- Details
- Published on Wednesday, 27 May 2015 22:38
Giro d'Italia St 18
Melide to Verbania
Thursday 28th May, 170kms
A trip around the lakes today for the peloton, and for the first 124kms it is as flat as the previous day's stage, as they skirt around Lake Lugano and then Lago di Varese and Lago di Comabbio and finally the Lake Maggiore. As they reach Verbania with 110kms gone they turn away from the finish town and once again go along the shores of Lake Maggiore.
And then, suddenly, bang - they hit a Cat 1 climb up to the Monte Ologno. It's going to be a strange stage to guage from the break's point of view - will some sprinters try to get in the break knowing that they might have to work for 100kms before they actually get to do some climbing, and only climb for about 20kms in total..
Or it could be one for the rouleurs like Durbridge, Geschke, Hansen or Simon Clarke to try to get enough of a head start and hang on over the climbs before the charge down to the finish. Or else it could come down to a charge to the final climb and the GC men battle it out.
Very unlucky today - Nizzolo, Mr. runner-up, once again finished 2nd, I don't know what that guy needs to do to win.. Actually I do - get him a lead-out train like Modolo had today, they smashed it. Also very unlucky with my 100/1 man Haussler, finishing 4th, just one place outside the money, a great shout that goes unrewarded! Haussler did land a nice match bet at 6/5 though as did Nizzolo but Grosu left us down, he finished in the first group but was in 32nd place. A small (-0.48pt loss) on the day, but it could have been so much more.
The Route
Not much to say about the first 123kms as they first head south-west away from Melide for 50kms until they reach Vilaggi on the south shores of Maggiore and then turn and head north and around the lake through the sprint point at Stresa after 81kms. They then loop around past Mergozzo, through the next sprint point at Bieno before arriving near the finish town of Verbania. They turn left and run along the shore again for 14kms before turning left and heading straight up the steep Cat 1 climb of the Monte Ologno.
The climb is 10.4kms long at an average of 9%, hitting a max of 13%. The climb starts steep right from the very bottom, with the first 2kms averaging over 10%, with the steepest slopes of 13% just around the 1km mark. There is a little plateau 2kms from the top for 500m at 3% but then it kicks up again at 10% for the last 1500m or so to the KOM summit point. It then drops for 2kms or so before kicking up again for about 6kms and tops out at the Alpe Segletta. An 8km descent is then followed by one final kick up to Premeno before a 15kms descent down to the last 5kms flat run to the line.
The descent from the Premeno is very twisty and dangerous, but once they hit the last 5kms on the lake shore it is pretty flat and uncomplicated. As they enter the urban area of Verbania they go through several roundabouts and road dividers and just after they pass the 1km to go kite they take a sharp 60 degree right hand turn. There's one final little kink left with 200m to go and then it's a straight sprint to the finish.
Route Map
Profile
Passo San Pelegrino
Last Kms
Finish
Contenders and Favourites
Picking out the winner of this stage is an almost impossible task! A long break could make it, we're getting towards the end of a hard Giro and lots of teams are tired. There are some brutal days ahead in the mountains too so a lot of guys will be keeping their powder dry for what's to come. But also, with that climb coming with just 26kms of descending and flat roads from the top, there will be plenty of guys who will have their eyes on the stage win. GC men could battle it up the climb, but it now looks of course like it's only going to be a battle amongst the positions 2 to 10, Contador looks home and hosed bar an accident or illness.
The start of the day should be furious - the riders will know the break has a chance of making it on a day like today. But who will be in it and what sort of riders will want to go? Will climbers look to get in the move hoping that if they have a 2 or 3 minute advantage going in to the climb they have a chance of making it? Will Puncheurs try to get in the break hoping that there won't be too many climbers in the mix and they can possibly hang in there and attack away over the top and descend to victory? Or will it be rouleurs who hope to build up enough of a buffer to allow them to grind up the climb and fight it out at the finish amongst maybe a slightly smaller group? Or will it come down to the GC men and KOM contenders chasing it down, racing up the climb and a sprinter who can hang in there takes the victory? So many possibilities, it's very hard to call it on such a strange stage.
Breakaway candidates - Adam Hansen could be a likely candidate on a stage like this, the big Aussie likes a stage like this which will allow him to use his big diesel engine for most of the stage to build up a decent lead and then he has the power at the end of a three week tour to leave a lot of other guys behind on the final climb. He stretched his legs today and could well go on the attack again tomorrow. 80/1 for him.
I'm toying with the idea of picking Betancur again as there are two scenarios where he could have a chance. Firstly, he is not afraid to get in the long breaks, he has done so already this race. Secondly, there are KOM points available at the top of the climb which he could go after, he did go after KOM points on stage 16, getting in the early break and winning the first points of the day. Secondly, he could also sit in and wait for if the break is reeled in and then attack on the final climb. He's very short now though at just 14/1, I might regret this but I think I might leave him at that price..
Ryder Hesjedal has been made the co-favourite with some bookies around 10/1 although there is 16/1 available too on him. It's easy to see why though, he was so aggressive on stage 16, attacking, taking a group, attacking them, getting passed by the Contador express but found a rhythm and ground his way to the stop of the climb. He was very strong and this finish would suit him really well if he has managed to get in the break of the day, he could jump away on the climb again.
Gio Visconti has been made the marginal favourite at 17/2 with Skybet but is generally the joint favourite around 10/1. This looks like a perfect stage for him as he can get in the break, he can wait and sit in with the GC men on the climb if it comes back together, he can descend with the best of them to possibly gain an advantage on the descent and he has a very strong finishing kick after a day like this. He is riding really well and now that he is well off a top 10 place he may just be let go in the break tomorrow. Movistar also have Igor Anton who seems to be getting stronger and Ion Izagirre who rode the final part of the TT in the hills faster than anyone else. They could also try to get in the break, either with Visconti, to help him, or on their own.
Other break candidate? Vasil Kiryienka, our hero from the TT could well fancy this stage tomorrow. He is a superbly powerful diesel for on the flat and a very good climber for on the very hard mountain at the finish. He is well off the pace so should be let go and clearly has very good legs. At 50/1 he might be worth a shot. Pirazzi, Pelizotti, Bongiorno, they could all give it a go. I was going to suggest Geschke but he finished dead last of all the riders on the stage 16 to Aprica, whatever was wrong with him. He did work hard at the front for a long time today too though in the services of Mezgec, so he must have recovered from this previous day's 'jour sans', but may well be tired after drilling it for miles today.
Pieter Weening had been working hard for Matthews, Gerrans and Chaves but could be free to try something on a stage like this tomorrow. He has the power to be a valuable asset to a break and can climb very well too for the tough finish. Fabio Felline could go well also on a stage like this, he seems to be riding better the further in to this race we go.
And what about the GC teams and their men then? Well we should see Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana make the pace in the chase once the break goes, but if there are no dangers in the break they may be happy to let them go and save some energy for the final two hard mountain stages. There could be a battle in behind between the GC men again but I'm not sure they'll be fighting it out for the win. Landa is way too short in the betting around 12/1, I just can't see them letting him go again, even if they brought the break back.
Astana are sure to try to blast it up the climb again, they will try to isolate Contador again and maybe try to drop him on the way up or even on the way down. They also have the likes of LL Sanchez and Paolo Tiralongo who could go on the attack on the descent or who could sprint for the win from a reduced group if they do pull back the break. Tiralongo could well be given the nod to go up the road in the break as well, if he gets to the finale with a small group he has the skills and the guile to win the stage. At 80/1, he's another that has caught my eye.
This should be a stage that Diego Ulissi should like, but he is not going well at the moment, he was dangling at the very back of the long line today for a long time towards the finish of the stage. Rinaldo Nocentini and Patrick Gretsche could be two riders from AG2R that could well go on the attack as well. Ilnur Zakarin has already won a stage from a good combination of climbing and descending skills, but he has looked tired in the last week or so now, I'm not sure he'll go great tomorrow.
It really is a conundrum - I think the break will make it, but there are just so many will want to get in it as they will know the break has a good chance too. It could take a long time for the break to form but it needs to have 6-10 riders at least I think to have a chance of survival, anything less and they won't make it. There could be puncheurs, Climbers, Rouleurs and all-rounders in the break, as they all could have a chance today!
If the break doesn't make it, even then it's impossible to predict what will happen as Contador could attack, Landa could attack, Kruiswijk could attack and so on. Gio Visconti is the obvious and not very imaginative pick for the various reasons I've given above though, but I've scattered a few long shots around too in case we catch a few in the break. There is one other rider I'd like to have a small bet on but no bookie has priced him up, I'll check to see if they will price him up for me and I'll add him if they do tomorrow morning.
Recommendations:
1.5pts win on Giovanni Visconti at 10/1 with William Hill (actually take the 11/1 if you can with Boyles who are paying the first FIVE places)
0.2pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 80/1 with PP (actually take the 80/1 with Boyles who are paying the first FIVE places)
0.3pts win on Vasily Kirienka at 50/1 with PP
0.2pts win on Pieter Weening at 150/1 with Skybet
0.5pts win on Ryder Hesjedal at 16/1 with BetVictor
Matchbets:
Amador to beat Aru - 2pts at 5/6 with 365
Visconti to beat Betancur - 2.5pts at evens
