Giro d'Italia St 6

Montecatini Terme to Castiglioni Della Pescaia 
Thursday 14th May, 183kms 

montecatineUnusually for a Grand Tour it has taken until stage 6 for the sprinters to get a second chance. Ordinarily they would have had 2, 3 or maybe even 4 sprint stages by now, but the Giro is no ordinary race of course. After two exciting days in the hills we're back on a relatively flat stage. 

I say a relatively flat stage but there is the small little lump of a Cat 4 climb to Pomarance on the way, but it shouldn't cause too many problems. At the bottom of the hills though there's 40kms on the flat on the run to the finish. 

Lots of drama again today in Stage 5, but rather disappointingly the break were given about 2 minutes too much time going to the final part of the climb and Jan Polanc held on for a superb victory for Lampre Merida. It was very annoying as the three favourites were battling it out for 3rd place, if the break had been caught earlier we'd have got a return on our Porte bet at the 10/1 e/w as he finished 3rd of the three favourites. He always looked comfortable but it was disappointing that he didn't really make an attack, I thought he looked like he could have put Contador under pressure if he attacked, but he decided to just follow wheels. 

It was a blank on the stage winner bets then, but thankfully the match bets came up trumps with the 10/3 acca landing with Porte, Uran, Konig and Landa comfortably doing the business. Incredibly for one of my single bets, Niemiec and Izagirre finished side by side on their own, and of course Niemiec crossed the line first to bust that 6/5 bet!

It does look like it really is a three horse race now though with Contador in the Maglia Rosa, Aru just 2" behind him and Porte just 20" back. Contador has never lost a race he has led the GC in but he has never had to lead from so early in the race. It'll be an interesting next two weeks for sure. Can he keep it up? Can Aru keep it up after being so badly affected by his 'illness'? Can Porte stick with them on the climbs and then destroy them in the TT? All to play for still as far as I'm concerned, Porte and Contador's prices haven't really changed, Aru has been cut to 4/1 3rd favourite now as the challenge from Uran, Van den Broeck and all the rest looks to be all over already.

 

The Route

A pretty non-descript route, starting inland from the Tyrennian coast at Montecatini Terme and heads south, parallel to the coast until it reaches Ribolla after 150kms. At Ribolla they turn right and head in a south-westerly direction to the finish in the sea-side town of Castiglioni Della Pescaia. 

At 183kms it's longer than the previous two stages, but still quite short. Maybe the organisers felt they needed an easy day after the first mountain finish. The first 80kms or so are almost dead flat, but shortly after Saline Di Volterra they start the only categorised climb of the day, the Pomerance, which is just 6.3km long at an average of 4.4%, max of 11%. It really shouldn't cause any problems and should only serve as a battle ground for some KOM points for the break members. 

It's a strange climb though because the KOM comes at the first climb of a series of hills that go on for 30kms more and rise for another 200m. None of the climbs are hard at all though but the repetition of them, and with the strong-man sprinters teams likely to be pushing it, some might get in a spot of trouble. 

With 63kms still to go from the top of the last hill there is plenty of time to recover and get back on, unless some teams like OGE decide to hammer it to try to keep the pure sprinters behind, but it's unlikely to succeed I think. They descend for approximately 25kms, then the last 38kms or so are almost dead flat as they had back to sea level. It is the first time that Castiglioni Della Pescaia has featured as a stage finish city. With 2.5kms to go there is a ninety degree left hander and then a right hander, then as they hit the sea-front with 1km to go the road jinks right again but the last kilometre is pretty straight and dead flat. 



Route Map

2015 Giro st6 map

Profile

2015 Giro st6 prof

Last Kms

Giro 2015 st6 lastkms

Contenders and Favourites

After two stunning surprises in the winners of Stages 4 and 5, let's hope for a more 'normal' stage tomorrow with a straight-forward sprint among the favourites!

It was round one to Elia Viviani in the second stage, coming with a devastating burst of speed in the final 30m to break our hearts (and Hofland's!!). He used all his track skills and experience to wait until the last moment and launch himself forward. Should he be jount-favourite for the win again? If he can repeat that performance, then yes of course. He can sit in behind the Lotto-Soudal train and Greipel again until the last moment and launch his kick again. 

Things to bear in mind though with regards to El Viv. Firstly, Brailsford said they came here with plans to win that stage and threw Eisel and Puccio in to the trains in the last few kilometres to help get Viv, a notoriously bad positioner, in the right spot to contest the last 500m. He also said that the job from now on is to look after Richie. Viviani said words to the same effect after the win, that from now on his job is to mind the boss. Of course it could be mind games and even if left to his own devices, with the confidence of that win, he could work his own way in to position behind Greipel or Nizzolo's wheel. 

The second thing to bear in mind though is that André Greipel will have learnt from his mistake of going too early and should do better this time. His lead out was a bit messy, they should do better this time too. And he has now had five stages to get warmed up, he should be ready for this. I think he is my favourite to win today and I like his price of 3/1, I think he will get back to winning ways tomorrow. I think L-S will lead in to that right hander with 1km to go and release Greipel with 200m to go this time. 

Behind these two though there are a whole bunch of guys who could get involved again. Moreno Hofland is just 8/1 this time, no 25/1 any more. The way he sprinted on Stage 2 was very powerful, and very clever. He worked his way on to Greipel's wheel very well and bided his time until he made what looked like the stage winning move. I wouldn't be surprised to see him deploy the same tactics tomorrow and could well podium again. 

Sacha Modolo had big hopes on St. 2 and I had big hopes for him too... Unfortunately he was bashed out of a perfect position by Giacomo Nizzolo with about 300m to go and he nearly ended up in the barriers. The team will be buoyed by the excellent result of Polanc today and I think Modolo will be desperate to make amends for the last sprint. Giacomo Nizzolo only managed to finish 6th despite barging Modolo off the wheel, he was even beaten by Pettachi.. I can't have him in a fast flat sprint like this again. 

Luca Mezgec just isn't himself at the moment, Matthews might be good enough for 5th to 8th, Pelucchi hasn't shown anything yet to make me want to back him, same with Ruffoni or Lobato. I think this will be fought out among Greipel, Viviani, Modolo, Hofland and maybe Nizzolo, hopefully Greipel will get it right this time, Viviani could take second with Hofland with a good chance of another podium placing.

Recommendations:

2pts win on André Greipel at 3/1 (take the 11/4 with Skybet, the 3/1 with Corals now gone..)

1pt each-way on Moreno Hofland at 8/1 with Corals

 

Matchbets

Porsev to beat Ruffoni - 1pt at 8/11 with Bet365

Modolo to beat Nizzolo - 2pts at 4/6 with WillHill

 

WillHill Matchbet Acca - Matthews to beat Lobato, Modolo to beat Mezgec, Petacchi to beat Boonen and Bole to beat Reza - 1pt at 4.2/1