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Published on Saturday, 11 April 2015 16:55

Paris-Roubaix 2015 Preview

Sunday 12th April, 253.5kms

Can anyone stop King Kristoff? The Norwegian is in incredible form at the moment and continued his dominance of spring races with yet another win in the crash-marred Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. He has now tumbled yet again to as low as 7/2 to win L'Enfer du Nord, a ridiculous price given his record in the race! 

Kristoff's record in the race starting last year reads DNF, 9th, 57th, DNF, DNF.. but he has never been in the form that he is in this year, and to be fair, he was taken out in a crash last year early on in the race, much to my disgust as I had picked him as my main pick of the day!

His performance in Flanders was stunning though - clever and ballsy to attack at that point in the race when his rivals least expected it, clever to take a diesel like Terpstra with him, who also has a strong team behind to mark and cover chasing moves.

And just so, so strong. Terpstra thought he could drop him on the Paterberg, he couldn't even draw level with him, yet alone pass him. Terpstra was so resigned to the strength of AK that he didn't even make one attempt to attack him in the last 10kms, something that baffled most fans and must have had Lefevre pulling his hair out for the lack of ambition. But I guess, as Kristoff had cleverly convinced him, finishing 2nd in this race isn't a bad result at all.. 

Paris-Roubaix is a different beast altogether though. The terrain may be flatter, allowing some riders a better chance than the hilly Ronde route, but it contains no less than 57.5kms of cobbles altogether in 27 sections this year. That is one section less than last year, but 6.5kms more cobbles than last year. The organisers have re-categorised the cobbled sections again this year and have now categorised three sections as five-star, meaning that they are the hardest, roughest and poorest condition. They are the Arenberg Forest, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Arbre, the latter being a new addition to the rank of five stars, as apparently it is in even worse condition this year than last.. According to Thierry Gouvenou of the ASO "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest this year. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone" 

Known as 'L'enfer du Nord' or the 'Hell of the North' it was first run in 1896 and is one of the oldest cycling races in the world. On a dry day it chokes the riders and cakes them in the dust blown up by the motorbikes and other riders, like last year, where they were almost obscured from view at times with the amount of dust being kicked up. On a wet day it becomes a nightmare of slippy cobbles, mud and deep pools of water that can hide the sharp and dangerous cobbles and rocks.   

The Route

Every year they start in Compiegne in the Place du Palais, just north of Paris and the first 98.5kms or so are pretty uneventful, flat and boring until they hit the first of the cobbled sections at Troisvilles to Inchy, a 3-star, 2200m stretch to ease them in to the Pavé. Over the next 50kms they pass eight cobbled sections covering a total of 17kms of Pavé as they head predominantly northwards towards Valenciennes. 

The three 'Five-Star' sections of cobbles will have a major bearing on the outcome of the race. The first comes with 95kms left, section 18 of the Trouée d'Arenberg (the Trench of Arenberg) which is a punishing and very rough 2.4kms long.

First proposed by Jean Stablinski, a former world champion who used to work in the local mine, it's a stunningly ominous and iconic section of 'road' with the road-side trees a stark contrast to the wide open fields they ride through later on. This is where we will probably see some teams like Katusha, Lotto-Jumbo and Etixx-QS put the hammer down to try to thin the peloton out. As Stablinski said more than 50 years ago "Paris-Roubaix is not won in the Arenberg, but from there the group with the winner is selected."

It fell in to such a state of disrepair it was removed in 2005 but the Amis de Paris-Roubaix spent €250,000 repairing it and restoring it to its original 3m width and it was reintroduced again. Pippo Pozzato tried it out in training last year and said "It's the true definition of hell. It's very dangerous, especially in the first kilometre when we enter it at more than 60kh. It's unbelievable. The bike goes in all directions. It will be a real spectacle but I don't know if it's really necessary to impose it on us"

The next key five star section is the Mons-en-Pévèle section which comes with only about 49kms to go and has been a race-shaper on a number of occassions in the past. In 2010 Cancellara launched his race-winning move just before this section of pavé. In 2012, Boonen kicked off his long solo effort just before this section, putting the hammer down and quickly building up a lead. 

In 2008 Stijn Devolder attacked here and helped set up Boonen for another of his wins. It's 3km long and the first 1100m are in ok condition, but the last 1100m are quite rough with mud flowing from the fields adding to the difficulty.

There's a series of tough cobbled sections that come one after the other in the last 40kms but it's the 4th last section of the Carrefour de l'Arbe with 17kms to go that can be a race maker or race breaker.

Not only is it a place the likes of Vanmarcke, Stybar, Terpstra or Thomas will try to shed any remaining hangers-on by hammering it at the front, but it is also a section which sees it's fair share of crashes and accidents. In 2013 both the OPQS riders in the final quartet, Stybar and Vandenbergh, were hit by over-enthusiastic spectators and their chances of victory were ended in seconds. Thor Hushovd also came a cropper here in 2009 when his wheels slid from under him taking a sharp left-hander. 

Then on to the finish in Roubaix.. First, one last section of cobbles, but it's flat and easy, almost procession-like in the town as they approach the velodrome and pass under the 1km to go flag. Then on to the idiosyncratic finish, a lap and a half of the velodrome, which often sees the leading riders joined on their last lap by the chasers starting their first lap. It's seen plenty of solo winners, but equally plenty of tight sprint finishes. Last year we had the stange situation where Terpstra won, the chase group started on the track but the camera man picked up a second group and stayed with them to the finish, missing the sprint for second completely, so it took a while before we found out it was John Degenkolb had taken it..

It was interesting to hear a quote from the Lotto-Soudal DS Herman Frison about a recon ride they did during the week - "It was remarkable that the cobblestone sectors were cleaner than other years, less sand and gravel. Nevertheless each sector is hard.”  The course sound ready, are the riders?!

The Weather

Thankfully for the riders, the weather forecast for Sunday is really good. Apparently almost no chance of rain and temperatures of around 17º with a tail-wind for most of the day as they head north, a wind of around 10-12mph, so nothing major though.. It should make things a little bit safer, but should make it another dusty old day like last year. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a race that can throw up all sorts of problems - just ask Stybar and Vandebergh in 2013 who got taken out by spectators while in superb positions with not far to go. The rough cobbles cause plenty of crashes and punctures and your race could be over before you know it even if you are feeling the strongest you ever have. Alexander Kristoff for example was taken out by a crash before the coverage even came on air last year. Looking at the last ten years winners shows that only Terpstra in 2014, Vansummeren in 2011 and O'Grady in 2007 have broken the Boonen/Cancellara monopoly. They really are legends of the race and will be badly missed again like at Flanders last Sunday.

You have to start with Man-of-the-Moment Alexander Kristoff. The man could win the Grand National if he entered it he is in such incredible form at the moment. No need to elaborate, I've written about him so many times before, but his performance in Flanders was simply sensational. For a sprinter to go from that far out was Kelly-esque, a powerhouse display that not even Niki Terpstra could cope with.  

He has shown in the 3DDP, Flanders and the Scheldenprijs this month that he has no problem coping with the cobbles, and in fact, on the Paterberg he was one of the fastest over the hill, Terpstra was struggling to pass him. What is it with his record in Flanders though? Bad luck? Not suited to flatter cobbles as much as the hilly ones? He has admitted that himself this week and has been trying to downplay his chances. I was a big fan of his for MSR, I thought he would do well in Flanders, but not as well as he did do, but I'm not all that keen to back him at just 5/1, he's as short as 4/1 in places.

I just have a fear that he might be isolated and under pressure near the end and any mechanical or crash could take him out of it again. His team are not very strong and there were rumours of a big falling out between Paolini and AK after GW and it was noticable how far back Paolini was on Sunday in Flanders, he missed the move on the Taaienberg and didn't try to bridge like Vanmarcke did and came home in 52nd.. Not sure if the rumours are true but I can't see many Katusha men at the finish, although they do seem to have extremely good legs at the moment.. (look at Rodriguez in the Pais Vasco again today...)

What can we make of Sep Vanmarcke's chances after last weekend? Favourite for the two cobbled Classics for months, he completely flopped in Flanders. It's the manner of what happened is the most puzzling and most worrying though, he was dropped on the Taaienberg when the pace wasn't even that furious, he got trapped in a second group that got separated from the leaders over the top and his race looked over. Yes, he made a strong and very valiant effort to bridge across (I think he was the only one out of that group to even come close), but he faded on the hill out of Ronse after the Kruisberg within touching distance of the leaders and his race was over.

I say worrying also as it was the manner in which he faded so quick. Ok, that was a big effort to nearly get there, and up front things were kicking off, but if he'd wanted to win the race he would have had to put in an even bigger and longer effort from the front and it's clear he wasn't capable of that. He cut a lonely figure when he rolled past us on the Kwaremont a few minutes down. It will be hard to see him tear it up on the cobbled sections if his power is lacking.

Maybe he was on a bad day, but he's had a few bad days now and his confidence must be pretty low. Flanders is a race he does well in normally, but so is Roubaix and in fact Roubaix's flatter roads probably suit him better. He rolled in 5 minutes down in the Scheldeprijs, but that's probably because of the crash. We may see a different Sep on Sunday, but if Etixx-QS look to put him under pressure a long way out he could find himself isolated and in trouble. I'm not willing to take a chance on him again given how disappointing he was last Sunday.

Greg Van Avermaet continues to impress me though, with another gallant, valiant effort in the Ronde. He was aggressive and ambitious early in the race, attacking a few times to test the water. Yes, BMC cocked up by letting two riders like Kristoff and Terpstra simply ride off the front of an easy section of road, but GVA was great after that I felt. His attack on the Paterberg left all bar Sagan floundering and the power he showed to not only hold off the chasing pack on the run-in but also to sprint away from Sagan and almost catch the front two was very impressive.

He was unlucky here last year, sliding and crashing with about 20kms to go when well in contention and he never regained contact with the front group, eventually finishing in 17th place, 47" down with Vandenbergh and Démare. He decided to skip Scheldeprijs this year and that should ensure he has rested fully after last Sunday and should be ready for a big ride here again. BMC owe him a big ride after last weekend and he is due a big race. I think he'll be a key animator of the race again Sunday and I'm backing him at 16/1.

Bradley Wiggins.. The hype and hope is almost unbearable.. Ok, he did well last year, but do we really think he is going to perform a miracle on Sunday and ride away from some of the best Classics riders in the world? His form has been patchy to poor with only the TT victory in the 3DDP against mediocre opposition to shout about really this year. Yes, it would be an amazing way to finish his road career but I honestly can't see it happening and his price of 6/1 is just laughable. It's just the bookies adjusting their books after some mug punters got carried away with the hype, and they may be fearing many more will follow by Sunday.. No point in having big liabilities in case he does pull it off, rather like a Tony McCoy ridden favourite in the Grand National.

To win, he'll have to ride clear in the closing 30kms or so, he won't win from a bunch sprint, he won't win if he goes to the finish with the likes of Terpstra, Van Avermaet, Sagan or Stybar. Geraint Thomas will have a huge role to play in this stage, he will have to look after Brad and rip it up on the Camphin en Pévele or the Carrefour de l'Arbre and try to shed as many rivals as possible and look to launch Wiggo solo for a 10km TT at the finish. If he gets a small gap though of 10-20 seconds, he might just pull it off. It would be unbearably exciting if he is away and being chased down, I think Carlton could spontaneously combust with the excitement as he trys to portray the hopes and wishes of thousands of Wiggos fans all over the country. Let's hope he is in with a crack at the finish though, would be a shame to see him taken out by a crash or a puncture. 

And what of Geraint Thomas's chances? It's been all about Brad, but that will have been good to ease the pressure on Thomas. He had been in great form recently, winning the E3 in superb fashion, but was disappointing in Flanders. He was prominent for most of the day with the Sky squad trying to dominate the head of the race like it was a Grand Tour mountain stage, but when push came to shove he was worn out. He looked good over the Kwaremont second time around but in the final 28kms when Terpstra and AK slipped off the front, he was looking over his shoulder looking for someone else to chase. He also couldn't go with GVA and Sagan on the Paterberg and looked cooked on the run-in. 

He did very well last year here though finishing 7th, ahead of Wiggins, but the year before he finished 14 minutes back and in 2011 he was outside the time limit! I think he will go well tomorrow, but like Wiggins, may have to settle for 5th to 10th. In fact, the 4/5 with Skybet that neither of them finish in the top 3 looks a good bet to me. 

Etixx-QuickStep come here mob-handed again with a bunch of potential winners as usual. Reigning champion and RVV runner-up last week Niki Terpstra is practically the same price as Zdenek Stybar and it is hard to separate them. Last year, Terpstra took advantage of a lull in the leading group and a tactical catch 22 for the rest with Boonen sitting there, to slip off the front and solo powerfully to victory. You'd think that the others would have learned from that and not let Terpstra try any more stealth attacks, but no, just last Sunday he almost slipped off un-noticed again. It wasn't even a big, aggressive attack, he just upped the pace with Kristoff, got a little gap and then went full gas. 

Terpstra has to be one of the big favourites again for the race, a race where E-QS have so many cards to play, they could have 4 or 5 guys in the leading group in the last 40kms. I don't think Terpstra can slip off the front again though, so he will have to do it with sheer power and drive this time, but I wouldn't put it past him. In his debut Paris-Roubaix in 2013 Zdenek Stybar was in the winning break of the day before he was clattered by someone from the crowd and was sent sprawling on the cobbles. He has been performing very well in recent weeks, his win in Strade Bianche being the highlight.

He also rode an excellent team race last Sunday, marking every move that tried to chase after Terpstra, something that earned him a lot of praise from Lefevre afterwards. It could be his turn to shine this week though, maybe Terpstra can return the favour and string things out with him on his wheel and then let him ride off the front on the Carrefour or one of the later sections while Terpstra sits up and blocks the path forcing others around him and on to the rougher cobbles like Vandenbergh did with Boonen last year. That could be an effective tactic, but also if they can shed the sprinters and come to the finish with a small group he has a good sprint that could net him the victory. They are both around 8/1 though and it is a coin toss almost as to who will be the candidate for victory. If I was to pick one of the two, it's a very hard choice given how well both of them are riding, but I'd choose Stybar. 

But it's not only those two they have here - Stijn Vandenbergh has always gone well here and despite hitting a tree and smashing his nose and getting knocked off by John Degenkolb in the last few kilometres he still finished in the big group led home by Démare. Iljo Keisse, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Matteo Trentin, all possible winners if things took a strange twist. They will be working for their two team leaders mainly though and they will have important roles to play to ensure they are in contention hitting the last 20kms.

Runner up last year, but winner of the 'bunch' sprint was John Degenkolb after a brilliant ride on the cobbles kept him in contention right to the end. He showed that he is well capable of handling the cobbles, but not only that he showed he is capable of being very strong at the end of 250 hard kilometres, something that he again showed this year with his brilliant sprint win in Milan-San-Remo. 7th in Flanders last Sunday, he again won the 'bunch' sprint with only Benoot and Boom having escaped in the run-in. 

The flat roads of PR suit him a lot better than the Hellingen of Flanders, but even so, he did superbly well last week. He comes here with a very strong looking team, packed full of strong, talented guys - Bert de Backer was superb last year on the cobbles, driving hard at times and looking after Deggers as much as he could, and eventually finished 11th himself. He will be a big ally for Degenkolb again this year, expect the big man to be taking some big pulls. Koen de Kort, Nik Arndt, Albert Timmer, Roy Curvers, Ramon Sinkeldam... all very strong guys. There could be 3 or 4 of them still near the front in the last 50kms too. 

I think Degenkolb has a tremendous chance of winning this race on Sunday - there is a good chance a small group of 10-20 could come to the finish again like last year and he would be one of the hot favourites to take the sprint at the end. Of course it would make things easier if Kristoff isn't there, but he has put him away already this year in MSR so he shouldn't be worried about him. Kristoff does seem to be on a special level right now but I think in a flat sprint on the track Deggers can beat him. He is 9/1 with PP who are paying 4 places and hopefully that should be a confident shout of getting a return - if there is a solo rider or a pair of breakaway guys finish ahead, Degenkolb should be able to still land the place money by leading home the bunch. 

Peter Sagan - the Enigma. Hot and cold, good and bad, but mostly disappointing, he looked like he was on a bad day again for a lot of Flanders, hiding well down the pack for most of the day. But then as the race entered the last 30kms he came alive - like most of the rest though he missed the main move, but then looked one of the strongest at the top of the Paterberg. He came from about 6th in the group with about 50m to go to the top and with a very powerful surge he blasted past Degenkolb and Thomas and quickly bridged to GVA where he helped them to stay away. Not for the first time this season though he was out of juice at the finish and GVA easily skipped away from him in the last 300m. 

When he has ridden PR, he has finished 6th last year, but was 13 minutes down in 2011 and DNF in 2010. He had a tendency last year to ride with the choke out a little too much, wasting energy, he seemed to play Flanders a lot better this year, letting others do the wasting and then popped up at the end, 4th wasn't a bad result after all. If he can tuck in again, sit on the BMC, SKY, E-QS coat-tails and get a free ride to the last 10kms he could do well. But with the fact he seems to be lacking something at the finish in races this year, and with this being over 250 hard kilometres he may struggle at the finish again and the 14/1 for the win is to be avoided in my opinion. 

Lars Boom showed in the TDF last year how well suited to these roads he is, but he could do with it being a wet and horrible day like it was last July.. He rode well in Flanders, very much under the radar, but broke away in the run in to steal 6th place. He didn't have a great race last year, but did finish 14th in 2013, an impressive 6th in 2012 and 12th in 2011, finishing in the Eisel group of 12 just 47" behind Vansummeren. I was thinking of backing him but was hoping for around 25/1, 16/1 is pretty short.. he is 5/2 to finish in the top 3 and that is too short also I think, although it is better than backing him each-way at 16/1 if he places as that only returns 3/2.

Others who can go well? Jurgen Roelandts is looking forward to this race - he said about his form: "Since Milan-Sanremo I have a good feeling. It’s impossible for me to be at the start with a better shape than this. I’m hoping for the legs I had in Ghent-Wevelgem, my best day until now. "Paris-Roubaix suits me more than the Tour of Flanders. Due to injuries in the past, this will only be my fourth participation in the Hell. The team is strong and I hope to have three or four teammates around me for the last 50 kilometres. We have to race offensively again and take the chances if they appear.” Lotto Soudal do indeed come here with a strong squad, the same squad that lined up in Flanders, with rising superstar student Thies Benoot dreaming that it is not just initials he shares with his hero Tom Boonen come Sunday evening! 14th is his best result in the race in 2011. At around 50/1 on Betfair Roelandts may be a back to lay bet, that is back him at that price and if he goes on the offensive and is looking good his price should shorten right up and you could lay it back again at a price under 5/1 probably. 

Two sprinters who could go well are André Greipel and Arnaud Démare. André Greipel was superb last Sunday, attacking, pushing it and at least livened up the race quite a bit. He was hanging on for his life at the back of the leading group when they passed us on the Kwaremont on the last passage, he did extremely well to hang in there to lead the second little group home and take 15th place. If Lotto send someone like Benoot or Roelandts up the road, Greipel will have an easy ride in the pack, he just needs a few team-mates like Lars Bak to look after him and make sure he stays in a good position. He could conceivably get to the finish with the leading group and then would have a good chance in the sprint. At 50/1 he might be worth a small bet each-way. 

Edward Theuns, Sebastian Langeveld and Johan Vansummeren are very big prices at 200/1, especially for Vansummeren, a former winner of this race. Damian Gaudin rode a big race last Sunday, going on a break with Lars Bak. He was 5th here two years ago so he could well be in the reckoning again, he is a big price at 150/1. I'll mention him again - Florian Senechal, he hails from Cambrai not far from the course. Winner of the Junior PR, he knows the cobbles well. 400/1 is worth a shot again!

Jempy Drucker, Yohann Offredo, Bjorn Leukemans - all guys who could put in big rides again at big prices. I think though that his race will be decided amongst the top favourites - probably the top 10 in the betting. I think we might see a similar result to last year, Sky, E-QS and BMC will battle it out and there could be a regrouping in the last 20kms. I think Degenkolb could be still there, not sure about Kristoff, and if Deggers is there, I think he wins. Paddy Power have just pushed him out to 10/1, even better. Look for Van Avermaet, Boom and Stybar for the breakaways. 

Recommendations:

John Degenkolb - 1.5pts each-way at 10/1 with Paddy Power who are paying 4 places

Greg Van Avermaet - 1pt e/w at 16/1 with Paddy Power who are paying 4 places (this was my bet as above, not the top 3 bet as mistakenly first put up here (was from last year's template!))

0.2pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 400/1 with Boylesports who are paying 4 places

Damian Gaudin - 0.2pts each-way at 150/1 with Paddy Power who are paying 4 places

Brad Wiggins or Geraint Thomas to NOT finish in the first 3 - 2.5pts at 4/5 with Skybet 

Match-Bets:

Drucker to beat Haussler - 1.5pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Stybar to beat Sagan - 1.5pts at 8/11

Wiggins to beat Vanmarcke - 1pt at 4/6

Van Avermaet to beat Boom - 1.5pts at 8/11

Terpstra to beat Thomas and Vandenbergh to beat Stannard - 2pts on the double at 5/4 with Bet365