Details

Published on Saturday, 22 August 2015 21:44

Vuelta Stage 2

Alhaurín de la Torre to Caminito del Rey

Sunday August 23rd, 158.7kms

So after the farcical scenes with the neutralisation of the first stage over the sand, boardwalks, plastic, brick and marble road surfaces, we head on to a normal stage with Peter Velits sitting in the red leaders jersey after BMC won the TTT by just 1 second from Tinkoff-Saxo. But it was ridiculous to watch some teams potter about like it was a Sunday spin. 

Worst culprits were Cannondale Garmin and Giant-Alpecin who looked like they just didn't give a toss whatsoever and came in way down on the winners, freewheeling the last part up to the finish line. That meant our main bet went down very disappointingly and Cannondale failed to beat an awful time by FDJ and bust the match-bet acca. Some did try hard, with the 200/1 pokes I said were overpriced, LottoNL-Jumbo, powering to an early lead and plunging to 5/2 in play. Caja Rural had their supporters getting excited after riding in to 2nd place, but they were pushed down too by BMC and Tinkoff-Saxo.

So we once again see Peter Sagan finish 2nd in a Grand Tour stage! Sky pottered around the course too, but that didn't stop a tubby-looking Chris Froome dangling off the back for quite a lot of the stage, in what was either a worrying sign for his backers or Sky playing games on a stage that didn't matter where and when he finished!

The Route

They head inland on a route that zig-zags through the countryside on a relatively short distance of only 158.7kms, making it a relatively easy stage to ease them in to the road racing after the TTT the day before. The first 108kms are pretty non-descript with a rolling profile, but the temperatures are sure to be high and we are sure to see some of the Spanish teams looks to get men in the break of the day to get some early TV exposure.

52kms in to the stage, as they pass Zalea, they start on a loop which takes them up through Alora, the scene of the intermediate sprint, but they don't contest it this time, but the next time they pass it in 73kms time. They head north and pass below the final climb up to Caminito del Rey, but skirt up around the lakes to the north first, then head south again back towards Zalea. 

Things change though after 108kms though as they approach the Cat 3 climb of the Alto de Ardales, a 5km climb that averages 4.4%. Nothing too difficult then, but if ridden at pace by some teams eyeing up the final climb, they might just shed some of the sprinters and the unfit. Back through Zalea again and up to the sprint point with just 20kms left to go. 

With 8.7kms to go the road starts to rise, but the official climb of Alto de la Mesa is 4.7kms at an average of 6.6%. It's a tough climax to the stage and we won't see the sprinters involved today with that sort of finish. The climb really only kicks up for the last 3.5kms, the first kilometre or so is not so hard, so it actually averages closer to 7% for the final 3.5kms, easing a bit towards the line, but hitting parts as steep as 15%.

Favourites and Contenders

It will be interesting to see how this stage is raced and whether we will see the GC men bearing their teeth so early. If it's anything like the Tour, then Froome is likely to try to test his rivals on this very first climb. But with such a hard week ahead of them, maybe he might hold back for now, and he didn't look completely race-fit to me either today. It is a relatively short climb though, especially as it eases off a little towards the line, so there could be some regrouping at the top and a reduced group sprint. 

The break has a chance on a day like today though too, plenty of teams will be interested in getting men up the road on the first road stage of the race and some teams might want to take it easy after the TTT and with such a hard week ahead of them. With Velits in the leader's jersey, BMC might be interested in trying to keep the break under a tight leash and may try to respect the leader's jersey, but with the climb at the finish and no time buffer whatsoever, there is no chance he'll hold on to it.

With a finish like this, and with the way he flew away on the first climb of the Tour de France on the Mur de Huy, Joaquim Rodriguez will be fancied by some for today's stage. With the fact that there are no time gaps now going in to the second stage, the winner will take the leader's jersey off of Velits, so Purito will be motivated, like them all of course, to do that. If he can get a little time gap in to the win like on the Mur de Huy, then all the better. It's a short, punchy finish, but the hardest part comes about 2kms from the finish, so the perfect distance for Purito to attack off the front. I can see Moreno and the likes of Kochetkov and Vorganov pushing it really hard in the last few kilometres to set up the Purito attack. He will have his supporters at 7/1.

Of course, where Purito is in with a chance of a stage victory, then Alejandro Valverde is too. Valverde will like this finish as he can play off the fact that Quintana is going to be the marked man from the GC rivals point of view from the Movistar team. Valverde can attack inside the last two kilometres and if there is a momentary hesitation amongst the likes of Froome, Nibali, Aru, Van Garderen and co. then he could be gone. He can also jump on the wheels of attacks and play the 'I'm covering for Nairo' card and outsprint them at the end.

And of course he can always just sit in, get pulled to the last 300m and then outsprint the majority of the guys here. If he is going to be working for Nairo later in the race, then it may well be that they will get behind Valverde at the start of the race, he could well hold the leader's jersey for several stages, and if all things go well, Movistar may not lose the jersey again for the rest of the race! I think he will be going all out to get his glory tomorrow, and will then fall in to domestique-de-luxe mode after that. He's quite short at 2/1 but he looks the most likely winner of the stage for sure. 

I'm not sure this climb will suit Chris Froome as much, it's a bit short and sharp, but he surprised a lot of people with his explosive acceleration after Purito on the Mur de Huy. Looking back now though it was obvious that Froome was totally geared up for an early start in the Tour, he was fine tuned to start quickly, whereas the likes of Quintana and Valverde were obviously not as finely tuned and were looking to work themselves in to peak fitness for the end of the Tour. They should be far fitter at the start of the Vuelta and will not let Froome dominate as much I think. It could be quite a crowded last few kilometres, as it is so early in the race, and it's not that difficult of a climb, so there could be attacks flying off all over the place and he can't chase everything. He might be content to just follow wheels and sit in for today and look to some of the more difficult finishes to come. The 22/1 doesn't really grab me at all.

Something similar for Nairo I think, athough he will be keen to try to get an early one-over on Froome to keep that pyschological advantage over him from his domination in the last few days of the Tour, but it's going to be hard for him to skip away on such a short climb and make a meaningful mark. Of course if a move goes in the last few kilometres and he is in the right place at the right time, he will go for it, but I can't see him instigating an attack, it's too short and it might just be a waste of valuable energy. 40/1 looks about right.

Astana have multiple cards they can play here of course - Landa, Aru, Nibali and even the likes of Cataldo and Tiralongo. I don't think this is a great finish for Nibali, but he could also be used as the decoy for one of the other guys to go. Landa might be the most suited to a finish like this but Aru could also give it a go. 

This finish is probably more suited to the puncheurs than the pure out-and-out climbers you'd think though, and it's also a bit similar to the climb to the Mur de Bretagne in the Tour. We saw how well Dan Martin did on that - well, but not quite good enough, as he got boxed in and should have got out earlier and gone on to win. It should be a climb that he likes though and I woulnd't be surprised if Martin might target the KOM jersey in this his last Grand Tour for Garmin.

There are lots of stages that he could do well in with the flatish stages followed by a sharp climb to the finish, so why not try to go for the jersey early on with a stage win on the second day. He had a reasonably good first 11 stages but it didn't really go great for him after that, slipping down to 39th place after being in 16th place after stage 11. He has a really good record on climbs like this and last year and the year before he was in good shape early in the race. He has a decent chance of at least a podium tomorrow I think and the 18/1 with Be is worth a bet..

If Joaqium Rodriguez isn't quite up to it on this first stage, then his team-mate Daniel Moreno could have a go on a finish like this. Like with other teams with multiple cards to play, Purito could play a dummy attack and get the chase after him only for Moreno to counter-punch them on the run to the line. He did well in the Vuelta a Burgos recently, he finally broke a pretty barren period for him on the bike, and took a fine stage victory on stage 5 soloing to victory ahead of Taaramae. He could have a chance tomorrow, but at 12/1 he's too short for me...

Peter Sagan looked in good form again today, he seems very relaxed and calm and his team almost won the TTT today. I think it might be a little too steep for him though and I'm not backing him. If it's too steep for Sagan, it shouldn't be for Henao who should relish a finish like this. It all depends on what the team orders are - if Davey B says that everyone stays near Froome and no-one is allowed to attack then that's the end of his chances. But if he gets the nod  then he could relish this finish and would have a chance. The other thing I'm worried about with them though is that if he does win, he takes the leader's jersey and I'm not sure that they will necessarily want to be working to protect a jersey on Henao so early in the race. Too many things worrying me to back him at just 18/1.

Simon Gerrans is also only 18/1 and that is hard to back given it's his first race back since crashing in the same crash in the Tour that took out Cancellara and several others. He has crashed a lot recently and the pattern always seems to be that he isn't quite at the level he needs to be at in the first races back, but gets stronger pretty quickly. A week in, this might have been a good stage for him, but I think this will come too soon for him. 

Others? Jelle Vanendert might try something for Lotto-Soudal, he has done well in races like Fleche-Wallone and Amstel Gold, where he has finished 2nd twice, in the past with steep finishes and he looks a big price at 100/1. He may not win it but he could come close. Orica GreenEdge were pretty pleased with their performance today, sitting in the hot seat for a while, and they have a second card they could play tomorrow in Esteban Chaves, he did ok in the Tour de Suisse recently and could like this finish. He is a massive 200/1 with PP but only 33/1 with 365.

I can't really see many more getting involved, it looks like it's Valverde's for the taking but Martin could run him close and a couple of wild cards for fun too.   

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 2/1 with PP or 365

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 18/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Jelle Vandendert at 100/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Esteban Chaves at 200/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Rodolfo Torres to beat Bart de Clerq - 2pts at 13/8

Giovanni Visconti to beat Tiralongo - 2pts at 4/6

Dan Martin to beat Sammy Sanchez - 4pts at 8/15