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Published on Saturday, 29 August 2015 23:08

Vuelta Stage  9

Torrevieja to Cumbre del Sol. Benitatxell

Sunday 30th August, 168.3kms 

120km of boring nothingness, then this stage gets interesting for the last 45kms. Well, that's at least what it looks like on paper, but those 120kms are spent hugging the coastline and the winds could make this stage more interesting than it looks like at first glance. 

Where do you even start with today's stage, it was absolutley bonkers. Dan Martin, Kris Boeckmans, Nacer Bouhanni and Tejay Van Garderen have all gone home after an innocuous looking crash caused havoc. There were crashes everywhere in the last 30kms as the descent caused all sorts of problems, as I suggested it would in yesterday's preview. It looked like it would be a penalty kick for Sagan with none of the recognised sprinters there - Degenkolb had been dropped as I said he would, Bouhanni was already out of the race. But rather than wait and take an easy ride to the finish, Sagan decided to attack inside the last 9kms and was swerving all over the road.

The headlines say Sagan was taken out by a motorbike rider, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sagan swerved violently at the time from one side of the road to the other as the moto came past, he seemed to be all over the road. With Martin out of the race, Roche has moved in to 3rd place overall and continued to show how great his legs are with a 10th place on today's stage. It looked like we were on to a winner with either Valverde or Sagan for the sprint finish, but Valverde disappointed, not making an effort to get up in the sprint, despite attacking with about 10km to go. Jasper Stuyven was the surprice winner today, taking the victory in a strange bunch finish. Adam Hansen gave us a good run for our money, attacking inside 2kms to go, only just fading inside the last 350m. We finally landed a match bet clean sweep with Stuyven and Dumoulin doing the busines. Incredibly, Stuyven has abandoned the race tonight after being diagnosed with a fractured scaphoid, it didn't seem to hold him back in that sprint!

The Route

They're back on the coast again as they head north-east along the Costa Blanca coastline of Valencia. They stick to the coastline for almost all of the opening 120kms and they hit a maximum height of just 40m along the way. It could be incredibly boring for the opening three hours, but it could be a little bit interesting if the winds whip up along the coast. The forecast is for it to be hot again, but not brutally hot, around 30°, but there is a north-easterly wind of between 16-19kmph forecast for the afternoon. This will make it a head/cross-wind for most of the day, which will make it hard for a break to stay away and also could see some splits if some teams look to take advantage of it.

The stage gets interesting in the last 43kms though as they reach Moraira and start on the finishing circuit. They go over the Alto de Puig Lorenca twice in the last 45kms, the second time up it they go 800m further up the hill to the finishing line. They hit the climb for the first time after 123.1kms, and it's quite a nasty shock when they hit this wall of a climb after such a flat day up until then. 

The first passage is 3.3kms long and averages 8.9% and as they go through the 1km to go banner, instead of turning up towards the finish with 800m to go they go straight on and out on to a loop for the next 38kms, 27kms of which is a gentle descent down to Bahia de Jávea, although the first 3kms of the descent off the Puig Llorenca are quite steep and tricky.

Once through the intermediate sprint they go over a little lump with 8kms to go and then descend down to the start of the Puig Llorenca again. This time the final climb is 4.2kms at an average of 8.9% again, they turn off the road of the first passage with 800m to go and through two hairpin bends before a straight run for the last 500m. The first two kilometres are not so hard, averaging around 5%, but it gets really gets steep between kilometre 2 and 3, hitting 19% in parts, before a brief pause of about 100m at 2%. The last kilometre averages around 10% and it's a pretty hard finish to the stage. 

Contenders and Favourites

So yet another uphill finish, this time a Cat 1 climb with gradients hitting 19%, but up to 26% in ramps on the inside of bends. There's no way it's going to be a sprinters finish with those sorts of gradients, but also Dan Martin is no longer in the race on a stage that looks ideal for him.

So who wins now? Well it looks like the usual suspects again I'm afraid and that's the way the bookies have priced it up. I don't think the break will get much of a lead and they should be reeled in before the finish. Joaquim Rodriguez is the favourite at 4/1, again a ridiculous price as I have been highlighting here for days now. Ok, he might win, like he won out of the blue on the Mur de Huy, but I can't be backing him at 4/1. Alejandro Valverde the same, he's a similar price and he has mostly left us down on the days we have supported him. He could, and probably will win, but 5/1 doesn't grab me. 

Esteban Chaves at least looks like he could win the stage - he has been magnificent so far in this race and I am really loving him and his post-race interviews, he's a joy to watch. He is taking the leadership role with utmost respect for the jersey and is fighting really well to protect his lead, but never seems ruffled or under pressure, even after the crash today that saw him having to chase back on. He looks the real deal and will win many more races in his career. As for tomorrow, why not. The best form of defense is attack as Tsun Tsu might have said, so why not go on the attack again tomorrow and steal some more time - he certainly looks to have the legs for it and at 9/2, although it's now ridiculously short, he looks like a solid bet for the podium at worst. 

Daniel Moreno has been going well, but I'm not sure I can trust him again at just 7/1 with PP, the 14/1 with Bet 365 is a bit more like it. Fabio Aru looked lively on that last mountain stage, will he be capable of trying something similar on this stage at just 10/1? I'm not sure. Pozzovivo could get involved, but he has so far been on the fringes a little, I think he might be waiting for the bigger climbs to make his moves. Same goes for Nairo Quintana, I think he is still biding his time and waiting for the big stages, he won't gain much time for a lot of effort tomorrow. 

Rafal Majka at 16/1 looks an interesting one, he has seemed lively and punchy and could well try an attack tomorrow. With Sagan possibly retiring soon after his incident with the moto today, maybe it's time T-S focused all their efforts on Majka who seems to have good legs. At 16/1 he could be worth a shot for tommorow. Other than that, it's hard to make a case for any of the rest to win it, although of course, there is a good chance of a surprise stage winner. Dumoulin could go well, he seems to have great legs, as could Nico Roche. Louis Meintjes, Goncalves and others like them could have a go but I don't have any confidence in backing any of them right now, I think I'll stick with the form horses Chaves and Majka. 

Recommendations:

1pt win at 9/2 on Esteban Chaves at 9/2 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Rafal Majka at 16/1 with PP 

Matchbets

Nothing jumps out at me so far, will add some in the morning before the stage starts if I see any that interest me.

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