Details

Published on Friday, 28 March 2014 21:55

Gent Wevelgem Preview

Sunday 29th March, 240kms

The racing is coming thick and fast now, DVV was won in spectacular fashion on Wednesday by the Topsport boys, followed by a dramatic E3 Harelbeke on Friday, won in brilliant style by Geraint Thomas. The Flanders festival of cycling moves on to Gent on Sunday for a Classic for the sprinters, in Gent Wevelgem.

There was indeed plenty of drama in E3 Harelbeke, with several riders crashing almost as heavily as the organisers pathetic attempts at PR. Fabian Cancellara is out of the Spring Classics with broken vertebrae, after crashing hard on the Haaghoek early in the race.

The crash took out a lot of riders, including Langeveld, Amador, Eriviti, Molari and Wagner. Later we had Greg Van Avermaet doing a nasty head-over-heels at a point in the race which was hugely decisive in the outcome. At the time, Thomas, Stybar and Sagan were clear after escaping on the Kwaremont - the gap had fallen from near a minute to around 24", but the crash stalled the chase momentum and suddenly the time gap shot up again, and they were safe.

Sep Vanmarcke was very strong but as he went to try to attack on the Paterberg he slipped in the mud and broke the clip for his pedal and couldn't pull any more, only push. He struggled on until the last 20kms when he changed his shoe, and then sprinted to 5th (3rd in the sprint behind Trentin and Kristoff). With Cancellara out now and with that show of strength and sprinting power I'm feeling pretty happy with my Double on him for Flanders and PR, it pays 57/1! I'm also feeling pretty happy I backed Stijn Devolder at 150/1 last Tuesday, with Cancellara out of Flanders he should lead the team. Let's hope he recovers from the horrible fall he had in the same spot as Lars Boom! 

It was another winner for me though in Geraint Thomas, which was very satisfying as the early crash put paid to Degenkolb's chances. Thomas was brilliant and keeps up a great winning run for Sky and for me backing them! It also means that if you remove the blot that was DVV where I got nothing right (!) I have picked the winners of four out of the last five big one-day races in Europe. Cavendish in KBK at 4/1, Stybar in Strade Bianche at 10/1, John Degenkolb in MSR at 14/1 and G in E3 at 14/1! Let's hope it continues with Gent-Wevelgem!

Gent Wevelgem is another step though for the rest of the healthy peloton towards the monuments to come in the weeks ahead. It may have its cobbled sections, including the famous Kemmelberg, but it is generally a sprinters race, hence all the big sprinting guns are here. After missing out last year due to illness, Mark Cavendish is back to try to get back to winning ways after being struck down by a bug  first and then by a dropped chain in MSR.. But he will be joined by some seriously strong opposition - men like André Greipel, MSR runner-up Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Arnaud Démare, Peter Sagan and Nacer Bouhanni. 

Sagan won this pulling wheelies in 2013 after soloing away in the last 4kms from a group of 10 in a race that had been shortened by some 90kms because of extremely cold weather conditions. Last year John Degenkolb got the better of Démare and Sagan with Vanmarcke an impressive 4th again. But with the wind often having a major impact on the race it's not always a big bunch that gets to fight out the finish. Edvald Boasson Hagen (09), Bernie Eisel (10), Boonen (12) and Sagan (13) have won from reduced bunches and small breaks. 

Tom Boonen has a great record in this race, like in most Belgian Classics, winning it in 2012 and 2011 and again as far back as 2004 when he beat Magnus Backsted as a prodigious 23-year old. He'll be missed, as will Cancellara.   

The Route 

The race is almost identical to last year's route, but they have extended the length by 7.2kms to 240.2kms in total now. It starts in Deinze and not in Gent as the name might have you think, and heads in a west-north-west direction towards the coast until they reach Adinkerkeand then start heading south back inland. Things start to get interesting (unless the winds near the coast have already caused splits) when they reach the south-western corner of the course and head in to the Hellingen, or cobbled climbs, which are taken in exactly the same order as last year. 

There are nine key Hellingen which could cause breaks to go and splits to happen, they are listed in the graphic below. The first one (Casselberg) comes after 115kms and the last one (Monteberg) comes after 197kms with just 26kms to go.  The Casselberg or Mont Cassel as it is known, may be cobbled but there are large sections of it that have been tarmacked over so it isn't all that difficult on the face of it, but it hits 19% in parts!

The Kemmelberg is similar in that it is partly paved, partly cobbled but can be very rough in parts and is one of the steepest slopes in the whole country. The ascent is steep and rough, but the descent is even worse - a very narrow, dangerous track that barely passses as a road. It has been used as a launch pad for attacks before, such as in 2007 when Marcus Burghardt blew it apart on the descent with four others before he went on to win. Same the year before when Hushovd won it after escaping with a bunch of 32 riders on the roads after the top of the Kemmelberg.

That and the Monteberg are the last opportunities for breaks to go so the sprinters and their teams will need to be on their guard as the run in to the finish is pretty flat and straight and perfect for setting up their speedsters.  

A key factor in the race is going to be the weather though, the forecast is pretty awful with rain and wind expected for most of the day. The wind's expected to pick up as the afternoon goes on, hitting 24mph in the afternoon. It will be a cross/head-wind as they head out on the course towards the coast, then as they turn and head south west it will be a nasty head-wind. As they do the loop in the south-west corner the wind will be coming at them from all angles, but as they head towards the finish they will have a cross/tail-wind which will make it a fast run-in to the finish. With rain expected for most of the day it could be dangerous and it could be one to watch the in-play betting very closely in case of any accidents. 

Contenders and Favourites

There is a possibility that the race will be split up in the cross-winds and possibly because of crashes so it could be a strange old race where we see a surprise result like in the Dwars door on Wednesday with Wallays winning. It is most likely to come down to a bunch sprint though given the long run in to the finish from the last Hellingen so I'm going to focus mainly on the sprinters in the race. 

Mark Cavendish was favourite for the race when prices came out first at 7/2 and if this race was three weeks ago I'd probably have been all over this. I could have seen him win it in the style of KBK, when he was delivered perfectly and sprinted past Kristoff with ease. The bug leaves us wondering though what sort of form he is in, he's had another week to recover after MSR and was spotted out doing a recon of the course during the week.

I thought he looked to be under a lot of pressure in MSR and didn't look to me like he was going to hang in there much longer, I think the 'dropped chain' incident was just a handy excuse. If he is back to his best he will be very hard to beat and could come here a lot fresher than the likes of Degenkolb, Sagan and Kristoff who all had tough races in the E3 on Friday. 7/2 was way too short for me, I'd have been laying that rather than backing it. With the forecast now the way it is he is on the drift and has been pushed out to 5/1, he looks to be friendless in the market, which I'm not surprised with. I'm not going to be backing him and may well look to lay him to place on betfair depending on the price.

Joint favourite for this at 5/1 though is Sweden's Alexander Kristoff and he has been in great form all year. He has beaten most of these guys already this year, but in recent weeks he hasn't been as prolific as at the start of the season.. Beaten in to 4th on stage 3 and 6th in stage 5 of Paris-Nice, beaten by Degenkolb when he ran out of gas on the line in MSR, and beaten in the sprint for 3rd place by Matteo Trentin in the E3 on Friday. The inclement weather will no doubt play in to his favour, but the fact he was beaten by Trentin worries me, no disrespect to Trentin!

John Degenkolb was a brilliant winner of Milan San Remo and was my favourite for the E3 on Friday. Unfortunately he came down in the same crash that took out Cancellara and so many others and he had bruising to his hips and back which could have hindered him tomorrow, but the word seems to be that he is ok and he has been training on the turbo this week out of the rain. Impressive winner of this 12 months ago, beating Démare and Sagan, with Vanmarcke in 4th. On a rough and tough day he is perfectly suited to a course like this, he was supremely comfortable on the climbs in San Remo and managed to finish 25th in the E3 despite his crash. He looks a strong contender to make it a second super Sunday in a row for Giant-Alpecin.

Peter Sagan just continues to confound us all, he looked nailed on to win on Friday but apparently had a hunger knock and completely blew up. He couldn't even try to respond when Thomas went and when Stybar just expected Sagan to pick it up, but didn't, he lost his chance in the race too. Tinkoff-Saxo look to be a rudderless mess at the moment though and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sagan out of the placings tomorrow again. On the other hand though, the pressure on him must be immense and he simply has to start delivering results soon. Maybe it's the four million euros is weighing him down or something..

Sep Vanmarcke is an interesting candidate, more suited to the big battles to come in the Ronde and Paris-Roubaix in the coming weeks, I'm sure he'll be looking after himself to make sure he doesn't go the way of Cancellara and Boonen.. Easier said than done when something happens in the peloton in front of you though! Fourth last year, 2nd in 2010 when part of a breakaway, he has the power to be right up there in the top ten again but a win is going to be hard against sprinters of this calibre. 

André Greipel struggled in Milan San Remo, more so than he did last year. He crashed out of GW last year with a broken collarbone but he did finish 4th in 2011 in a sprint behind Boonen. I'm not that keen on his chances for tomorrow though, especially given the weather forecast - the 16/1 doesn't appeal to me. 

Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni are carrying the French hopes, with Démare at least having some recent form, taking second last year. Bouhanni hasn't ridden this race yet, but to he honest I can't see either of them winning it based on their results so far this year. Team Sky are flying at the moment, with wins this week for Thomas and Swift and a likely win for Porte in Catalunya, and Viviani could be an outside shout for a podium spot here. But his recent form has been pretty worrying, he DNF'ed the Omloop and Strade Bianche, but in between took 3rd in KBK. He didn't finish Tirreno and he didn't finish the E3 Friday either! I think we'll see another DNF tomorrow!

Zdenek Stybar and Geraint Thomas could do something similar to in the E3 on Friday, they are two of the strongest guys in the peloton right now and will be eager to split things up in the cross-winds before the finish. I think they will try something but I'm not sure they will stay away this time. As brilliant as Thomas's win was on Friday, it was definitely helped by the Van Avermaet crash as it took the impetus out of the chase, just as they were starting to be reeled in. 

After that? Sam Bennett is too big at 66/1, he could be involved in the sprint finish, he was going well in San Remo before just running out of gas on the Cipressa. Matteo Trentin could be involved in the finish again but I'm not interested in him at just 40/1. If Sagan isn't in top form, his team-mate Matti Breschel certainly is at the moment and it might be that he finishes better than Sagan tomorrow. 

I think though that we will get a re-run of last year's race - a break gets reeled in just in time to set up a sprint finish and Degenkolb will take it from Kristoff. Who is behind those two is anyone's guess, but I'm avoinding Cavendish, Demare, Bouhanni and Viviani. That means the likes of Bennett could sneak on to the podium at a big 66/1, Vanmarcke is capable of a top 5, maybe even a top 3 placing.  

Recommendations:

John Degenkolb - 2pts each-way at 9/1 with PP

Sam Bennett - 0.5pts each-way at 66/1 with Bet365 

Match Bets:

André Greipel to beat Mark Cavendish - 1.5pts at 15/8 with PP

Danny Van Poppel to beat Elia Viviani - 1.5pts at 7/4 with PP

Kristoff to beat Sagan (2/5), Stybar to beat Thomas (4/9), Degenkolb to beat Vanmarcke (2/5) - 2pts on the treble pays 15/8 with PP