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- Published on Monday, 27 April 2015 23:46
Tour de Romandie 2015
April 28th - May 3rd 2015
So the Ardennes Classics have come and gone, and have been pretty boring and disappointing to say the least. That is to say, they were boring and disappointing from a fans point of view as they never really delivered what they promised, with Kwiatkowski winning a bunch sprint in AGR and Valverde just grinding all the others in to the ground in F-W and LBL.
I didn't mind though, I had an excellent Classics season, with Degenkolb winning Milan-San-Remo at 14/1 (Matthews 3rd e/w at 28/1), Thomas winning E3 at 14/1, Van Avermaet 3rd in Flanders at 10/1 e/w, a 29pt profit on Paris-Roubaix with Degenkolb winning at 10/1 and Van Avermaet 3rd at 16/1 and a bunch of other bets, Matthews each-way at 9/1 in Amstel (and Valverde to finish in top 3 at 5/4), Valverde to win FW at 10/3 and LBL at 3.8/1...
It's time to start looking ahead now though to the important stage races to come, with the Giro less than two weeks away and the Tour de France not far off also. First though we have the Tour de Romandie, an important prep race for the GC men looking to kick in to gear in the coming months.
Froome is the defending champion of the race and is going for the hat-trick of wins, having won it in 2014 and 2013. Last year he beat Simon Spilak and Rui Costa, making it the exact same podium as in 2013. Two years ago Froome won the Prologue to set himself up for victory, but last year he was well off the pace in the prologue won by Michal Kwiatkowski, finishing down in 13th place. He made up for it though on stage 3 to Aigle, where his devastating attack shook off all bar Spilak and they won by 57". He sealed it with a powerful display in the final TT, where he pipped Tony Martin by 1".
This race has a long history, having been first run in 1947. The race traditionally starts with a Prologue and ends with a TT and this year is no different and it passes through some stunning countryside in the Romandie parts of Switzerland.
The race has been won by some legends of the game with Stephen Roche having won it 3 times and Eddy Merckx, Toni Rominger, Pascal Richard, Laurent Jalabert, Joop Zoetemelk, Andy Hampsten and Phil Anderson have all won it in the past. In recent years Wiggins ('12), Evans ('11 & '06), Kreuziger ('09) and Simon Spilak ('10) have been victorious also.
An interesting stat for this race is that from the years 2011 to 2013 the winners have gone on to win the Tour de France - Froome, Wiggins and Evans, with Froome crashing out of the TDF last year to break that sequence. With Froome squaring off against Quintana, Nibali and Pinot, there is a good chance that the winner could indeed get that sequence back on track this year.
The Route and Stage Predictions
As mentioned above, this race normally has a very traditional pattern to it, starting with the Prologue, a mix of mountain stages and bumpy flat-ish stages and then the final TT. This year though, with a nod to the upcoming Tour de France, the organisers have changed the opening prologue to being a Team Time Trial.
It is a course that could be suited to the likes of Froome who can time trial better than most and his climbing isn't too shabby either, but the summit finish on the 5th stage should suit the likes of Quintana too - it's one of the hardest stages that has ever been in the TdR. There are plenty of mountain peaks along the route, but there are two stages that could well end in a sprint finish, or maybe be won by a successful breakaway. The final TT actually breaks from tradition with a new route around Lausanne and not starting and finishing in the football stadium, like it usually did.
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations. Stage information and predictions will be added closer to each stage.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Vallée de Joux to Juraparc, 19.2kms
Tuesday April 28th
It looks like the organisers decided that they would ditch the normal prologue for a TTT in an effort to get as many of the top Tour de France teams here as possible. This can be a good practice for the TTT in the upcoming Tour..
They start by heading south-west for 2kms, then double back to take the lake shore road for the next 15kms of flat, straight roads along the lake. It will be very fast up until then, but then right at the end they face a little challenge that could make all the difference. With 3kms to go they have to get over the little climb of the Col Du Mont d'Orzeires which is 2.2kms long at an average of just 2.5%. The top comes with 750m to go, and then it's a really fast charge down a 4.3% gradient descent to the finish.
There are no real challenges on the stage, the climb isn't very difficult at all and it will be all about power and cohesion. One team that has power and cohesion in spades are the Aussie boys of Orica-GreenEdge. They come here with a very strong squad with the intention of winning this TT, they are pumped up for it and they are confident. Hepburn, Lancaster, Gerrans, Yates, Albasini, Tuft, Bewley, Santaromita.. They are a perfect mix of youth and experience, the likes of Albasini and Tuft will call the shots and keep them in line. This course is not too technical and will be perfect for them to put the power down, and the little rise up near the finish shouldn't trouble them at all. I think they have a solid chance of a really big ride tomorrow. The 3/1 with PP is worth taking, they are only 9/4 with Bet365.
Etixx-QuickStep won't be far behind and their team bus must be buzzing at the moment again after a disappointing Classics campaign, rescued by Kwiatkowski's win in AGR. With Kwiat's win, then Alaphilippe's superb showing in FW and LBL, and then Cavendish's text-book team shows delivering two stages in a row in Turkey, they are suddenly feeling much better about themselves.
Tony Martin could probably finish in the top 6 of this TT all on his own, but together with Uran, Meersman, Serry, Golas and Co. they should be capable of a very strong showing too. Uran is sure to have them fired up to try to get him a head start over Froome and Quintana and Nibali, so expect a top 3 at worst from them. 5/2 is a little short for me though win only.
Team Sky? They are 9/2 with both bookies but could it be 3rd place they are fighting for rather than 1st or 2nd..? With that in mind, there isn't much value. Froome is an unknown quantity as to what he can bring to this challenge, but with Thomas, Stannard, Rowe, Kennaugh, Roche etc they should have the makings of a pretty decent TT squad. They've disappointed when short prices before though in recent times, I'm going to pass.
BMC could be a team to shake up Orica and Etixx, with the likes of Dennis, Flakemore and Kung. But with Bet365 paying out on only 2 places and Paddy Power not even offering each-way betting then there is no appeal in backing them to win at that price.
Astana don't look good enough, neither do Movistar, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Quintana lose more than 20" to Uran after this stage. I can't see any Bora-Argon type surprises though in this field, OGE look the bet though, or maybe the 1/3 the odds for the first 2 on BMC with Bet365. Not a day for big stakes though.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Orica GreenEdge at 3/1 with PP.
For a bit of fun, the favourites for their respective match-bets with Bet365 all look like they could land, so I've put them in an accumulator that pays 12.85/1 - 1pt on that to see how it goes..!
MAP
PROFILE
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Apples to Saint-Imier, 168.1kms
Wednesday April 29th
A lumpy stage, typical of the Tour of Romandi that see the riders peel away from Apples in the south and put it in the Granny Smith ring for some of the climbs along the way. Let's hope they have some juice left for the final climb of the day or the break might just pip them to the line.. Ok, enough of the awful Apples puns, but I just can't believe I had not known there was a place in Switzerland called Apples..
Anyway, back to the stage preview.. Mainly heading north-east, just above the shores of the Lac de Neuchatel, it starts relatively calmly as they head down the valley for 40kms until they reach Montagny on the shores of the lake. They then turn left and start climbing up in to the hills above the lake. First up is the Cat 2 Col des Etroits, which is long at over 11kms, but only averages 4.8%, so it isn't too hard.
After a fast descent down to Fleurier they run along a plateau for 15kms before starting the next climb of le Haut e la Cote, a nasty pinch at 8.1% average over 3.8kms. At the top, they will have covered about half the distance, then run along another plateau for about 20kms, taking in a little uncategorised top along the way, before descending down to the bottom of the Col des Pontins, a Cat 2 climb of 4kms at 8.6%. Then a 19kms descent takes them to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Col de Vue Des Alpes, a tough Cat 2 climb which averages 6.7% over 8kms. We should see the likes of Sky, Movistar and maybe even the likes of OGE and Etixx-QuickStep push it hard at the front of this climb to thin down the peloton to give their men a shot at the finish.
Because, once over the top there are just 17kms to go, 12kms of which are descending, with the final run to the line flat, with a little rise up at the finale. I think the GC leader's team will work to keep the jersey and the likes of the teams mentioned above will do their best to strip it down to a bunch of 30 riders or less who can fight out the finish. We could see late attacks go on the Vue des Alpes, riders looking to steal a little advantage over the top that they can maybe try to extend on the descent and hold off a disorganised chasing group all the way to the line. Someone like Vincenzo Nibali, Michael Albasini or Jacob Fuglsang for example.
Paddy Power had priced up this market since Monday evening and it really is the kind of thing that all bookies should be doing. The course and the runners are all known, the TTT is really not going to make much difference to the outcome of the race, why not price it up early?
Really annoyed to have lost today's bet by 0.63 seconds, when Etixx-QS and BMC were nowhere near beating them, I thought it was in the bag. Sky only came and beat them right at the death. Was pretty close with the 8-fold also, if you exclude OGE just being beaten, it was 1/7 shots AG2R who let it down, looks like they had problems early on as they were down to 5 men a good way out.
Of course the early winners in the GC stakes are Froome and Thomas who now hold a 40" lead over Quintana, a 17" lead over Nibali, a 14" lead over Uran and a 5" lead over Špilak. It's far from over at the top but I can't see Quintana pulling that sort of gap back. Depending on whether Uran decides to go for it all week, or just use the race as Giro training, then he could be very much on for a podium. Špilak is also in pretty good shape after an excellent TT by the Katusha boys. Latest updates in the prices tonight have seen Froome shorten up to 11/10 best price, as short as 8/11, with Špilak ranging from 7/2 to 6/1, Quintana hasn't really moved and is 10/1 best, whereas Uran has popped out to 22/1 with Bet365, is 10/1 with BetVictor. He's tempting me to have a little top up at that price, 14" is not far off.
What it will mean though to this stage though is that Team Sky are going to have to work hard all day to keep things under control and keep G in yellow. There are plenty of riders still very close in the GC so all breaks will have to be controlled and I can't see them staying away to the finish. What we should see then maybe is Sky and Katusha controlling it on that final climb to the Vue Des Alpes, setting a very high pace that should burn off the majority of eye peloton.
There are two riders who are almost joint favourite for the stage - the old and the new generation. The old war-horse and Swiss stage lover Michael Albasini is 6/1 with Bet365 (as short as 7/2), whereas Julian Alaphillipe is the rising star with two excellent results in his last two races - he's also 6/1 with Bet365, he's 5/1 and 7/1 elsewhere.
Michael Albasini loves it here and won three stages last year on similar kinds of profiles. He can climb well on the shortish climbs like these and is very hard to beat in a reduced sprint. It's almost certain we won't see the likes of Nizzolo or Meersman at the finish so Albasini has a huge chance of getting revenge for today's defeat in the TTT. Alba was first across the line so would have been in the yellow jersey tomorrow, but who knows, all he needs is one second of a gap to Froome in the final sprint and he will take the jersey he thought he had won today. That's a huge incentive and I think he has a big chance tomorrow. He's in great form too, making podium in FW. If he can hang in over the last climb he should be involved in the sprint for the win.
Julian Alaphilippe has been great recently, but any follower of this blog will know I've been tipping him up for about a year now in various races, and even though he clearly is a brilliant rider, his lack of experience and tactical nous at the finish has cost him (and me!) on several occassions. He seems to be learning a lot though and has come as close as you can get to winning two Classics this week, only being beaten by the monster that is Alejandro Valverde.
The way he has been riding this week could see two things happen though - either a) he has no problem with these kinds of climbs and he is riding on a crest of a wave at the moment, or b) the efforts of the last two races take their toll on him and he struggles. Just look at Kwiatkowski who went very deep in AGR, he flopped badly in FW and LBL. I'm worried that he might be fatigued and also I think if it comes to a sprint, Albasini can beat him.
Geraint Thomas is in yellow, but it's likely that he's only borrowing it as he's unlikely to be let go for the overall win, unless Froome isn't 100%. This is his kind of stage too though, not too hard, and with the opportunity to attack near the finish on the run in to the line. He'll find it very hard to get away though with the yellow jersey on his back.
Rui Costa, Dan Martin, Vincenzo Nibali and Rigo Uran are all similarly matched in terms of price and their probability of winning this stage. Costa is in good form, Martin is recovering from the Ardennes disaster, Nibali is hot and cold, Uran went well in Catalunya, but that was a month ago. They could all attack before the end of the climb, on the descent or even in the run-in. Uran could win the sprint, depending on who's in it. I think though, they'll be close, but not win.
Ilnur Zakarin could go well, he did very well in the Pais Vasco, including taking an excellent 3rd place in the first stage over a very similar profile to this one, only being beaten by Matthews and Kwiatkowski. So too could Jacob Fuglsang, or possibly even Tony Martin with a late attack at 50/1, but one that I'd like to give another chance this week though is Simon Gerrans. I had a sneaking suspicion he was going to go well last Sunday, but unfortunately he was taken out by the big crash that took out Martin and Roche too.
He seemed really disappointed afterwards as he said he had been going good and was very comfortable up until then. It was a pity he was taken out as he could well have won that sprint at the end, he is well capable of beating Valverde as we know. He only lost a bit of skin and wasn't too badly banged up despite coming down twice in about 1km, if he can hang in there with Albasini, he could be a second card for OGE to play at the finish. He too could take the leader's jersey with a 1" time gap. At 40/1 he's worth a small bet I think.
Jan Bakelants has been going ok, just off the radar a little lately, he's the kind of guy though who could take a flyer on the run in to the finish here too. Nathan Haas or Ramunas Navardauskas could also get involved in the last 20kms here too, they could go well at prices around 80/1 and 66/1.
Albasini looks the most likely winner to me though, he should survive the purge on the final climb and should outsprint most of these guys. I wouldn't be surprised if Gerrans is still there with him and it could be one or the other who goes for it in the sprint. Jan Bakelants and Ilnur Zakarin could also go well at biggish prices too.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Michael Albasini at 6/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 40/1 with Paddy Power
0.4pts each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 25/1 with William Hill
0.25pts each-way on Jan Bakelants at 66/1 with Bet365
MAP
PROFILE
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Moutier to Porrentruy, 172.5km
Thursday, April 30th
A great win by Albasini puts us back on track after the disappointment of the TTT, it was absolute vintage from him, riding the wheels of the Tony Martin Express Train, then timing his jump right to go after Haas, who was unlucky to only finish 4th after a great ride by him and Navardauskas in the last kilometre.. I was almost cursing not backing him each-way after pointing the two of them out in my preview at big odds, but it's good to see the radar is working! Zakarin and Bakelants weren't far off either, finishing in 7th and 9th place.
Katusha looked to have a lot of riders at the front in the last kilometre, but they failed to trouble the podium. Albasini is now in the yellow jersey, the former holder of that, Geraint Thomas, suffered today after puncturing at a really bad time, he never got back in again and lost over 4 minutes.
Stage 3 is another typical Romandie stage, with two Cat 2 and two Cat 3 climbs, but also two rather large uncategorised climbs at the start of the stage. They start with a 31km circuit which descends at first in to the bottom of a rather long but uncategorised climb and they then descend back to the start in Moutier again. Then it's another uncategorised climb of the Col des Ranglers (8.4kms at 4.5%), before they descend all the way to the finish in Porrentruy.
They then set out on another circuit which takes them over the Cat 3 Côte de Bure first after 81kms (1.8kms at 7.4%) and then they pass the finish line before starting on two small loops, but they don't pass through the finish line again when in the loops. After 115kms it's the Col de la Croix (4.8kms at 6.3%) and that's followed 10kms later by the Col des Ranglers again, but this time they approach it from a steeper side to the first time (5kms at 7.2%).
Then they head back to Porrentruy for the last intermediate sprint before starting another circuit with the Côte de Bure again, and once over the top of that there's just 25kms to go. After a gradual descent for 21kms, the final 4kms are pretty much flat, with just a slight rise to the line for the last 500m or so of around 2%.
It's quite a similar profile to stage two, so expect the same sorts of riders to be involved, but this time I would expect more of the sprinting types to be involved at the finish as the course isn't as tough as stage 2. It could also be a day for a break to make it though, as there could be some big time gaps to some after stage 2, and depending on who's in the break, they might be given enough rope by Sky to fight it out.
The 'sprinters' of the race include the likes of Luca Mezgec, Giaccomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman, Sergei Chernetckii, Albasini and Alaphilippe. All of these guys can cope well with the terrain and have reasonably decent sprints, in this company.
Michael Albasini showed today though that he is in superb shape, and not only is he one of the smartest and most wily finishers in the race, he's also one of the fastest. He was always superbly positioned and even when the surge came on the left by Cannondale he switched from E-QS to their wheel in a flash. He then had the speed as well to finish it off. I think he is the man to beat again tomorrow.
Luca Mezgec won a stage in the Tour du Haut Var back in February, on a course quite similar to this one. It even had a short, but tough Cat1 climb just 15kms from the finish, where he beat Philippe Gilbert in the sprint. He hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders since then, but I believe he has been ill and is only just recovering. He finished 9 minutes down today, but he may have been just keeping his powder dry for tomorrow.
Giaccomo Nizzolo and Sergei Chernetckii finished almost side by side today, almost 7 minutes down, but again, they weren't expected to be involved in the finish today and probably rolled in.. Nizzolo should do better on Wednesday's stage though, as long as he can stay in touch over the two Cat 2 climbs, he should be contesting the sprint finish. Two top 5 placings in Paris-Nice, including a great 3rd place when I had tipped him at 66/1, he followed it up with a win in the the GP Nobili a month ago.
He doesn't have the best team with him though for a lead-out, but Vandewalle, Busche, Van Poppel and Coledan should be able to hook him on to the right sprint train. Bet365 are first out with their prices and opened with Nizzolo and Mezgec at 4/1, which were really poor prices. They pushed them out to 6/1 and then went 7/1 Nizzolo and I decided to have a little bit of that each-way. Albasini was installed as 5/2 favourite, that was quickly cut to 9/4.
Gianni Meersman is the 6/1 second favourite but I can't be having him, he should have been involved in the finish today I think, instead he finished over 4 minutes down. Martin and Uran did a great train for Alaphilippe today, but his inexperience cost him again as he got a little lost when the final surges came around him, he lost a few places which may have cost him the win as he finished very fast. I think it could be a messy sprint tomorrow and Alaphilippe might struggle again.
Haas, Navardauskas and Pantano were all up there in the sprint today but with a flatter run in to the line tomorrow and the likelihood of a lot more of the sprinting types being involved, I don't think they'll be in the first 3 this time.
Elia Viviani opened at 11/1 and has been backed in to 7/1. On his day he should be one of the fastest in this field, but I worry about whether he will be there at the finish or not. He was way down today, over 15 mins in fact, and with Froome challenging for the overall, I'm not sure Sky will want to risk wasting energy in trying to look after him and lead him out. He may well be left to his own devices, Friday's stage is one he might have a better shot at.
I think though that it will be a similar situation to today, with the peloton reeling in the break of the day in time to fight out a sprint finish. E-QS will probably lead it out again in the last 4kms with Tony Martin, Katusha will probably have plenty up there again, but OGE should have more men around Albasini than he had today, not that he needed them really, did he. Albasini landed three stage wins last year, I wouldn't put it past him to do the same again this year, and the 9/4 with Bet365 is worth a nibble for now. Nizzolo could run him close and is capable of a top 3 maybe.
A joker though at a huge price could be Sergei Chernetckii - 100/1 on a guy who won a stage in Pais Vasco, beating form-men Alaphilippe and Paterski, 3rd place in the final sprint behind Valverde and Coquard, Katusha should get behind him tomorrow and give him a chance, Zakarin let them down today.
Recommendations:
2.5pts win on Michael Albasini at 9/4 with Bet365
0.75pts each-way on Giacomo Nizzolo at 7/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Sergei Chernetckii at 100/1 with BetVictor
MAP
PROFILE
Stage 4
Stage 4- La Neuveville to Fribourg, 169.8kms
Friday 1st May
The 4th stage starts with a nice easy opening 60kms on flat roads, but for the remaining 100kms or so it's up and down all the way to the finish in Friborg. The profile might not look so hard, but they will climb nearly 1800m in total by they finish. It isn't as hard as the previous two stages though by a long way and we could finally get a chance for the sprinters to shine.
Heading south-west to start with, they go around the edge of the Lac de Neuchatel, but as they pass Vuchernes with about 55kms gone the road starts to rise. A couple of little bumps take them up to the 90km mark where they are now after turning and are heading back north-east. First they tackle the Cat 2 climb of Les Poccots (3.9kms at 6.8%) which they crest with just under 73kms to go. After a gradual descent for around 35kms they cross the Cat2 climb at Sorens (4.4kms at 4.1%) which tops out with less than 34kms left to go. Then one more little climb of the Treyvaux with 12kms left and then a short descent leads to a flat run to the finish.
In four finishes in the past in Friborg they're have been two sprint finishes (one won by Cavendish) and two breakaway wins, most recently by Albasini from a three man break that included Thomas Voeckler and one of my picks for the day, Jan Bakelants. It could well end in a bunch sprint again, none of the climbs are very hard and the last climb only averages 3.7% so it shouldn't trouble most of these guys. But also, as we have seen, there's a good chance of a break making it too, these lumpy roads can be hard to control and with the really tough Queen stage the next day we could see the GC men's teams holding back a little.
So another good result with Albasini today, it was another brilliant finish by him, doing almost exactly as I thought he would, with him having Gerrans to look after him in the last kilometre this time too. Chernetckii wasn't far off at all for a 100/1 shot, finishing in 10th place. Nizzolo was disappointing though, he got dropped on the Cat 2 climbs and finished well down.
It surprised me a little then to see Nizzolo priced up as co-favourite with Albasini for tomorrow, what evidence do we have that he has good legs?! Ok, tomorrow's stage is a lot easier and the GC men who decided to make the race lively today will probably be taking it easier tomorrow with the Queen Stage on Saturday, but there are still a Cat 2 and a Cat 3 climb to get over in the last 30kms. Having seen that weakness again today, OGE and Etixx-QS are sure to drill it on the Cat 2 climb and again on the Cat 3 to try to shed him.
Looking at Albasini's sprint today you'd have to think he'll be very hard to beat again tomorrow. With Gerrans to lead him out he has one of the best lead-out men in the race now after Tony Martin and they have been using the E-QS train very well to keep them at the front of the pack. The flatter sprint may not suit him as much, but his and the team's confidence must be sky high at the moment, and with the easier stage, there is more chance that he will have even more team-mates at the finish.
Luca Mezgec managed to stay in with the leaders today and for a while I was worried he might trouble Albasini in the sprint. He didn't even trouble the podium in the end, finishing in 9th place. I was worried about his fitness after coming back from a long lay-off and it looks like he probably ran out of gas in the end. Tomorrow's flatter stage might see him get closer, but I'm not risking it on him.
Elia Viviani was well off the pace again today, as I suspected, Sky are not bothered about what happens to him, it's all about the Froome-dog. He is 12/1 to win tomorrow, is it worth taking a punt on him to come good and get to the finish with the leaders? I think Viviani has trouble with speed bumps these days, let alone Cat 2 climbs, so no, I don't think I can trust him after two poor days.
Julian Alaphilippe has been close, very close to winning with a fast finishing 3rd and a 2nd place today. He has been out-foxed and outsprinted by Alba on both occassions, showing his inexperience that I warned about a few times now. In the sprint today Alba was pulling away from Ala all the way to the line and I think he may have to settle for 2nd or 3rd again. His super powerful leadout of Martin and Uran should be able to lead him in to a position to challenge for podium spot though so the 12/1 on him does appeal on an each-way basis.
Other than that, Haas and Navardauskas have been very involved in the sprint finishes, both finishing in the top 10 again for the second day running. I don't think either of them has the speed to win a flat sprint though so it could be 5th to 10th again for them. Damiano Caruso did very well today, but that uphill finish suited him better than a flat sprint. Maxime Belkov, Chernetckii, Zakarin, take your pick of the Katusha men who could be involved, but I don't think any of them could win.
I think Albasini will win again, and he is worth backing again, we're up on the back of his wins so far, no harm in letting it run one more time. Alaphilippe can podium again at a reasonable 12/1. Jan Bakelants has gone well here in the past and is going well this week too, he could be one to take a punt on in case of a late break, he's big enough at 50/1.
I've also just added 0.3pts each-way on Rui Costa as the weather is going to be pretty wet and cold for today's stage, that suits him more than most and he has been up in the sprints on the last two stages in 4th and 5th. At 66/1 he's worth a bet.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Albasini at 7/2 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Alaphilippe at 12/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way at 50/1 on Jan Bakelants with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Rui Costa at 66/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Van Asbroeck to beat Viviani - 1pt at 2/1 with Bet365
Rui Costa to beat Caruso - 1pt at 5/4 with Bet365
MAP
PROFILE
Stage 5
Stage 5 Fribourg to Champex-Lac, 162.7kms
Saturday May 2nd
A Saturday afternoon treat with a Queen stage setting for Froome, Uran, Quintana, Nibali and Co. to battle it out for overall victory. It's the first time the race has finished on this climb to Champex-Lac and is one of the toughest stages of any TDR.
It starts with a relatively easy opening 40kms, but then starts to rise as they head towards the first climb of the day, the Col des Mosses. The official stats of the climb are 13.4kms at 4% but they will have been climbing the lower slopes out of the valley for some 10kms before that. Then they descend for 20kms back down to the valley to Bex where they again take a detour up in to the hills to climb another, steeper Cat 1 climb, Les Giettes (9.4kms at 7.6%).
After a fast, twisty 10km descent they then have a bit of respite with 25kms or so of flat roads before the penultimate climb of the day. This is a nasty little climb which should see the final selection made for the last climb of the day. It's only 5kms, but averages nearly 10%, making it one of the toughest climbs of the week. From the top there's only about 16kms left to go, 5km of which are a descent to the foot of the final climb of the day to the finish at Champex-Lac. I wouldn't be surprised if there were less than 30, possibly even less than 20 still left in the favourites group as they start the final climb.
For the first ime in a number of years there is a summit finish in the TDR and what a tough climb lies in store at the end of a hard day here. It's 14.2kms long at an average of 7%, hitting max gradients of 13% along the way. Most of the climb is around 7-8% average but it does ease back a little to 4.6% in the last kilometre and 2.4% for the last 500m.
This is the day that should decide the race and should also tell us a lot about the form of the favourites for the Giro and the TDF. Which Chris Froome will we see? The one that was in trouble in Catalunya or the one who destroyed Contador on the second day in the mountains in Andalucia? He has been looking comfortable enough so far to me, I'm sure we'll know a little more about his form after Thursday's stage but that stage is very different to what is required here.
I think Sky will drill it on the Forclaz and any break that was away should probably be doomed before the start of the final climb. Thomas is out of the running now following his badly-timed puncture on stage 2, and although they've lost Kennaugh, with Roche, Rowe and Pate they should be able to stretch things out and get rid of most. But it could mean that he will lose possibly all bar Roche by the time things get serious and he could find himself on his own with more than 5kms left to go. It will be interesting to see then when Froome takes it up, or does he just ride on wheels and keeps his form cards close to his chest while doing enough to take the jersey which he should defend in the TT.
He probably doesn't need to go for a big time gap as he should do well in the final TT too, so we may not see him go on the attack until quite late in the stage. A small attack, not much energy exerted and a 10-20" lead going in to the TT should seal victory for him. Whether he is capable of that is the question though.. He may also just choose to follow wheels, not revealing much, but if he finishes in the same time as Quintana, Nibali, Špilak and co. he will probably be confident of taking them in the TT. He is the joint 5/2 favourite with Nairo, looks like the bookies can't split them either.. Is 5/2 worth backing? I'm not sure.. I might watch and wait in-play on him.
Nairo Quintana has been comfortable enough so far also in the little bit of climbing action we've seen on stage 2, being one of the first over the final climb and he was also attacking on stage 3 on the flat of all places, maybe just testing his legs.. We didn't see anything of him in the Ardennes Classics, but this final climb is much more his cup of tea though. He'd probably have preferred it to be a few percentage points higher, closer to 10% average, but he should still be one of the key players on this finish.
Again, at 5/2, is he worth backing? With the conditions set to possibly be wet and cold up towards the top of the climb, and knowing how well he rides in those conditions (stage win in the snow in Tirreno-Adriatico..) then I'd rather be on him than Froome at those prices. I'm still not sure of his condition though, but he simply has to attack if he wants to even reach the podium in this race - he has a lot of time to make up - 40" on Froome and Yates and 35" on Spilak for example. He is capable of it on a really good day, but I think he may win the stage but not with enough of a gap. At least he'll get something out of the race and a little confidence boost.
Vincenzo Nibali is still an unknown quantity too, he has also looked comfortable on that final climb on stage 2, he was quite prominent at the front of the peloton, and was active on stage 3 also attacking and stretching things. You would have expected the likes of Froome, Quintana and Nibali to be comfortable on a climb like that though, especially when you see how many guys like Albasini and Haas etc got over it with them.
This gradient should suit him well and Astana could be another team that will be looking to stretch it out once Sky have burnt all their matches. Scarponi could go on the attack to make the others chase, but Fuglsang, Grivko and Taaramae could be still there to help out. Westra has been sick I believe so not sure he'll be of much help. He's around 16/1 but I think he'll be outside the top 3, maybe 6th or 7th.
Rigo Uran could be one to just sit in and let Astana, Sky and Movistar fight it out at the front and then sprint away from them all at the finish. He doesn't have the climbing support of the other teams, so he could well find himself alone with 10kms to go, but that means he will just hide away and let the others punch away at each other. I think he could go well here and if he can hang on to the leaders to the last kilometre he has the kick to win the stage. He is a bigger price than I thought he'd be at 22/1 with Bet365, I thought he might be around 14/1 or so (he's 18/1 with PP).
Simon Spilak is quite short for tomorrow's stage for me, he's only 7/1. He might go well, he could stay with the likes of Froome like he has done in the past, but at that price I have no interest in backing him, I just have a funny feeling he might be left behind tomorrow. Simon Yates is level on time with Chris Froome and to me he is a lively outsider for the podium, and a huge price for it at 50/1. He could well hang in there with the leaders and he has a 5" head start on his nearest rival Spilak, and 14" to Uran. I am not sure he can win tomorrow, but I thought he was worth a small bet each-way with Paddy Power or so I thought until I saw they were only offering each-way betting on the first 2, a pretty pointless each-way market. Ladbrokes are only offering win-only and Bet365 have no overall market at all!
Rafal Majka has been showing some signs of form coming back, he had a poor start to the season with rumours that he had been overtrained. He has recovered and got his legs back and has been right to the front of every stage so far this week. This is a huge test though of how well he has recovered though, and I think he could pop in the last 5kms. He's only 18/1 with 365, but 40/1 with PP and that's more like it..
Thibaut Pinot could be anything tomorrow - he could be right there at the end, but I don't think he is good enough to beat the likes of Froome or Quintana, but also he might well be left behind. When favourite for the Criterium International he couldn't stay with JC Peraud and that doesn't bode well for taking on Froome and Contador. Rui Costa has finished on the podium here three years running and to do that he must be able to go well on these Swiss climbs. This is a tough summit finish, but he should be capable of staying with the leaders if on a good day. If they manage to mark each other out of it and a small group of 6 or 8 comes to the finish together he could win the sprint. At 25/1 he's one I want to have on-side.
Pierre Rolland, Jacob Fuglsang, Michelle Scarponi, Romain Bardet and Matthias Frank on home soil, these could all go well too, but I think this will come down to a very reduced peloton tackling the final climb after the Forclaz has broken things to pieces. We may even get the likes of Rolland and Scarponi attacking on it to try to get a head start on the final climb. It will be every man for himself inside the final kilometres and with no clear evidence of one rider being on a very different level to anyone else I think we will see Quintana try his best to attack away from them. It may succeed, Froome just needs to keep the gap manageable for the TT, but if he is reeled in we could see the group of 6-10 coming to the finish together, and if so, Uran and Costa could fight out the sprint.
After Jan Bakelants landed the 50/1 each-way money and with 2 out of 2 in the matchbets, I'm now going for four days in a row picking winners tomorrow, it could have been 5 out of 5 had OGE managed to not lose my 0.63 seconds! It should be a hell of a day tomorrow with this and the Tour of Yorkshire, going to be busy!
Recommendations:
2pts win on Nairo Quintana at 5/2 with Paddy Power
0.5pts each-way on Rigoberto Uran at 22/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Rui Costa at 25/1 with PP
Matchbets
I might add some tomorrow, not a lot jump out at me at the moment.
MAP
PROFILE
Stage 6
Stage 6 - Lausanne, 17.3km
Sunday May 3rd
So a disappointing outcome to today's stage, Thibaut Pinot took a fantastic, opportunistic stage win, but the lack of any real effort by Quintana or Froome to try to go after him was disappointing and surprising. It just looked like they were more interested in just riding tempo and watching each other. At least Froome was doing the driving at the front, Quintana clearly just had about enough legs to hang in there, I was waiting for a last 2km attack from him and nothing came. Uran I was disappointed with too, he threw in the towel early, Nibali I wasn't surprised with, I didn't think he'd be up there. Zakarin rode great too to take over the leader's jersey, but surely he's only keeping it warm for Froome, who will surely seal it in the TT tomorrow.
So on to the final stage then and it's a reasonably tricky affair with lots of twists and turns around the streets of Lausanne, which includes a little hilly section in the middle of the race. The first 8kms or so are almost completely flat as they head out west along the lakeshore, before doubling back on themselves and head towards the little climb. It sort of steps up in three sections - 1.4kms at 4.5%, a little descent and then a steeper 10.8% average for 750m, then a final section of 450m at 6.2%. Once they descend off the top there's only 2.2kms to go to the finish.
Tony Martin is the very short 8/13 favourite with PP, is even shorter at 8/15 with Bet365, but it's easy to see why. He has been flying this week, leading out Alaphilippe, going on the attack with Meersman, hanging in with the climbers until quite late on the climb today. And he is easily the best time triallist in the race by a long way.He should love this course too, a fast, flat opening section, a little climb that isn't too difficult (and he has been climbing really well) and a fast finish for his 55 or 56 tooth chain ring.
But 8/13? He let me down in Pais Vasco when I thought he would beat Kwiatkowski in the match bet, he has disappointed at short odds on a number of occassions in the past. Can Froome beat him? Well, he seemed to be struggling at times today, but we've seen that before from Froome, like in the Vuelta last year, and he just rides to a tempo and got himself from the back to the front pretty quickly. He had the power to keep them all stretched out and drop the likes of Uran and Nibali, but there was no 'washing machine spin cycle' acceleration from him, it was tempo to the numbers.
He should like this course too, the climb will play in to his hands more than Martin, but he won't like all the twists and turns, especially as there are showers forecast for tomorrow. Very little wind (3mph) but it looks like it could be raining all day. He just needs to pace himself well, do a reasonably good time without too many risks, and for that reason, I don't want to back him at just 9/2.
Rohan Dennis, Rigo Uran and Simon Špilak are all around the 16/1 mark. Rohan Dennis will be smarting after losing his hour record to Alex Dowsett today so I think he'll be fired up to go out and put in a big performance tomorrow. Each-way betting options are limited as usual with TTs, PP are only offereing each-way on the first two, Bet365 are offering a win only and a 'Top 3'. I think Dennis is capable of a top 3 performance tomorrow, he's one of the best TT'ers in the race - in Paris-Nice he beat Martin in the Prologue and finished at the same time as winner kwiatkowski. He also did pretty well in the very hard hill TT in Pais Vasco, finishing 18th. I'd rather be on him to come in the top 3 at 10/11 than back Martin at 8/13.
Rigo Uran disappointed today, he just looks like he hasn't the power at the moment, so I'm not going to risk it on him tomorrow. Špilak would have preferred a hillier TT I think, I don't know if he'll make the top 3 tomorrow, the 3/1 the 3/1 on him to finish in the top 3 doesn't appeal, nor does the 18/1 to win.
There's not a lot of the others really appeal to me, except for maybe Stefan Kung and Jonathan Castroviejo at 66/1 and 80/1. Kung won a brilliant stage the other day, time trialling his way to the finish from a long way out, holding off my man Bakelants. With those kind of legs, and given how good a time triallist he is, it looks a very tempting price. U23 European TT champion (and Road Race champion), runner-up to Cancellara in the Swiss TT championship and 3rd in the Worlds U23 TT behind Ryan Mullen and Campbell Flakemore, he could really smash it tomorrow and could be in the hot seat for a while possibly!
Jonathan Castroviejo could go well too, 4th in the TT in Tirreno, 6th in the TT in the Algarve, he seems to have got his TT mojo back this year and has been riding well this week too.
Martin will probably win, the only sort of bet I'm thinking of having on him is to double him up with his team-mate Mark Cavendish in Turkey, the double pays 2.42/1.
Recommendations:
2pts win on the Cavendish/Martin cross-race double at 2.42/1 with PP
0.3pts each-way on Stefan Kung at 66/1 with PP (2 places only)
0.5pts on Jonathan Castroviejo to finish in the top 3 at 8/1
Matchbets:
A really poor effort from the bookies so far for Match Bets - none offered from PP and Bet365 are not allowing any accumulators, win only. Not a lot appeal to me except for Castroviejo to beat Clement - 2pts on that at 8/11.
MAP
PROFILE
Overall Contenders and Favourites
On paper it looks like it will be a fascinating battle - Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Rigo Uran, Vincenzo Nibali, Simon Spilak and Thibaut Pinot will battle it out over a Team Time Trial, some lumpy transition stages, a hard summit finish on the Queen stage and an individual Time Trial to finish it off. It's like a mini Tour de France and is the reason that the riders mentioned above are here. The other main protagonists for the TDF that have skipped the race, such as Contador, Valverde and Richie Porte, are taking on the Giro in less than two weeks, they are preparing for that. On paper it looks a lot different to what we might get in reality though!
Chris Froome came in to this race on the back of a disaster of a spring campaign that had seen him miss several big races through illness and injury. It almost feels like Deja-Vu then with old Froomie, such is the way the last few months have turned out for him. Great in the Vuelta a Andalucia to win the overall, way off the pace in Catalunya where he finished in 71st place. In between he missed Tireno-Adriatico due to another chest infection, last year he missed it due to back problems. It was clear he hadn't recovered fully from the chest infection in Catalunya, especially on the tough stage 4 to La Molina when he lost almost 28 minutes.
He kept going though to the finish in Barcelona and seemed to be getting stronger. He returned to racing again after nearly a month of mountain training with ambitions to try to test himself on the Mur de Huy in Fleche-Wallone last Wednesday, as practice for the TDF stage in July. Instead, he was involved in two more crashes, but thankfully neither were very serious and he was able to finish, albeit down in 123rd place.
Winner of this race for the last two years, the wins were gained by riding away from all bar Simon Špilak, and holding his lead comfortably in the time trial. He should benefit from a strong Team Sky squad for the TTT and could well already have a significant time gap on some of his rivals after the first stage. The final TT should normally suit him too, with lots of flat roads to put his power down on and even a little hilly part for him to take some time out of the pure TT'ers like Tony Martin. The question is though what sort of condition is he really in? After a month away from racing, and missing the key warm-up race in T-A, he could be lacking in race sharpness. He did though do a hard two-week training block in Tenerife with Richie Porte and Leopold Konig and Gab Rasch says that he is in good shape, "a level up from where he was.."
Vincenzo Nibali has been lively in recent weeks in the Ardennes' Classics, animating AGR, FW and LBL along the way. He was never able to make a move count and it really looks like he was just there for the training and the longer-term goal of the TDF. Whether he decides to up his effort now in this mini TDF is the question though. He may lose time to start with in the TTT though, Astana don't have the strongest team here with him. Based on how he got dropped after the Côte de Saint Nicholas when Bardet accelerated, you'd have to worry about his chances of staying with the best climbers on the summit finish of the Queen stage. He put in a dig, went nowhere really and then just went straight out the back door.
Nairo Quintana is also a difficult one to work out where he is at, he was nowhere to be seen in the latter stages of the Classics he entered, and in particular, he was conspicuous by his absence in FW and LBL. Shouldn't he have been challenging the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez on the Mur to test himself ahead of June? Shouldn't he have been in the front group willing to help out his team leader Valverde, whom he's probably going to have to call upon over the rest of the year? Instead he finished LBL nearly 10 minutes down on his team-mate, which was a pretty pathetic showing to be fair. At 5/1 he doesn't offer much value and doesn't appeal to me at all.
Simon Špilak seems to love this race, whether it's because of it's combination of shortish time trials, not-so-brutally-difficult climbing stages, or his much-documented apparent preference for cold and wet conditions or a combination of all of the above. 2nd twice behind Froome, winner in the middle of a dopers podium in 2010, when Valverde was stripped of the title, Menchov finished 3rd, he has the track record to justify having him towards the top of the betting again. Add in the fact that he's in really good form this year and he has to be a serious contender for podium again.
A great performance in Paris-Nice saw him take two successive 2nd places on the penultimate stage to Nice and the final TT up the Col d'Eze to take 3rd place overall. He also did reasonably well in the Pais Vasco, finishing 12th overall in the GC. He would have preferred it if the Queen stage wasn't so hard and if the final TT was harder! Remember, he lost out on a top 6, possibly a top 3 position in the Basque Country because of a mechanical straight after he started the TT, it took ages for him to get a bike change. I think he will be there or thereabouts in the top 6 again, but 4/1 is a little tight to be betting each-way, I don't think he will win it.
Rui Costa goes well on Swiss roads, he has finished 3rd here three years in succession now and has also gone very well in the Tour de Suisse, winning it in 2014. He has been in really good form of late and his 4th place finish in LBL landed the 25/1 each-way bets for us. The problem for Costa though is that he could be 20" down before the 2nd stage even starts as the Lampre-Merida team are not the best at TTTs. Also, he wouldn't be the best at the individual TT either, nor at a very hard and steep summit finish to the Queen stage. He should be close, and he may hang in with the leaders, he was looking very comfortable on the climbs in LBL, but a climb like that isn't exactly his cup of tea. Instead, he may have to go stage hunting on stages 2,3 or 4. He could go close to a podium spot, but at 10/1 it's not really worth it.
Rigoberto Uran - he comes here with some really solid form behind him for a race like this. Winner of the ITT Columbian Championships earlier in the year, we all know he can TT a bit when he wants to. 7th in Strade Bianche, when he came from a mile back at the finish, 3rd in Tirreno to land the 8/1 each-way bets, and 5th in Catalunya. He has since gone back to Columbia for a 2-week training spin and he should be coming to Romandie fully charged for a tilt at the podium here. He has one of the best squads for a TTT here with the Panzerwagen Tony Martin leading the likes of Meersman, Serry, Golas, Alaphilippe and Bouet, he may well take a small lead over Froome and Co. after the first stage.
He is capable of a top 5 placing in the final TT, so it could come down to him just having to mark and follow the likes of Froome and Quintana on the Queen Stage, something he is capable of, especially if he comes back with good climbing legs after his stint in Columbia. With doubts about Froome, Nibali and Quintana, he looks a solid podium bet at worst at 10/1.
After that we start getting in to the types of guys who are going well lately and could pull off a bit of a surprise. Jacob Fuglsang is only 20/1, but he has been going well of late, looked very strong in LBL on Sunday. He could lose time in the TTT, but he should do ok in the final TT. It's whether he can stay with the best climbers on the Queen stage is the question, and I think no.
Geraint Thomas is only 25/1 also, but he could be an interesting one if anything happens to Froome. He should go well in the TTT, Should go well in the final TT and could stay close to the best on the Queen stage. But you are taking a punt that something will happen to Froome and that G can stay with the mountain goats on a pretty steep climb.
Mathias Frank is the local hope and he has gone well on Swiss roads in the past, finishing 4th here last year and 2nd in the Tour de Suisse. I think they will struggle in the TTT and he will struggle on the final TT and he is not powerful enough to get away and stay away on this sort of course though. I'll pass on him, even at 40/1.
JC Peraud won in the Criterium International not so long ago, but it was against a much weaker field than this and when Thibaut Pinot disappointed and failed to live up to favouritism. He is 50/1 here and although he may struggle a little in the TTT, he could well be one of those fighting out the finish on the Queen stage. He isn't the worst TTer in the world either, he's capable of a top 10 on that final TT, but I think he will be scrapping for 4th to 10th rather than 1st to 3rd.
Tinkoff-Saxo are expecting big things of Rafal Majka and are hopeful of a big ride from him, but I can't see him troubling the podium based on what we've seen so far from him and based on his and his team's likely TT performances. Romain Bardet was excellent in LBL, almost landing the bets for us, finishing in 6th place. He clearly is in good shape, but he says he is coming here with a stage win in mind only. Now if that is the Queen stage, and he puts a lot fo daylight between him and the rest, then he might have a chance of the podium. But if he does win though, I think it will be by a small margin, not enough to make up what he will lose in the TTs.
Jurgen Van den Broeck at 80/1 and Riccardo Zoidl on home soil at 150/1 are two outsiders at big prices that might be worth a shot.
To summarise though, it is hard to put a lot of faith behind any of the favourites, and in fact, if Richie Porte were here for example, I'd be all over him. Froome should be fit and ready to go, has a great TTT squad and should be top 3 in the ITT at the end. It's whether he turns up with his Catalunya legs or his Andalucia legs (plus two hard weeks training in Tenerife with Richie Porte) for the Queen stage will determine whether he wins this race or not. For that reason, and the fact he crashed twice last night, he looks terrible value at 5/4.
Nibali could struggle in the TTT, the Queen stage and the TT, so I'm leaving him. Simon Špilak should go well again, but might find the Queen stage a little hard and the TT a little too easy. He has a good shot at the podium, but 4/1 is rubbsih, anything could happen as we saw with his bike in Pais Vasco. Who knows what will happen with Quintana - he could turn up like the guy who rode away from Contador and Uran in Tirreno Adritico, or he could turn up like the guy who finished 10 minutes down in LBL.. Who knows.. I'm not prepared to risk it anyway.
Instead, it all points to Rigoberto Uran as the play at 10/1 (the 12/1 he was when I started writing this around 10pm was gone by the time I tried to place my bet!). He should get off to a flyer, has a very strong team with him for out on the rolling stages and the likes of Tony Martin to drag him for as long as possible on the final climb. I don't really see a lot else that interests me for now, I might update this in-play when new odds come out as we go along.
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Recommendations:
1.5pts each-way on Rigo Uran at 10/1 with Bet365
