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- Published on Saturday, 06 June 2015 11:43
Critérium du Dauphiné 2015
Sunday June 7th to Sunday June 14th
The Critérium du Dauphiné continues the build up to the 2015 Tour de France, which starts in just a month in Utrecht. Alberto Contador has laid down a marker with his victory in the Giro, now it's the turn of Chris Froome and reigning TDF champ Vincenzo Nibali to lock horns in the Ardeche.
With a Team Time Trial and a stage that mirrors stage 17 of the TDF, there will be plenty of interesting clues and pointers for the big one in July. Andrew Talansky landed a major shock last year when he was allowed to ride away to victory as Froome and Contador played games and threw away the race.
As it turned out Froome didn't have the legs after crashing two days before, so Contador made a terrible 'calcoolayshun' as Séan Kelly would say, by the time he got going it was too late and he had thrown away the race.
Froome had looked like he was in control after a superb prologue and a massively powerful ride to take victory on the second stage, but Contador fought back on Stage 7 with a wounded Froome not being able to stay with him after he had crashed badly on stage stage 6 (below).
But it all changed again on the final day to cap off what was a brilliant week of racing. Being part of the break that won that day in the rain on the final stage to Courcheval, Jurgen Van den Broeck pulled himself on to the podium to land my 50/1 each-way recommendation, a nice surprise as I had virtually ripped up that ticket!
That is about the only worthwhile result JVDB has had in a long time and it looks like his tenure with Lotto-Soudal has come to an end with the angry outburst from management that 12th in the Giro was not good enough and not what they were expecting.
There's a high quality field turning up at the startline in Ugine next Sunday and we should be in for a decent week of racing. As well as former winners Talansky, Froome and Valverde, there is current TDF champ Nibali, former World Champ Rui Costa, top-tens from last year Kelderman, Navarro and Adam Yates and other stars such as Dan Martin, Tony Martin, Roman Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Tejay Van Garderen, Tony Gallopin, JC Peraud and Julian Alaphilippe.
The Critérium was first run in 1947, when, like so many other races, a local newspaper, the Dauphiné Libéré organised a stage race in the Alps just before the Tour and it quickly became popular as a preparation race for the Tour. It maintained it's independence until 2010, when the organisers eventually reached out to the ASO as a result of financial difficulties. Since the ASO took over it has extended its ties with the TDF even more and shortened the name to the Critérium du Dauphiné, but continues to be an important TDF build-up. Even more than ever in fact with the ASO adding stages over the last five years that were either exact replica's of stages in the TDF like this year's stage 5 to Pra-Loup, or stages that contained some of the climbs like the climb of the Lacets de Montvernier on stage 8 this year.
Despite it's association with the TDF, there aren't many riders who do the double, there is the dilemma of wanting to win the race, but also not being 100% tuned up yet or going too deep a few weeks before the big one. In recent years Wiggins (2012) and Froome (2013) did it, but before that you have Armstrong in 2002 and 2003 and Indurain in 1995 in the modern era who have pulled it off. It still remains an important part of rider's calendars, and seems to be becoming more important with every year than the Tour de Suisse, which this year really has only attracted second division GC men like Kwiatkowski and Dumoulin. The field this year should ensure an exciting and revealing race and should be packed with action and drama right up to the final climb on the final day.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Talanksy | Garmin-Sharp | 31h 08min 08s |
| 2 | Alberto Contador | Tinkoff-Saxo | at 27s |
| 3 | Jurgen Van den Broeck | Lotto-Soudal | at 35s |
The Route
It's an interesting route this year, with something for everyone. The first stage is one for the punchy attackers and the stronger sprinters with six ascensions of the Col de Villard (1.2kms at 8.7%). The second stage should be perfect for the sprinters, one of the few chances they get in the race (hence the low turn-out of top sprinters). The third stage is a 24.5km time trial that is sure to have a big impact on the outcome of this race - it's hilly, with all of the last 10kms rising uphill to Albertville. Stage four is long and lumpy, but still not too tough, a Cat 3 and Cat 4 climb come in quick succession but are at just over the half way point in the stage. There is a Cat 3 climb 13kms from the finish but it could be a day that ends in a sprint, possibly from a reduced group.
Stage 5 starts to get serious with five categorised ascensions, two Cat 3s warming them up inside the first 67kms, then an 11km Cat 2 is followed by a 14km Cat 1 and then a final Cat 2 to the finish in Pra-Loup. None of the climbs are particularly hard, but the succession of them should make it an important day where you may not win the race, but you could lose it.
Stage 6 is another tough day in the saddle with 6 categorised climbs, including the 14km Cat 1 climb of the Col du Rousset and the final pull up to Villard de Lans. Stage 7 is a Saturday afternoon treat and is similar to stage 6 with another 6 categorised climbs. Five of the climbs are Cat 1s, with the double hit of Cat 1s at the end sure to blow the race apart. The final stage to Modane Valfréjus is another interesting stage with a series of small little climbs during the day, but they will be climbing gradually for more or less all of the last 50kms.
It's a course that will require the riders to be on their toes from the start to the finish as there are plenty of opportunities for attacking and plenty of opportunities for time to be made and lost. The TTT is obviously going to be important, but stages 5, 6 and 7 will see the climbers take over. Stage 8 has a tough final climb which hits 9.6% for a kilometre with 2200m to go and it's possible the race could be decided on this final climb.
Stage 1
Ugine to Albertville
Sunday, June 7th, 132kms
We start with a strange stage in that the route never goes more than about 10kms from the finish town of Albertville. They start in the town of Ugine and after a small little loop around the town they head south for 6.5kms to the finish town of Albertville but skip along the outskirts rather than going through the finish line and head out on a circuit of 26.5kms to the south east of the city. Along the way they hit their first climb of the day, the Côte d'Esserts-Blay, a short 1.4kms, but a testing 6.9% gradient. Back up to Albertville and they pass through the finish line which takes them off on the 'Grand Circuit' which is 19kms and takes them over the Côte du Villard for the first time and then oer the Côte dou Cruet for the only time, a 2.3km drag at just 4.9%.
Then it's back on to the flat lands before passing through the finish line again and starting the 'Petite Circuit' which is 16kms and takes them over the Côte du Villard on each of the five laps of the circuit. The Côte is just 1.2kms, but averages 8.7%, short enough that it shouldn't really cause too many problems, but just steep enough that it could cause problems! Once over the top of the Côte there are just 12kms to go to the line, but it actually rises for another 2kms or so on a plateau before they descend down to the last flat 7kms or so.
This is a very short stage at just 132kms, they should be done in about 3 hours, so the racing should be fast and furious considering there is the first yellow jersey up for grabs for the winner. It could be a day for the breakaway, there are sure to be plenty of fresh, strong punchy types who will fancy this stage. It could also see a late attack on the final ascent of the Villard, once over the top there are just 10kms to go, 3kms or so of which are descending and the rest is dead flat. It may be too hard for the out-and-out sprinter Bouhanni, but there are plenty of guys who will fancy this to get their week off to a good start.
Favourites and Contenders
Nacer Bouhanni has been installed the 5/2 favourite for the stage with Paddy Power who are out nice and early with their prices on the Wednesday before the race starts, once again setting an example that I can't understand why the others don't follow. I have to start by saying I think he is terrible value at 5/2 and I won't be backing him at that price. He hasn't exactly set the world alight this year with his three victories coming in pretty low-grade races against opposition like Sam Dumoulin and Alexey Tsatevich. He did ok in the Bayern Rundfarth, finishing 2nd on the first three stages, beaten by Sam Bennett and Degenkolb, but he seemed to get worse as the race wore on.
As he is about the only pure sprinter here the pressure will be on him to deliver, but I think the fact that he is the only pure sprinter in the race and with this course having a tricky little hill just 12kms from the finish, the other teams will be doing their utmost to shed him on the last lap (or maybe even before it). I think it might get split up, it's only 1.2kms, but if a group gets 20-30" going over the top then it will be very hard to pull them back as they will be racing for the finish and there are only 6kms to go on the flat.
We could see the likes of Lampré-Merida pulling at the front to try to split things and set up in-form man from the Giro, Sacha Modolo for the sprint. He was in superb form in Italy and would be quite capable of a good result here, if they can get rid of Bouhanni and a few more sprinters. There is a slight danger though that he may be tired after the Giro, they had an exceptionally tough final week and he did finish badly in Milan, taking only 11th place in the sprint behind the two breakaway winners.
Another team that will have an interest in pulling hard are Lotto-Soudal in order to try to set up Kris Boeckmans. Boeckmans should be able to hang on to his team-mates like de Clercq, Gallopin, Wellens and Benoot as they rip it up the hill and they would be a pretty decent lead-out for him too in Albertville. He came very close to winning the sprint on stage 3 last year, just being pipped by Nik Arndt of Giant-Shimano, who was actually supposed to be leading out Janse van Rensberg, but was going so fast he kept going and won! Boeckmans is flying too at the moment, winning 6 races so far this year - his last five starts read 1,3,1,2,1 which is pretty impressive.
I think he has a great chance of at least a place given the form he is in and the nature of the course, the tough Belgian will like this circuit and his team will too. He is 7/1 with PP, which isn't great, I was hoping some other bookie would go 10/1 or bigger but Bet365 are only 6/1 so I've taken the 7s with PP .
Another team that will be looking to split things, and are well capable of it are Etixx-QuickStep, with Martin, Serry, Terpstra, Bouet and Velits some very strong engines who will be working for rising star Julian Alaphilippe. With every race that passes, the young Frenchman is gaining in confidence and experience and his Ardennes campaign was simply sensational with 7th in AGR, 2nd in FW and 2nd in LBL. That was followed by another 2nd in Romandie and a fantastic stage win on Mt Baldy in the Tour of California, and as long as he hasn't burned himself out with all that racing in the last few months, then he could be a big star again in this race. He has a sprint that will trouble most of the guys in this race and will have no problem with the climb. One to watch at 10/1.
MTN Qhubeka could also look to cause chaos on that final climb, they have Edvald Boasson Hagen (18/1) and Tyler Farrar (20/1) as well as Reinardt Janse van Rensberg who came 3rd in that sprint with Boeckmans last year. They have several cards to play and EBH could well attack on that final climb in order to make the other teams chase and give his team-mates an easy ride to the last 3 or 4kms where they could sort themselves for the sprint.
Like MTN, OGE have a few cards they could play at the finish here too, with Simon Gerrans (cut from 33/1 to 10/1) and Daryl Impey (66/1) suited to this sort of finish. They may not be the fastest sprinters in the world any more, but against opposition like this they must fancy their chances of going close. It's a strong OGE team that's here, the sort of team that could cause splits on the climb but might then need help on the run to the finish as they are short of strong Rouleurs like Durbridge or Bewley.
Katusha might fight for Sergie Chernetckii who beat Alaphilippe not so long ago in a sprint in Catalunya on a stage that had a Cat 3 climb 25kms from the finish. He hasn't been quoted by PP though. Sam Dumoulin for AG2R is one of the other few half-decent sprinters in the field but I'm not sure he'll be at the front though.
What about break-away candidates? Well an early break could go, late breaks on one of the final circuits could go or even a break on the final lap could set up a stage victory. With the stage only 132kms long, it's going to be flat out form the start and hard to control it. Greg Van Avermaet could be one for an attack, as could Ramunas Navardauskas. Tony Gallopin, Nathan Haas, Niki Terpstra or Tommy Voeckler are also the types of guys who will could try something on the last lap or two.
After that it really is a lottery with the early break-away picks, there's bound to be a few guys who fancy a few days in the KOM jersey who will be keen to get in the early break, Nicolas Edet, Jan Barta or Daniel Oss are the types of guys who could go up the road but it's impossible to pick.
Instead, I think it will come down to a sprint from a peloton of maybe 60-70 guys and Modolo, Boeckmans and Alaphilippe could fight it out for the win, but Daryl Impey and Eddie B may not be far behind. If Tyler Farrar can hang in there over the climb, then he could be a danger too in a field of non-sprinters like these.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Kris Boeckmans at 7/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 66/1 with Bet365 (Impey is I'll and doesn't start so will get stakes back. Instead have added 0.6pts on Jonas Van Genechten to finish in the top 3 at 9/1 on Betfair - 10.20am)
0.4pts each-way on Tyler Farrar at 20/1 with Bet365
Lay EBH to finish in the top 3 at 3/1 - 1pt to lose 3 on betfair
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Last Kms
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Le Bourget-du-Lac to Villars-Les-Dombes
Monday June 8th, 173km
An interesting start to the race then with Peter Kennaugh springing a surprise, attacking from his group of escapees just as it looked like the game was up. It was a strange finish to the race, Modolo and Boasson Hagen (annoyingly) filled out the top 3 but Bouhanni was only in 6th place, the climb near the finish must have deadened his legs a bit, it took him a long time to get to the front of the race. Valverde was a strong finisher in 8th place, showing he has good legs and is up for this. A crap result for the bets though, was very disappointing from Farrar and Boeckmans who didn't even finish in the front group.
This is a pretty straight-forward stage and likely to be one for the sprinters, although they do have a Cat 1 climb to get over along the way. It starts with a bang though, with a Cat 2 climb of the Col du Chat inside the first 3kms! After the initial climb, where we should see some escape attempts go, they hit flat roads for around 20kms before it starts to get lumpy again as they continue heading east and after 57kms they start climbing towards the Cat 1 Col du Cuvéry.
The Cuvéry is officially 8.7kms at 6.7% with a kilometre at 9.2% near the top. But from the valley they climb is nearly twice that length, meaning it is not an easy climb to get over. It is almost 100kms from the finish though, and it's unlikely that there will be fireworks on it, the GC men will have no interest in wasting energy on it. WIth the break up the road, it's likely they'll just roll up the climb and most of guys should be able to hang in there.
From the top they now turn south and descend for around 40kms and once on the flat roads again it's about 60kms to the finish in Villars-Les-Dombes, with the last 37kms being almost completely flat. The weather should be nice and warm but they'll have a headwind until over the climb and when they start heading west where it becomes a cross-wind that could cause problems. The finishing sprint will be in to a head-wind too.
The stage starts with a bang with a climb that should see plenty of attacking early on and those with designs on the KOM jersey will be keen to be involved as there are plenty of points on the Cat 1 climb of the Col du Cuvéry. The break shouldn't be given too much rope though as the sprinters will be desperate to make up for missing out on one of the few sprint opportunities of this race today. I expect the break to be reeled in in time for a sprint though so I'm going to focus on the candidates for that eventuality.
Nacer Bouhanni is joint favourite with a lot of bookies with Sacha Modolo at 7/2, although Modolo is as big as 5/1 with WillHill. Bouhanni did hang in there over that final climb today but it seemed to take a lot out of him as it looked like he wasn't even in the leading group for a long time, he only started to appear with about 1km to go, and even then he was a long way back. He failed to get up for the sprint though, finishing 6th, or 5th in the sprint. He seemed to lack the power to get up to the front, but the climb was probably the reason for this, he did better than a lot of other guys who got dropped and lost time. Tomorrow should be different though and much easier for Cofidis to control, and with Soupe, Simon and Senechal he has a strong lead-out to put him in the right place. 7/2 is tempting me.
Sacha Modolo 'won' the sprint today and he is sure to go close again tomorrow. I think the circumstances suited him today though with the tough finish, his fitness from the Giro really showed. Tomorrow is going to be different though with the flat last 60kms and I have a feeling that if it comes down to lead-outs and a flat sprint, Bouhanni might just take him. Modolo could take the yellow jersey with 2nd place at worst, so there is extra motivation there for him to try to get a top result, but he might have to settle for that 2nd place!
Edvald Boasson-Hagen got up there today to take 3rd, but again, the tough finish probably suited him better than others, tomorrow's flat finish may not suit him as much. Instead we could see the team work for Tyler Farrar, although he got dropped today, MTN looked very strong today with Cummins taking a big pull to set up Boasson-Hagen who did a very long sprint. If they can do that tomorrow with Cummings pulling then EBH leading Farrar to the last 100m he may take the win. It's a risky one with Farrar, who is more likely to crash than win the stage, but he won't get many better opportunities for a result than this.
Luca Mezgec punctured today on the run in to the finish, so we didn't get to see what sort of sprint he could have done, but he hasn't been at the top of his game lately so I'm not interested in him at 11/1.
Do we give Kris Boeckmans another go? He got dropped today on the run in, so wasn't involved in the finish, it was his young team-mate Benoot who sprinted to 4th place. I think his result today has given us a decent price to play with tomorrow though, he was 7/1 today, he is 12/1 for tomorrow.. With Ligthart, Gallopin, Van der Sande and Benoot to work for him tomorrow he could have one of the best lead-outs. If he can get involved in the sprint, he has the form and the speed to take a stage like this.
Simon Gerrans sprinted today to 5th place, but I can't see him sprinting again tomorrow, it will probably be Cort, who was dropped today. Julian Alaphilippe said that he didn't have good legs all day today and he is hoping he gets better in the coming days he said, that puts me right off him for tomorrow. Vangenechten, Valverde and Navardauskas could finish in the top 10, but won't podium.
I think this is a great opportunity for three of the fastest sprinters in the race to battle it out and I think with it more than likely to come down to a sprint finish we should hopefully get one, two or maybe even all three in the frame!
Recommendations:
2pts win on Nacer Bouhanni at 7/2 with Betfred
0.5pts each-way on Kris Boeckmans at 12/1 with Betfred
0.5pts each-way on Tyler Farrar at 20/1 with WillHill
Matchbets:
Boeckmans to beat Mezgec - 1.5pts at evens with Bet365
Bouhanni to beat Modolo - 1.5pts at evens with Bet365
1pt on a double of the above two at 3/1
Tyler Farrar to beat Magnus Cort Nielsen - 1.6pts at 11/8
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Stage 3
Stage 3 - Roanne to Montagny
Tuesday June 9th, 24.5km
So a much better day today with Cofidis and Bouhanni doing exactly what I expected of them to land the odds at 7/2. It was a sketchy finish that saw Orica-GreenEdge, Cofidis and Lampre fighting for position, but there aren't many who like a fight more than Bouhanni and he navigated himself on to EBH's wheel before easily accelerating past him for the win. Sam Dumoulin nipped up to take 2nd place with an impressive finish, two of the smallest guys in the peloton outsprinting Modolo and EBH.
Unfortunately we didn't get to see Boeckmans in action as he went down in a crash with Wilko Kelderman just as the sprinters were starting to get themselves in to position. It was a pity as Lotto-Soudal were starting to look serious near the front and had lots of men there. The other disappointment was Farrar leading out the sprint for MTN, what the hell is that all about, surely he can outsprint EBH?! Even Brian Smithy, a man who should know what's probably going to happen discussed it on Eurosport with CK that Farrar will probably be the man for the sprint today. Rather incredibly though, even though he finished in 121st after easing up he still beat Cort in the match bet as he somehow finished in 126th place. So with a winner cancelling a loser in the other match bets and all counted it was a 6.2pt profit day to get us back on track.
This should be an interesting stage. A team time trial over a very similar course and distance to the TDF TTT coming up in July. They take an S-shaped route from Roanne, climbing gently for about 8kms before doubling back on themselves almost to head to Perreux where the first time check is at the bottom of the long drag up to Montagny. The road rises upwards for the last 10kms, but as it rises only 200m or so, that's an average gradient of just 2%, nothing to really worry about. The forecast is for sunshine and warm weather, with a mild cross/head-wind for most of the day, possibly picking up a bit later in the stage but it shouldn't make much difference.
The starting order for the teams is below, it is interesting to see that BMC are third team off, almost an hour before Team Sky, who, with Pete Kennaugh in the Maillot Jaune get the priviledge of going off last.
Paddy Power were the first to price it up as always, they even have prices up for stage 4. Anyway, I'll come to that in good time, back to the TTT.
They made Etixx-QuickStep the 11/8 favourites with BMC the second favourites at 2/1. Now any team with Tony Martin in it will do well in a TTT, I've said it before that he on his own would probably beat most teams in TTTs. But what about the rest of the team on a course that is a little hillier than maybe he'd have liked? Well they have Stijn Vandenbergh, the big diesel engine, but he's not the best at time trials, Julian Alaphilippe who is still wet behind the ears when it comes to this discipline, Niki Terpstra, another diesel who won the windy ITT in Qatar at the start of the year, Martin Velits and Peter Serry who are two strong men, and Maxime Bouet and David De La Cruz who will be passengers.
It wouldn't be the best EQS time trial team by a long way, but is still a pretty strong unit with Tony Martin in charge. I think though they might struggle tomorrow and I'm even tempted to lay them to to finish in the top 3 if Betfair ever woke up and set up the market. They're on the drift though this evening, they are now as big as 7/2 with Skybet and PP have now gone 15/8 from 11/8 earlier.
BMC come here with a pretty strong squad as always, with former hour-record holder Rohan Dennis leading the World Time Trial Champions team. Dennis is joined by his team-mates from the Worlds last year, Tejay Van Garderen, Daniel Oss and Manuel Quinziato and they also have Michael Schar who was on the squad that finished 4th in the World's in 2013, and Joey Rosskopf who recently finished 4th in the ITT at the Tour of California. They look the strongest squad to me in this race and have a race winning backbone with the top 4 guys.
They stayed completely out of the race today, letting the other teams scrap it out at the front for their GC men in the last 10kms, they saved as much energy as possible.They are 5/2 with BetVictor, which I recommend taking, but if you're like most and can't get a bet on with them try Betfred who are 9/4.
Team Sky have a strong squad here, a good number of which are expected to be in the squad for the TDF. Froome is of course the driving force in the team and he'll be very keen to get his week off to a good start with a fast time. With some of his key rivals on weaker squads it's an opportunity for him to gain an early advantage. They recently won the TTT at Romandie, and they have Roche, Kennaugh, Stannard, Froome and Rowe from the team that won that they so they are a well-oiled unit that knows what they are doing. Paddy Power made them 12/1 this afternoon when they had EQS and BMC so short, I took a point each-way on that, they are now 9/1 on them which is still worth a bet I think, BetVictor are completely dodging them going 7/2!
Astana have a pretty strong team here too with Nibali, Westra, Taaramae, Boom, Grivko and Gruzdev and it is looking like the majority of that line-up could be coming to support Nibali in the TDF in July, so they will want to do well in this dress rehearsal tomorrow. If Nibali is still only at around 90% in terms of TDF preparation though, the last thing he will want is to hand Froome a nice pyschological edge here by losing a lot of time. I think they will go well, probably top 5, but I have a nagging feeling they might just use tomorrow as a sort of practice run and fine tune things for June.
Bora Argon caused a huge shock when beating Sky in the Trentino TTT and it is nearly the exact same squad that powered to victory that day, with Nerz, Huzarski, Voss, Mendes, Thurau, Buchmann and Salerno here again. They may not be household names, but they are led by the very powerful Jan Barta, three-time Czech TT Champion and 3rd placer in the long ITT in the TDF last year.
The problem is, I think they could just scrape in to third, but no bookie is offering a bet worth taking - they are either going the first two each-way only, 1/5 the odds on the first 3 (but they are only 22/1 with PP) or win only like BetVictor who are 50/1. Pointless having a win only market. So I think I'll leave them for now and see if Betfair ever get around to setting up a market for it. I've just spotted though that Bet365 do have a 'to finish/not finish' in the top 3 market though and that's worth a look for the bets I'm thinking of.
Orica-GreenEdge would normally be near the top of my list for something like this, but this is a pretty weak squad they have here. So weak in fact, they are 50/1 with Ladbrokes to win it, and Bora-Argon are 1/2 to beat them in a match-bet. I'm not touching them. Movistar are normally top 6 material on a stage like this, but it wouldn't be the greatest of Movistar TTT squads that are here, 7th or 6th for me. And really, I can't see any of the others coming near. Cannondale Garmin are probably the best of the rest with Talansky, Haas, Navardauskas etc but I think 9th or 10th for them too.
Overall then, I think BMC will take this but it could be pretty tight at the top. I fancy Sky to take a podium spot and it is between Astana, Bora-Argon and Etixx-QuickStep for the third spot on the podium.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Sky at 12/1 with PP (Take the 9/1 now). Interestingly, when I placed my bet I got 1/4 the odds for the first three, PP have changed the rules now and are only going 1/5 the odds.
1pt on Sky to finish in the first 3 at 7/4 with Bet365
2pts win on BMC at 5/2 with BetVictor
1pt on Bora-Argon to finish in the top 3 at 5/1
1pt on Etixx-QS to NOT finish in the Top 3 at 6/4 with 365
MatchBets
Sky to beat Movistar - 1.5pts at evens with 365
Astana to beat Cannondale (1/3), Sky to beat Movistar and Bora-Argon to beat OGE (8/13) - 1.5pts on the treble at 3.3/1 with 365
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Stage 4
Stage 4 - Anneyron to Sisteron
Wednesday June 10th, 228km
So BMC did the business today to land the odds at 5/2, but Sky were abysmal and their failure to finish in the top 3 or above Movistar meant the profit from BMC winning and the prediction that EQS would not finish in the top 3 disappeared! Sky were surprisingly poor - losing Poels and Stannard very early on, two of their big engines - had Portal not being watching the progress of all the other teams who went out way too hard and were losing riders early?
Surely as the last team on the road they could have taken that info in to account and tried to ensure they didn't blow up 3 of their riders so early? Nico Roche was hanging from very early on too and he did extraordinarily well to dig really deep and hang on to them, although waiting for him must have cost the team 20". Froome looked like he was struggling a little out of one corner early on but seemed to recover and looked strong over the rest of the stage, as did Kennaugh and Deignan.
BMC were superb though, some feared going out early was a disadvantage, were there to be shot at, but they held off all-comers. It was pretty tight at the top though with Astana and Movistar within 5" of BMC. Astana rode a solid race despite losing riders like Grivko after only 5kms. Etixx-QS were ragged, as I pointed out, too many poor TTers and passengers on that team today. Movistar were solid too and as a result, Nibali and Valverde must be feeling pretty pleased with themselves this afternoon, Valverde in particular, having a 30" head-start on Froome.
Bora-Argon were very disappointing also, but Cannondale, Lotto-Jumbo and Lotto-Soudal did reasonably good TTs. All that has seen a shake-up in the GC betting, with Froome now available to back at 10/3 and Valverde as short as 2/1, although he too is available at 7/2 with PP. Nibali is now in to as short as 4/1 and Van Garderen as short as 9/2 although he is as big as 13/2. I am tempted to back Froome now as a hedge at that price, I'll wait until tomorrow I think as tomorrow/s stage shouldn't change things you'd think. I had laid him over the weekend at 2.6 average, 3pts win to lose 5pts.
Stage 4 should be another day for the sprinters, but there is also the possibility that a strong break could make it as it looks like a good course for a break. It's a long stage at 228kms, so those who fancy their chances in the break better be prepared for a long hot day..
The first 100kms or so are more or less flat, there are about five little lumps along the way but only little hills, nothing more. After about 100kms they start climbing and hit two categorised climbs in quick succession, topping out at the 127.5km mark. First up is the Cat 3 Col de Lescous, which drags on for 20kms if you counted the whole climb from the bottom, but it's at a rather sedate 2% gradient, but the official climb is clocked at just 3.9kms at 4.7%. Almost straight away though they hit the Cat 4 climb of the Col du Pré-Guittard, a short and sharp little climb that's little more than 4kms also. That's followed by a 17kms descent and then an uncategorised drag that goes on for about 20kms, and it tops out with about 60kms to go, 45kms of which are descending gradually.
With just 13.8kms left to go there is one final little challenge, the Côte de la Marquise, a Cat 4 hill of 1.3kms at 6.7%. It could serve as a launch pad for some attacks from the usual suspects like Nathan Haas, but it's likely that we will see a sprint finish at the end. There's a little rise for 1km with 3.5kms to go, but the last 2kms are perfectly flat
It does look like it'll be a sprint finish as I said above but there is a small chance that a late attack on that final categorised climb could see some try their luck. Straight after it there is a similar climb that isn't categorised so it will be pretty chaotic and uncontrollable for a while and it might take a little time for the sprinters teams to gather their men at the front and a strong break could make it. A few possible candidates for that sort of effort are Nathan Haas as I mentioned earlier at 80/1, Tony Gallopin at 50/1 and Daniel Oss at 66/1.
Getting back to the sprinters though and it's hard to look past Nacer Bouhanni again at 2/1 with PP. He was 9/4 when they opened but that has been cut to 2/1. It's unlikely we will get much bigger than 9/4 or 5/2 and it's possible he goes off as short as 6/4, such was the ease with which he won stage 2. Cofidis were very strong at the finish with three team-mates in a train leading Bouhanni to the perfect spot. They played it cleverly too letting MTN and Lampre do all the work until the final 2kms and then suddenly came charging and barging their way through to set him up. And he was just different class when he got going, he was accelerating away from them all...
....Now that is what I had written last night as the odds were out so early from PP - but then this morning Lampré-Merida tweeted that Modolo would not be starting the stage due to him returning home for 'Personal reasons'. So I jumped in and doubled my stake. I did retweet the tweet from Lampré, hopefully some of you were sharp enough to pick up on the significance! I had him to win this stage and now his biggest rival is out. The 2/1 lasted for quite a while, but then the penny dropped and he was slashed to 5/4... he is 3/4 with BetVictor, but they are continually one of the worst for favourites (look at their 2/1 on Valverde for the GC), but there is now 13/8 available with Bet365 and if you have a Betfair account, someone is laying 2/1 if you want some of that.. Bouhanni has the best lead-out in the race, Modolo had the second best and were causing them some problems, but now they're out the way Cofidis's job has become far easier. I think he should comfortably take stage win no. 2 unless a crash happens or the break makes it. Take the 2/1 with Betfair or the 13/8 with Bet365.
Sam Dumoulin came with a brilliant surge late on to take 2nd, he came from miles back and had to siwtch from the right hand side of the road to the left in the last 100m and still was the fastest finisher of all the chasers. He should be up there again and now AG2R have seen the shape he is in maybe they will work a bit harder for him. He looks overpriced at 25/1, 16/1 would be closer I think. (Since then PP have cut him to 18/1, that still offers a bit of value I think given Modolo is out
Sacha Modolo never looked like passing Bouhanni Monday and Eddie BH came close again, but these flatter sprints are not really his thing, I think 4th or 5th again for him this time.
Julian Alaphilippe was only 15th today, I did warn that he says his legs aren't great at the moment. I'd leave him alone again for this stage until we start to see some improvement. Luca Mezgec got a bit closer, but Giant Alpecin were all over the place, they don't seem to know what they are doing in a sprint lead-out. He too is looking tired and without a decent lead-out he might struggle again. Kris Boeckmans hit the floor with less than 1500m to go on Monday, he didn't look too injured, just angry, but with the TTT in between he may not be 100% heading in to this sprint stage again.I really hate leaving a guy I've backed twice, especially when bad luck takes them out - he could be really fired up to make amends on this stage, but equally I don't want to waste any more money on him.
Alexey Tsatsevich was way off on stage 1, coming home 2'50" down, but he made his presence known on stage 2 sprinting well to 5th place. He has had 3 podiums this year, one of which was 2nd place in a stage of the Circuit Sarthe, Bouhanni was 1st, Dumoulin was 3rd. He looks big at 40/1. Jonas Van Genechten was up there for IAM Cycling on stage 2, sprinting to 6th place. I think that's sort of his limit though, I don't know if he can step up to a podium. Navardauskas and Martinez could top 10 it again, but I think this looks like stage number two for the boxer Bouhanni, but watch out for Dumoulin and Tsatsevich.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Nacer Bouhannni at 2/1 with PP (I recommend taking the 2/1 with Betfair or the 13/8 with Bet365, that won't last long either)
0.5pts each-way on Sam Dumoulin at 25/1 with PP (take the 18/1 with WillHill)
0.3pts each-way on Alexey Tsatsevich at 40/1 with Skybet
Matchbets:
Navardauskas to beat Alaphilippe - 1.8pts at 5/6
Bouhanni to beat EBH, Martinez to beat McCarthy + Dumoulin to beat Keukeleire - 1pt at 2/1, all with 365
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Stage 5
Stage 5 - Digne-Les-Bains to Pra-Loup
Thursday June 11th, 161km
That was a brilliantly exciting stage today as it looked for a long time like the peloton had got their calculations wrong and Martijn Keizer and Tosh Van der Sande had slipped the net and were going to fight out the stage win between them. They had traded to evens as with less than 30kms to go they held a 5 minute lead. But once the chasing pack got in to gear, the gap started to tumble and the two short hills before the finish killed them.
It was a fantastic last 10kms as there were riders all over the road, attacks going left, right and centre and even the GC men like Kelderman and Nibali got involved. In the end, even though it looked like he had been left behind on the climbs at first and he had no team-mates with him, Bouhanni pulled off a sensational last kilometre and a brilliant sprint to land the second stage for him and the third winning headline bet in a row for me. The P&L is only creeping up though as Navardauskas disappeared after taking a big pull coming in to the final categorised climb and Martinez was well off too.. I might just stick to a headline bet for tomorrow, I'd be well ahead!
As mentioned earlier, this stage is an exact replica of the stage 17 of the TDF this year, an opportunity for the riders here to get in a bit of practice for a stage that comes in the crucial last few days of the Tour in July. Two Cat 3s, two Cat 2s and a Cat 1 climb on a 161km stage will make it a tough stage and one that the GC men will have to be on their toes for towards the end.
After a relatively easy opening 34kms or so they hit the first climb of the day, the Col des Lèques, a 6km rise at an average of 5.3% which tops out with 40kms gone. This is quickly followed by the Col de Toutes Aures, which although the profile shows it rising for almost 20kms, the official climb is just 6.1kms at an easy 3.1%. After a quick 11km descent they now start heading north and start the climb of the Col de la Colle-Saint-Michel, which again, drags on for 18kms, but the official climb is 11kms at 5.2%, still a reasonably long climb and should start to split things up.
After another fast 10km descent they start on the foothills of the big climb of the day, the Cat 1 Col d'Allos, which is almost 35kms from the bottom, but given an official distance of 14kms at 5.5%. This is sure to be one of the major battle grounds of the week as Chris Froome's rivals may want to try attacking him here to get a head start on the descent knowing that he isn't the best descender in the world. And that's because the final descent of the day is a very twisty 16kms long that could see a furious plunge by some in an attempt to stay away to the finish.
The final obstacle is the Cat 2 climb to the summit finish at Pra-Loup, a pretty steady 6.2kms at an average of around 6.5%. It winds its way up the hill with four switchbacks, but the last 2kms are pretty straight and steady, averaging closer to 7.1%. If a good climber like Dan Martin can get the jump and get 30" or a minute at the top of the Col d'Allos, they might not see him again as they plunge towards the Pra-Loup.
It could also be a day for a breakaway winner, races are hard to control over terrain like this. There will be plenty of guys keen to get up the road early on but the opening 35kms or so are not that hard so it will be fast and furious. A good strong group who can get over the Allos with a minute or two could hold on to the finish. With the following stages also being very challenging we could see the GC men hold back a little on the final climb as it isn't hard enough to really blow things apart, and if so, that could fall in to the hands of the breakaway riders. Sky and BMC are sure to want to keep the break on a short leash though, Sky will want to make the stage hard to try to tee up Froome, BMC will want to try to keep the jersey in the team.
What did we learn from the TTT then with regards to who's hot and who's not? Well Froome seemed to be struggling at one point, he seemed to be having a bit of trouble holding a wheel out of a bend, but recovered to look the strongest of the team in the closing stages. Deignan looked strong in support of him but Roche suffered. Nibali and some of his team looked strong, but they too only finished with 5 riders. Valverde will be the happiest of the favourites though probably, having lost just 5" to TVG, 1' to Nibali and gained a nice 30" head start on Froome. TVG obviously had the strongest team, as was expected, in the TTT, but what sort of support they'll be in the mountains it's hard to know just now.
Roman Bardet's race is probably over now, as is Rodriguez's and Kelderman's, as they are now around a minute back on the favourites. They both stretched their legs today though, going on the attack inside the last 10kms but they came to nothing, but it did show though that they are feeling strong and keen to make back time wherever they can.
Dan Martin and Talansky looked strong in the TTT, but the rest of the team looked ragged and they are 45" back - not an insurmountable amount, but very difficult given the calibre of the guys above them. Cannondale Garmin looked strong today though coming in to the final climb and were close to the front of the peloton a lot at the end. Rodriguez's and Martin's task is difficult given their deficits, but never write them off as they will now probably be inclined to go on the attack more, and if they have the legs, could pull back 20 or 30" here and there. And with 10" bonuses available for stage wins, they could be right back in it.
As I mentioned earlier, this could be a sort of stage for Dan Martin to test himself. It's early enough in the race that he will be feeling fresh and he did look very comfortable in the TTT so must have good legs. The Cat 1 climb could give him a launchpad to attack on ahead of the Pra-Loup, but also he could wait for the final 5kms or so and if the favourites watch each other and Talansky, he could take a flyer. It's hard to know what sort of race form he is in as he hasn't really done much of late, and what he did before that was ruined by crashes and injuries. He rode Romandie with two broken ribs though and still managed to finish it despite being in a lot of pain. I took a half a point ew with PP at 33/1 this afternoon.
The finish isn't very hard, but it will be interesting to see if the GC men start challenging each other this early, with some tough stages to come in the next few days also. We may see some 'feelers' from Froome and Nibali, but I think Valverde and Rodriguez will sit in and wait for the finish - they would stand a good chance of winning the stage if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint. Alejandro Valverde in particular will relish this finish, he can sit in and let Froome, Nibali and co. maybe trade blows and digs, and just sit on the wheels as is his style. He can then pounce on the dash to the line inside the last 500m. He looks a solid favourite at 9/4 (was 5/2 for a little while), should it come down to a GC battle on Pra-Loup. Joaquim Rodriguez could be similar, but as he wouldn't have the best sprint he will have to attack with maybe 1km to go in an effort to try to drop Valverde and co. It's his trade-mark move, but at 8/1 with BetVictor, 9/1 with Bet365, I'd leave him, the 14/1 with PP is more attractive though.
Romain Bardet will be very disappointed in the TTT, but as I pointed out in my overall preview he was always going to lose lots of time with that AG2R team. He will now be desperate to make up time and will have to start as soon as possible as there are really only three stages in which to do so and the GC men may just hold back a little on this one in anticipation of tougher stages to come. AG2R are very bullish on their chances in the mountains and are looking forward to tomorrow's stage according to their Twitter feed. Bardet tried a dig today, was a little feeler of the legs. I think he will be active tomorrow in an attempt to strike an early blow to try to get back in to the race while he might still have some freedom. At the moment he is 18/1, if he goes 25/1 or bigger on Betfair I might have a go.
Chris Froome is the 11/4 second favourite with PP and that looks a bit short to me, but not as short as NoBetVictor's 7/4 - they are worst price on nearly every single runner again tomorrow, half the price of Paddy Power and worse in lots of cases. Yes, he will be raging after losing so much time on the TTT, and tends to try to win the first big mountain stages of races, but I'm not sure he'll be going all out tomorrow to get all that time back. He wouldn't want to put himself in to the red too soon with some tough days ahead. It was interesting to see Phil Deignan, who looked strong in the TTT, finish more than 6 minutes down today - either he was suffering after pulling too hard in the TTT or they told him take it easy today and roll home to save energy for the days ahead. It was quite chaotic and fast at the finish and I would think it was the latter. He will be an important ally for Froome in the next few days, as will Roche and Kennaugh who will be riding this as a dress rehearsel for the Tour maybe.
So how is the finale likely to unfold? Hard to say for sure, if it was anything like today, or the Giro, expect the unexpected again! I think the break will be reeled in on the Allos, and then all hell will break loose. There will be climbers attacking on the way up and daredevils attacking on the way down. The descent is twisty and narrow and the likes of Tim Wellens, Wilko Kelderman, Rein Taaramae, Rui Costa or Talansky could try something here. They will come off the big descent at 70-80kmph and will suddenly hit gradients of nearly 8% and even though the final climb is just 6kms it could be very fast indeed.
Watch out too for the likes of Julian Alaphilippe and Rohan Dennis.. Alap has been briliant this year, winning a mountain stage on Mt Baldy with similar gradients, but beating the likes of Dombrowski, Zoidl and Sagan is a long way from beating Froome, Nibali and Valverde! It will be interesting to see how he mixes with the big boys now - if he can hang in there, he would have a possible stage winning sprint in him. Rohan Dennis looks in great shape and the way he was talking today in the interview after the stage he is not ready to give up the jersey yet. He might find it really hard against these guys if they hammer it, but if Sky, or his own team, set a steady pace he could do ok. Remember he shocked Porte, Evans, Pozzovivo and Co. on the finish to Paracombe in the TDU, a climb that was only 1.2kms, but averaged 9.9%.
We could see some final attacks by the likes of Navarro, Adam or Simon Yates, Bardet, Caruso, Pantano or Machado in a late bid for glory, but I think Sky, Movistar, BMC and Katusha will keep the pressure on and the pace high and we could well see a battle between the GC men in the final kilometers. Rodriguez could try an attack in the final kilometre but I think they will be ready for him and I'm not sure he has the explosiveness of old to distance a field of this quality. I think that man Valverde will win the sprint to the line and take the Yellow jersey too. Dan Martin could be a danger on the climb, or even in the sprint finish for places.
Recommendations
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 11/4 with Will Hill
0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 33/1 with Betfred
0.3pts each-way on Roman Bardet at 25/1 with Bet365
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MatchBets
Navarro to beat Rolland - 2pts at 8/11
Machado to beat Peraud - 1.2pts at 5/6
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Stage 6
Stage 6 - Saint-Bonnet-en-Champsour to Villard-de-Lans
Friday June 12th, 210km
A fantastic win for Romain Bardet today, attacking just before the top of the penultimate climb and descending like a madman to steal 1’25” by the time they started the final climb, and with just 6kms left there was no catching him. So a nice 25/1 winner for us there and the fourth stage winning pick in a row. I might not pick a selection for tomorrow’s stage now to preserve that winning statistic!
Chris Froome attacked and blew things apart after Sky had pulled for seemingly forever, but despite all the whirling arms and spinning legs he didn’t really get very far. Tejay didn't panic and in the end easily rode up to him with Izagirre, with Tejay eventually sprinting past him for 2nd place and the 6 bonus seconds. Tejay is looking good for us at 10/1 for at least a podium too, but I think we can say goodbye to the Valverde bets. He cracked today rather surprisingly with quite a few kms still to go and lost 1'53". Nibali did his training ride as far as he could and then just pulled over and rolled in at his own pace. I did warn that this was likely to happen in my preview, there is just one goal in July for Nibs, no matter what he says.
There were two amazing rides by two of the bright young things of world cycling – Simon Yates in 5th and Louis Meintjes in 6th, just 10” back on Froome. Talanksy limited his losses and came in a little ahead of team-mate Dan Martin, but look at Michele Scarponi doing it for Astana in 8th place. Pierre Rolland rather spoiled a plan I had for him, more of that below, he rode brilliantly to finish in 9th place.
So Tejay has taken the yellow jersey by 17” from Intxausti (hands up who saw him being in this position!?), with Bardet sitting back in 3rd place as he had lost so much time on the TTT. The race is far from over, but I am still happy enough with my lay of Froome at 6/4, and my back of Tejay at 10/1. Froome didn’t look brilliant to me today and even TVG commented on it afterwards, saying that he noticed he seemed to blow up at the end and he was surprised he was able to go past him so easily. Of course Froome could be playing games, and he will do better on longer climbs, but there aren’t many long climbs in this race that he can use to his advantage. Going on today’s finale, TVG has him covered. But the recovery from Froome in Andalucia is always at the back of my mind.. he turned a ‘poor’ day in to a brilliant one in 24 hours.
There are so many riders now who have lost time and will be looking to impress ahead of the TDF that this could be a real bun-fight at the start of the stage. I think the GC men will be happy to let them go and take the pressure off for a day so they can go in to battle for seconds at the end of the stage, not wasting too much energy. There are two tough stages left after this one and lots to play for still – 5 riders are still within 45” of the lead.
At 210kms, this is the second longest stage in the race and with 11 climbs on the stage, 6 of which are categorised, it's going to be a tough day in the saddle. The three Cat 3s and the Cat 2 in the first 75kms are nothing to write home about, they shouldn't really cause any problems. After 113kms though the road starts to rise again for the longest climb of the day, the Col Du Rousset, which is almost 20kms long on the profile, but just 13.8kms long on the road book for the official distance, at an average of 5.4%. This is followed by about 40kms of undulating descending, interrupted by two uncategorised climbs before they start on the climb to the summit finish at Villard de Lans.
The final climb is just a Cat 3 as it is only 2.2kms, but it averages 6.2% so it could be one for the puncheurs like Gerrans to attack late on. The final climb to Cote 2000 saw a famous finish in the TDF in 2004 when a who's who of dopers fought out a stage win and Armstrong beat Basso, Ulrich, Kloden and Leipheimer.
It is also a possible day for the breakaway as it's such an undulating but not overly difficult day and it's not really a day for the GC men to do battle I think as the toughest climb of the day comes some 50kms from the finish and the final climb isn't very hard to really go for it. It is only 2.2kms, but some of it is not very steep at all and it flattens out a little towards the finish. There is a steeper ramp with 1500m to go for 500m that is closer to 10% and that could be where the race is won or lost, as long as it's not a solo rider coming to the finish.
I think the break has a pretty high chance of winning today, which makes picking the winner even more difficult of course as there are about 100 guys who could possibly go away in the morning.. It's picking the guys who will want to be up there and also will have the strength to maybe drop some accomplices on the Rousset, and have the strength to get over the two lumps on the run to the finish and the final climb to the finish.
I
have to start with a guy who should fancy it tomorrow and will be desperate to get up the road in this race and make an impression. Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler's squad are still desperately seeking a replacement sponsor for Europcar and they are under a lot of pressure to start producing the goods in an effort to attract interested parties. A big ride here in a home race will raise the profile ahead of the Tour. I was considering Rolland last night for this stage but now that he put in such an excellent ride today and as he's sitting just 1'35" back, he won't be let go.
The profile should suit Tommy though, the start will be fast and furious and difficult to get in the break, but I think he will be trying. Once in to their stride after 60kms, the first two climbs are no problem and he should be able to cope pretty well with a break's pace on the Rousset, possibly even looking to break it up. The finish will all depend on who's with him, but if there are no punchy, strong rivals he'd have a chance. He's 22/1 with PP, only 11/1 with 365, take the 22/1 if you have a PP account.
Tiago Machado had looked lively for Katusha in the last few days and he has been riding pretty well lately too. In the Circuit Cysliste Sarthe he finished 6th after getting in the race deciding break on a lumpy stage 4, a stage in which Rolland finished 2nd. He eventually finished 4th overall in Sarthe, just 7" off winner Navardauskas. He also finished 3rd overall in the Volta ao Algarve after some fine rides, taking 6th in the stage 4 won by Richie Porte, with Kwiatkowski, Izagire and Thomas ahead of him. He was only 13" back and was agressive that day on a profile not too dissimilar to this stage. It's a tricky one as it's hard to know who from Katusha might go up the road and he did seem to suffer today, but still came home in 35th place. I like his profile for this stage though at a very tempting 250/1 with 365, he's only 40/1 with PP! He doesn't do a lot of winning, but with Katusha going so well this year he's worth a small bet each-way.
Another outsider who has been riding very well lately is Jay McCarthy of Tinkoff-Saxo. The young Aussie has been in great form this year, finishing 3rd overall in the Tour of Turkey and 15th in Tour of California. He might fancy going on the attack tomorrow and he's a big price at 100/1 with Bet365.
Alejandro Valverde is favourite at just 6/1, but I just can't have him after today. Equally, I can't have Nibali at 33/1 with BetVictor or even the 100/1 with PP. Joaquim Rodriguez suffered a bit today, but didn't fare too badly, coming home just behind Martin in 12th, just 31" behind Froome. I wasn't interested yesterday, but today at 28/1, it got me a little interested.. that's a big looking price on a finish that might suit him better with the 10% ramp 1500m from the finish.. Julian Alaphilippe is second favourite tomorrow at just 10/1, and I can't understand why given he seemed to have a bad day today, losing 19 minutes. Ok, maybe he was saving himself for tomorrow, but it's possible too that all the racing and the travelling to the US etc is catching up with him and he's tiring. No interest in him at that price.
Simon Yates apparently was going stage hunting and Adam was the GC man, but Simon was brilliant today, whereas Adam lost 6 minutes.. Simon is too far up the GC to escape, but he could do well on the final climb. 25/1 best price is a bit tight for me though I think. I can't see Froome winning.. One last rider who caught my eye today was a rider who flies under the radar a lot but is a really solid pro - Bart de Clercq was completely ignored and overlooked today but he rode a fine stage to finish in 15th, just 45" back on Froome. He is looking like he is finding some form and landed his best result in a while in Catalunya taking 3rd place on the first stage after breaking away with Paterski and Rolland. He is 200/1 with Bet365 and that's worth a small interest.
It's a very hard stage to call, it really is. I've picked lots of outsiders above that may come nowhere, but for a small investment could give us some fun. Of the shorter priced ones though I like Voeckler and Gallopin, and at the price, I'll give Rodriguez a go to get something from this race.
Recommendations:
0.4pts e/w on Joaquim Rodriguez at 28/1 with WillHill
0.5pts each-way on Tommy Voeckler at 22/1 with PP
1.5pt win on Tony Gallopin at 14/1 with 365
0.1pt each-way on Thiago Machado at 250/1 with 365
0.1pt each-way on Bart de Clercq at 200/1 with 365
0.1pt each-way on Jay McCarthy at 100/1 with 365
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Matchbets
Rodriguez to beat S Yates - 1pt at 11/8
De Clercq to beat Valls - 1pt at 11/8
Alaphilippe to beat Gerrans - 2pts at 4/6
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Stage 7
Stage 7 - Montmélian to Saint Gervais Mont Blanc
Saturday June 13th, 155km
Where do you even start with today’s stage? I suppose we could start by saying that we came very close to a decent winner in Tony Gallopin, who gave it his all to be in the powerful break of the day, got dropped a few times, got back on and then attacked in the closing kilometres in an effort to steal the stage from the better climbers. Or we could start with Nibali, who turned ‘cracking’ and dropping out of it on the final climb yesterday, almost in to a stage win with a powerhouse ride from the very start of the race. Or Valverde who looked cooked yesterday, but also got in this break and for a long time on the stage was in the virtual Maillot Jaune, but he cracked on the final climb to hand it over to Nibs instead.
And then we have Costa. One of my favourite riders who likes it in the wet, I’m annoyed I didn’t pick him out last night. He looked to be struggling to cope with the climbers at times, but held in there until the last climb. I decided to have one hedge bet in the leading group with about 30kms to go and that was on Costa at 4/1, for 1 point. When Nibali attacked, it looked like Costa had nothing left. Nibali was trading at the bottom price of 1/100 (well over £2000 matched on him) while riding to victory in the last kilometre, when suddenly the camera bike made that tell-tale move that indicated that someone was coming up from behind..
I prayed it was Gallopin after finding a second wind, but it was Costa.. he cruised up, paused for a while, saw Nibali was cooked and then skipped away from him to stage victory. It was a brilliant win and a brilliant ride by all of the front guys, but I was pissed off with Valverde nicking 3rd in the sprint from Gallopin, blowing the each-way for any of you who backed him ew. Behind Dan Martin and Gadret came in pursuit of Simon Yates who was riding brilliantly to take 5th on the stage and move in to 4th place overall, just 35” behind Nibali.
And that’s the other thing about today’s stage – as bonkers as it was with the race starting more or less from the gun, and with furious racing all day, there’s still only 90 seconds separating the first 10 – an incredible stat given how the last stages have been all over the place. With such a hard stage to come tomorrow, it is still anyone’s race, and with the Dauphine, as we saw today, and on the final stage last year, anything can happen.
The previous stages may have seen some furious racing and big battles among the GC men, but this is the real deal with regards a possible GC defining day. FIVE Cat 1 climbs and a Cat 3 climb in 155kms will make this a really hard day as they head north-east to Mont-Blanc.
They have an easy start to the stage with a flat 27kms but that's it for the flat roads as the rest of the stage is either up or down all day. First up is the Cat 1 climb of the Col de Tamie (8.5kms at 6.4%), followed by a 13kms descent to the bottom of the next climb, the Cat 1 Col de la Forclaz (8.1kms at 7.8%). 20kms of a descent later they start their third Cat 1 climb, the Cote de la Croix Fry (11.2kms at 7%) where I think things will really kick off for real and Sky will try to blow things up.. We could see only a small group of 20-30 riders going over the top together. A very short 4kms descent then takes them to the only Cat 3 climb of the day of the short Col des Aravis (4.3kms at 5.8%).
After that they descend for almost 35kms, with a little rise about half way down on the rise to the town of Megève. As they start the climb to the finish they are met first by a very short, but very steep little climb at the Cote des Amerands, which is just 2.7% but averages over 11%, but the steep parts actually average over 13% for 2kms. That will hurt after 142kms, but they still have one more Cat 1 climb to get over on the run to the finish.
The climb of Le Bettex at Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc has never really been used in a major race so it will be a new experience for all bar those who have come here to recon the route. The climb is 7kms at 7.7% average, but there are some easy parts in it. The climb is pretty steady otherwise but does get steeper near the top and there are lots of the climb around 8-9%, with the final kilometre averaging closer to 9.4% with the last 200m over 10%.
This is a very tough stage and a hard finish. There are bound to be lots of guys who are interested in getting in the break of the day, especially guys after the KOM jersey as there are so many points on offer during the stage. It is a Saturday afternoon TV audience and the most prestigious stage of the race though, so expect an exciting stage from start to finish.
Today's stage was hard for everyone, especially the guys that were up in the break all day. The weather was awful, with some really heavy downpours, and there could be some really tired guys tomorrow. Chris Froome suffered today, he didn’t enjoy it in the cold and wet, but he should be better tomorrow on the longer, harder climbs (weather permitting!). Today’s stage was like an Ardennes classic with racing from the start over lots of different size hills, tomorrow’s stage is a proper GT mountain stage, much more his terrain. He is just 2/1 for the stage win, which is very, very short, but he didn’t have half as hard a day as the guys that were up the road today – Nibali, Valverde and Costa had a very hard day.
Sky seemed to be pretty anonymous today with Roche coming home in the grupetto some 36 minutes down and Deignan coming in 11 mins down, but DS knaven was putting a brave face on it afterwards, saying that they had both worked very hard earlier in the stage, Roche at the start and Deignan near the end, but then they must have sat up and rolled in, saving energy for tomorrow. I think they will make the stage hard tomorrow and we could be down to a very select group coming to the final climb. Froome will be smarting after today's stage, some of his big rivals for the TDF, Nibali, TVG and Valverde left him floundering today and looking very ordinary. I think he will go on the attack tomorrow, but I'm not sure about backing him at just 2/1.
Tejay Van Garderen looks pretty solid to me and I think he will be going all out to get back on the podium. With Valverde and Costa above him, it's very possible. Depending on what Nibali has left in the tank after today he might even move above him too. He will like this steady final climb and unless a break is fighting out the stage finish then I think Tejay will be right up there in the first 2 or 3. He was 9/1 when the market opened but is now just 5/1, not a great price now. He will be possibly in a situation where he is riding his ass off for the overall victory and may just be mugged for the stage win by someone else. I'd rather back him at 2/1 to win the overall than back him at 5/1 to win the stage.
Vincenzo Nibali could be anything tomorrow. He could be lively again, but he doesn't need to be - he has taken the yellow jersey and got a great days racing under his belt and scored a few pyschological points too. He can afford to sit in and let the others do all the fighting and attacking, he needs to save energy now and not get himself in to any trouble. On the other hand, he could struggle on this longer, harder climb like he did on Thursday, and he looked out on his feet at the finish today too, Costa easily went past him. Not interested in him at 20/1..
Romain Bardet is 10/1 and I would have been interested had he not come down hard today on that left hander. He will be sore after that you'd have to think so that puts me off him a little. Of course, he could be ok and he could slip away again like he did Thursday, but I'm a bit worried about him. He didn't look in great shape just before his crash, he was looking around for someone else to take up the chase after Froome.
Joaquim Rodriguez had a tough day today, he had an early mechanical which saw him fall off the back of the peloton very early just as things were exploding with Nibali's attacks and it took him a while to get back in. He did well though in the end to finish 13th, but he just seems to be lacking the power at the moment. I hope I don't regret not backing him after backing him Friday.
Dan Martin hid away today for most of the stage and then exploded away from Van Garderen's group as they hit the final climb. He looked strong and rode a nice rhythm all the way to the finish even though he had Gadret as an anchor all the way to the line. He even had the strength to sprint to the line at the end for 6th place to move him to 10th place in the GC. This sort of stage will suit him and the final climb is perfect for him too. He could attack from the GC group, what's left of it, with 4kms or so to go. Van Garderen could be riding for the overall and there may not be too many will be able to go with him. At 25/1 I am willing to have a go on him.
Simon Yates was excellent today and is now within 35" of winning the overall, with a real chance of beating those above him tomorrow if he attacks like he did today. He says that he is feeling great (obviously) and that he is going to give it a real good go again tomorrow. It's the guys behind him he needs to be worried about though maybe, he's got a 7" buffer on Tejay, and if on a really good day, he could sit on his wheel and possibly follow him all the way to the line. Unless Tejay takes the win and he finishes 3 places behind him he could well win the race. So that may be on his mind as he's riding tomorrow, he has a fantastic chance of a podium at worst and it may mean he rides conservatively in an effort to secure that podium spot. Or he could just throw caution to the wind in a youthful laissez-faire attitude and go for it. He is 20/1 with Skybet, but for some inexplicable reason they are going 1/5 the odds first three, instead of 1/4 the odds..
One rider I mentioned yesterday as someone I wanted to keep an eye on this week is Pierre Rolland. He rode brilliantly on the steadier finish of stage 5, to put himself well up on the GC, but then today he rolled in in the Gruppetto, 36 mins down. There were a lot of guys in that group, but I'm thinking he was happy to sit up once the big moves were gone, he could well have his eyes on tomorrow's stage, and now he is way down the GC he is no longer a threat. A big ride on live Saturday TV will do the team a power of good in their search for a sponsor. He could go in the break of the day early on or he could even attack on the Col de Fry in an effort to get a head start going to the final climb. He is 22/1 with PP and that's worth a bet I think.
One rider who flew under the radar today was Robert Kiserlovski of Tinkoff-Saxo, who came home in 12th place, just 13" behind Froome. He reported after that he had really good legs today and tried to go with the race winning move when he saw Valverde and Costa attack, but a rider in front of him blocked him and let the wheel go and they were gone. Tinkoff had quite a few men in the chasing group today right up to the final climb and with 2kms to go Kiserlovski took off and went in chase of Van Garderen. He says he is feeling strong and wants to move up the GC, maybe we could see him on the attack tomorrow. He was 80/1 earlier which I took, he is 66/1 now and that's still worth a little bet.
Rui Costa was excellent today, I'm not sure he can pull off such a performance two days running.. This longer climb may not suit him as much and he went pretty deep today. Intxausti, Talansky, Meintjes, Scarponi and Frank (had a hunger knock today) could all try their luck tomorrow too. I think Alejandro Valverde may struggle on the longer climbs again tomorrow, he has struggled when things got really hard in the last two stages, should be the same tomorrow.
A really hard stage to call tomorrow with so many stories in play. It will be flat out again and anything can happen. If it comes down to a test of the best climbers fighting it out for the last 7kms then I think Froome, Van Garderen, Martin and Yates could be the men to concentrate on. Kiserlovski and Rolland could be longshots, but I think Tejay will do enough tomorrow to move back in the lead in the battle for the GC, a lead he should possibly hang on to. Yates could run him close though.
**After finishing this I read some very interesting comments from Trek Factory Racing's DS Alain Gallopin about their performance today - he was really pissed off that the 6 men left in the team all came home in the Grupetto today, 36mins down. They had planned to get Ricardo Zoidl and/or Matthew Busche in the break Friday but they failed and he was not happy, saying “Honestly, to not have anyone in the top 50? I cannot accept this because they have the legs to be there”. With that in mind and with his words probably ringing in their ears they are sure to be fired up to try to get up the road tommorrow and at 200/1 for Zoidl and 300/1 for Busche it is worth a tiny investment on each of them.
Recommendations:
0.75pts each-way on Dan Martin at 25/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Robert Kiserlovski at 80/1 with PP (take 66/1 with PP)
0.3pts each-way on Pierre Rolland at 22/1 with PP
2pts win on Tejay Van Garderen for the overall GC at 9/4 on Betfair
1pt each-way on Simon Yates for the overall GC at 10/1 with Corals or PP
0.1pt each-way on Matthew Busche at 300/1 at 365
0.15pt each-way on Riccardo Zoidl at 200/1 at 365
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Matchbets:
Sky MB double - Kiserlovski to beat Kelderman and Sorensen to beat Serpa - 2pts at 6/5 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Col de la Forclaz Col de la Croix Fry
Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc
Stage 8
Stage 8 - Montmélian to Saint Gervais Mont Blanc
Saturday June 13th, 155km
A short-ish preview tonight as I am out for the rest of the afternoon and have to quickly bash something up! Great stage today, Zoidl gave us some excitement for a while and certainly probably will get a pat on the back tonight instead of an ear-ful of abuse from Gallopin after that rise. Tejay was excellent to ride a controlled finish and move in to pole position going in to the final stage. Nibali and Valverde blew up like I thought they might, but so too did Yates so he has slipped out of the top 10. Intxausti and Meintjes rode brilliantly to hang on and fight out 3rd place, Meintjes took 3rd while Intxausti moved in to 3rd place overall, just ahead of Costa.
So with Froome just 18" behind Tejay, and with Tejay looking strong and comfortable enough, it will be hard for Froome to dislodge him on a finish like this today which isn't too difficult. A small overall loss today of just over a half a point as the Tinkoff match-bet double landed at 6/5. The extra bet on Tejay is looking good too, to add to the 10/1 overall bet we are on at.
This stage is a strange one, in that it doesn't look like it's very difficult, but coming at the end of a hard week and with the race still in the balance it could be a chaotic stage. The first 116kms or so are more or less flat, although they do have to get over four categorised little lumps, but nothing difficult. The fourth of the four climbs though is the Lacets de Montvernier, an awesome looking climb that winds it's way straight up the side of the valley at a pretty steady gradient of around 9%. The climb features in stage 18 of the TDF, but as it comes nearly 50kms from the finish it is unlikely to have any bearing on the outcome of the stage.
With 40kms left to go the road starts climbing and after 25kms of a gradual climb they go over the Cat 3 Cote de Saint-André and it runs straight in to the bottom of the final climb to Modane Valfrejus. The climb is 8.4kms at 5.7% average, but the bottom 3kms are only 4.2% and the last 400m are downhill, so the middle 4kms average 7.7%, hitting a max of 9.6% 2kms from the finish.
It's not a very difficult finish and we shouldn't see a change to the winner like we did last year, but it could be an exciting finish to the race. It all depends on whether the race looks done and dusted and we could see a late break try to win the stage, or if there are only a handful of seconds in it then we could get a battle royale over the final 5kms.
This is what I wrote just over a week ago, and as it turns out, there are only a handful of seconds in it going in to the final day, with Froome just 18" behind Tejay. I still think that it will be very hard for Froome to turn it around and drop Tejay on a day like this. This stage is pretty easy up to the last 40kms though and as it's the last stage, expect BMC and Sky to work hard to keep the pace sensible and to work hard on the final climb too to set up their big men.
The final climb is not too difficult, averaging 5.7% for the final 8.4kms, but it's actually only 4kms of tough climbing between the 5.4km to go and 1.4km to go mark, averaging around 8%, and then it dips to the line for the finish. There are showers forecast for the whole afternoon which could affect how the day is run, but with there are very few twisty descents to cause problems.
I think tomorrow's stage will only come down to a handful of riders, the strongest climbers in the race. I think the break will not make it tomorrow as Froome will be desperate to take every second he can and Sky will ensure he is fighting for the 10 bonus seconds at the finish as well.
Froome and Van Garderen are clearly the best climbers in the race by a long way and I think they will be the centre of attention coming to the last 5kms. Froom looked very strong today, stronger than any day so far this week. When he attacked he just rode off the front away from Tejay and unlike in some of the previous efforts we've seen from him lately, he kept going and kept the gap. Tejay has improved how he manages himself on climbs this year and he can now maintain a solid effort over a climb rather than blowing up early like he tended to do in the past. They are the best climbers in the race and I think once Sky and BMC have set their guys up, the two of them will fight it out to the finish.
Froome seems to have the edge now as he is just that little bit more explosive than Van Garderen. I think he once again will string things out and then when it's just the two of them, I think Froome will accelerate away from him again to a stage victory. Can he make up 19 seconds to take the overall? It's possible, but it will be really hard - the climb isn't very hard and levels out to a slight descent near the finish which will give Van Garderen a chance to close the gap back up. Froome should take the stage and the 10 seconds bonus, Van Garderen is likely to take second and the 6 bonus seconds, so Froome has to win by just over 14 seconds to take the overall. I think Tejay is capable of restricting Froome to less than that on this finish and Tejay will hopefully hang on for the win. Tejay will be more interested in the time loss and will be just focused on going as fast to the finish line as possible so Froome should be safe in taking the win.
There is a possibility though that there could be a small bunch of strong climbers come to the finish together and if Froome and Tejay start looking at each other and playing the GC game there could be someone skip away and up the road. I had no idea what had happened to Dan Martin today, he just seemed to disappear off the face of the earth on the final climb and there was no indication given whatsoever on the TV coverage as to what happened. As it turns out, he punctured at the bottom of the final climb and fell out of contention just as the race was hotting up. I think he rode that climb at a very fast pace as he suddenly appeared out of nowhere going really fast to take 13th on the stage despite that.
He is clearly going well then and is the kind of guy I think who will be with Froome and Van Garderen at the finish and can attack them if they look at each other a bit too much. At 16/1 with betfair he's worth another go I think. Joaquim Rodriguez is another that seems to be getting better day by day and this is a sort of finish that he should like. Again, if the front two mark each other out of it and Froome maybe lacks a little punch after Saturday's effort, Rodriguez could attack away from them at the finish to take the stage.
Alejandro Valverde is an interesting one as he seems to be going pretty well at times, but he struggles on the longer climbs when the pace is high. Tomorrow's final climb is much shorter and not as hard and it could well be that we see Valverde recover after his poor ride today. I say poor, but he was still 17th on the stage, not a bad performance by any means. He may find it hard if Sky really blast it for the first 3 or 4 kilometres or if Froome really explodes away again. But if the race comes to the finish with a small bunch, his sprint could win it for him.
Romain Bardet had a tough day Saturday after crashing Friday but finished the stage very strongly with Vuillermoz - he rode very well Thursday, he could go well again tomorrow. Intxausti and Costa could also be two that might attack away on the last climb if the top two are marking each other too much. SImon Yates seems to be suffering now after a hard week's racing and ordinarily I'd have thought he'd have a chance on this finish, but the way he was yo-yoing and getting dropped Saturday has put me off him. One last guy I might give a chance to tomorrow is Daniel Navarro - the Cofidis leader hadn't had a great week up until today then got in the big break of the day and rode well. He hasn't really impressed much and I think he could be looking to try one last thing before the end of the race. He could be one for a late attack out of the favourites group also.
With TVG trading at 1/2 on Betfair I think I will hedge out a little of my bets on him to win the overall, I have a half a point each-way at 10/1 from before the start and 2pts at 9/4 from Saturday, so I am going to lay 3pts to cover my stake at 1.57 to lose 1.7pts of my profit if he does win.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Chris Froome at 2/1 on Betfair
0.75pts each-way on Dan Martin at 14/1 with PP
0.25pts each-way on Daniel Navarro at 66/1
Lay 3pts out of my bet on Tejay Van Garderen at 1.57 to lost 1.7pts
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Matchbets:
Martin to beat Valverde - 2pts at 8/15
Martin to beat Valverde and Navarro to beat De La Cruz, 2pts double at 6/4 with 365
Froome to beat Van Garderen, Meintjes to beat Rolland, Martin to beat Valverde, Kiserlovski to beat De Clercq - 1pt on the acca at 3.1/1 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
We may be missing the likes of Quintana and Contador, but two of the top four in the betting for the TDF are here in 11/4 second favourite Chris Froome and 11/2 4th favourite Vincenzo Nibali. There are a whole host of guys sitting in behind hoping to do a Talansky and upset the favourites. So where will it be won? In the TTT? On the stage 5 finish to Pra-Loup, the stage replica of stage 17 of the TDF? By a breakaway rider who snags enough time on the lumpy and wild stage 6 or by the strongest climber on the brutally hard stage 7? Or will it all come down to the final stage again and maybe the bonus seconds won on the line along the way? It's a wide open race with lots of opportunities to make and lose time and we should see lots of agressive racing, particularly over some of the shorter length stages.
Chris Froome had been installed as the 5/4 favourite with Skybet (11/10 with PP) and he's a hard one to work out for this race. Yes, of course, on his best form he shouldn't fear anyone in this field. He is one of the best climbers in the world when he is at the top of his game and has a strong squad with him to help out on the road and in the TTT. He probably would have won this race last year if he hadn't crashed, he was incredibly strong in the first two stages, his repeated attacks on stage two saw off all bar Contador and he looked like the most likely winner after only two stages. But the crash did hamper him and he struggled from there on and when Contador attacked him later in the race he had no answer.
This year has been a strange one for him again, He started his season at the Vuelta a Andalucia and was caught out by Contador on the Alto de Hazallanas and it looked like he was out of the race, only to bounce back the next day and destroy Contador and set up his overall victory (right). He then fell ill again before Tirreno so didn't race for a month until he lined up in Catalunya. That was a disaster for him though, finishing in 71st position. He then crashed in Fleche Wallone but headed to the Tour de Romandie a week later. It started well for him with a win in the TTT, significantly where Roche, Stannard, Rowe and Kennaugh also were part of the team.
It was all going fine for him until the second last stage, but when Pinot and Zakarin attacked, despite being the one doing all the chasing he looked very one-paced behind, Zakarin held his advantage for the last couple of kilometres. Still, it looked like it was still going to be his race for the taking, I think he was something like 1/5 to win going in to the final TT. But then he rode a very disappointing TT, finishing down in 13th place, losing the race to Zakarin and even Spilak took 2nd. It was a disappointing last two days from him, to lose the race to those two Katusha boys was disappointing, although they seemed to be riding at extraordinary levels in that race.
He once again headed to Mt Teide in Tenerife for his altitude training though and apparently he is in really good shape. I'm not sure that will be good enough though, he will have his work cut out for him this week with some quality riders taking him on. The 5/4 was way too short, the 5/2 Paddy Power went Friday afternoon was much better, that didn't last long. I took 2pts of that and immediately laid it off on Betfair at 2.86 to give me a free bet to win 1.2pts on Froome. I should have taken more as it looks like I could lay more (and am trying) around the 6/4 level.
Vincenzo Nibali is following the same route as he did last year with regards the Crit and the TDF and if he is at the same sort of level of fitness and preparedness as last year then he may not be challenging for the win this year. 8th in the prologue last year, 13" back on Froome, it was the closest he came to the leaders as the very next day he lost 27" to Froome and Contador when he was unable to go with their relentless attacking in the last few kilometres. On stage 7 he again lost 38" to Contador as the roads got steeper again and another 30" to Contador in the last stage to finish some 2'12" behind Talansky. That was still good enough for 7th place overall though, so not a bad result at all for someone who was clearly working to a program that came to fruition in July.
He hasn't raced since Romandie where he was off the pace also, finishing 1'19" behind Froome, but has done his usual high-altitude training block in the last weeks. The training focused on long miles and lots of rides, building the base levels required for an endurance event like the TDF, but it may leave him a little slow compared to the speedy guys, like we saw last year when Froome went in to overdrive. He does the high intensity stuff between the Crit and the TDF.. I think top ten for sure, but don't think he'll be stepping on to the podium.
Alejandro Valverde leapt out at me when PP came out with their prices early this week at 12/1. As soon as I did some research on the route and saw that bonus seconds were available on all stages bar the TT, he immediately came in to my reckoning. Add in the fact that he has been in fantastic form, possibly the best form of his career, in the classics and that he took three stages on his way to second place in Cataluyna and I just thought 12/1 was a massive price.
I think he will be highly motivated for this race and it's a race that he is capable of winning. With no individual TT and a team TT that Movistar should do ok in and he should be right in the mix. Add in the fact that several stages suit his punchy style and the fact that the likes of Froome and Nibali will not be at 100% on the harder climbs should see him hang in there with them I think on all the climbs. Another thing to bear in mind too though is his motivation with the TDF around the corner. With Quintana not exactly showing signs of being in top form this year, Valverde has been making mutterings about wanting to be joint leader at the Tour.. He can't have too many Tour's left in him so if he wants to persuade the Movistar management to make him a protected rider and not a workhorse in July then he will need to put in a strong ride here.
He looks a solid bet to me, and it looks like the bookies finally realised that as he has been slashed in to just 4/1 with most, 5/1 with Boyles and Corals. Of course the value is gone now, but he should be still worth backing at 5/1 each way, I think a podium is very likely. It might be worth waiting until after the TTT on stage 3 as he may drift out in price if Froome puts some time in to him.
Tejay Van Garderen is best price 10/1 and he comes here after a pretty disappointing season so far. Ok, he took 2nd in Oman, but that was down to a good ride on the only important stage of the race. Since then it's been pretty average from the TGV - 16th in Paris-Nice, 30th in Catalunya and 11th in Pais Vasco. Catalunya was ruined by a disastrous stage 3 though where he crashed and lost more than 15 minutes. He did manage to bounce back the next day though when taking advantage of the Porte/Contador stand-off to skip away to a good stage victory.
Pais Vasco doesn't suit him though but these steadier climbs are more to his liking, and with the TTT on stage 3, his BMC team could put him in to a strong position heading in to the crucial mountain stages. He's one for the shortlist but maybe might lose out to punchier riders who steal time from him at the finishes of some stages, 10/1 is just about backable each-way.
Andrew Talansky is the reigning champ, but I can't see a repeat this year. Talansky rode brilliantly last year to steal the win, but that's what it was really, a win stolen rather than that he was far better than everyone else. He hadn't started very well, but to be fair, he kept plugging away and got himself close enough to be able to pounce on the last day. I can't see a similar sort of thing happening again so it will have to come down to him beating the likes of Froome, Valverde or Nibali on the climbs, something I can't see happening. The 12/1 doesn't appeal to me at all - he was off the pace in Paris-Nice, Catalunya and Pais Vasco and didn't even finish the first stage of California with illness. He did return to riding two weeks later though and only went out and won the US TT championships, but to be fair, the comeptition was pretty poor. 6th to 10th for me.
Garmin Cannondale have a second string to their bow though in Dan Martin, should the opportunities arise or Talansky is not at 100%. Martin has won Catalunya in the past, so knows what it takes to win a week-long stage race, but he is of course mostly known for his classics wins these days, having lifted Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Lombardy.
He hasn't done much racing this year and was off the pace in Catalunya and Tirreno, although he put in some solid performances in Catalunya on stages 3 and 4, finishing 3rd and 4th. His two biggest goals of the year, LBL and FW he crashed out of, so he's bound to be fired up to test himself and go for stage victories. He is planning on riding the TDF for the first time in two years (fingers crossed for no crashes!) so he will be stepping up his preparation this week. He looks big at 80/1 but I think it will take a breakaway win for him to win the race outright and that's a big ask. 8th to 12th for me.
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Roman Bardet has been riding solidly this year with 9th place finishes in Romandie and Trentino. In between he placed 6th in LBL, an excellent result on a race he had said he was hoping to win. The lack of a TT will help his cause, but the TTT will still cost him time, AG2R would be one of the worst teams here for this discipline. He has big ambitions and he has shown plenty of promise in the last few years to suggest a big breakthrough is coming.
He rode very well last week in the GP Plumelec, helping set up the win by Geniez, so is looking to be coming in to good form at the right time. He says he is "only at 90-95%, like everyone else", but I think he will climb with the best here and could cause a few surprises. The team's 'Service Course' headquarters is in the area so he has that extra bit of motivation. He could make the top 6 here at an alright looking 40/1.
Joaquim Rodriguez is getting on in years but he has plenty of life left in those legs yet! After an indifferent start to the year, he upped his game a lot in Pais Vasco, winning 2 stages and taking 2nd in the brutal ITT, and that was enough to give him overall victory. 4th in FW and 3rd in LBL showed he still has it, but he hasn't raced since then, 7 weeks ago. That's a long break from racing and I'm worried about what sort of form he'll bring here. He is preparing for the TDF and I wouldn't be surprised to see him working for Caruso this year as he fine-tunes his preparation for July, like he worked for Moreno last year. The course suits him though, and the time bonuses will be to his advantage if he can stay with the best climbers and attack them near the finish.
Bauke Mollema could be a dark horse here.. The TFR man rode very well in Tirreno, going after Quintana on Terminillo, leaving Rodriguez, Contador and Uran in his wake to secure 2nd place on the stage and 2nd overall on the GC. In Pais Vasco he rode well, up until getting sick, taking a fine 2nd place on stage 4 to Arrate. He took a month off for altitude training but did come back to ride the Tour of Norway, so he has got some good racing in to his legs in the last few weeks, something which some of his rivals have not done.
He has finished on the podium in the Tour de Suisse for the last two years, so it is interesting, given the lack of talent at the TDS this year, that he has decided to do the Crit this year. He ranges from 14/1 to 25/1 with Bet365 and that might be worth a small bet each-way if you fancy him.
Another rider who is surprisingly skipping the TDS is Rui Costa. The former World Champ has won the race for the last three years in a row, but this year has decided to skip it and go to the Criterium instead. It is because he is looking to prepare for the TDF in a different way this year, but if he can bring the sort of form that saw him win at this time of the year three years running then he is sure to go well. Lampré-Merida have a reasonably strong team for the TTT so he shouldn't lose too much time, but it may be that we see him stage hunting if he finds himself too far back, he's not going to solo away from Froome, Nibali, Valverde and co. and win by a large margin. Stages 6 and 8 look like two stages to me that he could fancy.
As I mentioned in the intro, it's been a funny old week in Lotto-Soudal world, with the management basically saying they've had enough of JVDB and his below-expectations performances. In Tim Wellens they may be looking to the future though. The young Belgian won the Eneco Tour last year and also took two 2nd places in last year's Giro, one on the uphill finish won by Michael Matthews on the day the crash blew the race up at the bottom of the climb. He rode well in Paris Nice to finish 10th, had a hit and miss Pais Vasco where he lost a lot of time on stages 3 and 4 before finishing 2nd on stage 5 with a brilliant ride in the break, only to be beaten by Landa. He abandoned the next day due to illness though. He should go well here but I think 8th to 12th or so is the best he can hope for.
The other Lotto team, Lotto-Jumbo NL, have Wilko Kelderman of whom many have very high hopes. The jury is still out for me, as although he has ridden well and took good results in Paris-Nice (15th) and Catalunya (9th), I don't think he'll finish much higher in this race. He hasn't raced in 6 weeks and he could be a bit ring-rusty. The 40/1 on him is about right, the 14/1 with Corals looks like a typo it's so poor.
Pierre Rolland has been going ok this year, winning the Vuelta a Castilla Y Leon with a great solo victory on the 3rd stage, beating Anton and Intxausti but then went to Romandie and the Europcar TTT badly let him down on the very first stage, they lost over a minute to Team Sky. It started to fall apart for him though in the rain on stage 4 won by Stefan Kung, and he eventually finished over 9 minutes down. He apparently has targeted this race though and is looking for a stage win, I think we could see him in lots of breaks in the latter half of the race. Not a GC bet though I think.
Others of note? Matthias Frank also skips the Tour de Suisse this year in favour of the Crit and he is IAM's main man for the GC this week. A solid, but second division GC man though, he will be 10th to 20th at best I think. I can't see him pull off a result like his second in the TDS last year, the TTT should scupper his chances to start with. Julian Alaphilippe has been sensational this year, but can he pull it together for a stage race of this quality? Well he showed with his victory on Mt Baldy and his 2nd place overall in California last month that he is definitely getting there. Ok, beating Sagan on Mt Baldy isn't the same as beating Froome, Valverde or Nibali, if he manages that he deserves to win the Critérium! He could well be stage hunting here though and with the fact he is not going to the TDF (Vuelta instead), he should be going all out here knowing he can have a rest after.
The Yates brothers Adam and Simon ride together here and it will be interesting to see what the dynamic between them will be - will they both be riding for GC? For stage wins? For each other? OGE say they are here for stage wins, and ordinarily you'd expect OGE to possibly put them in a great position after the TTT, but it's a weaker looking OGE TTT squad that has come here, they are missing all their big engines, it looks a team of stage hunters.
JC Peraud finished 2nd in the TDF last year, but being the age he is (just turned 38), he has to time his peak to July and not now, expect him to ride well, but not be challenging. After that, watch out for Tony Gallopin who could score a stage win. Louis Meintjes and Jarlinson Pantano are two climbers I'm looking forward to seeing in action, they could cause a few surprises. Rohan Dennis will be working for TGV but if TVG's challenge falls away he could go in breaks later in the race.
Decision time then.. It's a hard one to call with doubts and uncertainty about the condition of so many of the protagonists. I think Froome will be right up there and could well win this race but his price is a bit short for me right now. In fact I'm happier to lay than back at 6/4. I think Nibali will be fine-tuning and although will be going as hard as he needs to, may not be good enough just yet. Joaquim Rodriguez may find some of the longer climbs a bit hard if Sky really push it, but if he can hang in there he could nick some stage wins with his strong finish and could move right in to contention. TGV could be in the best position of all the GC leaders after the TTT and if he can ride defensively for the rest of the week he could come close to winning this. But I think Alejandro Valverde has a great chance of winning this race, he has been in superb form this year and the course really suits him. I'm pretty happy with my 12/1 (I can cash out already for a profit) but the 5/1 that's still available is still worth a bet.
Recommendations:
1.5pts each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 12/1 with PP (take the 5/1 with Boyles or Corals)
0.5pts each-way on Tejay Van Garderen at 10/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 25/1 with Bet365
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