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Published on Sunday, 30 August 2015 23:50

Vuelta Stage  10

Valencia to Castellón

Monday 31st August, 146.6kms 

is it time to start taking Tom Dumoulin's challenge in this Vuelta really seriously? He was sensational again today, to cap a magnificent week for him and should go in to the rest day as the leader of the race. He was 1000/1 with Bet365 two weeks ago, he's 8/1 4th favourite now. And he is probably the best time triallist in the race.

He was incredible today though, reeling in and passing Chris Froome who looked destined for a surprise stage win, not just a surprise in relation to his Vuelta up until now, but the fact he was dropped at the bottom of the climb too. Valverde attacked, Quintana attacked, Majka attacked, Roche attacked, Rodriguez attacked.. it was just crazy, riders all over the place. In the melee, Chaves finally cracked and lost 59" to Dumoulin. 

I say incredible, but why isn't there the uproar we would get with other riders doing what he did today? We all hope he is of the 'new generation' and he is clean of course, but what if Froome had won that stage today? It was inredible enough to see him claw his way back on and then whirl his way away from the front of the GC group, but Dumoulin not only caught him when it seemed impossible (I'm guessing Froome was matched at 1.01 on Betfair) but passed him and put 2" in to him. It is an example of the double standards and hypocrisy in the sport that Froome would have been slaughtered but Dumoulin is hailed as a superstar. So Dumoulin is now in the GC race according to the odds, but I can't see him staying there when the roads really get long and steep. If he is still in the running after Andorra, then he has a massive chance and we could be seeing the launch of a potential Grand Tour multiple winner if he keeps this up. 

So it's all been a bit crazy - Froome was 8/1, he's now 7/4 favourite in places. Quintana is still favourite with most but as big as 9/4 with some. Aru didn't look as great today as he did a few days ago and Majka, although potentially looking like the stage winner for us with 1200m to go, faded and ended up 5th. Rodriguez continues to let down his backers, nearly every penny that was matched on Betfair today was on him, he was heavily backed.. He looked nailed on to win it with 300m to go, but faded also and only ended up 3rd. So TomDum leads by almost a minute, but it's all pretty tight after that with just 21" separating Rodriguez in 2nd and Froome in 8th. Rodriguez in 2nd, where did that come out of!? Yep, he's right in the mix.. Can he hold on and win if TomDum fades? He's still as big as 20/1, which looks a massive price if he can hang on to a podium spot. 

The Route

It looks like a stage perfect for a breakaway with a tough start to the stage that sees them go over a Cat 3 climb inside the first 28kms, and they will have been climbing from the flag drop. Then it's rolling roads for the next 50kms or so, before they hit flat roads for about 45kms as they return back towards the coast. They pass the finish town of Castellon with 100km gone and go off out on a loop that takes them along the coast to the clubbers resort of Benicasim, where the intermediate sprint is located shortly after face the main challenge of the day. 

With 121.6kms gone they start on the Cat 3 climb of the Alto del Desierto de las Palmas, a 7km long climb that averages 5.6%, so nothing too difficult. It's a pretty steady gradient, but some of the turns rise in to steeper gradients. Once over the top there's a very fast and tricky descent back down towards Castellon for 10kms and once on the flat roads again there's just 12kms to go. The approach to the finish is dead flat almost, but there are lots of roundabouts to get through, the last one of which comes with just 600m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

A day for the break I think and I won't even go in to trying to pick a winner from the sprinters, as I don't think it will come to a sprint (can always try to back someone in play if it looks like the break won't make it). 

Who would want to work to set up a sprint for Degenkolb to win? There's no Bouhanni, Stuyven, Sagan, so none of those teams are going to work. OGE will probably not work as it's unlikely Ewan will get over the Cat 2 climb with the leaders, and they will need to save energy for next week - Chaves started to feel the pressure today. It's going to be a free-for-all at the start I think and it will be strong men/climbers who will look to get in the break on the early climb. I won't go in to too much detail trying to pick each candidate, these are lottery ticket longshots and are just guys I think might try to get in the break. 

Adam Hansen - no 100/1 available on him this time around, 25/1 is the best available. He came very close to winning it for us a few days ago, he might fancy a stage like this and could solo away to victory on the run to the line.

Thomas de Gendt - trying him again as he is sure to go one of these days and we need to be on him! 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

Ruben Plaza - A similar profile to the stage he won in the Tour this year in to Gap, it had a Cat 2 climb just before the finish too on the famous Col de Manse, which averaged 5.6% for 9kms. 50/1 with a few.

Someone from Caja Rural - but which one?! Pello Bilbao has looked active, as has Goncalves, Txurruka and Madrazo, maybe it will be David Arroyo's turn tomorrow? He was the second best finisher for CJ today, in 37th place, so not a bad run. He's 200/1 with PP, the only bookie who has priced him up.

Someone from Colombia? Not Torres, he's recovering from a virus I've been told and plans to make his moves next week. Duque is past it, Rubiano and Duarte crashed in the last two days so maybe not them. Maybe Valencia, but he hasn't been priced up! The riders that are priced up don't really appeal to me though. 

How about one of the Etixx boys? They were active today with Maes and Serry in the break, and Keisse, Terpstra and Velits have been active. I can't decide who of them could go though, I'm leaning towards Terpstra, but I'm afraid he'll get left behind on the final climb. 

Gio Visconti could be given permission to go in the break today, he would like a stage like this and with the rest day coming, Movistar might let him have a go. They seemed to be working for him in the stage in to Murcia two days ago and he ended up in 4th place, if he can get in the break of the day, he'd probably beat every other guy there in the sprint, if it comes to it. He's 40/1 with Ladbrokes, worth a win only shot I think. 

Cofidis will probably try to get a man in the break, now they have no Bouhanni to be looking after. Julien Simon is going well, took 7th in the sprint to Murcia two days ago, but he's not afraid to go up the road on the attack, even on hilly days. In the Tour, he finished 6th on the stage to Cauterets, he was in the break all day and they were just passed by Majka and Martin towards the finish. The stage had a HC, Cat 1 and three Cat 1 climbs! He's 50/1 with a few. 

Finally, a Europcar man - take your pick, but the one I'm going to go for is Cyril Gautier, he finished 6th on that stage to Mende won by Steve Cummings which had a similar sort of profile to this one and he won't mind the Cat 2 climb near the finish. He's 66/1 with PP.

But of course there are so many other riders who could get involved, I could name another 30 or 40. It's not a day for mad stakes or big expectations, just a few small bets at big prices for an interest. 

Recommendations:

0.25pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 40/1 with PP

0.35pts each-way on Adam Hansen at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 50/1 with PP

0.3pts win on Giovanni Visconti at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Cyril Gautier at 66/1 with PP

 0.3pts each-way on Julien Simon at 50/1 with PP

Matchbets

Reza to beat Bilbao - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Simon to beat Van der Sande - 1pt at 11/8 with Bet365