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Published on Friday, 22 May 2015 23:12

Giro d'Italia St 14

Treviso to Valdobbiadene (ITT)

Saturday 23rd May, 59.4kms 

So this is it then, the long-awaited individual Time Trial that many saw as being hugely pivotal in deciding the winner of the Giro. It's just a shame then that it now looks like this is no longer the case, with Porte's untimely puncture and unfortuntate assistance from a mate has possibly denied us the chance to see Contador having to play catch-up in the final week. 

This was supposed to be the point when the plan started to bear fruition for Porte and Sky. 20 or 30 seconds behind, he could easily flip that around and put a minute, maybe more on Contador, and then defend it like hell with his fresher team in the final week's mountain stages. But once again bad luck has struck for Porte, coming down today in the crash 3300m from the finish line, just 300m from the safety of the 3km marker. 

It's possible that we are now starting to see Aru and Astana pay for a crazy first week of posturing and battering the peloton. Aru couldn't stay with the leaders on a 600m climb to the finish on Stage 12 and looked to be struggling. If that is the case, and I've been saying it for a week, he may not even podium at this rate, Rigo Uran is waiting to pounce, amongst others. 

Alberto has dislocated his shoulder, yet has been the most aggressive of the top GC men in recent days, taking a fine 2nd place on the finish of Stage 12. Like him or loathe him, the man is made of steel and has serious balls. Most others would have gone home with that injury, he has instead extended his lead in the GC in the last week. Ok, we'll never really know how bad the 'dislocation' really was, he has a habit of bluffing and over-exaggerating injuries and ailments, but the man's powers of recovery and braveness cannot be underestimated. 

He says though that he has had to change his position on his TT bike, he was in too much pain the way it was set up, he has had to go with a wider set-up. Again, it could be all bluff and there might be no problem with his TT position, but it is very likely that 59kms in that position will cause him serious discomfort and pain as his shoulder will have to bear a lot more of the pressure and weight than when he is sitting upright on the road bike. That was on the rest day on Monday, when he could only ride for a short while on the TT bike, but it is possible that in the last four days it has improved further and it might not be as bad as it was.

The Route

This is an unusual TT for the Giro, at nearly 60kms in length, it's not a traditional sort of Giro stage, which generally prefers shorter TTs or TTs up mountains. But in recent years the organisers have been adding longer TTs in an effort to attract more international talent to the race. Let's make no mistake about it, this is a very difficult discipline and there will be huge gaps between riders on this stage.

There are not many occassions in the year when riders will have to tackle a time trial over distances like this. The World Time Trial Championships is one occassion, but most riders choose not to even enter it. Other than that, if they are on the Tour de France team they might ride a TT of a distance like this, but again, not everyone will get to ride the TDF. So there is little form to go on in general, a 30 or 40km TT is very different to a 59km TT, especially one that gets harder as the stage goes on.

This is going to be a very hard stage to gauge your effort on - it starts with 30kms on the flat which the general TT specialists should do well on.Go too hard here and you will really struggle later on though, go too easy and you may lose so much time to your rivals that you may not make it back in the latter parts. So you have to pace yourself for 30kms, in itself the sort of distance most TTs are on their own. Then, they hit a climb - a Cat 4 climb to San Pietro di Feletto. It is 5kms at 3.7%, but the first 2kms are steeper, hitting an average of XX%, and it eases off to just around 3% average for the last 3kms as it even flattens out for a little bit in the middle.

the second time check is at the top of the climb and we'll start to get a picture of who's going well or not at this point. There is a little descent and then a small little rise for 1km before a 5km descent takes them back towards Pieve di Soligo and on to 8kms of more or less flat roads. With 50kms done they pass the third time check on the day at Col San Martino and it is also the start of the drag up to the next climb at San Pietro Barbozza.

The climb is a two-step affair though, with the first 4kms taking them to Guia at an average of 3.6%, getting steeper at the top. That's followed by a short descent for 1km to Santo Stefano and then a final kick up for about a kilometre to San Pietro Barbozza. That's followed by a 2.5km descent and a final kick up to the line in Valdobbiadene. The weather forecast is for rain in the morning followed by showers in the afternoon, but it's possible that the latest riders in the afternoon may just have dry roads, favouring them slightly. They will have a cross-headwind on the flat opening 30kms and a tailwind on the hillier parts.  

Contenders and Favourites

People have been saying this course is perfect for Richie Porte and that he could put huge time in to his rivals today. That may be the case, but it's not just Richie Porte who we should consider for the purposes of trying to find some value in this stage! 

Time trials are notoriously hard to bet on, there is rarely value to be had from any of the fancied riders and the bookies generally offer pretty crap terms like no each-way or 1/3 the odds on the first two only etc. It can be very hard to know who is going to react well or badly to a day like this, who is under team instructions to just potter around and who has been training really hard for this and just getting through the stages up until now in order to have a real go at it.

Obviously, the top GC men will all be going flat out in it. If they don't they could lose a minute or more to their rivals and it could cost them three or four places on the GC come Milan. But on the the other hand, they can't go too deep in to the red as they have a tough stage the very next day! They must really hate the Giro organisers for this!

Richie Porte has been made favourite for the stage at just 5/2.. What can we make of that price? Well two weeks ago and even a week ago I'd probably have been all over that bet, but after today's crash, I'm a bit worried about it. Apparently when he went back to the team bus and they pulled out his TT bike to do his warm down on the rollers, he said "I'm not doing any pedalling, my knee is fucked".. But their Sport Director said after "Right now we are going to try to win the stage and then decide" (on their chances for the GC).. so he still seemed quite positive. 

He seemed to be riding quiet well back to the finish line, albeit that he had to ride for over 3kms on a bike that was clearly too big for him and he couldn't sit on the saddle! He had grabbed Kiryienka's bike after the crash, Porte rides on such a small bike it isn't far off being a child's size. Will he still be good enough to win this stage? Quite possibly. I think though I might wait until tomorrow morning to see if there are any updates on his knee, if he wakes up with a sore knee and restricted movement then I'm not going to be touching him. 

Alberto Contador can go well in this but I think he will not break the top 3, so he's not a bet for me. He's not the best time triallist in the world, and with another crash today and the fact that he won't be sitting comfortably on that bike for well over an hour then I think he could well struggle. In fact, he could be one to watch for with Bet365's in-play market they offer on finishing places, 10th+ could be tempting at a decent price, if not, 4th to 10th. 

Fabio Aru - who knows how he'll go. The slippery little eel survived the crash today and gained time on all of them, but I think he could lose 2 minutes to Uran tomorrow, possibly similar or more to Porte and maybe 30" to Contador, although that one is hard to work out with not knowing how Bertie will sit on the bike. In the Vuelta TT last year over just 36.7kms Aru lost 1'24" to Contador and 1'48" to Uran. In the Giro last year, in the hilly TT over 42.2kms Aru lost 2'55" to Uran.

Aru has apparently been working really hard on his time trialling knowing what he faces this year. Word has it that when they were on their training camp in Tenerife he spent every third day on the TT bike and even rode the TT bike on the rest day. Be that as it may, I think he will not make the top 3 tomorrow and I think Uran will jump over him on the GC and on to the podium. 

Rigoberto Uran Uran - this guy could crush it tomorrow. A superb time triallist as he showed in the Giro last year on a similar kind of course, he should put big time in to a lot of the rivals around him. He won the Colombian TT championships in January by 1'33", albeit against pretty poor opposition, but he showed in the Vuelta TT last year though just how good he is at this discipline, losing to Martin by just 15" and beating Cancellara by 3", with Contador 24" back in 4th place.

Will he be good enough to beat Porte though? It could be very tight. I think that Porte could have had 20" or so on him normally, but now that Porte is injured and possibly after losing morale after today's latest setback, Uran could well have the upper hand tomorrow. There isn't much between them in the betting - 5/2 Richie to 3/1 Uran, but on Betfair Uran is trading at 10/3 and that looks tempting.. I might pounce on that in the morning if it is still there if I get an update on Porte's wellbeing.  

Vasily Kiryienka - this machine could cause a surprise tomorrow. It all depends on whether he is allowed blast it or not. I'm going to take it on the assumption that he will be allowed go for it now that Porte is 5 minutes down, they should be going for stage victories where they can now. He should also be useful for setting targets and benchmarks for Porte along the way. He has had a relatively easy two weeks so far, and he showed a little cameo of his strength a few days ago when he slipped off the front a little bit on the steep slopes of one of the climbs, can't remember which one.. but he was just easing himself away gently in the big ring on slopes of over 10%. 

One of the benchmarks for a TT like this, as I said above earlier is the World's TT championship and he has finished 4th in it for the last two years. In 2013 it was over 57.9kms, although it was a pan-flat course, but he was only beaten by Martin, Wiggins and Cancellara, three of the best triallists in the world. Last year it was over a hilly 47kms, and again he finished 4th, behind Wiggins, Martin and Dumoulin, again three of the best triallist in the world last year. He was only 7" off the podium. He could put in a really big ride tomorrow and his price of 22/1 with Will Hill has to be taken, he is only 9/1 with Bet365. 

Others that could go well? Ilnur Zakarin could do anything tomorrow - he rode a stunning TT in Romandie, almost beating Martin, only for he having to replace his bike he would have. Given that kind of performance and given how he rode away from 5 really strong guys a few days ago then you would think he has to have a chance. I can't bring myself to back him though, I think something stinks about the guy. Although as one of my followers said to me not so long ago about him, that shouldn't stop you from backing him, in fact it should make you even more confident of him winning! But at just 5/1, not for me. 

Sylvain Chavanel could go well on this course, he is capable of a top 10, but not a top 3. Dario Cataldo has done some decent time trials in recent years but again, I can't see him breaking in to the top 5 let alone top 3. Tanel Kangert could be an interesting one though - the Astana boys are clearly after taking their vitamins before this race, so they are bound to go well in this TT. Kangert is a very powerful rider, he nearly won stage 12 two days ago, but he ran out of gas on the final climb. It could be symptomatic of Astana's frantic opening to this race, he might be a bit tired tomorrow and could fade at the end. 12/1 is way too short, 19/1 is a bit better but still not for me. He might be one to watch for Bet365's in-play 4th to 10th place market though. 

Izagirre, Konig, Vandewalle, Van den Broeck, LL Sanchez and Durbridge - they could all go well but I can't see them breaking the top 3. At the moment, I think the top three will be fought out amongst Uran, Porte, Kiryeinka, Contador and maybe Zakarin, but for now, my only bet is Kiryienka at 22/1, I'll make a decision on Porte or Uran in the morning, but at the moment I am leaning towards Uran. 

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Vasily Kiryienka at 22/1 with William Hill. 

Watch Twitter for an update tomorrow morning on Uran/Porte

Matchbets: 

Van den Broeck to beat Aru - 3pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Nothing else appeals to me at the moment.