Tirreno-Adriatico 2015

Stage 1 

Stage 1 - Camaiore to Cascina

Thursday March 12th, 153km

So a good start with Malori winning the stage by 1" from Cancellara, I did say there would only be seconds between the top 5, it was only 2"! Hepburn and Sergent were very disappointing, and the surprise package of the day was Greg Van Avermaet who once again showed why he is one of the best bike riders in the world right now by taking 3rd place, just 1" behind Cancellara. 

In the GC battle, it was indeed my man Uran who came off best, finishing in 19th place, just 10" off the pace. Nibali did an excellent time trial to finish in 21st, just 1" behind Uran. Contador finished in 67th place and has lost 9" to Uran, Quintana has lost 10" to his compatriot. Thibaut Pinot did a good TT to lose only 3" to Uran, he has shortened up to just 20/1 with 365, he is still available at 80/1 with Ladbrokes! Contador is still the same price but Uran has shortened a little to around 6/1 now, Nibali has shortened to 11/1 best, as short as 6/1.

This is a day for the sprinters as they head south to Cascina on a very short stage of just 153kms. They start with a loop around Camaiore which takes them over the climb of Ptoro twice before they head out on the road south, and the further south they go, the flatter the road becomes. With 40kms to go they reach Cascina and start on a loop out around the town before finishing with a dead flat and straigh road that is perfect for a fast sprint.   

Mark Cavendish has been installed the even money favourite with both PP and Bet365. That is a very short price for a guy who has been suffering from a bug for the last 4 days since returning from South Africa. Of course, he is absolutely flying this year and Kuurne Brussels Kuurne was a top class performance, the way he accelerated past Kristoff. That sort of kick should see him win this. But, he has been ill, and he has been beaten by Viviani this year remember. He did go out and beat him the next stage, but it shows that Viviani has the beating of him if things go his way. 

Viviani has had a good start to his life at Sky with a win, a 2nd and two 3rds, including coming from a mile back to snatch 3rd in KBK last week. Incidentally, he and Cav finished on the same time today in the TT, two very good times by them. They have two very good leadout trains here so it should be a real battle in the last 2kms. I just have a feeling that Cav may struggle tomorrow and Viviani is the man to take advantage I feel. 

Pelucchi and Sagan are both around 11/1 - Sagan did a reasonable TT but I feel he will not be good enough to beat either of the top guys. Peluccchi has gone off the boil a little since the first few races of the season, and he could only manage 10th in KBK. I'm going to pass on him tomorrow I think. Modolo and Mezgec are also around the 12-16/1 sort of price but again they are only scrapping for 2nd or 3rd place at best. Like Cav and Viviani, these two finished on the exact same time as each other too today, in 122nd and 123rd place! Modolo has had a few average results, Mezgec at least has got his nose in front in the Haut-Var. Mezgec has a really strong leadout here though, the leadout that was sent here to win stages for Kittel, so I think he could be in with a good chance of taking a podium spot. 

Sam Bennett could go close too at 18/1 but I think there might be other stages better suited to him.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 9/2 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Luca Mezgec at 14/1 with Bet365

 

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Stage 2 

Stage 2 -  Ascina to Arezzo

Friday March 13th, 203km

An unlucky result in Cascina when Mark Cavendish caused a crash that took out both of my guys, when both of them were moving up nicely and well in contention. Mezgec must have felt good as he was going for the sprint, the deal was that if he hadn't recovered from the flu that had been affecting him then they would work for Arndt. Viviani was wheel surfing nicely and looked good.. unfortunately they didn't get in a blow. Debuscherre took a great win and Sam Bennett again underlined how good he is getting with his first World Tour podium place. 

This stage sees them head inland a lot more as they head towards Arezzo. The first half of the route has a couple of little lumps to get over, the San Martino after 54kms and the Poggio all Croce after 82kms, but as the latter comes 120kms from the finish they shouldn't really make a major impact on the outcome of the race, as it's likely to be a sprint finish again. Having said that though, we could see a breakaway make it as the rolling course and a possible head/cross wind could split things up. 

With 55kms to go they enter Arezzo and start a circuit of 11kms which they do 5 times. I said earlier it could be a sprint finish, but it isn't a sprint for the pure sprinters, as the final kilometre kicks up at 5% average to make it a really tricky finish. Not only is it uphill, hitting 11% at the bottom of the climb, they also have to go through a gate and over some pavé so it really should be a cracking finish - a battle between the GC men, the stronger sprinters like Bennett and the classics men like Sagan, Boassen Hagen and Cancellara.

The prices that are out now have made Peter Sagan the 5/2 favourite (as short as 11/8) and the main reason for that is that he won this exact same stage last year in superb fashion, going after Gilbert who had made the jump for victory and sprinting past him in the last 100m. Sagan has yet to taste victory this year, but came as close as you can do in today's stage again, just being beaten by Debus. This finish is perfect for him and the guys who finished 2nd to 5th last year are all in Paris-Nice. He is short at 5/2 based on the fast he has struggled a little this year, but he will not have a better chance on winning a race this year I think and should finally break his duck.

Greg Van Avermaet is 2nd favourite at 10/1 and he has a solid chance of being in the mix too. He could attack up that last hill like he did in Strade Bianche, but his problem is that he will probably be outsprinted at the finish by a couple of guys like Sagan, as Stybar did on Sunday. He may have to settle for a top 10. This finish should suit Zdenek Stybar well too, he looked super powerful last Sunday and easily outsprinted GVA at the finish. If he can be in the right place coming to the last 500m he should be a real danger. 

Cancellara is 14/1, but I can't have him tomorrow. Eddie Boassen Hagen looked very strong today, leading out for Tyler Farrar and this sort of finish would suit him too you think, but I think 5th to 10th for him. It's wide open behind, but three guys at big prices I want to back are Daniele Benatti, Sam Bennett and Magnus Cort Neilsen. 

Benatti was the first home last year of the riders that are here this year, finishing in 5th place. He tweeted today '2morrow we arrive in my City, will honor the race 4 my fans!' so his motivation and his intentions are clear. He should be in the mix coming up the hill again this year and may be helping to lead out Sagan, if so he could stay on and take a podium spot. If someone else like Etixx take it up he can sit in with Sagan and attack at the finish. Worth a small bet at 100/1 with that in mind. 

Sam Bennett finished very strongly today and will like this kind of finish, if he can stay at the front coming around the bend on to the flat finishing sprint he could well take this stage. Again, at 66/1 it's worth a shot. Finally, Magnus Cort Neilsen - the young Dane is a rider with huge potential and last year he had a huge amount of impressive results while riding with the Pro Conti team Cult Energy. Now he is in the big league with Orica GreenEdge and he showed the legs are good with a fine 6th place in today's sprint. He likes an uphill finish as he showed on a number of occassions last year, and at 50/1 with Paddy Power he could cause a surprise tomorrow. He is only 18/1 with Bet365 which is too short altogether though.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 5/2 with Paddy Power

0.5pts e/w on Zdenek Stybar at 12/1 with PP

0.25pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 66/1 with BetVictor

0.2pts e/w on Daniele Bennati at 100/1 with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Magnus Cort Nielsen at 50/1 with Bet365

 

MatchBets

Pim Ligthart to beat Simon Geschke - 1.5pts at evens

Stybar to beat Van Avermaet - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

 

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Stage 3 

Stage 3 - Indicatore (Arezzo) to Castelraimondo

Saturday March 14th, 218km

A chaotic finish in Arezzo today and a throughly brilliant win by Greg Van Avermaet. I'm delighted he finally made the breakthrough, annoyed I wasn't on him when he did it as I back him so often!! I'm also annoyed as he denied me my second 1-2 in two days as Sagan finished second (again) with Stybar in 3rd. At least Stybar landed the each-way money at 12/1, pity that GVA blew the match-bet with Stybar! 

Great rides by Cancellara, Pozzato, Geschke to finish in the top 6, Uran was the best of the GC men in an impressive 9th, but all the GC men finished in the front group, not losing any time. It's a bit incredible that Sagan managed to screw it up again and again finish second. He tweeted tonight "seems like I like 2nd places ;)" - I doubt Oleg and Bjarne think it's so funny. 

This is the longest stage of the race at 218kms and it sees them start to reach hillier ground as they head further south-east towards Castelraimondo. There are plenty of hills to get over on the route, four of which are categorised climbs and another three or so which aren't but still could pose a few problems. 

The hills start with a categorised climb inside the first 13kms with the climb of the Foce della Scopetone. The road rolls along for over 100kms taking them over a little hill with 120kms gone, then they descend for about 20kms before they tackle the big climb of the day, the Poggio San Romualdo. The climb averages 7% over 10kms so we could see the first real splits of the race as the GC teams put some pressure on. With the first real opportunity to take the KOM jersey there should be plenty of attacks, and there could be a break get away that could possibly stay away to the finish. 

The last 80kms are very lumpy though and with 25kms to go they enter the closing circuit which they do twice. The circuit takes them over the climb of the Crispiero which should make it a cracking finish. The climb averages a steep 9.3% over 3kms, hitting a max of 13% 1km in to the hill. The climb rises and dips as it goes up, hitting 11% near the top too. Then it's a 6km fast descent down to Castelraimondo followes by 4kms along the flat as they wind their way back to the start of the climb of the Crispiero again.

There should be furious attacking up the climb this time around as once over the top there are only 6.5kms of a very fast descent to go, with a final little kick up for the last 250m at 4%. There's a couple of tight bends to negotiate in the closing stages, including a sharp left-hander just 250m from the line. The last 250m are dead straight though, so if there is a little group comes to the finish together it should make for a good finish. 

This is nearly impossible stage to pick a winner from. I'm tempted to just not try to pick a winner from this stage and just go to bed early! I was thinking at first that it would be doubtful we will get much agressive attacking from the GC men with the Queen stage the next day. Having said that though, they could save themselves for one blast up the Crispiero the final time around. There are only 6.5kms of a descent after the top of the hill to the finish, so we could see the likes of Contador, Uran or Pinot attack hard on the climb in an effort to break things to pieces.

It looks like that is the most likely scenario, I think the GC teams will control the break and may catch it the first time up the Crispiero. That will set it up then for the GC men to test each other - it's a short climb at just 3kms, but the gradient of over 9% is very hard. It will be hard for the sprinter/classics guys to stay with the climbers if they put the hammer down, and I expect them to - if they can strip it down to a small group and get 20"+ over the top, they could stay away to fight it out.

If Contador does attack, it's unlikely he'll solo to victory, the climb isn't hard enough for that. He won't win the sprint finish though. Same goes for Rigoberto Uran. Thibaut Pinot could well be in there though, he is going really well, has been training hard in Mallorca and his Strava times show that he is really flying at the moment. If he gets to the finish with the climbers, he could be one of the fastest. 

Peter Sagan is the 5/1 favourite and if he can hang in there on the climb then he should have a big chance of victory. There is a chance he will be dropped on the climb though, the climbers will do their best to ensure that, and I'm not tempted to back him just now at that price. It's one to watch and decide in-play maybe. 

Bauke Mollema is going well at the moment too and he has a pretty decent finishing kick on him - at 50/1 he could offer value as one of those guys who should hang in there and would have a strong chance in the sprint. Leo Konig and Mikel Nieve could try the 1-2 on the climb if they have the legs, Nieve might be able to stay with Contador but doesn't have a great kick, Konig's would be slightly stronger. 

Joaquim Rodriguez and Nairo Quintana are both around the 12/1 mark, and they don't appeal at all. Rodriguez doesn't seem to have great legs and has a rubbish sprint, Quintana will be marked too closely and won't get away, and he won't win many sprints. Dan Martin is only 22/1 and that's not something I'm interested in really. He has done very little racing and we haven't seen much of him in this race, although he did finish well today in the final climb to Arezzo so the legs can't be too bad.

Maybe he'll test himself here and try to stay with the attacks rather than instigate them, with one eye on the next too. I think the hill might be a bit tough for the likes of Van Avermaet and Stybar, but they are in such great form they might be able to hang in there and then would have a great chance at the finish. 

One I do like though is Rinaldo Nocentini - he can climb, he finished 17th today, so the legs are alright and if he gets to the finish with the lead group he has a decent sprint on him. At 40/1 he's one of my bets for tomorrow. Navardauskas could go well, as could Nibali, Roman Kreuziger, Javier Moreno, Domenico Pozzovivo, Giampaolo Caruso and Simon Geschke are all guys who could go well, hard to single one out. I think like in Paris-Nice I'll watch it in play and post some other bets on Twitter, watch out for those. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 40/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 40/1 with PP

0.4pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 22/1 with PP

Watch Twitter for more updates in-play.

 

Matchbets:

Giampaolo Caruso to beat Michele Scarponi - 3pts at 4/7

Nocentini to beat Arredondo - 2pts at 5/6

Mollema to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 5/6

 

 

 

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Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Esanatoglia to Terminillo

Sunday March 15th, 194km  

What a stunning ride from Wout Poels today, sprinting past Dani Moreno on the climb and holding off a charging peloton all the way to the line. An incredible performance for sure. It puts him in to the leader's jersey ahead of the Queen stage on Sunday but it is still all to play for - 20 riders are just 43" behind him with a cracking stage ahead of them on Sunday. I came very close with my 66/1 shot Nocentini, Uran and Rodriguez surprisingly sprinting for the placings and his team-mate Vuillermoz taking a place off him too.. I'd have been very pissed off if he'd taken 3rd and Nocentini finished 4th! He did a lot of work for Pozzovivo, all to no avail as he was unable to go with Caruso when he made the move that helped launch Poels, I wish he'd have saved himself for the finish!

The match bets did ok but Rodriguez spoiled it by busting the 3rd one beating Mollema, to result in a -1pt loss here, but a 9pt profit on the day with Paris-Nice's result. 

Stage 5 sees them head south to Terminillo on the toughest stage of the race and this is also likely to be the stage that decides the overall GC with it's hard summit finish. The stage starts hard with an uncategorised climb inside the first 7kms and this is followed by the next climb which starts just 14kms later. The climb of the Passo Sallegri is 10kms long at an average of around 6% and we should see the first selection get rid of the sprinters and the unfit.

After a near 20kms descent they start on the second climb of the day, the climb of Le Arette. This is a lot longer at around 20kms, but has an easier average gradient of around 3.5%. The final kilometres are the steepest, so we will probably see another push at the front to thin out the peloton. For those that can hang on in there and not lose too much on the climb though they have plenty of opportunity to get back on in time for the finale, as they descend for the best part of 70kms before the road starts to kick up again.

There are a couple of little lumps to get over before the main event of the day, the summit finish at Terminillo. The climb is 16kms long at an average of 7.3%, hitting a max of 12% around the 4km point on the climb. the lower parts of the climb are the hardest, with kilometres 2-7 averaging 8.1%, before it eases a little to just 4% for around a kilometre before kicking up again for the last 7.5kms at 7.9% average. The last 2kms sees it hit 9.2% average for 500m but the last 500m eases back to just 2.8% in time for a sprint finish amongst whoever is left!

This is a very steady climb once it starts kicking up with 7kms or so to go to the finish, so if someone can get away and get in to a good rhythm then they might be hard to catch. It's likely that the likes of Astana, Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar will keep the pressure on the whole way up this climb in order to let the big three fight it out for stage and GC glory in the last 2 or 3 kms.  

The first three climbs should see breaks go, possible multiple groups on the road as guys miss the first break but try to get away on the second and third climbs. It should then settle down in to a chase downhill for more or less 70kms, during which time the lead should be whittled way down as the Rouleurs do their job at the front of the peloton. 

The rolling roads they traverse for the last 40kms before the start of the Terminillo should see the gap close right up as the GC teams wind it up and the break tire. It should all be set for a showdown on the final climb, the break might have a minute or so lead going in to it, but that should disappear before they reach the little respite about half way up. 

The climb has three sections to it. A hard opening section of 7kms at 8.1% average, hitting 9-12% around 4kms in to it. It then eases off to around 4% average for about 1.5kms before they start on the final kick up to the finish, which is 7kms at an average of around 7.9%. The last 3kms are quite steep, averaging 8.5% before it eases to just 2.8% for the final 500m.

I think the domestiques for Tinkoff-Saxo, Etixx-Quick Step and Astana will drill it in the first part of the climb to thin it out to maybe only 10 or 20 riders. There will be a bit of a hiatus in the middle part while they look at each other a little, then the team leaders will take over and fight it out for stage and overall glory.

Contador will be favourite for the stage given his results and the form he has shown and will need to be very aggressive on the stage in order to win overall I think. He should lose time to Uran and Nibali in the final time trial and he already has a 32" handicap to overcome so he will be desperate for the bonus seconds at the finish. I think he will need to put 10-20" in to Uran and Nibali on the climb too to give himself a 20" cushion or so going in to the TT, so it's not a matter of if, but when he attacks. And indeed, he has opened the 11/8 favourite for the stage, which is short, but about right I think. Having watched today's stage again though, I'm surprised he didn't try something on the climb when Poels went, even just to see the reaction behind. Maybe he was just saving himself for tomorrow, maybe the legs weren't that great today.. 

He attacked quite early on that climb in Andalucia, 9.3kms from the finish when Ivan Basso drove at the front leading him in to the final climb and strung out the peloton brilliantly to allow Contador to launch off the front and already have a decent gap on those caught out behind. He quickly got the gap up to 30" and held it, only losing a little near the top when Froome really got in to top gear. He could well attack from the 7kms sort of distance when it kicks up, and it will be interesting to see the reaction from his main rivals.

Rigoberto Uran has been looking good and showed he was race fit with a strong finish on the sprint uphill in Arezzo and again today when he sprinted to 2nd place to steal 6 bonus seconds. He showed that he has good legs and he is most definitely switched on. He also did a good TT so is pushing good watts, but what will happen when Contador goes full gas after the T-S boys have strung it out for 7kms before that? Will he be able to respond and go with him? He does look the most likely to, but who knows how he will respond as we haven't really seen his climbing legs this year. Strade Bianche was pretty impressive but this is a different matter altogether. It may even be that he is the one that attacks and surprises Contador, if he has the legs he had on the second mountain stage, as opposed to the first mountain stage, in Andalucia, then Uran could leave him behind. 

Nibali seems to be getting better as the week goes on. He did a better TT than I expected, and finished well up there on the scrappy finish to Arezzo yesterday, taking 16th place. He hasn't looked comfortable on the climbs this year though and wasn't going good at all at the business end of Strade Bianche and he could find himself under pressure again tomorrow. I wrote that this morning before I saw how he rode today, he was going a lot better but still lost 7" to Contador's group. I still think he'll struggle!

Steve Cummings has done well so far, is sitting in 3rd place, just 26" off the lead. He has been climbing ok this year but I think he will struggle big time tomorrow and slip right out of contention. A surprise result for me today was Joaquim Rodriguez - he was prominent on the climb of the Crispiero, sitting just behind the Movistar and Astana squads. He had a team-mate up the road in Moreno so could just sit in and then sprinted to an impressive 3rd place, something I did not see happening, he must have been 100/1 or more for today's stage. If he can hang in there tomorrow and his legs are good after all, he could be a big danger to the stage victory. 

Wout Poels looked good today with his acceleration and power to the finish and he is in a great position now in the GC with a 17" advantage over Uran and 30+ seconds on Contador and co. Who knows how he will go now on this far harder and longer climb, I can't see him staying with the top climbers, but he did look very impressive today and he is wearing the leader's jersey after all. If you think he can hang in there with the best he is a huge price at 10/1 to win overall, he's got a decent time trial in him. I'm annoyed though that I picked two members of the Sky squad when Froome pulled out, but picked the wrong ones with Konig and Nieve!

Nairo Quintana rode ok today too, sitting in on the wheels of the leaders, very often just in behind Contador and Nibali, and I tried to read his face when he was climbing.. Of course it's nearly impossible to read Quintana's face, but he did seem to be puffing and blowing quite a lot. He should like this climb you'd think, especially if it was May or July, but I'm not sure how he'll go tomorrow, but he should be there or thereabouts. 

Pozzovivo was disappointing today on the steep final section of the climb, you'd have thought the type of climb he should love - he wasn't able to go with Caruso when he looked like he might attack and do something. I can't see him suddenly riding away from Contador and Uran tomorrow based on that. Dani Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso both gave it a go today too but both faded quite quickly. Mikel Nieve is just 33/1 for the stage tomorrow but surely he will now be charged with looking after Poels? Unless they know that Poels is not suited to tomorrow's stage and give Nieve the orders to stay with the leaders and go for it himself.. too much of a risk at 33/1.

De Marchi lost 10 minutes today, I can't have him. Dan Martin rode well today and finished with the lead group in 15th place. This would suggest the legs are pretty good and he looks very big at 50/1. He could hang in there and give it a go late on on the climb while the top GC men watch each other.

Finally, Thibaut Pinot - he too has been riding really well and finished just one place behind Dan Martin. As I said yesterday, his training numbers have been really good and he could well be involved in the final selection in this stage. He could be a podium contender at tempting 25/1 with PP. Jurgen Van Den Broeck rode well today and he could be an interesting outsider at a big 100/1.

Overall though, I think Contador will attack and leave them all behind with 4kms or so to go. Uran will give chase with Pinot and Quintana and Martin and Uran, Martin and Pinot will fight it out for the runners-up spot behind Contador. The question is, will he take enough time to make it comfortable in the TT? That I'm not so certain of, but fingers crossed. Uran is still looking good for the podium, hopefully that goes well too. The match-bet treble is currently winning, hopefully that stays as it is too! 

One very important factor to bear in mind though is that there were reports of snow on the upper slopes of the Terminillo tonight and there were rumours doing the rounds that the course might be shortened or changed, so watch out for news on that as it would make a big difference to the outcome of the stage and the GC. Let's hope they get to ride it though and the race is run as it should be. 

Recommendations

3pts win on Alberto Contador at 11/8 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 25/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way on Dan Martin at 50/1 with Bet365

MatchBets

Caruso to beat Nocentini - 3pts at 8/11

Meintjes to beat Rolland - 3.5pts at 4/7 

Van den Broeck to beat Niemiec - 2pts at 5/4

Uran to beat Nibali, Pinot to beat Nieve, Contador to beat Quintana - 2pts on the treble at 7/4 with Bet365

 

 

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Terminillo

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Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Rieto to Porto Sant'Elpidio

Monday March 16th, 210km

A dramatic last 15kms today saw Nairo Quintana put all-comers to the sword with a superb attack, to not only take the stage but to also put himself in a very strong position now to take the overall. The latest betting after today's stage puts him the 1/25 favourite to win, from 8/1 pre-race. Bauke Mollema rode brilliantly today to leave Contador and Co. behind and go in pursuit, he has jumped up the GC, from 7th to 2nd place, 39" behind Quintana. Uran has put himself in with a good shot at the podium with a strong finish today to take 4th place, and he now sits in 3rd place, 9 seconds ahead of Pinot in 4th.

Contador was disappointing today. He seemed to wave some riders through at one point which was like a green light for Quintana to attack.. When he did, Contador was caught too far back in the group and was unable to react as quick as he should. And even then when he tried to react, he didn't have his usual explosiveness and was just not able to escape from the others, who seemed more interested in marking him than helping to catch Quintana. Pinot gave it all he had but also didn't have the power to go after Quintana. But that was a big statement from Quintana. There were question marks and doubts about his race fitness, but if that's what he's like if unfit then he's in for a hell of a year. JVDB rode well but finished 4 places behind Niemiec to spoil that matchbet, only for that I'd have finished more or less flat. Instead a 4.1pt loss..    

With the big finish of Stage 5 out of the way this stage is a rolling affair that sees them mostly descend back towards the coast. There are a couple of lumps to get over along the way and the profile is perfect for a strong breakwaway group, but it's likely that the GC leader's team will look to control things and keep it together, unless the break contains no threat to the GC. 

As they arrive at the finish town of Porto Sant'Elpidio they start on two laps of a 14.4kms circuit, a circuit which contains a little lump at 2.9% average for 1500m with 7kms to go. The finish is almost dead flat as they are on the coastline and the only danger really are the two sharp right hand turns they need to make with just over 1km to go as they double back on themselves to head to the finish on the beachfront. I expect it to be a sprinters finish, but with some tired legs after the tough stage the day before, the break may make it. 

The rain and cold will continue tomorrow and they will have a cross-wind and head-wind for a lot of the stage. When on the finishing circuit they will have a tail wind on the stretch heading up to the U-turn with 1600m to go and then a head-wind for the finishing straight. 

It should end in a sprint tomorrow I think, too many teams will want to try to get something out of the race and it's the last road stage of the race, with the TT the next day. Mark Cavendish is the 5/4 favourite for the stage with Paddy Power, he's 10/11 with Bet365. Cav caused the crash which brought down Viviani on stage 2 and will be desperate to make amends. He was not feeling so good at the start of the race, but may have recovered by now, as long as the climbing in the frozen temperatures today didn't take too much out of him. If he is feeling better, and he hasn't suffered too much today then that looks a bet that has to be taken. 

His biggest rival possibly for a sprint like this, Elia Viviani has gone home, as has Matteo Pelucchi. Quick-Step still have a full squad with him and in Martin, Terpstra, Vermote and Renshaw he has the best lead-out left in the race. They will probably take him through the U-turn bend with 1600m to go in 2nd or 3rd wheel and Renshaw should launch him at the 200m mark. That's what should happen in theory anyway!

Challengers? Mr second place, Peter Sagan will be up there, but can he beat Cavendish? I don't think so.. He should be right up there though but I don't think he will be able to get past the E-QS train and will not have the speed to come around and past Cav.

Sam Bennett is 3rd favourite at 10/1 - the 50/1's on him are long gone now! He suffered a lot today on the climb to Terminillo in the cold and wet, he had Huzarski, Konrad and Dempster to look after him all day and ensure he finished within the time limit, so they must fancy his chances tomorrow. He is canny, he is clever, he is brave in a sprint and I wouldn't be surprised if he was sat right on Cavendish's wheel as he is launched with 200m to go - he may even try to get first jump on him and do a long sprint like he did in Qatar. I hope he isn't affected too much by the tough stage today, as I think he is well capable of a top 3, and if Cav is still under the weather, he might well beat him.

Alexander Porsev has sprinted well this year but has yet to break in to the top 3, taking three 4th places and a 6th place. He looks a bit short to me at 12/1 with PP, the 20/1 with Ladbrokes is a bit more tempting. Luca Mezgec was ruing being brought down in the Viviani crash on Stage 2, he was going well and could have taken a good placing. There were worries that he was not 100% on that stage and that the team would ride for Arndt if so, but he must have been feeling good as he was their sprint man in the end. They came here with the sprint train to help Kittel win stages, as I said on stage 2, so let's see how they do tomorrow against the E-QS boys. They tend to start their leadout too early sometimes though so they may have nothing left when it comes to the last 500m.

Jens Debusschere won the sprint on Stage 2, but of course that was helped by the chaos that had ensued behind. He was very strong in the sprint though, holding off Sagan, and he could well top 5 it again tomorrow. I'm not prepared to risk that he'll get in the top 3 though. Tyler Farrar has his whole squad with him still and with the likes of EBH, Goss, Cummings and co. he has a decent lead-out.. What isn't certain though is whether they give the young sprinter Sbaraglli a chance tomorrow, so I'm going to pass on him. 

That's all I can see really getting involved in the podium battle, Modolo, Navardauskas, Cort etc - they will be 5th to 10th at best I think. This looks like a penalty kick given the opposition, but at the prices I'm going to have savers on Bennett and Mezgec. 

Recommendations: 

3pts win on Mark Cavendish at 5/4 with PP

1pt each-way on Sam Bennett at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Luca Mezgec at 14/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Cavendish to beat Modolo, Renshaw to beat Dempster - 2pts on the double at evens with Bet365

Bennett to beat Debusschere - 2pts at 8/11

 

 

 

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Stage 6 

Stage 6 - San Benedetto Del Tronto

Tuesday March 17th, 10km

What a poor result today, absolutely nothing went right on a horribly cold and wet day again and I had my worst result in quite a while.. Just as things were starting to go well too - the last two days have not been very nice in Tirreno.. Bennett was strong enough to stay in the pack going over the climb 80kms from the finish, but had no energy at the finish to contest the sprint and finished 8th. Looks like he didn't recover enough from the cold the day before when he was hauled up the hill by Zak Dempster. Cavendish fared even worse, he was dropped on the little climb 80kms from the finish and came home a long way behind the winners. 

Peter Sagan finally took his first win of the season, sprinting powerfully ahead of 2013's Milan San Remo winner Gerald Ciolek and Jensdebus. Magnus Cort Nielsen sprinted to an impressive 4th but Nik Arndt failed to take advantage of the absence of Luca Mezgec at the finish, finishing out of the podium spots in 8th.

The final stage - a 10kms TT. This could be just a formality, a lap of honour, depending on how the GC looks after stage 5, but it could just as easily be that there are only a handful of seconds in it and we could see a thrilling battle for the victory on the streets of San Benedetto del Tronto. As it turns out, it does look like a procession for Nairo Quintana, he has a very safe-looking lead of 39" to Mollema and 48" to Uran. 

This course is dead flat and almost a dead straight out and back route - they make a u-turn with exactly 5kms gone, the half-way point. It is one for the pure power men though, long, straight, flat stretches with almost no turns or obstacles other than street furniture to overcome. The one thing to watch out for though could be the winds coming in off the Adriatic sea, if they blow up they could have strong cross-winds both out and back, or possibly a head-wind for the opening 5kms and a tail-wind on the way back. 

It looks like this stage is between two men - the same top two that were split by less than a second on the first stage, Malori and Cancellara. Malori came out on top in the prologue by less than one second, as Cancellara bemoaned afterwards "to be honest todays prologue was a kind of disaster for me. short prolog with lot of mistake. to win doesn't allow mistake's" (SIC!)

Since then, Malori has disappeared in to the pack, helping out where needed though to look after Quintana, but Cancellara has been a lot more prominent as he prepares for MSR, taking 5th in the uphill sprint in Arezzo. Malori is the evens favourite for the stage and he is very confident of a big result. He said today that he wants to 'close the race of the two seas in the best possible way' and that it will be a tough battle but he thinks he will beat him again. He also added that he doesn't think there are any others that can come close - "tomorrow will be a duel between the two of us"

And I think I have to agree - I think Malori will have the upper hand again and should win by 5" or so. Cancellara should be 2nd and the rest should be battling for third place again. Is there any value in backing Malori to win at the prices he is? He is best price 6/5 with BetVictor, as short as 8/11 with Ladbrokes. He is the most likely winner and if are happy to take a price around evens, then you should take it I think. 

Cancellara should be second but is no each-way price at 5/2, and is 1/5 to finish in the top 3, again a no bet. So who finishes 3rd? Well I think it can be reduced down to a short-list of Sergent, Cummings, Bodnar and Brandle. Uran should put in a good time versus Contador and Quintana but he won't be troubling the podium. 

Jesse Sergent posted a poor time in the prologue to finish way down in 23rd place, 11" down on Malori. That prologue was maybe on the short side for him and this TT at 10kms is more suited to him. Steve Cummings has riden extremely well this week to sit in 9th place overall and a good TT tomorrow could lift him maybe 4 places in the GC up to 5th. I think he will do a great ride tomorrow as he definitely has far more motivation than the other favourites for the stage. 

The big problem we have though is that some of the bookies have taken the cowardly route again here and are only offering 1/4 the odds each-way for the first two, not three which you would expect. So basically, if you fancy any of the rest to break in to the top 3, you have to hope they finish 2nd in order to get a payout. The only bookie offering top 3 each-way is BetVictor, so if you can get on with them, the 16/1 on Cummings is worth a bet I think. It's better than taking the 7/4 with Bet365 that he finishes in the top 3. 

Maciej Bodnar and Matthias Brandle both did great prologues, finishing milliseconds apart from each other in 4th and 5th place and I think they will be in similar positions tomorrow. Brandle opened at 66/1 with PP and I was teeing up a bet as soon as I saw that around 5pm and in the time it took me to put the bet in the betslip they had already cut him to 33/1 which wasn't as attractive. He is now 40/1 which is a bit tempting, but I'm thinking 4th + again for him. Bodnar was in 2nd place behind Malori with 22 riders left to finish in the prologue but slipped down 2 places by the time it's over. I think we could see something similar this time. 

There's not a lot of options really then for tomorrow, I think Malori wins again and Cummings might offer some value at 16/1 each-way to finish in the top 3 so he can move in to the top 6. Jonathan Castroviejo has been time trialling well this year, he seems to have got in the groove again. He finished 6th in the 19kms TT in the Algarve and 11th in the prologue, beating Uran by 2". I think he is capable of beating him again in their match-bet at 10/11

Recommendations: 

2pts win on Adriano Malori at evens with BetVictor (the 6/5 is gone..)

0.5pts each-way on Steve Cummings at 16/1 with BetVictor

Matchbets:

Cummings to beat Bodnar at 4/6 - 1.2pts

Castroviejo to beat Uran - 2.2pts at 10/11

 

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