Details

Published on Tuesday, 26 May 2015 22:39

Giro d'Italia St 17

Tirano to Lugano

Wednesday 27th May, 134kms 

Today they start very close to the Swiss border in Tirano and end in Switzerland in Lugano. Even though Lugano is surrounded by mountains the stage is more or less flat bar a little Cat 3 lump inside the first 15kms. It has sprint written all over it, but that means nothing in this crazy Giro d'Italia.

What can you say about today? What an incredible stage. Hesjedal kicked things off for us getting in the break of the day and then when he decided they weren't going fast enough for him he just took off on his own. Behind, Tinkoff-Saxo were burning a lot of early matches for some reason keeping the break within reach, and it was all bubbling along nicely towards the big test on the Mortirolo. 

Then suddenly all hell broke loose on the descent of the Arpica. Contador punctured and although he got a swift wheelchange from a team-mate, he was dangling 30" back. Katusha attacked with three men going up the road, Astana chased them down and suddenly there were groups all over the road. Astana went straight to the front and continued to push hard, so much so that as they hit the Mortirolo Aru and Landa had a 40" or so lead on Contador. Kreuziger buried himself for as long as he could and delivered Bertie to the steep ramps of the monster climb. 

And then we were treated to a climbing display from Contador - he danced up the climb like it was 2% and not 12%, passing stragglers like they were going backwards. It was an incredible surge and in a matter of a few kilometres he had pulled himself up to a faltering Aru. He sat in, took a drink, then left him for dead. Landa waited, but got the nod to go with Contador. Kruiswijk was sensational today again, one of the star's of the day, pulling himself up the GC to 8th place and in to the KOM jersey.

Hesjedal was superb, grinding up the mountain with Trofimov, but was unlucky to finish 5th, if the Astana boys hadn't blown the race to pieces he may have had a better result. And what about Landa.. The guy who has never finished higher than 28th in the GC of a Grand Tour has now won two iconic stages back-to-back and sits in 2nd place in the GC, 50" ahead of his team leader. Wonderful. 

Four of my picks finished in the top 14 today, but no joy with a return. Good rides by Hesjedal, Betancur, JVDB and Anton though, with Gilbert back in 42nd place. 

And so after the drama of the Queen stage we are back to what looks like being a sprint stage again, last chance for the remaining sprinters before the final stage in Milan. Being a 'Swiss' stage we might have seen the Swiss riders try to win in Lugano, but with the abandonment of Reichenbach yesterday, there's only Sylvain Dillier left in the race! He might fancy a long-range break though, it's not like he's going to win the sprint.

The Route

This is a ridiculously short stage at just 134kms, and being flat for most of the stage they should be done in less than three hours. The route starts in Tirano, just south of where Switzerland pokes a finger in to this part of Italy and hits a Cat 3 climb just 8kms in to the stage with the climb to Teglio (7.4kms at 6.5%) and then it skirts along the Adda river for 75kms until it reaches lake Como. It loops around the northern shore of the lake for 30kms until it reaches Menaggio where the second intermediate sprint of the day is located less than 30kms from the finish. 

There is a short 2.8km climb that averages 6.4% just after the intermediate sprint, which could put some of the sprinters in to trouble, just depends on who pushes it hard on the climb - TFR and Lampre for example could try to shed a few of the sprinters like Viviani and Ruffoni. It shouldn't bother the likes of Nizzolo, Modolo and Mezgec too much though. 

They enter Switzerland with 7.3kms to go and there is one last little lump to get over before they enter Lugano for the final 3kms. There are plenty street furniture and roundabouts to negotiate, including a right hand bend 750m from the line, before the sprint on a downhill finish on a 7m wide smooth road.. 

Contenders and Favourites

This should be a sprint stage, but as we know by now, that's not a guarantee in this Giro. It should be pretty uneventful, but that too is almost an impossibility in this Giro. The break has a chance though as there are going to be lots of VERY tired legs in the Peloton after today's stage, but at the same time, there are plenty of guys who free-wheeled around today and took it easy with tomorrow's stage in mind. 

There should be a break of KOM points hunters go off at the start of the stage, there are some points available on the Cat 3 climb of the Teglio after just 15.4kms. Depending on who's in the break and how much of a gap they'll have at the top of the climb, it's possible they will be pulled back in shortly after and a different break goes. Either way, with a flat, short stage ahead of them it's going to be fast and the break probably won't be given much rope. There are several teams who are going to be looking for the sprint finish so they should be able to keep it under control. 

They could be pulled back between the last two little lumps, with 10kms to go or so, it will be interesting to see if the likes of Trek try to shed some of the other sprinters on the short sharp climb that comes with 28kms to go. There might be some caught out if splits form and if you're badly positioned you might miss out on the front part of the race. There also could be some attacks from the likes of Gilbert, Slagter, Hansen or Visconti on that climb, we could see a little group try to get away but I think they'll be reeled in also.There's one last little lump with 4kms to go, again, if positioned badly you could find yourself out of the sprint before it starts. 

Trek are without a win in this Giro and will be desperate to do something about that tomorrow. Giacomo Nizzolo will be desperate to win this stage too to make up for the disappointment of the sprint he lost to Modolo last time out. He looked after himself today on the climbs, says that he was going pretty well and wasn't far off the main peloton up the Mortirolo but once on the Arpica he just joined the Grupetto and was already thinking about tomorrow.

He said today "Tomorrow we go for it. My shape is good, I'm feeling better every day and all I can say is we will be trying 100% tomorrow." I think he was unlucky in the last sprint, he tracked Modolo perfectly, and when he launched his sprint and was just about to come around Modolo, Modolo veered sharply to his right and blocked Nizz's run. With a clear sprint I think he'd have probably won that stage. Trek will need to step it up tomorrow though and try to do a better job of leading him out, he was quite isolated last time around. 

He also will need to find the right wheels again and not hit the front too soon, he has the speed to beat Modolo I think if he can time it right. It is a tricky finish and he is good at positioning himself in the hussle and bustle of a chaotic finish. He has a tendency to be Mr runner-up though, he has more 2nd and 3rd than 1sts on his Palmares, but hopefully he can get it right tomorrow. He is also fighting for the sprints jersey, he is tied on 119 points with Elia Viviani, so he has even more incentive to try to pick up maximum points tomorrow. I hope he does too as he is one of my picks for the jersey at 11/2, Matthews has gone home. 

Lampré-Merida did an excellent job of delivering Sacha Modolo to the last 200m in the last sprint, Ferrari and Richeze are two of the best in the race at delivering their man in the last 500m. They are sure to be right up there at the front coming in to the last 2-3kms, unless they find trouble on the last little climbs, but I think they'll be alright. Modolo is the 4/1 favourite with Bet365 and unless he finds trouble that looks like a pretty decent 'bet to nothing' each-way, high likelihood you'll get your stake back at least when he finishes in the top 3, with a 4/1 shot on the win bet too.

As I mentioned above, Elia Viviani is looking to try to take the points jersey competition in this race and will be going all out for the win tomorrow too. As I mentioned in my last sprint preview though, Viv doesn't have much help now in these sprints and has to fight for himself. He did well to finish 3rd in the last sprint though considering, but he never looked like beating the first two guys. I think it could be similar tomorrow. 

Luca Mezgec finished 9th in the last sprint, I think it will be a similar 5th to 10th place for him, same for Hofland and Porsev. Heinrich Haussler finished 10th in the last sprint, and that was despite being struck down with a bad tummy bug that weakened him a bit. This sort of messy sprint after a hard mountain stage with a couple of lumpy bits and a tricky finish could suit him well and he might spring a surprise at a massive 100/1. He's a long shot, as he doesn't get involved in many sprints these days, but he did win the Aussie Nationals from a sprint and did get involved in the last sprint in Jesolo and if this is a messy sprint he could find himself up there.    

One rider who I'll be cheering on at a massive price is the young Romanian rider from the Nippo-Vini Fantini team Eduard Michael Grosu. Who? I hear you ask? Well take a look at the final sprint to Jesolo on stage 13, he finished 5th ahead of Hofland, Ruffoni and Mezgec. He's only 22 years old and it's only his first year riding at the Pro-Conti level and is his first Grand Tour. I've been told he was very disappointed with 5th place in that sprint in Jesolo, that he says he has never before had such good legs. He is targeting this stage now that a lot of the sprinters have gone home and as he is a young guy no one has heard of he is a massive 66/1 to win the stage. 

I've been told that the team are going to support him now and he will have the likes of Stacchioti with him at the finish. He is their main man for the sprints now that Colli has gone home. He is very motivated and won 6 races last year, 4 from sprints. He also finished 12th on stage 10 to Forli, but as the break won that day it was actually 8th on the stage. The only worry now though is that just tonight I found out he has been suffering from a cold and a fever and a sore throat, but he is still going to give it a go. 

In the last sprint in Jesolo, Hofland hit him with an elbow but he fought back, then Porsev him him too and he was left a bit disorientated from that, he owes him! He's a long shot, but I want to be on him at 66/1 when he does something, he has a good chance of a podium here. He will be 25/1 next time then.. 

Philippe Gilbert is obviously going very well too, he's got his kick back as we saw with his excellent stage win. Can he get away on those little hills before the finish? It's possible, he rode very well today to come home in 42nd place, coming in with the likes of Zakarin, Intxausti and Niemiec. It will be hard though to get away and he won't win the sprint if it comes to it so I'll leave him I think.

I'm hoping tomorrow is finally Nizzolo's day, I'm backing him at 11/2 to at least podium, I think he has a good chance of turning the tables on Modolo. Modolo should be right up there too, along with Viviani again - Paddy Power can't split them, they go 10/3 all three of them. But watch out for Haussler and Grosu at big prices.

Recommendations:

1.5pts each-way on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 5/1 with various (11/2 is gone)

0.5pts each-way on Eduard Michael Grosu at 66/1 with Betvictor (or 50/1 with others)

0.3pts each-way on Heinrich Haussler at 100/1 with PP

Matchbets

Nizzolo to beat Viviani - 2pts at 8/11 with PP

Grosu to beat Porsev - 1pt at 5/4 with PP

Haussler to beat Lobato - 2pts at 6/5 with 365

Gilbert to beat Chavanel, Nizzolo to beat Viviani, Grosu to beat Apallonio - 2pts at 7/2 with 365