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Published on Sunday, 10 May 2015 23:04

Giro d'Italia St 4

Chiavari to La Spezia

Tuesday 12th May, 150kms 

There aren't many more beautiful places in the world to finish a bike race in than this part of Italy and it would have killed off two of my life ambitions to have gone to this stage! To tour the Ligurian coast and to watch a stage of the Giro in Italy.. Maybe next year.. 

A really exciting stage in Italy today, the exciting racing unfortunately being overshadowed for a while with the horrible crash of little Dom Pozzovivo. As he lay motionless on the road it brought back all sorts of horrilble memories of Wouter Weyland, just a day after the anniversary of his death. Thankfully as the race entered the last 10kms or so, reports started coming in that he was awake, lucid and stable for in an ambulance, looks like he has a facial fracture and a deep laceration but luckily nothing worse. 

This lifted the mood a little and allowed us to enjoy the closing stages. Maciej Paterski was brilliant today and gave us a real run for our money at 66/1, only being caught with less than 4.5km to go. Tinkoff-Saxo drilled it all day and as I expected blew the likes of Colbrelli, Mezegc, Nizzolo, Greipel and Viviani out the back. Felline got up well to take second, followed by Gilbert who did a brilliant ride considering he was in the break of the day too. They both clearly have great legs and are two to watch going forward. 

OGE and Matthews were fantastic today though. First putting Clarke and Chaves up the road so they didn't have to chase, then adding Weening to the T-S train near the end to help pull back the break. Then Gerrans did a brilliant job in steering Bling in to the right position, and he did the rest to perfection. A nice 7pt winner there. 

Tiralongo came very bloody close to landing the 100/1, finishing 5th, but although he came fifth he rather disappointingly lost his match bet to Gilbert who was 3rd! Very annoying! Hofland won one Match Bet, lost the other, but all in all it was a 4.7pts profit for me, may have been more for some of you who didn't do the match bets! As James, one follower, put it today "Bling paid for my sub", hopefully that's the case with most of you too. Hopefully we can keep the run going, it's three profitable days out of three, almost three wins out of three, for a running total on stages of +10pts.

The abandonment of Pozzovivo helps the likes of JVDB and Izagirre in their fight for the podium, both were safely tucked away today. It will also shake up the KOM a little, I'm starting to like the look of Porte for the KOM each-way at 25/1, I've been told he could run riot on the big stages.. T-S used a lot of energy today for nothing, let's see if they can keep that up for three weeks. 

This is the home of the veteran sprinter Alessandro Petacchi, but it's unlikely the 41-year old from the SouthEast team will be involved in this finish though, the final climb over the Biassa should see to that.

The Route

Again we start on the Ligurian coast and again, we head in to the hills above the coast for a lumpy, rolling stage. They start a little north along the coast from the finishing town of stage 3, Sestri Levante, and pass through it before heading uphill after just 13kms to take in the Cat 3 climb of the Colla Di Velva. It's a nice gentle introduction to the stage though, a long drag uphill at just 3.6% average for 14kms. After a 30kms descent down to Borghetto Vara.

As they wind their way back towards the coast they climb over the uncategorised climb of the Passo del Bracco before heading back to sea level again at Levanto. From there they start the tough little 10km pull up to the Passo del Termine, which averages just under 7%. From the summit there are 50kms left to go, 30kms or so of which are downhill. With 133kms gone they start on a circuit around the city of La Spezia, which has one final surprise in store which should ensure that it isn't a sprinters finish.

With 136.5kms gone they start on the steep slopes of the climb to Biassa. It may be only 3.5kms long, but it averages a nasty 8% over a very twisty road, with sections hitting over 10% and a max of 14% in the last kilometre. Once over the top it's just 10kms to the finish, 8kms downhill, with the last 2kms almost flat on the run to the line. There are three 90º turns inside the last 2500m, the last one coming with just 700m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is the kind of stage that the likes of Philippe Gilbert and Gerrans must have been eyeing up when making the decision to ride the Giro. This is like a Classics race with a series of lumpy little hills, three Cat 3 climbs but another four or five little hills at least along the way. It is a day that will suit a breakaway and there is a good chance the right break could stay away, it's going to be a hard course to control as they head up in to the hills above Sestri Levante. It's a very short stage again though at only 1 50kms, so it will be full gas from the start probably, as many guys will want to get in the break of the day as it has a chance of succeeding. 

The route has barely a flat section of road on the entire profile, ascending and descending all day on tricky, twisting roads - they are constantly changing direction all day. It could all come down to the final circuit around La Spezia and the ascent of the climb to Biassa. We should get a selection of the punchy classics types and the GC men, although I don't think the final climb is hard enough for the GC men to go attacking each other, they can wait until the next day for that. Although having said that, Contador loves to attack when it's not expected. 

It is 10kms from the top of the final climb to the finish though, so even if some get dropped on the way up, as long as they stay within about 20" or so they have a good chance of getting back on in the charge down the hill. There should be attacks on the climb on the way up and attacks on the way down but it could all come down to a reduced bunch sprint. The finish is tricky though so they will have to be on their toes to avoid crashes on the descent and on the final two kilometres with its sharp bends. 

After today's result, it is little wonder that PP, who are first out with their prices at 18:00, have Michael Matthews as their 7/2 favourite again, followed by Fabio Felline and Philippe Gilbert at 8/1. Simon Gerrans is not far behind at 10/1, Diego Ulissi 12s and TJ Slagter at 14s.  

That was at 18:00 as I said, since then Simon Gerrans has been slashed to 7/1 best price with Michael Matthews out to 5/1.. So it looks like people are starting to think that maybe it's Gerrans turn tommorrow and that he might have a better chance than Matthews on this finish. I tend to agree and I am regretting not taking the 10/1 when it was available. Matthews rode brilliantly today to stay in there when many more fell by the wayside. He is climbing better than ever, but I fear that it is going to be very explosive on this final climb tomorrow and he may just lose contact. I think it is going to be a proper classics-style finish here with big attacks on the final climb. 

Gerrans should be able to stay in there and if it does come down to a small bunch sprint Gerrans would have to be one of the favourites. Of course Matthews could just hang in there, or more likely, he might get dropped but not by much and might be able to get back on in the run to the line. If that is the case though, you'd think that he might be pretty tired and Gerrans could still call rank as team leader and go for the win. Matthews won't lose the Maglia Rosa (unless he is distanced) so it could be all good for the OGE guys again. Apparently though Matthews identified this as the stage best suited to him before the Grio though, just to confuse our thinking a bit more!

Philippe Gilbert was excellent today, working hard in the break all day, and still managing to produce an excellent sprint to take 3rd place. This sort of finish is perfect for him - he could attack on this final climb and try to take a select group with him, from which he'd have a good chance of winning. His sprint today would probably be good enough to win if Gerrans or Matthews aren't there for example. He's quite low though at 6/1. 

Fabio Felline went very close to winning today, taking an excellent second place, but he won't be happy with that. He will fancy this tomorrow I'd think but it may be that if it gets really explosive with the likes of Gilbert, Gerrans, or maybe even GC guys like Uran then Felline may struggle. He could get back in on the run-in like Matthews might, and I think the 16/1 on him is about right, he may not be there tomorrow. 

Diego Ulissi and TJ Slagter are both too short for me, I think they are still lacking race sharpness, Slagter was almost dropped on the Barbegelata today but held in there and finished with the leading pack. I still think Ulissi isn't 100% yet, if he was he would have a good chance on a course like this. Battaglin and Gavazzi are two riders who went very well today too, taking top 10 results, and they could be involved tomorrow again. Gavazzi in particular could go well, he finished 2nd in the Trofeo Lagueglia earlier in the season, beating Felline in the process. He should be able to cope with the final climb, but I fear there will be 3 or 4 better than him in the sprint again. He's not a bad price though at 33/1. 

Paolo Tiralongo got the nod for the sprint today again and despite Astana giving him a good leadout for most of the last 2kms, when it came to about 200m to go he actually got stuck behind a slowing team-mate with Gilbert to his left. He gave Gilbert two shoves on his ass but Gilbert wasn't moving and Tiralongo was slow to get moving. I think he will get another chance tomorrow, and with a smaller, less chaotic group he could go close again. I have to give him another go at 28/1.

If Tiralongo isn't able to do something tomorrow, maybe Luis Leon Sanchez could? He should like this finish and actually was involved in the sprint today trying to help out Tiralongo and he ended up taking 9th place. 50/1 looks tempting too. Just behind him today in 10th was Grega Bole, an old favourite of mine from earlier in the year when he took 3rd in Andalucia at 33/1 on a course with a finish not too disimilar to this and he also won a stage in Croatia recently on a lumpy stage ahead of Paterski and Kump. 66/1 is worth a small bet. 

One final one to think about is little Rinaldo Nocentini - AG2R had a bad day today with Pozzovivo crashing out, he may well look to try to do something tomorrow to lift the team. He was off the pace today, but that could be understandable, but this sort of finish might suit him better. He has a decent finish from a small group.

This could be a great stage again, there will be lots of attacking and chasing like today but I think the peloton will chase them down before the last climb in order to set up their puncheurs and climber/sprinters for the finish. OGE will hold the key to this stage again, probably going to send someone like Durbridge, Clarke or Chaves up the road again in the early breaks, and then they will have Gerrans and Matthews at the end. I'm going with Gerrans tomorrow but I'm going to have a small saver on Matthews again in case he does get back on. They're not the best of mates (notice how loose their hug was today compared to the hugs of his other team-mates??!) and if Matthews saw an opportunity to take another stage win in Pink to add to his Points Jersey total, then he will probably go for it. 

A few other small bets at big prices scattered around as well could pay off. Watch out for Rigo Uran too, he could get involved if it's a reduced bunch sprint, he's got a pretty decent kick in those situations and he could be looking for time bonuses.

Recommendations:

2pts win on Simon Gerrans at 7/1 with PP

0.5pts win on Michael Matthews at 11/2 with Ladbrokes

0.4pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 28/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Francesco Gavazzi at 33/1 with Bet365  

0.2pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 66/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Paterski to beat Finetto - 2pts at 4/6 with 365

Slagter to beat Ulissi - 1pt at 8/11 with 365

Bole to beat Paolini - 2pts at 8/13 with 365

Bole to beat Paolini and Tiralongo to beat Lagutin - 2pts on the double at 5/4 with PP