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Published on Thursday, 22 May 2014 21:28

Giro d'Italia St 13

Montecchio Maggiore to Jesolo 

Friday 22nd May, 147kms 

A short, flat day for the sprinters, the last chance for them until the final stage in Milan. After the sprinters teams screwed up on stage 10, they will be desperate to make amends and set up their fast men for a charge to the finish line in Jesolo. It's the first time that the Giro has visited Montecchio Maggiore, but the 5th time Jesolo hosts a stage finish.

This is a day for the GC candidates and the Time Triallists to take it easy and let the Sprinters teams fight it out, with probably one of the most pivotal stages of the Giro the next day.

That was more like it today, Philippe Gilbert doing the business for us and helping land a 9.5pt profit on the day, undoing some of the damage done in the last two days. It was a super win from Gilbert, doing exactly as I thought he would, BMC doing a great job to have so many men to help him at the finish, reeling back the break of Kangert and Pelizzoti in the nick of time. It was vintage from Gilbert though and I was delighted to see him do it. 

And what about Battaglin? 5th place was a tremendous result, although not good enough to land the cash. I was very pleased that he was in the mix though at a big price. It was another crazy day, littered with crashes that took out Simon Gerrans among others, ruining a gamble from 20/1 down to 5/1 when word got around that they were riding for him today and not Matthews (which I predicted last night..). I'm not sure he'd have beaten Gilbert anyway. And as for the guy who had hundreds on Ulissi at just 8/1 on Betfair, unlucky.. 

Contador showed his fighting spirit again and showed again that there probably isn't much wrong with him with a surge to take 2nd place, stealing more time on Aru and everyone else. He now leads by 22". Aru showed signs of weakness today, losing 11" to the winner and Porte, Uran and Contador.

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route, a short stage at just 147kms on a road that starts at the heady heights of 50m above sea level and slowly descends to the coast, passing through Mestre and looping around the Laguna Venezia and almost on to the Lido di Jesolo. The only possible problems they could face will be street furniture, roundabouts and slippy roads, with rain forecast for the whole afternoon. 

There are three rounabouts for them to negotiate in the last 2.2kms, one with 2.2kms to go, then another at 1.4kms to go and a final one with just 500m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

This will be all about leadout trains again, the sprinters teams can't afford to let a break stay away this time, they've already screwed up once. Greipel, Nizzolo, Modolo, Hofland, Mezgec and Ruffoni will be looking for their men to control the race and pull it back together as they hit the last 10kms near the coast. Then they will keep the pace high and their sprinters out of trouble at the front. 

The tricky roundabout with just over 1km to go could be decisive, they go almost completely around the roundabout and hit the kite at the exit. From there it's pretty straight with just a slight kink in the road with 500m to go.

The question is, do we give André Greipel another go at the short price of just 6/4? It's a slightly bigger price than he was on stage 10 and even then he only finished 3rd in the sprint, but I'm sure that wasn't a true sprint from him, they were sprinting for 5th place after all. I think he is the worthy favourite of course, Lotto-Soudal are the best leadout and hopefully they will have some help from the likes of TFR and Lampre-Merida in pulling back any breaks in plenty of time. I think Lotto-S will pull off another text-book finish and lead Greipel to his second stage victory and he should be backed at the 6/4 with Corals, he's only 11/10 with PP, a price closer to what I thought he'd be.

Giacomo Nizzolo 'won' the sprint for 5th behind Marangoni who was the last of the breakaway riders. He has been very active in recent days chipping away at the intermediate sprints where possible, he sits in 4th place at the moment behind surprise leader Nicola Boem, Greipel and Viviani. Trek should put their full weight behind him today and If he can sprint as fast as he did at the finish of stage 10 then he should be right up there in the first three. 

Sacha Modolo was beaten a couple of lengths by Nizzolo on stage 10 and looks like he is maybe 3rd in the pecking order of sprinters behind Nizzolo and Greipel. He's had a mixed race so far, nearly being put in the barriers on stage 2, took '2nd' in the sprint on stage 10 behind Nizzolo and leading out Ulissi in Fiuggi. All other stages have seen him up in the 137th + placings as he just rolled around with the autobus. On a flat, fast finishing circuit I'm afraid his team will get bullied out of it and he'll be scrapping for a wheel hitting the last 500m. I wouldn't count him out of being involved in a crash either.. But if he can get Greipel's wheel he could well podium again. 

Luca Mezgec seems to be getting a little better, he managed to finish '4th' in the sprint on the stage won by Boem, taking 8th place. I think though that he is still a 4th to 10th place man rather than a podium man. Niccolo Ruffoni likewise has been coming close, but not close enough to take a podium spot, I expect the same tomorrow. 

Elia Viviani I think will possibly get a better leadout today, it's only Porte really who is expected to have to smash it in the TT the next day, the rest of the squad can have a rest day in preparation for the mountains to come. So if they are all taking it easy in the TT, then they could come to the fore in the last 5kms here and give it a go to set up Viviani. But I also think after what happened to Porte on Wednesday they'll be all around him looking after him! Too many doubts for me to back him at just 6/1, but he is well capable of a podium spot if on a good day.

Moreno Hofland finished well off in stage 10, in 13th place in the sprint for 5th place.. Since his fine 2nd in stage 2 he hasn't really come close and he could find it too hot again tomorrow for him after a really hard opening 12 stages. 

Overall though I think this is a perfect opportunity for Lotto-Soudal and Greipel to make up for missing out on stage 10, he should be escorted through the final 5kms near the front and should then kick to victory, he has more power and flat line speed than almost every other sprinter here. Nizzolo, Viviani and Modolo should be scrapping it out for the remaining two spots on the podium.

Recommendations:

4pts win on André Greipel at 6/4 with Corals

0.5pts e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 9/1 with PP 

Matchbets:

Nizzolo to beat Viviani - 2pts at evens with PP

Mezgec to beat hofland - 1pt at evens