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Published on Monday, 13 April 2015 22:53

De Brabantse Pijl 2015

Wednesday 15th April, 203kms

After a brilliantly exciting Paris-Roubaix last  Sunday (well a brilliant last 15kms or so!), the final race of the 'Flanders Classics' of the season takes place Wednesday with the De Brabantse Pijl or 'the Brabantse arrow'. This is generally one for the punchy riders who can sprint a bit, there's lot of little climbs, lots of cobbles, but more often than not ends in a reduced sprint finish of some sort. 

Last year Philippe Gilbert landed his second victory, just outsprinting Michael Matthews, using all his experience of the course to outfox Matthews on the final bend. Matthews went up the inside, got trapped a little behind Arashiro (yes, Arashiro!) whereas Gilbert went around the outside and got an early jump on Matthews. Then as Bling started to pull alongside, Gilbert eased him over to the right hand side, blocking him off enough to land the win as you can see in the video further down the page. 

The other impressive fact about Gilbert's win last season was that towards the end of the race a very dangerous group got away, Simon Gerrans being one of the escapees, and Gilbert panicked a little and went off in solo pursuit to try to reel them in as he was not getting any help at the time from anyone else. He chased for almost 10kms before finally bridging, but shortly after Giant pulled the break back anyway! He still had enough in his legs though to power in to a good position on the final climb and then sprint to victory.

Gilbert has a pretty good record in the race to say the least, in the last seven years he has finished 1st, 2nd, 12th, 1st, 5th, 9th and 2nd, an incredible series of results in one race. Gilbert is back to defend his title and he again faces off against the other two on the podium last year, Matthews and Gallopin.  

It's a really tough course, one for the real battlers and puncheurs.. Looking at the last few years result there were riders scattered all over the road with many of the field DNF'ing. It was even worse in 2012 when Voeckler won, with only 44 finishing out of 180 starters. 

This race was won by Oscar Freire three years running from 2005 with Luca Paolini in 2004 and Sylvian Chavanel winning it in 2008. But three years running still isn't enough to put him at the top of the 'most wins' chart, that honor falls to Belgian cycling 90's legends, Edwin Van Hooydonck and Johann Musseuw, with 4 wins a piece. 

Part of the reason for the high numbers of DNF'ers in 2012 was the terrible weather - hail and rain all day.. They should have no such problems this year though as a beautful sunny day is forecast, with temperature reaching as high as 24º. Another reason for the high number of DNF'ers in general in this race is the tough course, but also because of the nature and timing of the race - it essentially is a training ride to prepare for the Ardennes Classics for most of the peloton, which kick off on Sunday with the Amstel Gold race. When you're out of contention or just not feeling like you want to push yourself too much, there isn't the same incentive to try and finish it as there is say to finish the Ronde or Roubaix, where it's a badge of honour just to finish. 

It is a natural transition race from the cobbled Flanders Classics to the hillier Ardennes Classics - it has plenty of hills, 25 of them no less, but they are short and sharp compared to the longer Ardennes hills. There are also some cobbled sections to help ease the transition for the cobbles lovers. 

After a very profitable Paris-Roubaix where I landed 1st and 3rd and 7 out of 10 bets, here's hoping to another good day tomorrow!

The Route

The race starts in its traditional start town of Leuven and it doesn't look like they have changed the route at all from last year's. It heads in a predominantly south-westerly direction, pausing for a tricky little loop around the area just east of Overijse. This loop contains the climb of the Rue de Hal after 57kms and also the former landmark climbs of the Alsemberg after 67kms and the Bruineput after 73km.

After taking in the climbs of the Karbosstraat, Rue de Nivelles, Chaussee de Bruxelles and Rue Francois Dubois in that loop, it then continues south-west until almost reaching Nivelles, before turning sharply and heading back north. They pass a number of Hellingen on the way before hitting the finishing loop which they take three times in total. And although there will be the traditional long break out front for most of the day, it's when they hit this finishing loop that things start to kick off. 

The finishing circuit has no fewer than five climbs over its 23.4kms, two of which are cobbled, meaning that they have to tackle 15 climbs over the closing 70km! 

The main challenges on the finishing circuit are the cobbled climbs of the Ijskelderlaan which comes 4.2kms from the finish line and the Schavei which is just 1.2km from the finish, with the road climbing all the way to the final bend. Once they crest the top the riders make a left-hand turn onto a slightly uphill finishing straight with just 200m to go to the line. You need to be in the first 5 or 6 taking the final bend as it is a very short run-in. The last 5kms are quite tricky with lots of bends and twists, including some hairpin bends on a descent, so you can see why the race is often blown to pieces.  

Contenders and Favourites

As I've mentioned before this is a race suited to a strong punchy type who can sprint a bit. It's no wonder that Philippe Gilbert is one of the favourites with his record in the race. He's also 4/1 favourite for the Amstel Gold on Sunday and will be keen to repeat his success in both races last year, when he followed up his victory in the Brabantse with a brilliant victory in Amstel Gold. This is his time of year, these next few weeks are what his season revolves around and once again he has prepared with these races in mind. 

Without being victorious yet this season he has ridden well at times, testing himself in long range attacks, shorter attacks and some sprint finishes, taking 5th in stage 2 of Pais Vasco. It's not like he has the results of say Kwiatkowski, Matthews or Valverde this season, but he should be ready to shine again this week.

Michael Matthews could well be his biggest rival again this year, he has been in good form, taking a 1st, 3rd and 4th in Paris-Nice, 3rd in Milan-San-Remo and a 1st and 2nd in stages of Pais Vasco just last week. If you were backing a form horse, then he would be the one. He finished 2nd last year, but as I mentioned above, he made a tactical mistake on the last corner and got trapped on the inside as Gilbert made the jump on the outside. I firmly believe if he had jumped a bit sooner with Gilbert, he'd have beaten him. 

He has opened with Paddy Power, the only bookie with prices out on Monday night, at 2/1, which is shorter than I thought he'd be, I was hoping Gilbert would be favourite and maybe 3 or 4/1 for Matthews. I'll hold off for a while until Bet365 or someone else prices it up to see if we get bigger than 2/1, but I think he's our winner. His team this year may not be as strong as last year's, but with Gerrans, Howson, Meyer, Lancaster and Co. he should be well looked after. He's not averse to going on the attack or chasing down dangerous moves on his own though as he showed with a little cameo at the top of the Poggio, going after Van Avermaet.  

Fabio Felline has had a brilliant start to the year, culminating in his 50/1 win in the sprint of stage 2 of Pais Vasco, beating Matthews, the favourite for the stage. He also finished an incredible 4th in the the final TT up the hill to Aia, displaying a range of all-round abilities that few can match. He showed his improving TT abilities already this year before that though, with victory in the 7km TT in the Criterium International and 3rd place in the TT in the Etoile de Besseges. 

He also has had some other great results this year, with top ten finishes in Murcia, the Drome Classic, the Classic Sud Ardeche, Trofeo Lagueglia, Strade Bianche, the Classica Corsica and the Criterium International. He is clearly riding at the highest level of his career so far, and the Marouan Fellaini look-alike could be a big danger in this form, he's already beaten Matthews just a week ago. He has only done this race once though and that was last year when he finished in 26th place, 10" down on the winner.

He doesn't have a great deal of experience over cobbles either, so look for Orica-GreenEdge and BMC to try to leave him behind on the final cobbled sections. He has Devolder, Stuyven and Van detailed to look after him on the cobbles, but Devolder crashed in PR on Sunday, don't know if he's hurt from it. They also have the two Van Poppel brothers as sprinter back-ups in case.. At just 15/2 now though he might be a bit short. 

Julian Alaphilippe and Gianni Meersman are pretty close in the betting at 14/1 and 18/1. Julian Alaphilippe has been disappointing more often than not and blew a win in the second last stage in Catalunya when I had him backed.. I can't trust him to get it right at that sort of price, even if this sort of terrain should suit him. Gianni Meersman would normally be a better option at a bigger price, he's been going well this year too with his victory recently in the Handzame Classic his third win of the season. But he has been ill and dropped out of the Pais Vasco before the end. He likes an uphill finish though and with Etixx missing out yet again on a win in Roubaix, they will be keen to try to notch a victory quickly to make up for it, if he has recovered enough.

Lotto-Soudal come here with probably the strongest looking squad, packed full of potential winners. Last year's third place finisher, Tony Gallopin came from far back in the sprint to nab 3rd place, and he has been going strongly this season too with some good results, including his powerful solo victory in the Paris-Nice stage to Nice. He can either hold back for the sprint again, or he's also capable of a flyer off the front in the last 20kms or so. 

Same could be said for Jurgen Roelandts, very strong lately, leading solo in the gales at Gent-Wevelgem for a long way, but also looked good in Flanders and Roubaix. He doesn't really have anything to show for those performances so might be keen to try something from afar again to try to take the victory, or at the very least make the other teams work hard to pull him back, freeing up the other guys. 

Tim Wellens is currently down to ride, but doesn't appear to be in the betting at the moment.. I've been told he is targeting Amstel Gold as his next big goal, and like Gilbert last year should be using this race to gauge and fine-tune his form. He showed in his attack in Pais Vasco on Friday that the form is coming, he just struggled on the 20% gradient at the end, like many, many others though! He could go from afar again or maybe wait for the last circuit or two where there are plenty of climbs. I've backed him at 80/1 for Amstel, he might be worth a small bet as well for this, as long as he rides and there are odds available on him! (scratch all that, looks like he isn't riding now after all!)

Other than that. L-S have Thomas de Gendt, who is in good form, could try a long breakaway, Pim Ligthart, who was in great early-season form on hilly courses in Marseilles and Andalucia and Tosh Van der Sande who has had a couple of decent placings in the three days of West Flanders (2nd) and in Catalunya, where he finished 4th in stage 1, but 'won' the bunch sprint ahead of Alaphilippe, Gasparotto and Coquard.

Team Cannondale Garmin have a few lively outsiders with Nathan Haas and Ramunas Navardauskas. Haas has been relatively quiet this year, with only 3016kms raced in only 19 race days so far this year (compare that to Alexander Kristoff who has raced 5135kms in 30 race days!). He started to show that his form was coming right just in time for the Ardennes Classics with a good showing in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe where he finished 5th in the GC. He finished 2nd in the bunch gallop on stage 1, but Bouhanni was so far ahead in the sprint it was like Haas won the bunch sprint!

He placed 6th here last year, after some great work by Jack Bauer he totally messed up the sprint, getting caught on the inside like Matthews and then riding in to the back of slower riders like Rebellin. By the time he got out and got going around the outside it was too late. But the Kiwi showed that he has the legs and the finish to perform well in this race if he can ride the finish a bit differently. Ramunas Navardauskas has had a quite start to the season too, but then again, the entire Gardale squad have, with just the xx win to their name all season. Only Lotto-JumboNL have fared worse. Navardauskas is traditionally a man for this kind of terrain too, the shorter, sharp hills suit him well and he has a decent kick on an uphill finish, but I don't think he'll be in the first ten tomorrow, he wil probably have to work for Haas.

Bryan Coquard will have his supporters tomorrow, he has shown an ability to be there at the finish of hilly stages, and with his sprint finish he could be a big danger to Matthews and Gilbert. He took an excellent 2nd behind Cimolai in stage 5 of Paris-Nice, beating Matthews in the uphill sprint and took a good 2nd behind Valverde in the final sprint of the Tour of Catalunya, a very up and down closing circuit. He looks big at 50/1, he should be close enough at the finish and his speed could get him a place. 

Wanty Groupe Gobert will look to a man who knows this course inside out and back to front, Bjorn Leukemans. 5th in 2014, 3rd in 2013, 2nd in 2011 (didn't ride 2012), 7th in 2010, 4th in 2009, 7th in 2007, 12th in 2006. In fact in the 8 runnings he has entered, 13th is his worst result he achieved in 2004! He's certainly mr. Consistency and he should be there or thereabouts again tomorrow. I tipped him last year at 16/1, he was not far off landing the each-way money in 5th place. When Paddy Power opened Monday night he was 66/1 and I had to have some of that again. He's now 40/1, but as big as 50/1 and as short as 25/1. 

And there are lots of outsiders from the smaller teams who could be involved - Bardiani come with a strong looking squad, Enrico Battaglin, Stefano Pirazzi, Sonny Colbrelli, Nicola Ruffoni, all decent riders who could spring a surprise here. Sonny Colbrelli is probably their best chance and he's a decent enough price at 66/1. Sbaragli for MTN Qhubeka has been riding really well, with an 8th place in KBK and a 7th in Paris Camembert two highlights. He opened at a massive 350/1 with Bet365 but the shrewdies hit that fast, best available now is 150/1. He could be worth a small bet each-way. 

Paterski, Ponzi, Bole, Devenyns, all could go well at big prices, but I think we'll see a very similar situation to last year with Gilbert, Matthews, Haas, Leukemans and Gallopin all at the front as they head towards that last left hand bend. We could see the likes of Colbrelli, Coquard or Felline involved this year too. I think Matthews will have learnt his lesson and will be very hard to beat tomorrow, Gilbert might have to settle for 2nd ahead of Felline. There is some 5/2 available now, it's not a great price, but I think he'll win 

Recommendations 

Bjorn Leukemans - 0.5pts each-way at 66/1 with Paddy Power

Michael Matthews - 2pts win at 5/2 with 888Sport

Bryan Coquard - 0.5pts each-way at 33/1 with Ladbrokes (50/1 with Bet365 now gone)