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Published on Sunday, 10 May 2015 22:24

Giro d'Italia St 3

Rapallo to Sestri Levante 

Monday 11th May, 136kms 

We may only be on the 3rd stage, but what a profile greets the riders today as they already hit the mountains on a short but very tricky stage. They start and finish on the beautiful Ligurian coast but start climbing after just 2.5kms! It's the shortest stage of the race, but is sure to cause a lot of hurt to those who may be looking to ride themselves in to the race.

So very close today with our 25/1 shot Moreno Hofland - it was a brilliant sprint by him to take Greipel's wheel and when he came off it and went past him with about 100m to go I thought Hofland had it. Unfortunately Viviani found a late turn of pace to nail him on the line and steal victory from us.

It was a strange last 500m or so, with Modolo being nudged out of a great position in the leadout by Nizzolo, getting a shoulder from him that almost put him in the barriers. Hard to know if he'd have won it, but it was very annoying for his chances to end like that. It also hurt that Viviani won a stage, something I thought he wouldn't do and backed in my Miscellaneous markets page, not a great start for that lot! 

It was a small 0.51pt profit on the day bets but -2 on the Viviani not to win a stage bet, but it could have been a big pay day. Annoying that Porte finished 2 places ahead of Contador, Nizzolo must have had money on his match bet with Modolo as his assasination attempt on him blew that one, but thankfully Hofland and Gilbert came good. Pozzovivo lost 1'08" again today to take his overall deficit now to the leader to 1'57". Niemiec, Ulissi and Danielson also lost time today.

On to stage 3 then and what an interesting stage we have in store.. how many of the fast men can hang in there? It'll be interesting to see..

The Route

The start and finish are only about 20kms apart on the coast but for most of the day they are riding north-west away from the finish. It is a very short stage at just 136kms, many club riders will have done more on Sunday morning! It may be short but it's not a stage for the GC men to relax in as the action should be fast and furious all day and they will climb over 2,300 metres in the day over some very twisty, turning, narrow roads.

Straight away as they head across the peninsula to Recco they hit the first little rise of the day and it sets the tone for a day of rolling hills. After 12kms they start on the first Cat 3 climb of the day and we'll probably see the KOM leader go off on the attack early on in order to secure the jersey for another day. 

The Colle Caprille is a nice gentle 12kms at 5% where they rise 450m, but then descend again for 8kms or so to start a long, prolonged ascent that takes them over 5 'peaks' on an uncategorised climb that goes on for some 40kms until they hit Rondania at the northern-most part of the course. They then turn and start heading south-east to the finish, but on the way they have to get over the Cat 2 climb of the Barbagelata (the Frozen beard!) which is a tough 8.1% average over 5.7kms, hitting a max of 12%. The final 500m hits gradients of nearly 10% so we should see a good battle for the KOM points and also from anyone who wants to attack before the descent.

Once over the top of that there are just 43kms to go, 20kms of which are a steep and twisty descent which could give the attackers one last chance to pull out some more time on the chasers, or if they've been neutralised, the chance for good descenders to try to steal an advantage. 

With 24kms to go the gradient eases a little but it's still descending for another 12kms. Only when they reach Chiavari on the coast does it start to flatten out for the last 10kms. The last 7kms or so are ridden along the Via Aurelia, and they need to watch out for a tricky roundabout with 850m to go, but the finishing straight is nice and straight for 850m on a slight descent.
 

Contenders and Favourites

We're only on the second road stage but they start climbing in this stage after just 2.4kms! There should be plenty of attacking early on, the opening 25kms are perfect for attacking with two climbs. The bigger of the two to Colle Caprile is over 12kms long at 5%, we could see a group of 8-12 riders or maybe more go away very early on this stage, and if they are strong rouleurs and climbers in there they could build up a big lead. There will be plenty of guys with fresh legs ready to make an impression and get some early TV airtime. 

After descending off the Colle Caprile they start climbing again, and bar a few small downhill retracements they will be climbing for more or less 40kms. If that wasn't enough to shake off the sprinters like Greipel, the final climb to Barbagelata (or Frozen Beard!) should take care of most of them. It's a tough Cat 2 climb and we could see all sorts of action in the last 50kms. I personally think that this will be a very exciting stage..

There are many factors to try to bear in mind then when trying to figure out what will happen on this stage. The break, if the make-up is right, could make it all the way, the GC teams will probably be just looking after themselves ahead of the first mountain stage. Some teams like Orica-GreenEdge and Trek will be looking to pull it back though. The sprinters teams will not be doing any chasing either as men like Greipel and Viviani are not going to make it over with the front of the group. And then we could have the late attackers - either at the top of the climb or on the way down. 

I think it's likely to come down to a reduced bunch sprint, but probably quite a large group of 60 riders or so. I think OGE, TFR, BMC, Lampre and Giant-Alpecin will want it badly enough to put enough men at the front to pull back the break and keep it under control on the run to the finish to set up the sprint. 

I think OGE will have a strong chance of winning this stage, with two very strong candidates for the win in Michael Matthews and Simon Gerrans. They have the Maglia Rosa on Matthews now and will be looking to keep it for at least one more day and will be looking to secure another stage victory. Matthews should be able to cope with these climbs and will be one of the favourites to take the sprint from this reduced group of sprinters. If that plan fails for some reason, like if Matthews gets blown out on the final climb, they they have plan B in Simon Gerrans, who should be able to make it to the finish and has a great sprint in these situations. 

Michael Matthews have been installed the 7/2 favourite with Ladbrokes, he is 3/1 with others. Gerrans is 18/1 with Ladbrokes and I'm almost tempted to back both!

Giacomo Nizzolo is probably going to find it too hard tomorrow, and he is reportedly suffering from allergies which hindered him today. Instead, Trek can look to Fabio Felline maybe instead. Felline has been in great form lately, beating Matthews in a stage in Pais Vasco. He can climb very well and has a good sprint in a small group. 10/1 is too short for me though, would have wanted 16/1 or 20/1 on him.

BMC have Philippe Gilbert here too who could be looking to stir things up on the final climb, on the descent or even on the run in to the finish. Even if he holds off for the sprint he has a chance. He is targeting some stage wins in this race and this stage is one that he will have marked off in his roadbook, that is if he has recovered well enough from his crash in FW though. 25/1 is about right but I think I'll leave him for this, not sure he will make podium

Juan Jose Lobato for Movistar could get involved too, but 8/1? 12/1 best price but it's not a hugely tempting price. He got caught out in a crash today, but didn't come down, and wanted to get involved in the sprint. He should have another chance tomorrow. He can climb pretty well in a stage like this and as we know from his victories in Andalucia and Down Under he can sprint well at the end of a tough, hilly day. 

I don't think Mezgec, Greipel, Viviani, Petacchi, Appolonio or Colli from today's top ten will get over the climbs with the front group, but 10th place man, Paolo Tiralongo could well do, and as we saw today he is being given the nod by Astana to go for the stage wins. I tipped him up in a couple of stages in Trentino and he only went and won the day that I wasn't on him. That victory though shows he has great legs at the moment and I don't want to miss him winning another race and I not being on him! He is 100/1 with BetVictor and 66/1 with others, he's worth a small bet each-way.

I also want to give Moreno Hofland another go, he was superb today tracking Greipel and easily passing him, just mugged by Viviani on the line. In the Tour of Utah last year he won two hilly stages and in the Vuelta he finished 3rd behind Degenkolb and Bouhanni on stage 5 which had a tough Cat 3 climb not far from the finish. At 25/1 I'm giving him another shot, he gave us a profit on him today after all. 

There are so many others who could win this - Meersman for EQS, Modolo could make it over and will be pumped up for revenge after being bumped out of a brilliant position today. Finetto, Colbreli and Battaglin will have their supporters, but I don't think they are good enough. Oscar Gatto, Diego Ullissi, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Sylvain Chavanel - all guys who could get involved in some manner or another. Maciej Paterski has been going brilliantly lately. After tipping him at 150/1 or something like that for Amstel Gold he took a great 9th place, then went to the Tour of Croatia and won two stages and a 2nd place en route to winning the overall, the points jersey and the KOM jersey! At 66/1 he is worth backing tomorrow, CCC are looking keen and active in this race.  

I think though that although it will be hard to control it, the GC teams of Sky and Tinkoff-Saxo will help control things. They should keep the pace high enough to string things out a little and keep their leaders out of trouble, so OGE should have some help. I think they will pull it back on the climb or not long after it and there could be chaos coming down the descent with riders attacking all over the place. It should settle down in the last 10kms though and we should see Gerrans and Matthews come to the front. I wouldn't be surprised if Gerrans led out Matthews, with Gerrans maybe getting the service in return on another stage. Gerrans, if he does a good enough job could even take a podium himself, and also if anything happens Matthews he would be the main man then. So I think it is worth backing both of them. Tiralongo and Paterski are also worth a go at big odds, with Hofland hopefully getting involved too. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 7/2 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 18/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 100/1 with BetVictor

0.3pts each-way on Moreno Hofland at 25/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Maciej Paterski at 66/1 with PP 

Matchbets:

Hofland to beat Nizzolo - 2.5pts at 6/5

Tiralongo to beat Gilbert - 1pt at 4/6

Gerrans to beat Battaglin - 2pts at 4/6 all with PP

Hofland to beat Mezgec - 1.6pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Slagter to beat Ullissi - 1.5pts at evens with 365