks like it will probably become a drag race for 110kms once over the big climb of the day. There is rain forecast for the morning but should start to dry up by the afternoon and there will be a slight head wind as they head towards the finish in Lleida, which should give the break of the day some trouble. And there's the other problem, the break of the day. A lot of guys will be dropped early on the Andorran stage, so will be rolling home in the Grupetto. As long as they go hard enough to stay within the time limit they will effectively be having a semi rest day and there will be a few guys who will have this stage in mind for that reason. The GC teams will have had a hard day in Andorra, and that includes G-A who were trying to preserve Dumoulin's place in the GC, will they have the energy left to pull a break back and then lead out Degenkolb?

It's going to be a big ask for them, I'm not sure how much help they'll get in chasing the break, who will be willing and able to help them? MTN Qhubeka should, they won't have had any GC stresses to worry about in Andorra, Louis Meintjes just did his own thing and rode a very solid race. The rest of the team had a tough time in the mountains, but should have got through them relatively well and could be ready to support Sbaragli in his attempt to win his second sprint in three days. He showed all the guile and class of a seasoned expert in surfing the wheels and picking the right wheel to go with in Tosh Van der Sande, and he did enough to hold off a charging Degenkolb. He has a good chance of making the podium at least again if it comes down to a sprint, but I don't fancy backing him at 8/1 for today with Ladbrokes, the 16/1 with PP is a bit more appealing, but I'm going to skip it.

JJ Rojas has had a mixed race so far with three top tens in the bunch sprints. Third in that sprint in Castellon, I think he got that close purely because of the lack of proper sprinters left in the bunch. He hasn't won a race since the first stage of the Tour of Qatar back at the start of February and is generally a 5th to 10 place kind of man. There may be very few sprinters left in the race, but I'm not interested in the 25/1 on him either. 

Tosh Van der Sande came pretty close on Monday but still lost out on a podium spot by a tiny margin to Rojas. He seemed to get everything right in terms of positioning, but maybe started his sprint a little too soon. He should have learned from that though and should try to sit in a little longer this time. Lotto-Soudal don't have anyone in the GC and their main GC men were way off the pace today so weren't pushed too hard. They should have some guys who are willing and able to help out G-A in the chase and lead out Tosh for the sprint. It might mean that Adam Hansen will have to ease back on the attack plans for today though!

BMC still have Jean-Pierre Drucker in the race and he has done well in some of the sprints so far, taking two 4th places earlier in the race. In stage three he was 4th behind Sagan, Bouhanni and Degenkolb, and now Sagan and Bouhanni have gone home. In stage 5, Ewan and Sagan also beat him, along with Degenkolb, and they've gone home too, so going on those form lines, Jempy comes second to Degenkolb tomorrow! He's not as short as I thought he'd be, he's 25/1 with PP, he's as short as 16s with 365, that's around the price I thought he'd be. He offers a little each-way value to see if he can chase home Degenkolb, or possibly go one better. 

Now that Caleb Ewan has gone home, OGE have no out-and-out sprinter left in the race, but it was interesting to see Daryl Impey give it a go on Monday, taking 7th place in the sprint. Normally you'd have expected Gerrans to have been there if Impey was there, but he seems to be recovering and regaining form slower than I expected. He probably has both eyes on the upcoming races across in Canada, including the World's in Richmond. Again, like Rojas though, Impey was up there because of the nature of the stage, I don't think he'll be getting closer than 7th next time.

The only other two riders I can see getting close are Danny Van Poppel for Trek and Tom Van Asbroeck for LottoNL-Jumbo. Van Poppel has had a nightmare so far, not getting involved in a single sprint, can he get close enough at the finish tomorrow to get involved? Given his record so far in the race I'm surprised he's so short, the 12/1 is a joke price, even the 22/1 doesn't really grab me. Van Asbroeck has been getting involved but hasn't come better than 10th place so far, I think 5th to 10th again for him too.

If there is a chance of a break making it, look for the likes of Steve Cummings who seemed intent on taking it as easy as possible today, 125/1 for him for tomorrow. Niki Terpstra could also try something, he has been active lately and could try to get in the break again tomorrow. He's 40/1.

I think if Degenkolb doesn't win this tomorrow he may as well go home.. he will not get an easier chance to win a Grand Tour stage and he really should win. He's very short though at 6/5 best price, but he is 5/4 on Betfair and that's worth taking. Jempy Drucker can chase him home. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on John Degenkolb at 5/4 with Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Jempy Drucker at 25/1 with PP

0.2pts win on Steve Cummings at 125/1 with various

0.4pts win on Niki Terpstra at 40/1 with various 

Matchbets

Drucker to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at evens with 365