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Published on Saturday, 04 July 2015 17:44

TDF Stage 2

Utrecht to Zélande, 166kms

Sunday July 5th

Stage 2 takes them from Utrecht to Zélande along the coast in a stage that stays entirely in the Netherlands. They pass along some of the roads used for the World Ports Classic, a race notorious for the strong cross winds as they ride along wide, exposed roads and bridges. It looks like a day for the sprinters but it's not guaranteed all sprinters will be involved given the likelihood of crosswinds and splits.

What a Stunning victory for Rohan Dennis today, backed in to 25/1, he delivered an incredible ride to win the stage at an average speed of 55.446kmph, a record speed for a Time Trial in the Tour. Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara tried their best but they just weren't good enough on the day. Cancellara was good enough to land the 3rd spot and the each-way bet at 9/1, so together with that and the three out of three on the matchbets meant it was a winning start with a 3.2pt profit.

There were some strange results all over the 198 riders, Froome was disappointed with his ride, but Quintana must be delighted with his - he lost only 11" to Froome, making it a brilliant start for the little Colombian. So impressed were punters by his strong showing, he is now the clear favourite on Betfair for the Tour, flip-flopping wth Froome. Quintana is now 3.2 and Froome 3.7 from the other way around this morning. Nibali has come in to 6 from 6.8 and Contador is out to 6.8 from 6 as Nibali impressed with a strong ride. Tibaut Pinot will be the happiest though, as he leads the 'GC' men by one second from Van Garderen who also put in a strong ride.

Given that this is a flat stage we should see the first sprinter's battle of the Tour. Marcel Kittel was originally installed at the top of the market at 11/8 favourite with Paddy Power, but of course, he's no longer riding the TDF causing a big reshuffle in the betting. Mark Cavendish was next at 5/2 but is now as short as 11/10 and he will be hoping to fare better than he did in the Tour's first sprint stage last year, his kamikaze battle with Gerrans ending his race. 

The Route

After starting in Utrecht they head to Rotterdam where the intermediate sprint is located, and it will be interesting to see who goes for the intermediate sprint out of the pack, who it is has designs on the Points Jersey. They then head to the province of Zeeland to reach Neeltje Jans, an artificial island in the dike that protects the land from the sea. As Christian Prudhomme proclaimed, it's the first time that the Tour has had a stage finish in the sea, not entirely true if you count the finish at Mont St Michel in 2013. 

It's almost completely flat for the entire stage, the highest point on the route being just 6m as they pass over the Brouwersdam with 22kms to go. The last 5kms are littered with roundabouts and street furniture and it will be pretty chaotic and the speed is sure to be furious at this point. The weather is forecast to have some rain in the morning but the rest of the day shouldn't be too bad, but the wind is expected to pick up in the afternoon, just as they start to head to the most exposed last 50kms.

It's a short stage too at only 166kms, should only take them around 4 hours. The official start comes 9.8kms in to the route and is scheduled for 13:50 local time. With the likelihood of cross-winds and furious pace, there could be splits in the group so the GC men will have to be on their toes in the last 10kms or so when it's most exposed. 

Mark Cavendish outlined what great form he is in coming in to the Tour with a superb ride in the British Road Nationals last weekend, taking 2nd place on a course with a tough uphill cobbled finish, not normally his forte. He rode hard all day but was outnumbered and outgunned by the Sky boys Kennaugh, Rowe and Stannard. He did an incredible amount of chasing though and just ran out of gas in the end. He claimed after the race that he had collided with a spectators camera on Michaelgate and he will need to have his shoulder looked at, but I'm sure he'll be fine.. He seems keen and fit and ready to go for the green though, he will want to get off to a flying start here knowing he will need maximum points on all the pure sprint stages. 

He didn't have a great Tour de Suisse but that wasn't a race for him really, his previous race in the Tour of Cali saw him take four stage wins and the Green Jersey. In Turkey before that it was 3 stage wins and the Green Jersey. In all he has won 12 races this year, putting him second in the list of winners this year behind Kristoff.

There are few better than him in flat out, fast sprints and with Kittel out of the race he has to be the strong favourite to win the first sprint of the Tour. His team are usually the masters of the crosswind splits, if there are to be any splits and echelons in the final 50kms along the sea, they are sure to be involved. With a leadout consisting of Tony Martin (for the last 5kms), Kwiatkowski, Golas, Vermote and Renshaw he will be launched like a missile with 200m to go. They will be disappointed they don't have the yellow jersey on Martin's shoulders, but in another sense it's a benefit too them as they won't be the ones having to do the early controlling and also Martin can get involved in the leadout rather than possibly sitting it out.. He looks a pretty solid bet, although it's quite short, at 5/4 best bookies price, but he is available at over 11/8 on Betfair.. 

Nacer Bouhanni could have been the closest to Cav on a flat out sprinters sprint like this. The little Frenchman has been coming in to form of late and is starting to look very fast as well. After a mediocre start to the season, he started to get closer in the Bayern Rundfahrt where he finished 2nd three times. It finally started to click for him when he won two great stages in the Dauphiné. He has a great lead-out train with Soupe and co and should be battling for Cavs wheel in the last kilometre. He could well land a top 3 - that is if he has recovered from his crash in the Nationals last week. He looked comfortable enough to me today in the TT, he didn't go very fast, obviously, he will have been saving energy for tomorrow, but he looked ok to me.

I think there is no doubt he'd be French champion now if he hadn't been chopped out of it in the finishing straight by a diabolical piece of riding. I am hoping he is alright, he was playing it very mean and moody at the teams presentation on Thursday and was a bit bandaged up, but I'm hoping it's a bit of an act..He's tough and I bet if he's near enough to 100% he'll be going flat out to try to make up for the disappointment of the Nationals. He ranges from 16/1 to 11/1 and the 16/1 is just about tempting, but I'll wait to see if I can get a decent price on him to finish in the top 3 only. 

André Greipel comes here with the third best win record this year with 8 victories, including one in the Giro. A super strong sprinter in a power sprint like this with a long straight finish, Greipel could well be Cavendish's biggest danger if Bouhanni isn't 100%. Winner of 6 Tour de France stages, he comes here with a super strong leadout team that includes the very experienced and talented lead out men Hansen, Henderson, Sieberg and Bak. Expect there to be a big battle between the Etixx, Cofidis and Lotto-S leadout trains in the last few kilometres, but I think Greipel will not be able to match the sheer acceleration of Cavendish so he might have to start his sprint earlier and just try to get the jump on him and hang on. He also can have problems getting stuck in on opening stages sometimes, he sometimes struggles to get involved in chaotic opening stages, so I'll wait a few days for him I think.

Alexander Kristoff has been the king of the sprints so far this year though in terms of winning races, he has landed no fewer than 18 wins, two 2nds and four 3rds. The big Norwegian has been in superb form right from his first race in Qatar where he took 3 stages and the points jersey, through March where he won a stage in Paris-Nice and took 2nd in Milan-San-Remo and through to the Tour de Suisse where he took stage 7 with a powerful sprint, holding off Sagan. I think even though he will like any rain or wind that comes, there are other stages that might suit him a little better though. This should be a power man's sprint but it's the lead-in to the sprint that could cause him problems, Katusha will have to do a great job to deliver him in the right place at the right time, but with the likes of Paolini they have pretty experienced hands. It might be just a little too speedy for him in this flat sprinters sprint, he could well podium but I don't think he'll win it. 

John Degenkolb should now be the number one man for Giant-Alpecin following the withdrawal of Marcel Kittel. Another rider in superb form this year, his biggest win coming from a sensational ride in Paris-Roubaix, but his sprint win in Milan-San-Remo to deny Kristoff was equally impressive. A man for the big occassion and the tough days, this sprint might be a little on the fast side for him, he has other stages in the coming days that he will be more interested in I think. He did win two stages in the Bayern Rundfarht but his last sprint I saw him in in the Tour de Suisse wasn't too impressive, he was easily outgunned and outmanouevered by Matthews, Sagan and Van Avermaet. He rode a great TT today though so he looks like he's in good shape, but I'm going to pass on him, even though the 20/1 almost got me interested...

Peter Sagan has started to really fire in recent weeks after a dreadful start to the season. His performances were so bad in the first part of the season Oleg started threatening him with punishment and it clearly fired him up in time for the Tour of Cali where he won two stages, had three 2nds, two 3rds and a 6th on his way to winning the overall after a great climbing performance on Mt Baldy. He followed that with a pretty decent week at the Tour de Suisse, taking two stage wins and finishing runner-up to Kristoff and Matthews on two other stages. He also took another Green Jersey there, his second of the season after Tirreno. He wouldn't normally be able to beat Cav on a sprint like this though, but he could get close - 5th or 6th for me.  

Sam Bennett is making his debut in a Grand Tour and he excites me a lot, I think he could have a lot of fun in this Tour. The Bora-Argon team has been built around him for these kinds of stages. He has already beaten Bouhanni (three times) and Degenkolb in sprints this season and just keeps getting better and better. The nature of his wins in the Bayern R were very impressive, he came from a mile back in one to pass Degenkolb and Bouhanni on the line, in the other he went for a long one and held them off. With Kittel out, Bouhanni wounded and the fast, flat sprint not suiting many of those named above, I'm liking the chances of Sammy B to ruffle some feathers and get right up there at the front at a big price of 50/1. I feel like we have to strike when his price is this big as if he puts in a big ride today he will be a lot shorter next time. He has been cut now to around 25/1 but there is still 33/1 with Corals and that's worth an each-way bet. 

Bryan Coquard will be trying to get up there for Europcar, they will be desperate once again for some big results. According to L'Equipe, it's last chance saloon for them to find a replacement sponsor. He hasn't had a great year but has still racked up some wins, although they have been against some pretty mediocre opposition. I think he'll struggle to impose himself in this lineup though and I can't see him being in the top 6. Arnaud Démare finally got off the mark this season with two sprint victories in the Belgium Tour, beating Tom Boonen on each stage. He's had a pretty awful year up until then though and his Tour de Suisse and Nationals last weekend were races to forget again. 10th or higher for me. 

Verdict time:I think Mark Cavendish will be very hard to beat here. He has the best leadout and the fastest sprint and so should be too good for the opposition here. André Greipel should be pretty close, as should Alexander Kristoff, but I'm plumping for the value bet in Sam Bennett to jump on Greipel's wheel and come around him in the last 100m to try to challenge Cav for the win.  

Recommendations:

2.5pts win on Cavendish at 6/5 with Paddy Power or take the 7/5 with Betfair he is now if you bet with them)

0.3pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 50/1 with PP (take the 33/1 with Corals now) 

Matchbets:

Bouhanni to beat Démare - 2pts at 11/10 with PP

Degenkolb to beat Coquard - 1.8pts at 5/6 with PP

Bennett to beat Coquard - 1.6pts at 11/8 with WillHill

Bennett to beat Matthews, Cavendish to beat Greipel, Kristoff to beat Sagan, Boasson Haagen to beat Navardauskas - 1.5pts on the four-fold at 15/8 with PP