Details

Published on Saturday, 30 May 2015 21:58

Giro d'Italia St 21

Torino to Milano

Sunday 31st May, 178kms 

The final stage will be a long celebration stage for Alberto Contador as they roll across billiard-table like flatlands for 175 boring kilometres until the final sprint in Milan. It's one day that I won't be complaining about the irritating habit of Eurosport not going to the live coverage as soon as they can, I think I'll tune in proper for the last hour at most. 

This is a surprisingly long stage for a final stage of a Grand Tour, especially when it's a flat sprinters stage. They could have lopped 50kms off this stage and it would have been no worse in terms of spectacle and difficulty. 

A great stage today and a good day profit-wise - Aru played to the script perfectly, winning on his climb in Sestriere, but in the process Astana rather bizarrely threw away the Mountains jersey and a possible chance of overall victory. Aru winning at 8/1, Uran e/w at 22/1 and some of the match bets coming in gave a nice 14.5pt profit, plus I laid Landa at 4/6 in play to add another 3pts. 

It was interesting to see Contador crack on the Finestre, but what a brilliant climb that was, a fantastic conclusion to the Giro. Hesjedal was immense once again, but once again was left frustrated by a rampant Aru. Uran looked the strongest for a long time and got an easy ride, trading to odds on for a while in-play. But even though he was the only one able to go with Aru when he attacked, he too cracked a little and was passed by Hesjedal in the run-in. Landa lost 2nd place but has secured 3rd, and I only just remembered tonight I recommended backing him each-way in my 'Outsiders' preview at 150/1! 

The Route

I'll spare you any sort of worthless route description, it's flat and straight for 140kms until they reach Milan and enter the final 5.4kms circuit, which they do 7 times. It's a tight and twisting criterium circuit but on very wide roads. There are four 90° turns inside the last 2300m, the final right-hander comes around 900m from the line. From there it's a dead straight charge to the line on the Corsa Sempione, an 8.5m wide, flat road.

Contenders and Favourites

There is probably a 99% chance that this will end in a sprint, but we could get the likes of Adam Hansen, Vasily Kiryienka, Patrick Gretsche, Luke Durbridge, Tobias Ludvigsson and Tanel Kangert try their luck in getting away and using their power on the final circuit. It probably won't stick though and we are likely to see a mass sprint up the Corso Sempione. The bookies are having trouble splitting Nizzolo and Modolo, with PP going 2/1 for each of them, although Ladbrokes are much more in the Modolo camp, making him 7/4 with Nizz at 11/4. Of course, it's not just the stage win they are battling for tomorrow, but also the Red Points Jersey, it's come down to the very last stage and hangs in the balance. I'm hoping Nizzolo can hang in there and land the 11/2 bet for us.

In recent sprints, it's the unmissable jerseys of Lampre-Merida who have hit the front at just the right time in the last kilometres to propel Modol in to race winning positions. Richeze and Ferrari are excellent at their jobs and take no prisoners when going for the front in the closing stages. Modolo has also done his job perfectly, delivering two stage wins and Lampré can feel very pleased with their Giro, despite their best placed man, Premeslaw Niemiec being down in 40th place, over 2 hours back. 

They have eight of their nine men stil in the race and it's likely we will see Niemiec, Polanc and Ulissi pulling out on the road to keep the break under control and Richeze and Ferrari taking over in the last lap. Modolo has proved too strong for everyone he meets again on this stage and is a worthy favourite. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo - will he finally get his stage win? Will he finally break his record of fifteen top 5 finishes and still no wins at the Giro?! Second in the final sprint in Napoli last year to Mezgec, he just seems to just find one too good for him too many times. What can he do to beat Modolo tomorrow? Well I've said it already a few days ago - he actually needs a leadout train that knows what the hell it's doing, because they have been pretty poor in general. Let Lampré do the pushing earlier in the stage, sit in a bit more and try to keep more fresh men for the finish. The final criterium circuit can be tricky, so they will need to be at the front though to keep him out of trouble. 

Elia Viviani could finally get involved in a sprint too, the whole Sky team should work for him tomorrow now the race is over, and he would be one of the fastest out and out sprinters of this lot. Since his fine win at the start of the race he just has not got close enough to winning the sprints since. He has been let to his own devices and has gone missing too often. Tomorrow though with it being the final stage and with big wide open roads he should have Konig, Siutsou, Kiryienka, Puccio and Eisel all helping get him in the right position at the finish and he should be close to the podium. 

I'm going to give Eduard Grosu another go, he has got over his fever and is really fired up for this. He also won a a criterium in Milan last year so could go close tomorrow at a nice price. Yes, he's a long shot again and not one to have the mortgage on, but at 50/1 he's definitely worth a small stake. 

Luca Mezgec won the final stage of the Giro last year in Napoli, beating Nizzolo, Farrar and Bouhanni and he has been getting closer lately, taking 3rd on the last sprint stage to Lugano. He could be top 6 again tommorow, but maybe 4th to 6th rather than 1st to 3rd. 

Haussler came very, very close for me in Lugano, finishing 4th at a massive 100/1 - there is no 100/1 available this time, he's best price 28/1. He was very disappointed after with his 4th place, it would have meant a lot to him and the IAM squad to win a stage in Switzerland. When asked by that idiot French interviewer on Eurosport after the stage whether he was happy with 4th he said 'No, why should I be, 4th is no good. Do you remember who finished 4th yesterday?" "uh, uh, uh, no...." "Exactly - nobody cares about who finished 4th". He might find it hard tomorrow though against the speedier types, with Modolo looking the most likely winner and Viviani and Nizzolo fighting for the stage and the Red Jersey he could find it hard. 

Alexander Porsov and Moreno Hofland are probably top ten material too but I don't think they can break the top 3. Appalonio sprinted well in Lugano to take 5th, the Androni man might find this a little too fast for him. This sprint will be all about positioning and final speed though. The finishing straight is long and wide so it will be a real power sprint and with a headwind against them on the finishing straight it can pay to wait and come with a late surge. This is where it could fall in to the hands of Nizzolo to finally get his win..

Lampré will probably lead in to the the final bend 900m from the finish, but how long up the finishing straight will they be able to hold off the guys sitting in behind? I think Nizz is faster on a long, wide, straight road and he can sit in behind the last man and Modolo and come around them in the last 100m. I am nervous about backing him again as he is no longer an each-way price to get your stake back if he finishes 2nd or 3rd, he's best price 5/2 now. I think he could finally do it though and I'm willing to give him one last chance to go out with a bang in this Giro for him, and for us! Hopefully Grosu can get in the mix at a big price, that could be interesting to see his Nippo-Vini Fantini orange kit flashing amongst the leaders coming in to the last kilometre! But it looks to me like it could be Nizzolo, Mezgec, Modolo, Viviani and hopefully Grosu fighting it out at the finish.

I hope you've enjoyed the previews and managed to back some winners along the way, let's hopefully have one more winner tomorrow!

Recommendations:

2pts win on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 5/2 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Eduard Grosu at 50/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Mezgec to beat Viviani - 1.5pts at evens with PP

Grosu to beat Appalonio - 1pt at 6/5 with PP

Appalonio to beat Hofland - 2.4pts at 4/6