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Published on Thursday, 16 July 2015 22:28

TDF Stage 13

Muret to Rodez 

Friday 17th July, 198.5kms 

So we leave the Pyrenées behind and head towards the Massif Central with a lumpy stage that will still test the riders climbing legs. This stage has the air of a Classics race about it again, with a relatively calm opening that bulids up to a more challenging second half and an uphill, tough finish to the stage. 

This part of France is a joy to ride in - quite, deserted roads with only the sound of cows and cowbells to break the silence in places. You can go for miles on some of the quieter roads without a car passing you and when a car does pass you, they often pass with an encouraging toot. This may be a rugby-loving part of the world but they are also massive cycling fans and don't often get to see the Tour pass through as it tends to stick to the 'sexier' parts of France. It may not look like much of a stage compared to the previous day's peak-fest, but this is a lumpy stage that will hurt tired legs. 

So we came pretty close today to landing a very nice 66/1 winner with Jacob Fuglsang, nice to see him do what I thought he might do and go up the road in the break. It’s just a pity that Joaquim Rodriguez was in the break with him as the vastly experienced and superior climber Rodriguez broke our hearts. Still, he traded down to 5/2 in play if some of you were inclined to trade out for a profit, and the ¼ the odds on 66/1 wasn’t a bad payout either. There were some great rides by guys I had picked over the last few days, but thankfully, seeing as I hadn’t picked them today, they finished out of the money!

Jeremy Roy and Louis Meintjes were in the break, but so too was Bardet, who rode brilliantly considering he suffered so badly yesterday. Rodriguez burnt a few fingers today I think, some people thought he was hurt after crashing in the neutral zone yesterday and were taking him on in match bets. Our match bets did pretty good too, just unlucky with Talansky, rolling in 2 places ahead of Barguil, the Fuglsang and Mollema match bets both landed, Mollema suffered but never gave up.

The GC favourites did more or less what I expected of them, Froome tried a dig but it wasn’t anything major, Quintana tried a few feelers but Geraint Thomas and Richie Porte just gave him no breathing space whatsoever and he didn’t ever get more than about 10 bike lengths. Tejay followed wheels as best he can, sometimes losing ground but getting back on as soon as he could muster, riding his trademark steady tempo. Contador tried once, got nowhere, then did nothing but follow wheels for the rest of the stage.

Pretty tame efforts and a pretty boring end to the stage to be honest, you got the feeling that Froome is only toying with them. It will take a lot to make Porte and Thomas crack, and then once you have that done you have to crack Froome, and even in the rain today they were unable to even come close to that. Let’s hope for better in the Alps.

Louis Meintjes is still learning his trade but it was a fine performance by him today, he is now a nice 37 minutes ahead of Feillu in their overall head 2 head!

The Route

As they leave the Haute-Garonne and north-east towards the Tarn region and the farther north they head in the stage, the lumpier it gets. The opening 95kms or so are pretty flat, with just a few little lumps at the start of the stage. It's still pretty flat though until they reach the intermediate sprint at Laboutarie after 92.5kms, but after that as they head through Villefranche D'Albigeois the road becomes quite hilly. There are no big climbs in this area, but the roads are constantly just up and down with very little flat roads. 

They hit three categorised climbs in 36kms, with first up the Cat 3 Cote de Saint-Cirgue, a doddle compared to the monster climbs they had to get over on the last three days! It is still 3.8kms at 5.8%, so we could see some of the sprinters and weaker riders go out the back door here as some teams are going to be keen to strip them out as soon as they can. This is followed by the Cat 4 Cote de la Pomparie after 154kms (2.8kms at 5%) and then 9kms later the Cote de la Selve (3.9kms at 3.7%). 

There's a 10kms lumpy descent after the Cote de la Selve that takes them to an uncategorised climb at La Primaube, which although it's uncategorised is a tough looking hill that could make final separations between those that will fight out the finish and those who won't. They descend for 8kms down towards the town of Rodez, before there's a short 1500m section on the flat before the final sting in the tail, the road kicks up at 9.6% for the last 570m, meaning that even if any of the pure sprinters managed to hang in there up until now, it's unlikely they will be competing for the stage victory. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is another really hard stage to call. There will be lots of tired legs in the peloton, but equally,there are lots of guys who have been hiding away in the bunch and conserving energy specifically for stages like this. A break could make it, the terrain is suited to a break away staying away, but also teams with strong uphill sprinters will fancy their chances and so will be keen to reel in the break before the finish. 

Peter Sagan is a very likely candidate for this finish, and will be keen to get maximum points with the likelihood that there will be no Greipel, Cavendish and possibly even Degenkolb at the finish. He should have no problems with the closing kilometres, he should be able to get over those hills just fine, and with Contador all but out of it for the GC win they should throw everything behind Sagan to try to secure his stage win and put a gap between him and Greipel for Green. He's as short as 2/1 but is available at 4/1 with Skybet, that's not a bad price at all, if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint he'll probably win.

Another thing to remember with picking someone like Sagan on a stage like this, is how tricky the run-in to the line is. As you can see on the right, after they pass the 2km to go mark, they swing left along by the river, descending very quickly. Just after the 1km mark they go left through a roundabout and under a bridge before curving right and starting the climb uphill. They then go through two switchbacks, right and then left, before finally the road straightens up for the last 150 metres or so. It's a very technical finish, one perfect for a man like Sagan, he's a master at finishes like this.

Can John Degenkolb hold in there? He has been riding well lately too and was unlucky on the uphill finish of stage 4 to Cambrai, but when it has come to the sprint finishes he has been well beaten every time. Remember his superb performance on the Hatta Dam in the Dubai Tour at the start of the season though? He sprinted up the steep ramp which was 350m long, averaging 17% for the last 200m, beating none other than the 2/1 favourite Valverde. I think he'll struggle to beat Sagan though on this finish and he doesn't offer much value at 9/1.

Zdenek Stybar showed on stage 6 to Le Havre how good he is on a finish like this, he skipped away while others looked at each other and waited for Sagan to chase him down. I think he has had his moment though and won't be allowed do that again. His team-mate Kwiatowski could have been a big favourite for this stage but he had a really, really hard day in the rain today on the way to the PDB, I don't think he'll be featuring tomorrow.

Greg Van Avermaet has a decent chance tomorrow I think, he has a number of ways that he could win this stage. Firstly, he could get in the break of the day, but I think this is the least likely outcome. Secondly, he could attack late on inside the lat 30kms like a break in the Tour of Flanders or something on similar sorts of terrain. Thirdly, he has a decent chance of a good placing on an uphill sprint like this, he won't be far away. The 20/1 with Boyles paying 5 places is very tempting.

Eddie Bos and Bryan Coquard are two guys who could come close at the finish but I think they'll be fighting for 5th to 10th places at best. What about the GC men at the finish? Will Chris Froome try to jump away from his rivals on that steep ramp? He certainly could try, he did so on the Mur de Huy and this is more his sort of gradient. I'm not sure he will though, he'll come in about 10th to 30th, close to the front out of trouble but may not contest it. i don't think Quintana or Contador are capable of getting in front on a hill like this though, nor Van Garderen. 

Joaquim Rodriguez could be a big danger on a finish like this, that is, if he hadn’t spent almost the whole day today in the break and hadn’t rode almost half the Plateau de Beille on his own in awful conditions. You can never rule anything out with Purito, but I think he might be tired after today and could save his energy for another crack in the Alps.

Daniel Martin had a tough day Wednesday, I didn’t expect him to feature today and he was one of the first off the back on the PDB. I think he might be saving himself for the Alps, he may find the pace at the front too high in the lead-in to this hill, he will probably be in a bad position again. It might be just a little too short for him too at less than 600m. The victor on the Mur de Bretagne ahead of Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz might like this gradient, but I'm not sure he'll like a chaotic sprint finish, far easier for him to negotiate a hill like the Mur de B with less riders in contention. I might leave him for tomorrow. 

Tony Gallopin has been riding sensationally in this Tour, still maintaining a top 10 placing on the GC, despite losing 9 minutes. He might like this finish too and he looks big at 40/1, but if it comes down to a sprint amongst the likes of Sagan I don't think he will be winning. A late attack might be his best chance but he'll never be let go with him sitting in 8th place. 

Michael Matthews is one that I am worried about. I am worried that if I don't back him he'll go and win this and I wasn't on. He has been saying in the 'Backstage Pass' videos lately that he is feeling better day by day and the legs were starting to feel good, he came home a full ten minutes ahead of the grupetto yesterday. It is a tricky one though as we don't really know just how good/bad he is to take on a finish like this. But if he's feeling good, he's a real danger on this climb. I might leave him tomorrow to see how he goes, it's a slim chance I think he'll be well enough to compete.

Finally, in terms of the possible sprint finish guys, Matteo Trentin should be the man for Etixx-QS tomorrow, and he should like a finish like this. He has been getting involved in some intermediate sprints, maybe just keeping the legs in good order for an opportunity like this. He's 33/1 with a few firms, he's only 14/1 with Betfred.  

But of course the break could make it and there are so many guys who will want to get in the break for an 'easier' day like this. Lars Bak apparently said on Danish TV that he fancies going on the attack on stages 13 and 15, so it would be rude not to back him. He opened at massive odds of 250/1, I missed that as I was at a school play! He has been slashed across the board as word has spread and I just managed to get 33/1 - he is best price 25/1 now and that's a bit short, but maybe worth a small bet to see if he's true to his word. Others that I like for this sort of stage are Jan Bakelants at 50/1 (33/1 now), Simon Geschke at 80/1 with PP paying 4 places and maybe we could try Peter Weening again as he is 200/1 and he's bound to go on the attack the day after we picked him first. 

So it's a really hard stage to call once again. I think it's worth having a small bet now on Sagan and doubling it if the break looks like it is going to be caught and they are going to set up a sprint finish. Matteo Trentin and GVA are big prices to go well on an uphill sprint like this and there are a whole bunch of guys who could make it in the break. A scatter-gun approach will hopefully find us another Fuglsang and maybe we'll go one better this time. 

Edit: 11:00 - I've added Geschke at 80s on the Betfair sportsbook after all, he has been backed heavily and someone was trying to get £134 on him at 60s on the exchange while you could still back him at 80s on the sportsbook. Must be word going around he's going to try to get in the break. I've also added Alexander Genies at 200s as FDJ tweeted this morning that he is from Rodez, worth a shot at that price. 

Recommendations:

1.5pt win at 4/1 on Peter Sagan with Skybet - look to double up at down to 2/1 in play if the break doesn't look like making it

0.5pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 20/1 with Boyles paying 5 places

0.5pts each-way on Matteo Trentin at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Peter Weening at 200/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Lars Bak at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts e/w on Simon Geschke at 80/1 on betfair sportsbook 

0.1pts e/w on Alexander Geniez at 200/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Van Avermaet to beat Stybar - 2pts at 8/11 with Ladbrokes

Sepulveda to beat Ten Dam - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Van Garderen to beat Gesink - 4pts at 8/11 with Bet365