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Published on Thursday, 27 August 2015 23:00

Vuelta Stage 7

Jódar to La Alpujarra

Fri 28th August, 191.1kms 

So we've had Peter Velits, Esteban Chaves, Tom Dumoulin and Esteban Chaves again in the Red Jersey so far in this race, but this is the first real test for the GC men and pre-race favourites. We've already lost Vincenzo Nibali to the stickiest of sticky bottles, and Aru hasn't exactly been lighting up the road so far.

In fact, none of the GC men have really set the road alight so far, it's all been a bit of shadow boxing and breaking the legs in to the effort for the first 6 stages. It has been interesting in that no GC team has really taken the bull by the horns and tried to make it a hard race yet, Movistar, Sky, Astana, BMC seem to be content with letting their men just work their way in to the race slowly, like as if they are all not quite at 100% yet (which I sort of expected anyway).

Nairo attacked on St2 and it looked like he was sending out a strong signal to all his rivals, causing some trigger-happy sorts to back him down to evens on Betfair, but he faded towards the top. Chris Froome has paced himself, has not made any moves so far, but apparently seems to be carrying a little extra weight. He was sharp on St5 though to be right at the front and the right side of the split that caught Quintana and Chaves and so far has stealthly marked all the GC moves. Again today he was right up there in 7th place, behind Valverde and Rodriguez and ahead of Quintana and Landa.

Alejandro Valverde has looked good, taking a great stage win on St4, he sits in 5th place at the moment. I was disappointed with him today though as he reverted to type and sucked wheels instead of chasing after Chaves today, he was waiting for someone else to do the chasing, looking around him. It looked like a lack of respect to Chaves too, as if he wasn't worried about his attack. With two stage wins under his belt now, maybe it's time that the others started to sit up and take notice, he could be a danger to the GC, he is riding so well.

Aru has been a bit invisible, but still sits in 10th place, a decent start by him and is just a handful of seconds off Froome and Quintana. He said today that he has been sore from his crash on St2 and it has been hard for him in the last stages, but that he is looking forward to starting the proper climbs now. Landa is just one place behind him in 11th, followed by Nieve, Van Garderen and Pozzovivo who make up the next four places, so it is all set up nicely for the first big challenge of the race.

I missed today's stage, but couldn't believe it when I heard that Dan Martin had blown another stage win, beaten by a man I said would be the bet of the Vuelta if he managed to win at 20/1.. What a Vuelta Chaves, and indeed OGE, is having so far, with 3 stage wins out of 6 and the leader's jersey for 4 stages so far. He was fantastic again today and is quickly becoming a fans favourite with his huge smile, pleasant demeanour and of course, killer legs.

Dan Martin was absolutely flying in the last kilometre and only lost by 4", very bloody annoying that he let it too late again, and even that he didn't have a single team-mate that could try to chase Chaves for him. What exactly were the likes of Talansky, Dombrowski and Cardoso doing? Well actually, Talansky wasn't going to be much help to him, he finished in 111th place, more than 5 minutes behind, maybe he's waiting for tomorrow. No one else wanted to chase, Valverde, Rodriguez and the rest were just looking at each other so Dan just went for it and had to do it all by himself.

The Route

Not a lot to say about this route for about 170kms as we head south out of Jodar and the province of Jaen and in to the mountainous province of Granada. They start by heading south for 78kms until they reach La Peza on rolling, but generally flat roads and they meet the northern slopes of the Parque National de Sierra Nevada. As they head south-west they go over a little Cat 3 lump, the Puerto de Los Blancares, it's long enough at 9kms, but averages an easy 3.3%.

They then arch in a horse-shoe shape around the mountain before tackling it from the south-west for the last 20kms or so. The Alto de Capileira is their first finish at altitude in the race, rising to 1,565m above sea level. The climb is officially 18.7kms long, but they will have been climbing for a few kilometres before that. The climb is tough - the official gradient for the climb is just 5%, but that's deceptive - there's a 5km section in the middle that is almost flat, seriously affecting the average gradient. The first 3kms average around 5%. The next kilometre is around 8.2% average, then then next 5kms average around 0.5%. It then kicks up for the final test - nearly 9kms at an average of closer to 7.3%, with a section near the top that hits 14%.

It's the first finish at altitude, but it's also the first really long climb of the race, at nearly 20kms long. The first opportunity to see the climbers squads in action and who really has a chance of winning this race or not. The last 8kms will be a real test and the last 5kms are a very steady gradient all the way to the line so it could be really strung out if the GC teams really put the hammer down. There shouldn't be too large time gaps between the top men, but it should start to see a bit of order put to the GC finally after a week of racing.  

Contenders and Favourites

A break could make it today too, it's another rolling profile that starts climbing in the first 30kms and then rolls along up and down for the next 30kms, taking in a Cat 3 climb on the way. A strong break could go and build up a considerable lead, and if there are some good climbers in the group and they have 4 or 5 minutes starting the final climb they might just make it. From the possible breakaway candidates, look to the likes of Ruben Plaza, one of the Caja Rural guys like Bilbao, Pierre Rolland, Mikael Cherel etc. - anyone who is more than 4 minutes down on GC could be let go.

But with this being the first real chance for the GC men to test each other and with the time gaps between them so tight still, I think the break will be pulled back and it will be a stage fought out amongst the GC men.

Of course, Valverde is top of the betting in the early prices that are out, ranging from 10/3 with PP to 5/1 with others. I'm not sure about Valverde at the moment - seemed more interested today in marking the likes of Rodriguez and the rest than going after Chaves, he didn't want to do any work and immediately jumped on the wheels of anyone who did try to give chase. He excelled in the uphill finish on stage 4 though, and we all know in an uphill finish on a stage finish like this he will be hard to beat. He knows these climbs like the back of his hand, when he goes away to train for Grand Tours he heads to the Sierrra Nevada, this is one of the climbs he uses for training. He is a pretty strong podium contender, but 5/1 is a bit tight.

What about his team-mate Quintana? He has been either bluffing or has been below peak fitness so far, he couldn't stay with Roche's group on St2 and wasn't able to react to Chaves either today. Of course, this is very much more his kind of day and if he goes on the attack like he did on the last few stages of the Tour then there will be few who can stay with him. Maybe he has been saving it all for this first big test. It can take him a few days to get going sometimes in Tours, so he is probably pretty pleased that the racing has been a bit more steady than the madness of the opening week of the TDF. It should be just about the right time for him now, 7 stages in, to be starting to feel good and should do something to test his rivals I think.

The first man he will be looking to test of course will be his arch-rival from the Tour and his rival in the betting for the race, Chris Froome. Froome has been pretty anonymous also in this race so far, and the limelight has been taken off him a little by the fabulous start to the race by Nico Roche. It's something that Sky and Chris are probably pleased about, whether it has been by luck or design. Reports coming out of Spain at the start of the race were that Froome was carrying a little extra weight than normal, that his veins were not quite so bulging and visible as they are during the Tour. So far though he has ridden smartly and just behind the stage winners, mainting a good position in stage finishes but not going full gas to try to improve a few places. 

Froome has a history of making his mark early in stage races, of winning the first key mountain stages and sending out a big signal to his rivals - he did it again this year in the Tour, winning on La Pierre St Martin. If he wants to do the same tomorrow then he needs to up his game and I think it could be difficult for him to win this one as comprehensively as he did in the Tour. He doesn't have the same shape and I think his competition will actually be harder than in the TDF, where only Quintana was able to muster some sort of response and he wasn't 100% at the time. 

I said it yesterday that Joaquim Rodriguez continues to be priced up on past successes and there is no way he should be trading at prices in the single digits any more, and today he proved again that it is a waste of money backing him at those sorts of prices. When he starts trading at 16-20/1 I might start getting interested. He is not going to outsprint the likes of Valverde and he isn't going to ride away from Froome, Quintana, Chaves and the like.

Fabio Aru could be the mystery packet here. He didn't ride the Tour, so should be fresher than the Tour guys. He rode brilliantly in the Giro to take second place, can he handle two GTs in one year at his age? He also said in an interview with Matt Rendell on ITV today that he hasn't been feeling great since his crash but has had a few days to recover and he's looking forward to the bigger mountains. 10th in the GC, just 11" behind Quintana, he can't be that banged up! He is now the marked man at Astana of course, no Nibs to distract the likes of Valverde, so every move will be watched closely. He's still got a good team with him though, expect Landa, Cataldo and LL Sanchez to be still with him for most of the last climb. If Froome and Quintana and co. start looking at each other in the last 3-4kms, he cold take a flyer off the front, like he's done in the past.

Johan Esteban Chaves - after his brilliant win for me on St2, I should really have backed him again yesterday, he owes me nothing! I should have backed him really, I said if he won it would be the bet of the Vuelta at 20/1, I'm annoyed I missed out! Can he keep it up? This is a very different proposition altogether, 20kms of climbing, the last 8kms of which are a pretty steady 6-7%. I don't think he'll have many team-mates left in the last 4kms if the likes of Movistar or Sky are putting the hammer down, but he seems to be in excellent shape right now and he could just ride his own race and attack off the front like he did today. There's no more fancy prices about him though, the bookies are running scared, offering just 5-7/1 on him generally, PP are taking him on though at a standout 12/1. Based on form alone, you'd have to think we should be all over that, but that was a hard finish for him today and he has the pressure of the Red Jersey on his shoulders again. I think he might be a little blunted for today, but should still be right up there at the front. 

Domenico Pozzovivo is an interesting one though - I think he is capable of winning a stage in this race, he comes here fresh and in good form, sprinting to 7th place on stage 5 and finished with the favourites group today. As I said, I think he is capable of winning a stage in this race, it's trying to pick which one is the problem! There is the fear of missing out with him, not back him at a big price of 25/1 only to see him dance away, and then he being 12/1 for the next opportunity. I think he should like this stage, it's hard, but not super steep. He will be on his own, but that's the way it is in nearly every high mountain stages anyway. He could take advantage of a hiatus and a standoff between Valverde, Froome, Aru and their teams towards the end of the stage and launch an attack, or he could jump with the likes of Quintana or Chanves. 25/1 is too tempting for me..

Rafal Majka could be a dark horse for tomorrow also, very little form to go on, but he did finish 8th on today's finish, sandwiched between Froome and Quintana and also finished 8th on St4's uphill finish. He is the main GC man for T-S with Alberto not in the race, and his team have rallied around him so far, almost winning the TTT on the opening day. He could be another that takes a flyer off the front, possibly a little farther out. He's around 20/1 but I'm reluctant to back him just yet. 

Dan Martin left his backers frustrated again today with another Podium spot, he left it all too late again to go on the attack, there was no catching Chaves. He clearly has excellent legs though as he attacked and then rode Rodriguez and another rider I didn't catch off his wheel. He was flying as he approached Dumoulin and left all the other GC favourites behind. Again, he's not that far off the Red Jersey, a Stage win and 24" of a gap to Chaves will put him in the lead. He sometimes struggles on the longer climbs though in the Vuelta, and even at 25/1 I'm reluctant to back him tomorrow, he might find a few too good for him, but he should be right up there. 

Others? Rodolfo Torres for Colombia is one I'm looking forward to seeing on the bigger stages, he has designs on the KOM jersey, so he better get cracking! He is 70s with Will Hill and that's worth a small dabble.. Again, it's that fear that you're not on a rider you fancied at a great price, only for him to win and trades next time at a quarter of what he was previously! Darwin Atapuma has been talked up by quite a few, but he finished way down today, and sits nearly 7 minutes down on GC. He could be let go in the early attack or try a late attack on the final climb.

Nico Roche has been going particularly well, can he keep it up on a stage like this? Will he be back to looking after Froome and pulling at the front on the final climb, or will they let him have a free hand to try to go and win the jersey? It's not often you see Roche trading at prices under 40/1, but he's only 20/1 with 365 for tomorrow, the 33/1 with others is a bit better. I can't see him out riding the Colombians, Valverde or Froome even. He could well podium if he attacks if there are any stalls in the leaders group in the last few kilometres. One guy at a massive price who could give it a go tomorrow is Alberto Losada for Katusha. When they hit the 1km to go mark today, it was he was attacking off the front with Navarro of Cofidis when Martin came charging past. He has never won a race, but did finish 3rd on a stage in the 2012 Giro which had a similar finish to this stage. I got matched at 800 on betfair, but he's worth a tiny investment at 400/1 with PP for fun to see if he gets in the break of the day.

Dani Moreno, Mikel Landa, Sergio Henao, Mikel Nieve, Fabio Duarte, Allesandro De Marchi, Louis Meintjes, Bart de Clercq - they are all guys who could get involved, and there are still loads more I haven't mentioned. As you can see, this is a devilishly difficult stage to predict, with the top GC men yet to reveal their true form and some of the close outsiders rearing to have a go at them.

I think Valverde and Quintana could win this stage, but I can't split them and I can't make a strong enough case for almost all the favourites in the betting. Instead I think I am going ot have a go on Pozzovivo at 25/1 and a few small bets on some outsiders too who could get involved.                                                

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 25/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 70/1 with Will Hill

0.1pts each-way on Bart de Clerq at 125/1 with various

0.1pts each-way on Alberto Losada at 400/1 with PP

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Rodriguez and Van Garderen to beat Dumoulin - 2pts on the double with 365 pays 1.4/1 

Pozzovivo to beat Aru - 1pt at 11/10 with Bet365

Meintjes to beat S Sanchez - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Chaves to beat Majka - 2pts at 8/11 with 365