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Published on Saturday, 11 July 2015 22:40

TDF Stage 9

Vannes to Plumelec 

Sunday 12th July, 28kms 

A pivotal day potentially - the longest time trial and the last time trial of the race, could we see Tejay Van Garderen take over the yellow jersey thanks to his world champions team-mates? A stage similar to the TTT in the Critérium du Dauphiné which saw BMC lay down a marker ahead of the Tour.

A 28km Team Trial which will test every team - it's not the longest TTT in the world, but at 28kms, it will certainly cause some sizeable time gaps. And it's not flat, that's for sure, although they only climb to a max height of 153m at the finish, it is up and down for quite a lot of the 28kms. 

Of course it won't tell us huge amounts about who is in form and who isn't or which teams are very strong and who aren't when it comes to the crucial mountain stages, but a bad showing in this TT at this point in the race could really finish off some riders chances of a good place on the GC. Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Vincenzo Nibali all have time to make back on Froome and Van Garderen and in Nibali's case, even more after today's stage to the Mur de Bretagne, he lost a further 20" to his big rivals. 

This is going to be a really tough stage, especially given how late in the Tour it has come - there are a lot of very tired, sore and wounded. And of course, there are some teams who have been decimated by crashes, the worst of course being Orica Greenedge who have only 6 riders left. 

The teams are going to have to work out the best strategy to tackle the climb to the finish. If they go too hard early on in the stage then they may pay for it on the final climb. If some hold back for the final climb they may not make up what they've lost on faster teams.

It's not too long at only 1.7kms but it will hurt, especialy on TT bikes! the first kilometer averages 6.4%, then they hit 500m at 7.2% before it eases back to 2.2% for the final 200m. The next day is the rest day, after nine consecutive days of racing, one of the longest opening stretches before a rest day there's been in the race's history.

It was a great day finally today with a 1-2-3 in the stage with Alexis Vuillermoz doing the business at a very nice 33/1. He was available at 40/1 with those only paying 3 place, but I don't mind too much, a 33/1 winner will do nicely. It was a fantastic victory, especially considering he went first with over a kilometre to go, (with my 250/1 shot Simon Geschke!), and instead of going backwards like a stone once Froome came past he just jumped on his wheel, took a breath and then jumped away again. He's going to win lots more races and it's an amazing story, because after he was let go by Saur Sojasun when they folded in 2013 he got the support of a private sponsor to get him a ride on the AG2R squad. Now here he is finishing 3rd on the Mur de Huy and 1st on the Mur de Bretagne. 

I was gutted for Dan Martin though, just like with Stybar jumping and Sagan finishing second and Martin jumping and Degenkolb finishing second, he was done out of a stage win by one guy being let go. But it was his own fault again though, getting boxed in on the right - I was screaming at him for 500m to "GET OUT, GET OUT, THE MOVE WILL GO AND YOU'LL MISS IT!". And as I predicted, a sprint finish in a small group was won by Valverde to land the place money on that one too. Talansky won his match bet but Uran lost to Barguil by just two places, but an 8pt overall profit on the day gets us back in the game.   

The Route

The riders will have a tailwind for most of the day as they head north-east from Vannes to Plumelec. As they leave Vannes they have some twisty, tight roads to negotiate first before it opens up to a nice straight road until the 7.5km mark on pretty flat roads. They then take a sharp left and head north-west for about 1.5kms and then turn right on a roundabout at Saint-Avé where it starts to climb after 9kms. The stronger guys on the team will be able to put the hammer down up to here, saving their climber types for later in the stage. 

As they start the climb they pass the first intermediate time check at the 10km point, with the road rising at about 2-3% for 2kms or so. Then it levels out for a bit before they start to descend again after the village of Monterblanc. After a 4km descent they start clmbing again for about 3kms, up and over La Croix Peinte, passing the second intermediate time check on the way on roads with a 4-5% gradient. Then it's just a 4km descent before they start on the final climb up to Plumelec. 

The final climb is just 2kms, but it's a real climbers climb and the non-climbers are really going to suffer. With the time being taken on the 5th man across the line, the strong GC men will be pushing it all the way up the final climb, but they will need to make sure that their 5th man hasn't got detached as they will have to wait for him. The gradient of the final climb is 6.2% average, but it starts at 6.6%, drops to 5.8%, then 7.2% before the last 100m or so is just 2,2%. 

The final climb is used in the French race Grand Prix Plumelec-Morbihan so some riders will be familiar with the finish, not that it will help much in a TTT, but interestingly AG2R seem to go well here, Romain Bardet holds the Strava KOM and Alexis Vuillermoz, today's hero, won the race this year, beating Simon, Ferdrigo and Coquard!

This stage will see different teams try different tactics and some will blow up spectacularly late in the race whereas some might start slow but fly up the final climb. Getting it wrong over getting it right could be minutes of a difference. 

Contenders and Favourites

I'll go through each of the leading contenders in turn and come to the final conclusion at the bottom, starting in betting order. There are some teams that really have no chance tomorrow and will be either just going as hard as they can to just try to keep any of their men who still harbour GC ambitions as close as possible, or else saving their legs for the mountains to come. The start times are below

BMC - evens favourites, odds on in places, but 11/8 on Betfair. 

I have been waiting for this TTT to back BMC and I was annoyed I didn't take the early 9/4 that PP offered earlier in the week before Tony Martin crashed out. To show how important he is to the EQS team, they were 5/4 favourites with them earlier in the week and they are now as big as 25/1!!!!! On the other hand, BMC have gone from 9/4 to 10/11! BMC should win this TTT I think, they have all nine riders still going, and going very strong from what I can see. They have been making their presence felt at the front at all the right times and Tejay is in a great position right now.

The world champions have an opportunity to put their man on the podium and extend his lead over the likes of Quintana, Nibali and Contador ahead of the Pyrenées. Tejay has looked, calm, cool, collected and strong - another comfortable finish for him today, just behind Froome. I think they will repeat their win in the Daupiné TTT, which was similar, and may even do it by a larger margin than the 4" they beat Astana by back in June. They have TVG, Dennis, Oss, Schar, Sanchez and Quinziato from that TTT and have Caruso and Wyss, two good guys for later in the stage. The odds on is short, but the 11/8 or so that's available on Betfair actually looks like a great bet still to me. As second last team to go off they will know what time Movistar will have set on all the splits and will be able to gauge their efforts accordingly.

Movistar - 5/1

Movistar have a seriously powerful squad for a TTT like this, with a great combination of strong, powerful time triallists for on the flatter earlier parts and their strong climbers for the latter parts. Dowsett, Castroviejo, Malori and Izagirre will power along for them on the flatter parts, Quintana, Valverde, Anacona and Herrada will power up the climbs.Quintana will be looking to pull some time back on his rivals ahead of the mountains and I think they could be the biggest danger to BMC. If they can get it right on the latter parts after a good early part they might just steal it from them. It's worth remembering though that Dowsett and Anacona have crashed earlier in the race and they would have been key members of their effort. They are the 7th last team to go off though and don't really have any of the big teams times to aim for, they all go off after them.

Team Sky - 5/1 best, as low as 3/1  

These guys are going to be interesting to watch - will they repeat the awful performances as favourites in the Dauphiné and the Giro or will they step it up now in their biggest TTT in a long time? In the Dauphiné TTT over a similar course they had lost Ian Stannard after just 3kms, then Luke Rowe suffered a mechanical and for the last 10kms Nico Roche was an anchor around their necks as he was swinging off the back, barely able to hang on. 

Froome leads the race and will want to extend his lead. But at the same time, giving up the jersey to Van Garderen may be something that he won't mind doing, he'll probably get it back again soon. Stannard has looked poor so far in this race, as has Richie Porte, two guys that should be key elements of this effort, but Froome, Nico Roche, Thomas, Poels and Konig will need to go full gas to get them in contention I feel. I think they are a poor price to be honest at just 3/1, 5/1 isn't much better, they could be off the podium if things go really bad for them. They are last team off though so will get all the time checks.

Astana - 8/1

Astana will have a job on their hands to stop Nibali losing even more time I feel, he lost more time today, slipping off the back of the Froome group just as Froome pushed it at the front and Vuillermoz jumped. They have a lot of strong men in Boom, Westra, Taaramae, Fuglsang, Kangert and Grusdev, they'll probably use up some of the bigger men like Grusdev, Grivko and Boom on the earlier parts, but they at least have all nine men like BMC and Sky. They came to within 4" of BMC at the Dauphiné, not sure they'll be this close this time, they haven't looked their usual strong selves collectively so far and Nibali looks to be below par at the moment too.

Etixx-Quick Step - 25/1 biggest price

They had a chance with Tony Martin in the team, but they were in no way a 5/4 shot as PP had them when they opened first, I'd have been laying that all day. Without Tony I think they have no chance - Kwiatkowski is off form and not looking very strong to me and Golas wasted a lot of energy today in the break. They will be lucky to be in the top 6 I think.

Tinkoff-Saxo - 25/1 best price, as low as 10/1!

Tinkoff Saxo could be a very strong runner in this test too, they are packed full of strong men like Kreuziger, Rogers, Valgren, Bennati and Contador, and most of them are pretty decent time triallists also. They did an excellent TTT in the Giro to finish 2nd, but since then some of their time trials have been pretty awful. They could be hit or miss again tomorrow, but with Sagan probably tired after a hard week and with another couple of weak links in Basso and Majka they might be just off the pace. If they do an incredible time though, Sagan could go in to yellow and Oleg Tinkoff was predicting they would tonight, but we all know he's as mad as a box of frogs. I can't see it happening. 

They opened at 33/1 and that didn't last long, there's still some 25/1 out there but have been cut to as low as 10/1 in places which is just way too short.

IAM Cycling - 66/1, as short as 25/1

This is a squad packed with decent time triallists too - riders like Brandle, Chavanel, Elmiger, Coppel and Clement. They may lack a little in the climbing department for the last climb, but they could well put in a big ride tomorrow at a big price of 66/1. 

LottoNL-Jumbo - 80/1

Here's another team that look packed with strong men and should put in a decent time but may get found out in the latter part of the stage. They have Van Emden who almost caused a big shock on the stage 1 time trial, but several of their men have come down in crashes this week and they may have to settle for 5th to 10th. 

AG2R la Mondiale - 250/1

The team that has the strava holder and the winner of the Grand Prix Plumelec-Morbihan on this hill are 250/1? Sounds big and they will be buzzing after today's result. The rest of the team are a nice mix of skills for the two parts of the race, but they'll really need to up their game to get a good result here. But they could surprise a few.  

After that I can't really see any of the other teams coming close to winning. Cannondale Garmin have a nice mix of riders but none of them are very strong at both disciplines. Bora-Argon did great in the TTT in Trentino, beating Sky by hundreds of a second, but I can't see them coming close tomorrow. 

So it looks like it's the World Champions who will be taking the prize tomorrow as far as I am concerned, and if they can find just 13" on Froome, Van Garderen will go in to yellow. I think it's very possible and I'd love to see it as he should shorten up even more and will take a very healthy lead over some key rivals in to the crucial first set of mountain stages in the Pyrenées. Movistar should be good enough to chase them home and it's between Sky and Astana for third place I think. But watch out for IAM Cycling at a big price who could put in a big ride. The only problem once again is the shit service offered by the bookies, most are not offering each-way betting and those that are are only offering each-way on the 1st two places only. Look for the 'top 3 markets' for some you fancy to maybe chase BMC home.

Recommendations: 

4pts win on BMC at 5/4 on Betfair

2pts on Movistar to finish in the Top 3 at evens with PP

Lay Tinkoff-Saxo to finish in the top 3 at 7/4 on Betfair - risking 3.5pts to win 2pts

IAM Cycling - 1pt to finish in the top 3 at 8/1 with PP

Matchbets

AG2R to beat Lampre - 2pts at 8/13

Cannondale Garmin to beat Trek - 1.8pts at 5/6

MTN to beat OGE, IAM to beat LottoNL, BMC to beat Sky, Tinkoff to beat Etixx, AG2R to beat Lampre - 1pt on the Acca at 4.23/1 with Will Hill