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- Published on Sunday, 22 March 2015 01:33
Volta a Catalunya 2015
Monday March 23rd to Sunday March 29th
After the eagerly awaited battle between Contador, Froome, Nibali and Quintana failed to materialise at the Tirreno-Adriatico, the Volta a Catalunya takes on an added importance in shaping the seasons of some of the big GC riders. Froome didn't start because of a chest infection, Quintana put them all in their place with a superb attack on the Queen stage to Termanillo, Contador lacked the power to go with him and Nibali just wasn't fit enough to be a challenger.
Froome and Contador square up again at the Volta, but you can add in the considerable challenges of Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Tejay Van Garderen, Rigoberto Uran, Richie Porte, Fabio Aru, Rafal Majka and Romain Bardet to what should be a superb battle in Catalunya.
The race never disappoints and is full of interesting and challenging stages, with plenty of hills to test the riders. No time trial or prologue, it's all going to be about climbing ability and the ability to score bonus seconds wherever possible. There's only one summit finish though so expect there to be furious attacking racing on some of the other stages from those that don't fancy their chances on the summit finish at La Molina.
Last year's race was won by Joaquim Rodriguez in a very close run contest with Contador - only 4" separated them at the finish after he skipped away on the climb to La Molina, it could be the decisive point in the race again this year. In fact there were only 10" between Rodriguez and 5th place man Nairo Quintana. Rodriguez has won the race twice and finished second once, Daniel Martin has won once and finished second twice. Miguel Indurain holds the record for the most wins with 3, Rodriguez won't get the chance to go for the joint record as he has had to pull out due to illness.
Froome comes here after missing Tirreno-Adriatico so it'll be interesting to see how he copes with the lack of racing miles in his legs compared to the likes of Contador and Uran. He has excellent support in Richie Porte, who showed in Paris-Nice that he is in great shape and could possibly take over leadership if Froome isn't 100%. Contador wasn't 100% in Tirreno either though, not being able to stay with Quintana when he went or shake off the rest of the leaders on the way to the finish at Termanillo, so it will be interesting to see how he copes here.
Rigo Uran was in good form in Tirreno too, but like Contador, was no match for Quintana. Van Garderen suffered in the cold on the stage to Nice because he didn't dress adequately, an appalling lack of professionalism that riled his DS greatly. He lost nearly five minutes that day and his race was a disaster. Expect him to be going all out to make amends here. Rafal Majka and Fabio Aru were also disappointing in Paris-Nice, they will need to show some better form here too. It's all set up nicely to be a battle in the hills of Catalunya and it should be a quality week's racing.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Rodriguez | Katusha | 29h 41min 34s |
| 2 | Alberto Contador | Tinkoff-Saxo | at 04s |
| 3 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC | at 07s |
The Route
The race starts with a bang with a Cat 1 climb on the very first stage but it's likely that it will end in a bunch, or a reduced bunch finish. Stage 2 could also finish in a reduced bunch sprint, but the Cat 3 climb just before the finish in Olot could see some puncheurs and climbers spring away before the finish. Stage 3 around Girona should be an exciting stage with five categorised climbs, including two Cat 1 climbs, and we could see the first separation of the GC contenders from the rest of the pack with the Cat 1 climb of the Alt Dels Àngels coming just 17kms from the finish.
Stage 4 has the only summit finish of the race and it could be the decisive one for the GC. It's 6kms at 5.8%, so expect to see Froome, Contador and co. go head to head for what could be the race deciding move. Stage 5 is almost all downhill, they drop 1000m from the start to the finish, but the Cat 2 climb just before the finish could thin it out to be a reduced bunch sprint won by a punchy sprinter. Stage 6 has a Cat 1 climb but it's too early in the stage to cause too many problems, it's likely to just finish in a bunch sprint in Port Aventura. The final stage in Barcelona is always exciting with the eight ascensions of the Montjuic. It is possible we see a breakaway winner, but if the race is close at the top it could be a cracking finish to the stage and the week.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Calella to Calella
Monday, March 23rd, 185.2kms
The race starts with its customary stage in Calella. They first head south on a little loop that takes them over a small, uncategorised climb at Mataro and they pass back through Calella after 50kms, where they now turn left and head north-west out in to the countryside and in to the hills. After 80kms they start up the double ascension of the Coll del Ravell and the Alt de Viladrau, a 2nd Cat climb that tops out at 900m.
They descend for around 20kms before starting up the Alt de Coll Formic, a tough Cat 1 climb - a nice, hard introduction to the week's racing! It's nearly 8kms long at an average of around 5%, so we should see a shakeout of the sprinters and weaker riders if the GC men and their teams decide to push things early on. This is followed by a tricky, twisty, 25kms descent and then a final little test of the Cat 3 Alt de Collsacreu, a chance for a late attack from the puncheurs as there's just 16kms to go, 10km of which are a descent.
We should see a shakeout of the non-climbing sprinters, and we could see a late attack group or solo rider go on the Collsacreu but the most likely scenario is a reduced bunch sprint that is won by a sprinter that can hang in there on the climbs, someone like Mezgec who took the victory last year.
Mezgec hasn't been in great form of late though, in Tirreno he was way off the pace, although he did take a stage victory in the Haut Var a month ago, albeit against a pretty weak sprint. At 6/1 he's quite short for me given how poor he was in Tirreno.
Bryan Coquard is the favourite for the stage, with prices ranging from 5/2 to 9/2, a big difference if you want to back him. He has been in good form, taking a 3rd and a 2nd in Paris-Nice, very unlucky to lose to Cimolai in stage 5 and also took a stage victory in the Etoile de Besseges earlier in the year. 
He is capable of staying in the pack over the Cat 1 climb you'd think, it's only a 5% gradient after all. On the stage 5 in Paris Nice there were two cat 3s and a Cat 2 to get over in the last 65kms and it finished with a tough pull uphill to the line where he outsprinted Matthews and Bouhanni. He has Rolland, Quemeneur, Sicard, Cousin and Gaultier to look after him and I think with Europcar desperate for results, they will be going all out for the win.
Matteo Pelucchi is 3rd favourite, ranging between 10/1 and 6/1 and he had a good start to the year but has gone off the boil a little bit lately. He was not feeling good going in to Tirreno-Adriatico with fever and intestinal problems, and then crashed out in stage 2 (right). He tweeted four days ago that he had his first ride since the crash and 'the feeling is good', but I won't be backing him tomorrow until I see for myself that he is good!
Caleb Ewan has been in brilliant form in Asia, taking two stages, two 2nds and a 3rd place finish in the Tour de Lankawi, but this is a different league altogether compared to the standard there. He ranges from 4/1 to 14/1 and I am reluctant to back him just yet until I see how he is riding after coming across from Asia. Stuyven has a chance, Dylan Theuns, Rojas and Van Staeyen, but in the off chance that there could be a break make it, Thomas de Gendt is in good form, nearly landing a 100/1 bet for me in Tirreno, just being caught 200m from the line on the stage 5 won by Cimolai. At 55/1 with William Hill he might be worth a little bet.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Bryan Coquard at 9/2 with Paddy Power
0.3pts each-way on Thomas de Gendt at 55/1 with William Hill
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Stage 2
Stage 2 - Mataro to Olot
Tuesday March 24th, 191.8km
Glad I didn't go in big on Stage 1, what an absolute disaster for punters that was! The break of Paterski, Rolland and De Celrcq built up a lead of over 13 mins at one point, with the peloton seemingly asleep on their bikes. They woke up with about 35kms to go, but it was too late, they hung on to win by 2.41" and may well have put the race out of reach already. I reckon they were all 250/1 or bigger to win today and I know one shrewdie out there is on Rolland at 250/1 for the GC so it was a bookie bonanza today as all stage bets went down and the GC bets are hanging on by a thread.
Dan Martin showed that he is up for it though, sprinting for a bonus second behind Poels and Roche at the first intermediate sprint. It was very close too with my De Gendt bet at 55/1, he got in an early break that got a small gap but was reeled in.. then his team-mate De Clercq had a go and that one stuck.. if De Gendt had got away he'd have podiumed and probably would have won.. But fair play to Paterski though, over 500km ridden in two days, finishing 22nd in MSR and then travelling down to Catalunya and winning today. Powerful stuff.
The latest prices came out tonight and Rolland is now the 9/5 favourite for the GC with PP, as short as 6/5 with Boylesports. Bart de Clercq is 6/1 and then the original favourites feature - Valverde is now 8/1 with Bet365 but as short as 4/1 with Paddy Power - they are not taking any chances. Froome is 9/1, Contador is 11/1 and Porte is 16/1, the same price he was before the start, Uran is 22/1. If you didn't get a chance to back Valverde before the race started, he now offers a touch of value, it's a lot to make up but if I thought he was going to win before, he should be able to overhaul Paterski and de Clercq in the climbs, so could well still make the podium.. And if Rolland cracks badly, he could well still win the race overall. I'm having another 1/2 a point each-way at 8/1..
Stage 2 starts down along the coast in Mataro, the town they passed through on Stage 1, and they go out on a little loop before heading up and over a little 3rd Cat climb of the Alt de Can Bordoi. From there the road descends as they head north-east towards Vidreres, where the road starts to rise again. They then turn left and head north and in to the Volcanic Zone of the Garrotxa where they climb to a height of 500m at Santa Pau, the heighest point of the day, but there's no KOM points on offer there.
They pass on the south edge of Olot and go off on a seventy kilometre loop to the east where they first descend for around 20kms before the tricky run in to the finish back up in Olot. First up they tackle the Cat 3 climb of the Alt de Montagut, which is 2.1kms long at an average of 4.5%, with parts hitting 7%. Almost as soon as they are over that though they tackle the hill up to Olot again, an uncategorised climb of 4.8kms at an average of 4.2%. From the top of the climb there are less than 6kms to go, so a strong breakaway rider could make it.
It's going to be a tough stage to read as a break could make it, the GC men could try to break it up and fight it out, or a puncheur could get away on the final climbs. I think though, after what happened today, there will be little chance of a break succeeding, lots of teams will be getting a bollicking tonight from their DSs.....
It's another puzzler tomorrow, especially as today's stage didn't really tell us a great deal about the likes of Coquard, who finished 5th in the sprint today behind Van der Sande, Alaphilippe, Tiralongo and Gasparotto, but Caleb Ewan finished 18 mins down so I'm glad I steered clear of him. Bet365 have made Coquard their 5/1 favourite again for tomorrow but I think I'll leave that price after that sprint today.. ok, maybe he didn't want to go all out for just 4th place, but some of the other guys in front of him could go well tomorrow too.
Julian Alaphilippe is a rider I like a lot and I wasn't sure how he was going to go today, as he hasn't had a great start to the season, not finishing two out of his first four races and being almost anonymous in Paris-Nice. He did sprint very well today though, taking 2nd place behind TVDS. I think this sort of finish will suit him and if he can repeat that sort of sprint at the finish he could make a top 3 again. He got a good lead-out from Petr Vakoc and led the sprint until the last 20m.. if E-QS can have a few men for him there at the finish tomorrow he could finish it off this time. He was 11/1 with Bet365, I waited, he was cut to 9s, then 8s.. Then PP opened at 11/1 too so I took a point each-way on that.
Van der Sande sprinted well too today, but I'm not sure he'll be at the front at the finish tomorrow. Two of the old boys - Tiralongo and Gasparotto sprinted well today but may find it a bit tough on that final climb tomorrow too. Valverde could sprint to a good placing if Movistar make it hard enough on the final climb to get rid of a lot of the competition, especially now as they need bonus seconds more than ever, but I think he'll find a few too good for him.
It's been a crazy start to the race and tomorrow's stage could see anything happen again, so I'm keeping it to just one bet and a few Matchbets for an interest..
Recommendations:
Julian Alaphilippe - 1pt each-way at 11/1 with Paddy Power
Matchbets
Alaphilippe to beat Rojas - 1.5pts at 8/11 with 365
Dan Martin to beat Uran - 1pt at 5/4 with 365
Gasparotto to beat Reza - 1.2pts at 4/6
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Stage 3
Stage 3 - Girona to Girona
Wednesday March 25th, 156.6kms
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then three of those words must be "fuck you Piti" judging by the look on JJ Rojas' face.. The Movistar nearly-man sacrificed a victory for his team captain in today's stage to Olat. The victory to me sent out a huge warning to the three guys above him and Froome and Contador below him.. Valverde is flying and is hungry. That's 10" pulled back rather unexpectedly today, he's on the chase.. I also think that Valverde better go and win it now for Rojas's sake or he'll be doubly pissed with him!
It was another crazy day with bad weather meaning there was almost no coverage whatsoever. The break of four were never given much rope and never had a chance of staying away. On the final climb to Olat though the pace was hard enough to drop the likes of Coquard, Reza, Henderson and a few more who were supported for today's stage. It was also hard enough to take the sting out the legs of the remaining sprinters, with Alaphilippe, Mezgec and Van Der Sande all finishing down the field.
Valverde is in to 7/2 again from the 8/1 I recommended backing him at last night, Rolland is still the 7/4 favourite. With the news breaking today though that Bjarne Riis is suspended/fired/relieved of his duties or whatever from Saxo, I think it will have a big impact on Contador. Riis was a real father figure to Contador and was hugely important to him, it could hit him hard this week and it may scupper his chances of winning.
On to stage 3 then. Girona is regularly visited by the Volta, and a number of riders who have their homes in the area look forward to racing on their training roads. The course is a rather complicated loop in a figure of eight sort of shape, that takes them over 5 hills over the course of 159.6kms. They do two Cat 3 climbs in the first 60kms, neither of which are very long or difficult and shouldn't cause too many problems. After 75kms though they start on the first passage of the Cat 1 climb, the Alt dels Àngels, a 6kms drag at an average of 5%, with a max of 8%.
When they crest it for the first time there are still 74kms left in the stage, as they go off on another, smaller loop to the south of the climb. Along the way they encounter the 2nd Cat climb of the Alt de Santa Pellaia, 5.9kms at 4% average which tops out with 36kms to go. A quick descent down to Sant Sadurni De L'Heura, before they start on a second ascent of the Alt Dels Àngels with just 17kms to go. Once over the top they have a 9km descent and then there are just 2kms on the flat in the run to the finish. The last time they had a finish like this in Girona in 2012, Michael Albasini won the sprint from Cataldo, Uran and a whole bunch of climbers. We could see a similar sort of finish here.
I'm going to keep it brief here, I've still got to do Dwars door Vlaanderen tonight too! Alejandro Valverde is the 7/4 favourite and I think he will take a lot of stopping now he's in the groove. It looks like Movistar are fired up for this as a team and I think they will tear it up on the Alt de Santa Pellaia with 36kms to go and again on the Alt dels Angels to get rid of the last of the sprinters. It should then be set up for Valverde to win the sprint again.
After that it's a lottery. Dan Martin looks a decent enough price at 40/1 with Paddy Power, he lives in Girona and knows the roads well so he could be up for it tomorrow. He also has a decent sprint on him from a reduced group so he could get involved in the finish. He is only 13/1 with Bet365, which is a bit short, I would have him about 20/1, so 40s is a bit of value. Wilco Kelderman was well up in the sprint today too, finishing in 5th place, he could be up there again tomorrow at 15/1. For breaks that could possibly make it, look to the likes of Thomas de Gendt again at 33/1 or someone like Jerome Coppel at 200/1 or Amets Txurruka at 100/1.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 7/4 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts each-way on Daniel Martin at 40/1 with Paddy Power
0.1pt each-way on Jerome Coppel at 200/1 with Paddy Power
MatchBets
Alberto Contador to beat Chris Froome - 1.5pts at evens (Contador tends to finish higher up in groups than Froome)
Valverde to beat Kelderman, Martin to beat Tiralongo, Rojas to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 6/4 on the treble with Bet365
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Stage 4
Stage 4 - Tona to La Molina
Thursday March 26th, 188.4kms
So close, yet so far today with Dan Martin.. On paper the result says third place, but the truth is Gardale cocked up what should have been their first win of the season. Talansky should have gone after Pozzovivo when he attacked instead of looking around for someone else to do it, when he did get chasing, it was too late.
The stage was a disaster for Valverde as he crashed at a time when the pace was really cranking up on penultimate climb. He chased hard with Rojas, and just got on the coat-tails of the lead group at the summit, but another crash on the descent caused a split in front of him and he never regained contact. It was very unlucky for him as he probably would have won from that group.. But then again, knowing Valverde he would have waited for someone else to chase pozzo so the result would have probably been the same.
Richie Porte, Uran, Contador and Aru are looking frisky, Froome not so, he struggled today on the final climb and was dropped, he did well in the end to only lose 22". He now sits in 28th place, 2'46" behind Rolland. It was an even worse day for Tejay Van Garderen who crashed over a guard rail with about 35kms to go and lost over 16" to finish his race.
Rolland didn't lose much time today, and is now in to 5/6 best price to take the overall, Contador ranges from 7/1 to 7/2 second favourite and Valverde is back out to 8/1 again! Porte, Uran and Pozzovivo are all 16/1 or so, it looks like it's between these five guys.
A tough day in the saddle today with three Cat 1 climbs and an Especiale, or Haute Category climb along the way.. It looks like it should start relatively calmly with a flat 50kms lead in to the first climb of the day, but it's likely that it's going to be fast and furious as riders try to get in the break of the day ahead of the hills to come.
Suddenly they hit a Cat 1 climb! The Alt de Bracons is 10.5kms long at an average of 4.9% and hits a max of 12%, so we should see the first selection made and possibly the break, if strong enough, extend their lead. A very fast and tricky descent is followed by about 20kms of almost flat roads before they start on the next Cat 1, the Alt de Coubet. At 5.5% average over 10kms it is a bit harder than the Bracons, and they crest the top with 90kms gone, so they are almost half way.
25kms later they start on the Especiale climb, the Alt de La Creueta. The climb is the longest of the race at 21kms, with an average of 4.5%, but that is a bit deceptive as there are parts that are not so steep and even a little bit that descends. At the 18km point of the climb it rises to 9%, and the last kilometre is pretty hard too at 8.3% average. After a little plateau at the top they nearly reach the finishing town of La Molina, but instead they start on a 30km descent that takes them out to the north-west of the town before they turn around and start on the pull to the finish with 12kms to go. They climb for about 5kms before they start the final climb proper to the finish in La Molina. It's another Cat 1 climb, 6kms long at an average of 5.8%, with parts hitting over 9%.
It's a tough finish that last year saw Movistar push it hard for Nairo Quintana until about 3kms to go, then Fuglsang attacked with 2km to go and got a decent gap, but was chased down by Dani Moreno with 1km to go. Chris Froome attacked with about 800m to go but didn't get away, then Rodriguez attacked and no one could go after him. He beat Contador by 4", a margin that sealed him the overall victory in the race.
He won't be here to defend his title though as he has taken ill this weekend and is out of the race.. I don't think he'd have been capable of winning anyway if he has taken part!
So do we give Valverde another chance tomorrow?? He is the 5/2 favourite with Ladbrokes (as short as 7/4 with Bet365) to take the stage and for sure it's a stage finish that suits his style. He will be raging after today's disappointment, raging that he crashed yet again in this race and raging that Tinkoff-Saxo and co pushed on as hard as they did when he went down (but that's racing Ale..). He still has a small chance of winning the race (about 12% according to his price). He almost single handedly pulled the chase group up the Angels today, he looked very strong all the way to the finish. It's hard to know how much it took out of him but he looked very impressive on the climb. If it has not exhausted him too much, he looks to be one of the best climbers in the race and could well skip away from the rest in the last few kilometres.
It's going to be an interesting day though from a GC point of view - the final climb is not hard enough to really put a lot of time in to the likes of Rolland, so it looks like they will have to go eyeballs-out from about 65kms out on the Especiale climb to put the hurt on him early on. If they can put a 60-90 seconds or so in to him on the climb summit, then hold it on the descent, it's up for grabs on the final climb then.
Pozzovivo heads the key challengers behind at 2'14" and he rode a canny, smart race today to snatch the victory. He looked very comfortable on the climbs today and he'll be a big danger at the finish again. Normally a rider who prefers it steeper and more explosive, he showed today that in that slight gradient to the finish that he has the power to sprint away at a finish like this also. It's unlikely he will be allowed to get away though for a second day, so the 22/1 is tempting, but not for me.
Alberto Contador had his team put the hurt on today to blow things apart and I think they will do the same tomorrow on the Alt de La Creueta HC climb. He didn't seem to be at his absolute best today though to me, his attacks were a little bit like in Tirreno, defiant but lacking in real power. Last year when Rodriguez went for it, Contador couldn't respond and I think it could be the same tomorrow so the 11/4 on him doesn't appeal too much to me (and definitely not the 6/4 worst price he is.. )
Richie Porte rode very well today again and has carried his good Paris-Nice form in to this race. When he put in a little dig today he had them all on the limit and Contador was only just able to hold his wheel. I think tomorrow's stage finish suits him quite well, it's similar to the climb of the Croix de Chaubouret in PN, a 5% average gradient is what he likes. I think he could put in a dig tomorrow with a few kilometres to go and could get away. I think he has a solid chance of a top 3 finish, there's not a lot of value in him at 6/1 but it gives us a stab at the each-way. Rigoberto Uran is also still looking very well and is sure to like this finish too, I'm hoping he goes well tomorrow and get on to the GC podium for my 18/1 bet! He could be well up there tomorrow too and the 12/1 with Ladbrokes appeals a little.
Dan Martin seemed to be below the level of the top climbers today, he struggled as soon as the accelerations of Contador came with about 16kms to go, so for that reason I'm going to avoid him tomorrow with a finish like this. Fabio Aru also seemed to be under pressure quite a lot today so I'm going to leave him too, he might struggle towards the finish when the attacks come. Another who really struggled today was Chris Froome, he clearly is still under the weather, and even the huge looking price of 18/1 doesn't appeal to me.
One rider that impressed me today though was Jurgen Van den Broeck - with 17km to go he was pulling really hard at the front with Valverde, he seems to be going well. Unfortunately he too was caught out behind the splits. In nearly every shot of the chasing pack he was in the first 3 or 4 and even at the finish he was sprinting in the chasing group to finish 11th in the chasing group. He has the freedom to do what he wants it seems and not wait for De Clercq, and at 150/1 he is worth a shot. If he goes for it, either solo or with a few other outsiders with 3kms or so to go the favourites might just look around too much and he could be gone.
Rafael Valls and Diego Rosa rode well today too and they could be in the mix at the finish tomorrow too at prices around 66/1. Last year, Tejay Van Garderen finished 4th on the stage but he crashed over a barrier today and lost all chance in the GC battle. He may be out for some redemption tomorrow, things haven't been going his way lately. The 80/1 on him might find some backers, but I think 5th to 10th for him. 7th and 8th last year were Wilco Kelderman and Andrew Talansky and I think they will finish in similar positions tomorrow. The video of last year's stage is below the recommendations...
It's hard to know how some of the other climbers could have gone today when the pace kicked up on the final climb, the splits denied us the opportunity to see how they could have done. The likes of Giampaolo Caruso, Esteban Chaves, Ruben Fernandez, Jarlinson Pantano and so on could show something tomorrow, but I'm leaning towards the same sort of riders fighting out the finish tomorrow, but with Valverde involved this time. I think he will gain revenge for today and win the stage, from Porte and Uran with Contador, Van den Broeck and Pozzovivo also in the mix.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 5/2 with Betfair
1pt each-way on Richie Porte at 6/1 with Paddy Power
0.2pts each-way on Jurgen Van den Broeck at 150/1 with Coral
0.1pt each-way on Jarlinson Pantano at 300/1 with Coral
Matchbets:
Pantano to beat Losada - 2pts at 8/11
Talansky to beat Froome + Van den Broeck to beat Rolland - 2.5pts on the double at 11/10 with Bet365
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Stage 5
Stage 5 - Alp to Valls
Friday March 27th, 195.4km
Pretty close again today, Richie Porte left it too late to do exactly what I thought he would do and sprint away from the remnants of the peloton. Unfortunately Tejay Van Garderen had flown the nest already and Porte couldn't catch him. It was an excellent ride by Tejay to defy his extraordinary 80/1 odds, he obviously wasn't too impaired by his trip over the barriers on the previous stage. Contador was exactly as I thought he would be too, a weak attack that wasn't able to really do much damage, but he stayed on well to take third from an increasingly impressive Dan Martin. Behind, Pozzovivo and Valverde struggled to go with the leaders, and my 300/1 man Pantano wasn't far off the pace at all finishing in 12th place, just 24" down! He did land the match-bet easily though as did the match-bet double so it was a profitable day again, +2.5pts.
Bart de Clercq rode brilliantly today to take the leader's jersey off of Rolland who capitulated, he now leads by 21" from Porte. With three stages to go Porte is now the 6/4 favourite to take the overall from de Clercq who is 9/4 best price, as low as 7/4. Hopefully Porte can overhaul him and land the 16/1 GC bet. Dan Martin is the 6/1 3rd favourite now, from 12/1 Contador and Pozzovivo. All to play for then still with time bonuses going to be crucial over the last three stages.
A short hop to the start of Stage 5 in Alp, for a long, fast stage down to Valls near to the coast. They basically, descend for the first 80kms, so it is certain to be a fast and furious start. After a little bump at Oliana, the road flattens out for the next 50kms or so. At Tarrega they start a long climb up to Belltall, a climb that although it's nearly 20kms in length is uncategorised. Another fast descent for around 20kms and they face what could be the race deciding moment, the climb of the Alt de Lilla. The climb is 4.1kms long at an average of 4.8%, maxing out at 7%, but the summit comes with just 5.5kms to go so a lone attacker or small group could get away on the climb and stay away to the finish.
Last year Luca Mezgec took one of his two stage victories in Valls and the year before Simon Gerrans won from Gianni Meersman from a group of 17 that included all the GC favourites. Mezgec is the favourite this year to repeat his victory from 12 months ago, but we haven't really seen anything from him in this race yet. It looks like he hasn't got over his illness fully yet - he really struggled today and came home in the grupetto, 27 minutes down. I have no interest in backing him at just 5/1.
To be honest, this is an impossible stage to pick a winner from. Porte and Dan Martin may want to try to attack on the final climb to try to distance de Clercq but the last two years that this race has finished in Valls with the same run-in, it has both times finished in a bunch sprint. It could be a day for the attackers, plenty of guys took it easy today and rolled in almost a half hour behind the leaders, so there are going to be plenty of guys looking to get in the break tomorrow. It could be a long time before the break of the day goes. If it's strong enough, they could make it all the way if the GC guys decide to just do battle on the final climb. But with only a handful of seconds separating the top 5 I think they will do what they can to reel in the break to try to snag the bonus seconds on offer at the finish. An interesting point to note is that the first intermediate sprint comes after less than 40kms so the GC men's teams might keep it together until then to try to tee up Porte or Martin for a shot at the bonus seconds.
Any one of about 50 guys could make it in to the break when it eventually goes, maybe after the sprint, and it's impossible to name some really.. I still think it will come down to a bunch sprint so I'm going to have a small go at a few for that. Valverde is second favourite, based on his sprint in stage 2 I guess, but also that he could be part of a small group that splits in on the final climb, he would then be a hot favourite to win the sprint out of that group. I can't be backing him again though, he's cost me enough this week!
Julian Alaphilippe has cost me money too this week, but I think I'll give him another go. E-QS have probably lost hope of a podium spot now for Uran, so we could see Uran looking to blow it up on the Lilla with Alaphilippe on his wheel, in an effort to distance the likes of Coquard before the sprint. If they can get him to the finish he will be a real danger - I think there is a good chance that Coquard won't make it to the sprint, and with Mezgec off colour and not a lot of other sprinters left in the race it looks like a perfect opportunity for Julian to go one place better than his 2nd place behind Mezgec last year. There is even the possibility that he goes in the early break that makes it..
Dan Martin could jump away before the top of the Lilla, he seems to be getting stronger as the days go by, even trying a little attack today and still staying on to take 4th even though he looked cooked at one point. He could also sprint from a small group.. We have seen nothing of Sammy Sanchez in this race so far, he finished even later than the grupetto today, over 30 minutes down. He has gone well in this race in the past, winning a stage and finishing second overall in 2012. With Tejay out of the race and the pressure off of BMC after his great victory today, we could see Sammy Sanchez try his trademark attack down that descent to the finish. It's a longshot with a guy who hasn't won in a long time, but you'd never know, he needs to start repaying some of BMCs faith in him pretty soon!
Recommendations
2pts win on Julian Alaphilippe at 6/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Sammy Sanchez at 40/1 with Bet365
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Stage 6
Stage 6 - Cervera to Port Aventura
Saturday March 28th, 197.7kms
Is there anything more annoying than watching the rider you backed for two days in a row ride away to victory on the day you didn't back him? Bloody Valverde... I guess the silver lining is that he is back in the running for the victory now, or at the least an each-way placing as he sits just 9" behind Contador who is now 3rd. Even better is that our 16/1 poke Richie Porte is doing the business once again and now leads by 5" from Pozzovivo and 7" from Contador with two stages left. The GC would seem to be wide open still but Porte does look in great form and should be capable of nullifying Valverde you'd think, like Dan Martin two years ago with Purito.
Still, it's very possible that we see Valverde fly off the front again tomorrow and put it up to the three above him to chase him down. He could also try to steal bonus seconds, so it's up to AG2R, Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky to put some men in the break of the day to hoover them up. It may even be that if they all get men in the break then they won't need to chase and it'll be up to Movistar and the others to do the chasing.. That could mean the break could stay away.. No return from the bets today as it turned out to be a lot harder a stage than it looked like it might be, but that was made up for by a great victory for Geraint Thomas in the E3, landing the 14/1 e/w bet to record an overall profit of 7.3pts.
This is the longest stage of the race at 197.7kms and another tough day in store with a lumpy route that takes in a Cat 1 climb and a Cat 3 climb that comes just 34kms from the finish. Along the way they tackle the Alt de Prades, a familiar climb in the Volta, a Cat 1 climb that rises to 950m in height, averaging 4% over 11kms, so it's reasonably long, but not too steep, and too far out to make a difference to the day's outcome probably.
A 35kms descent is followed by rolling terrain for 30kms and then they hit the Alt del Coll Roig, which tops out with 34kms to go. It's only 3.7kms long at an average of 5%, but it's unlikely to prevent it from being a bunch sprint or maybe a slightly reduced group if some of the sprinters feel the pinch.
The first intermediate sprint comes after just 20kms so it should be fast and furious until then as I think we could see the GC men going for it again like today - I would't be surprised to see Sky send Koenig, Kiryienka, Poels or Roche on the attack to try to hoover up the bonus seconds to protect Porte's lead. After that the break will probably go, ahead of the Cat 1 Alt de Prades. I don't really see any of the GC favourites trying anything here, it's over 100kms from the finish at the summit. There's a 35kms descent and then around 30kms of flattish roads so it should be set up for a battle on the final climb of the Alt del Coll Roig. It's only 3.7kms at 5%, and in other circumstances a perfect Richie Porte sort of climb, but I think he'll be playing the defensive game tomorrow.
After a day which was largely affected by cross-winds, tomorrow should be a lot calmer with sunshine and quite warm temperatures, a far cry from the snow on La Molina.
So we are back to trying to guess what's going to happen again tomorrow... Sprint or break? It really could be either. Coquard is favourite again, I can't trust him to win it at just 7/2 or so. Luca Mezgec I have been saying has not looked too hot, so again, not interested in backing him at 6/1. Alejandro Valverde on the other hand is looking really, really strong and showed on stage 2 that he actually is one of the better sprinters here. With that kick up just 30kms from the finish I think Movistar will really push it hard in an attempt to split things up and get rid of some of the sprinters - with a possible cross-head wind, it could happen. Again, if Valverde comes to the finish with a small group, he'll probably win. And he has far more motivation to win this than any of the sprinters, the 10" bonus will lift him up to 3rd place with a real chance of winning the overall with 1 stage to go.
Julian Alaphilippe could get involved, but do I back him again or do I leave him and risk a 'Valverde' and see him win the stage?! The 9/1 is just about tempting to have a saver, just in case! I don't think Rojas will have a chance of winning as Valverde needs the seconds. Jonathan Hivert and Tosh Van der Sande could get involved if it comes to a straight-forward sprint, Van der Sande in particular interests me - winner of the sprint for 4th behind the Rolland group on stage 1, he also took 2nd place in a stage of the Driedaagse a few weeks back. With de Clercq out of the running now all focus of the team should come back to trying to win the stage with Van der Sande. At 22/1 with BetVictor or 20/1 with Skybet he is worth an e/w bet.
As for the break, we could see the likes of Paolo Tiralongo give it a go tomorrow, he looked strong today sprinting for 3rd place. He might try to get up the road tomorrow, but if not he could be involved in the sprint at the end too at a tasty 66/1. I think I'll leave it at that, impossible to pick who else could be in the break and it is a small chance that it'll stay to the finish anyway.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Julian Alaphilippe at 9/1 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Tosh Van der Sande at 22/1 with BetVictor
0.3pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 66/1 with PP
1pt win on Alejandro Valverde at 5/1 with PP
Matchbets
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Stage 7
Stage 7 - Llobregat
Sunday March 29th, 123.5km
Another one 'off the crossbar' with Alaphilippe managing to lose the race from a very winnable situation. I didn't see the stage but I think I'm glad I didn't because judging by the feedback I got tonight on how he managed to blow it I think I'd have been screaming all sorts of obscenities at him at the finish today. So it all comes down to the final stage in Barcelona with four quality riders within 20" of Porte. I can't see Sky or Porte blowing it now though, they should control the peloton again tomorrow and he should win it, or at the very least, hold on to a top 3 place.
The traditional finish in Barcelona is usually an exciting finish to the race, with the 8 laps of the finishing circuit in Barcelona, climbing the Alt de Montjuic eight times. Last year Lieuwe Westra put in a brilliant performance in the rain to solo to victory with a 1'22" margin over his former breakaway companions. In 2013 Thomas de Gendt took a great victory from a break of four that included Scarponi, Kiserlovski and Lopez. Dan Martin just marked Joaquim Rodriguez on the final laps to secure his victory in the overall by 17".
It's often won by breakaways so there will be plenty keen to get away early on this stage, although in 2012 Julien Simon won a bunch sprint.
I was curious to see how the bookies were going to price this up, whether they thought a break might stay away or whether it would be a GC battle at the finish. Well they have priced it up as a GC battle, with Valverde the very short 5/2 favourite, followed by Dan Martin and Rigo Uran at 12/1. Jonathan Hivert pops up next at 20/1 and then Contador again from the GC favourites. With the GC battle the way it is and with weather conditions forecast to be far better than last year, it does look more likely to come down to a GC battle with Valverde doing all he can to snatch the overall victory from Porte.
If Valverde wins the stage though he can move on to a podium spot so he will be going all out for the victory tomorrow. Movistar didn't do much today to pull back the break, so it looks like he is gambling on the final stage to try to just secure a podium spot at the very worst. He will need to take bonus seconds, or get a time gap, in order to win the overall and that's not going to be very easy with Porte and Uran and co against him. I think he is very capable of winning tomorrow and I can't see Contador finishing in the first 3 so the podium is certainly within reach.
With a bonus seconds sprint after just 30kms we might see E-QS and Movistar look to keep it together until then to give Uran and Valverde a shot at the bonus seconds, but we could see Sky trying to send someone up the road or sprint against Valverde in order to stop him getting seconds. After that all hell could break loose with breaks trying to get away, this is traditionally a big stage for the breakaway!
At just 123kms though, it's a very short stage for pro racers so the pace is going to be fast and furious. They start the finishing circuit with just 75kms long and they start on the first of the eight ascensions up the Alt de Montjuic.
Movistar will work hard to bring the break within reach for the final few laps and you'd have to expect attacks from Valverde on the final ascension of the Montjuic. Once at the top it's just a short charge down to the finish and as we saw in his adacious attack on stage 5 that is no problem to him to hold off the chasers.. WIth so much riding on the win for him he is a strong favourite, but 5/2 is quite short.
Uran has come close on three occassions recently, winning the group sprints behind the stage winners on three occassions. He has a deceptively good sprint on him and he should be able to stay with Valverde on the final time up the Montjuic, he could be his closest challenger in the sprint if there is a small group of GC favourites come to the finish together. Dan Martin could well try an attack on the final climb but it's unlikely Valverde will let him go. He does have a decent kick on him at the finish though so he could well take a podium spot. He is out of the running now though in the GC after a bit of wind trouble on stage 5 so it is all about a stage win now for him. If he does attack on the Montjuic, there may be a pause as Valverde and Uran and Porte look at each other and he could be gone.. He's not a great price at 12/1 but it's just about acceptable to try an each-way bet as he could podium in a sprint or a break.
It's wide open after that any of about 50 riders could try an early, or late break in the stage. Last year there were riders all over the place but conditions were appalling. I picked Paolo Tiralongo a few days ago but he didn't get a chance to do anything. Tomorrow's stage might suit him too - he could go in a break or he could hang in there with the favourites and he has a decent sprint in him too. WIth work duties done now for Aru, who is unlikely to move up the GC, he might be given more freedom. At 25/1 he is worth a small interest.
I don't think Pozzovivo or Contador are capable of getting away on their own, especially Contador as he came down near the finish today. Tejay Van Garderen has been climbing well, as we saw very clearly with his win on the queen stage. It will be hard for him to get away on his own in this company though but he probably will give it a go as it's the last stage. Hivert and Alaphilippe were in the break today, I think they will be too tired for tomorrow.
Fabio Aru, Giampaolo Caruso, Diego Rosa - they could all try their luck, as could Jurgen Van Den Broeck. We haven't seen much of him but he has had to work for de Clercq, but he did seem to be riding well. With de Clercq duties well and truly over he might have the freedom to attack on a climb that suits. If he does, he might just be let go as he is not a threat. Porte, Pozzovivo and Contador are not going to chase him down, it'll be up to Valverde. As much as I don't want to back him, I feel I have to have a saver on him as he has such a strong chance of victory.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Alejandro Valverde at 5/2 with Paddy Power
0.25pts each-way on Paolo Tiralongo at 25/1 with PP
0.75pts each-way on Dan Martin at 12/1 with BetVictor
0.2pts each-way on Jurgen Van den Broeck at 150/1 on Betfair Sportsbook
Matchbets:
Valverde to beat Uran, Tiralongo to beat Hivert, Caruso to beat Pardilla - 1pt on the treble at 2.1/1 with Bet365
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Overall Contenders and Favourites
Froome, Contador, Uran, Martin, Valverde - five of the best climbers and GC riders in the world. But does this course suit them all? No Time Trial and a relatively easy Queen stage means that it'll be hard for Froome and Contador to really exploit their strengths and put the weaker climbers out of contention. There are a number of hilly, but not overly difficult stages that could come down to a reduced peloton sprint and it could be won by bonus seconds. The winner of each stage gets 10 seconds, then 6 and 4 seconds and there are also 3,2 and 1 seconds available for intermediate sprints.
This means to me that the race swings very firmly in Alejandro Valverde's favour. And indeed, when the bookies started coming out with their prices, he was installed the 5/2 favourite. Valverde has ridden this race before and looking at the raw results you would think that he has a pretty poor record here, but in fact he has had a lot of bad luck. He was caught behind a crash in 2012 and in 2013, when leading the race by 4" from Wiggins and Rodriguez he crashed out also. He missed the race in 2014 but is back this year and is in pretty good form.
He rode well in the Strade Bianche and in the GP Nobili last week and should be perfectly suited by a number of these stages. The climb to La Molina isn't hard enough I think for Froome and Contador to drop a rider of his abilities, like with Rodriguez last year. In fact, I think he will do something similar to Rodriguez last year when he sticks with Froome and Contador, let them try a few things but outsprint them at the finish to victory. Stages 2, 3 and 5 also look perfectly suited to him, the tough climbs before the finish should strip away a lot of the sprinter types and he has a good enough finishing kick to beat a lot of the GC contenders who should get to the finish with him.
Chris Froome will be interesting to watch - after a strange Ruta del Sol where he was stuffed by Contador's smart team attack on one stage, only to bounce back and smash Contador the next day to take the overall victory. He missed Tirreno again this year, this time with a chest infection (last year with a back injury) and who knows what sort of effect that break in his schedule will have on him. Last year he didn't quite have his explosiveness on La Molina, he tried to attack but didn't really get anywhere and just pulled the GC favourites with him.. then Rodriguez jumped and no one could catch him. I think it might be the same this year, the climbs aren't hard enough or long enough for him to really put down the power and leave the rest behind.
Alberto Contador looked great in one stage in the Ruta, sprinting away up the hill but then collapsed the next day to lose a 27" advantage. In Tirreno he was missing a level as well when Quintana went, he was unable to go with him and was unable to leave the rest of the GC men behind, none of his attacks were very strong actually, they were more just little frustrated jolts rather than a solid attack. He has the Giro in his plans though and needs to start stepping up his game soon, but it may be that he isn't overly bothered by not being 100% just yet. These climbs don't exactly suit him perfectly either though, just like Froome.
Rigo Uran rode well in Tirreno, sprinting to an excellent 2nd place on stage 4 and then recovered well on the climb to Terminillo to finish 4th behind Quintna to seal a 3rd place spot on the podium. A time trial would have helped him here, but he should be challenging Valverde for some of the sprint finishes and could do well too. A podium place is possible again for the little Colombian.
It may be that Sky should play their B card here though in Richie Porte, who is clearly in brilliant form. Winning Paris-Nice with a scintillating attack on the Queen stage and a superb time trial up the Col d'Eze. If Froome isn't 100%, or even 90% after his illness, and the fact the route suits Porte a bit more than Froome, maybe they need to give him the nod.. It could be that on the stage to La Molina he is riding at the front near Froome, maybe behind Movistar or Tinkoff-Saxo, who might be making the pace, and then attacks hard like on Croix de Chaubouret. If Contador, Valverde and Uran stall for a moment to watch Froome, then Porte could be gone. The climbs gradient is his type of gradient and he certainly has the legs. He certainly looks a lot more value to me at 16/1 than Froome at 5/1.
Dan Martin is a bit hard to work out. He hasn't a lot of racing in his legs and didn't go great in Tirreno, suffering in the snow to Terminillo and did a pretty poor time trial too. He didn't do a bad ride though on stage 4 to Castelraimondo, on a similar sort of course to a lot of these stages, finishing 15th. He is a former winner of this race though, winning it in 2013 with a brilliant ride to Port Ainé, but that was a far harder summit finish than any of these stages. He has a good sprint on him though and if the legs are good he may be able to challenge for the victory on the Queen stage but I think a 5th to 10th place is the best he can hope for.
And there are a bunch of other riders who are on the fringes that could go well on any given day, or get in the right break that could take a sizeable gap that could see them take overall victory. Tejay Van Garderen took a good stage last year, taking advantage of the favourites marking each other rather than going after him. He rode ok in Paris-Nice but screwed up by not having enough clothes on him in the stage to Nice and suffered badly. It will be hard for him to get away from this lot though and I can't see him repeating that sort of win, which would be his only way of gaining victory overall I think.
Wilco Kelderman, Woet Poels, Domenico Pozzovivo, Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky - they could all go well and could do a 'Poels' like in Tirreno which could give them a nice lead that they could hold on to. None of them have been overly impressive so far this year, so I couldn't be trusting any of them. Giampaolo Caruso could be one to keep an eye on though as he is now probably going to be team leader for Katusha with the withdrawal of Purito because of illness. 10th in the Strade Bianche, 7th in the stage to Castelraimondo in Tirreno won by Woet Poels, he could go ok here too.
Overall though I think the race will be won by small margins on the line, but more significantly by the bonus seconds on offer. I think Valverde will be the benefactor of bonus seconds on a number of stages and has a good chance of winning, or staying quite close to the winner on the Queen stage to La Molina. Richie Porte and Rigoberto Uran offer value compared to Contador and Froome on a course that suits them more than the big two.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 10/3 with Paddy Power (and 0.5pts e/w at 8/1 with Bet365)
0.5pts each-way on Richie Porte at 16/1 with Ladbrokes
1pt each-way on Rigoberto Uran at 18/1 with BetVictor
