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Published on Saturday, 24 May 2014 17:12

Giro d'Italia St.15

Marostica to Madonna Di Campiglio

Sunday 24th May, 165kms 

No rest for the wicked. Well not today anyway, the rest day is Monday. Some may well have had a rest day though yesterday judging by the times of some who rolled around through the vineyards yesterday. For some it was under strict team instructions to save themselves for what's to come, for others it was fatigue starting to catch up after a breathless opening two weeks of this race.

Great day today with Kiri smashing the TT to land us 20.6pts for the only winners market bet of the race, JVDB also did the business to comfortably beat Aru to make it a total of +22.6pts, to put us nicely ahead now going in to the final week. Small loss on Stage 13 (-2.4pts), but added to the win on stage 12 of +9.5pts, it's been almost +30pts in 3 days.

An incredible stage though with some major surprises, both good and bad. Kiryienka was brilliant, LL Sanchez was outstanding at something like 80/1 to finish 2nd, Contador was stunning to finish 3rd. It was a disaster for Porte, who seems to have completely capitulated now in spectacular fashion, and Uran didn't fare much better, losing two and a half minutes to Contador, but did manage to pick up 16" on Aru who had the worst TT of the top 3 in the GC. 

The Madonna di Campiglio will always be remembered for the Giro of 1999 when Marco Pantani won the stage which finished at the top of the climb. The next day he was thrown out of the race after a blood test on the previous day showed he had a hematocrit level of 52, over the allowed 50 percent level. There was only one mountain stage left and he held a lead of over five minutes over Salvodelli.

The Route

This is a taster for what lies ahead after Monday's rest day, the first foray in to the mountains of the north, Giro del Trentino country. It's not such a long stage at just 165kms, but it's going to be full on all day.

There's only about 15kms of flat roads at the start of the stage before they start climbing and the road is up and down all day after that. They start climbing after roughly 15kms and the first summit doesn't come for another 45kms. The Cat 2 climb of La Fricca is officially 11.3kms though, at an average of 5.1%, hitting a max of 11% right at the bottom. The first 8kms aerage 6% but then it eases off towards the top for the last 3kms to average just 2.7% and tops out at 1096m. 

From the top they then descend on a fast but pretty straight descent for 25kms down in to the valley near Trento. From Trento they go over two little lumps at Vigolo Baselga and Ponte Arche over the next 30kms before they start the gentle drag up to the bottom of the Passo Daone. 

The Passo Daone is quite a challenge - it may be just 8.4kms long, but it averages a very tough 9.2%. The opening 3kms are particularly hard, averaging 11.3%, then it eases a little to just 6% for a kilometre before kicking up again for the next 4kms at an average of 9.3%, hitting a max of 14% about half way up. A quick and twisty 7km descent takes them back down to the valley heading for Pinzolo where the road starts to rise upwards again as they head towards the final climb of the day up to the summit finish at Madonna di Campiglio.

The Madonna is 15.5kms long, a brutal finish to a hard day at the end of a hard and stressful week. The first 10kms are 6.1% average, and is very steady and consistent. It then eases back to just 2.8% for about 2.5kms, but with 3kms to go starts to rear up again, averaging 6.7% for the last run to the line. Just outside the start of the village of Madonna di Campiglio the road is at its steepest, hitting a max of 12%. It could be the point for some attacks if the race isn't already decided by a breakaway winner soloing to victory. There are three hairpins in the last 3kms, but once they get through the tunnel in the last 200m it's straight to the finish line.  

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you even start to try to figure out who could go well today after that TT today?! Contador looks like he is unstoppable now and will surely be looking to make a mark tomorrow by winning in the Pink Jersey on the Madonna di Campiglio. And with the way that he powered to 3rd place in the TT today, especially in the second half of the stage over the hillier parts he clearly looks close to the very top of his form right now. He has been made the 5/2 favourite, and unless a break makes it, he looks like a very strong contender for the win.

So let's look at that possibility first - yes, a break could make it. With Contador so far ahead now in the GC, a lot of the fight will have gone out of the other teams, although there are still eight guys within 5 minutes. That means that there are still 170 guys who will be stage hunting from here on in with the GC out of the equation! If a break goes with a lot of strong riders in it who are not GC threats, Contador and T-S might be content to just let them go and ride tempo at the front to keep Contador safe and out of trouble. 

Astana may well look to rip it up, they could start with a brutally fast tempo on the Passo Daone in an effort to try to isolate Contador, his support has looked fragile at times. If that doesn't work, they are sure to attack Contador repeatedly on the final climb. Luis Leon Sanchez is coming in to good legs as his incredible 2nd in the TT shows - he could be sent up the road early on. Landa is nearly 5 mins back now, so if he attacks near the top, Contador may not be too bothered, Cataldo likewise. Tanel Kangert is much further down now, he could also go for a long one. If they can soften up Contador and maybe have one up the road entering the last 3 or 4 kilometres I wouldn't be surprised to see Aru attack and bridge to his team-mate in an effort to win the stage and take time back. 

Andrey Amador sits in the dizzying heights of 3rd place in a Grand Tour, he must be pinching himself. And this is starting to enter Movistar type territory as they hit the mountains. Stick or twist for Amador? He wouldn't be the greatest climber in the world, so if he want's to try to defend his 3rd spot then he probably will have to play a defensive game rather than an aggressive one. He's got a 38" buffer on Uran, but Uran doesn't look to be 100% at the moment. Maybe they need to just mark him and keep Amador safe.

Let's look at the breakaway candidates first as they do have a chance on a day like this. Carlos Betancur. I predicted that he was starting to come in to some form a little too prematurely, but there is no doubt that he is riding really well at the moment and getting in to all the breaks. It may not be a target of his, but the KOM jersey isn't far out of his reach (15pts behind Intxausti) and there are 78 KOM points available on this stage. I am pretty sure he will be on the attack, but if he misses the early one of the day, he may well go on the attack on the Passo Daone or even on the lower slopes of the Madonna. At 22/1 I want him on-side.

Steven Kruiswijk is a rival of his for the KOM and has been riding really well, always on the attack. He rode a savage TT today, to take 5th place, you have to wonder what that might have taken out of him though. Ryder Hesjedal has been busy, I've picked him twice, he's got in the break both times, but failed to reward us. I think I might watch and see how he climbs on the first big climbs before thinking about him later in the week.

Benat Intxausti, Izagirre and Igor Anton could all get involved for Movistar, and Pirazzi, Esteban Chaves and Mikel Nieve could all go in the break, Chaves could be a really interesting one, he has had a pretty eventful two weeks. 

Another rider who could go really well and has plenty of motivation is Darwin Atapuma - with the death of his mother on the eve of the race it would be a fitting tribute in her memory if he was to win on the Madonna. 66/1 is a pretty decent price to give us a run for our money. 

So there are the break candidates. But what about if T-S or Astana (or other teams who fancy a rider who has missed the break) reel them in and it comes down to a GC battle? Well, can Porte bounce back? I just don't know.. he looks like he has gone in the head and could well not finish this race.. I think I will watch and wait tomorrow to see whether I do something later on the week with him. 

Fabio Aru? Poor TT today, but that was expected. I think he is starting to suffer and I think he may posture and try something but I don't think he will win. Instead, I think Contador will just blast away from him and all the rest if he wants to. And that's a key point here - if he wants to. He may well mark and cover and preserve his strength - he went quite deep today in the TT and it might be a good idea to just get through tomorrow and have the rest day on Monday to help him recover even more before kicking on again later in the week. 

Mikel Landa could blast away early in the climb as the favourites watch Aru, he has been going good enough and is now nearly five minutes back. He has a good chance of winning this stage if he is left a little rope, he may well stay away. But 11/1 is very short, I might just leave him and watch it in play.

Leopold Konig and Jurgen Van den Broeck are two other riders to watch for two, they are both obviously going well at the moment too and both did excellent TTs, in particular JVDB. Konig is now 3 minutes ahead of Porte and that should make him Sky's GC man now. Maybe Sky will turn on the afterburners for him in an effort to set him up for a late attack. Jurgen VDB started well but hit a bit of a flat spot, but his TT today suggests he is now in great shape again. He is now up to 5th and must be eyeing up Amador as a potential catchable target, possibly Aru too if he really is starting to struggle and his illness may be catching up with him. 

Ilnur Zakarin thankfully rode an appalling TT today, finishing almost 5 minutes back on Kiri, it would have made my head explode if he had won or done well today. He ranges from 33/1 to 16/1 for tomorrow's stage but I'm not interested. Finally, a few outsiders - how about Davide Formolo to go on the attack again at 100/1? Kenny Ellisonde at 150/1 could go well, as could Bongiorno at 150/1. 

I think though that we could see it come back together, I think Contador will want to claim a very significant and prestigious stage win on the Madonna. He looks to be completely over his shoulder injury and is looking the strongest of all the GC men. If he decides to attack at the steepest point 3kms out there mightn't be many who can go with him. I'm keeping stakes reasonable though, don't want to give too much of our winnings back straight away. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alberto Contador at 5/2 with William Hill

0.5pts win on Carlos Betancur at 22/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Darwin Atapuma at 66/1 with PP

0.1pts each-way on Davide Formolo at 100/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Betancur to beat Kruiswijk - 2pts at 6/4 with WillHill

Elissonde to beat Bongiorno - 2pts at 7/10 with WillHill

Contador to beat Aru, Intxausti to beat Rechenbach, Caruso to beat Cunego, Cataldo to beat Amador - 1pt on the acca with WillHill at 4.7/1