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- Published on Tuesday, 17 February 2015 23:03
Wednesday February 18th to Sunday February 22nd
The organisers of the Vuelta a Andalucia, or the Ruta del Sol as it's more commonly known, must have been pinching themselves when Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome announced they would be taking to the start line this year. Unfortunately a crash in the road nationals for Quintana means we are denied the chance of seeing the three tops guns battling it out for early season supremacy.
The race will see Contador and Froome renew their fierce rivalry very early in the season, following on from their last big battle at the Vuelta a Espana, which Contador won by 1'10". It should be the first of many battles which should include the Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour de France, but Contador is scheduled to do the Giro whereas Froome is heading to the Vuelta.
This race has managed to survive where many other races across Europe, and Spain in particular have fallen by the wayside in recent years due to economic difficulties. It's a testament to the organisers, their sponsors and the terrain around them that this race not only competes with the big-money races in the deserts of the middle-east, but actually attracts the top two stage racers in the world (and would have been arguably the top 3 if Quintana hadn't crashed in Colombia).
It's a great race for variety though and it's like a mini Grand Tour with the program for the week. They have a short Time Trial and short sprint stage on a split day one, some stages for the puncheurs and some really hard climbs to get over too. Contador has been training hard in Majorca, Froome in South Africa, as is their way, and it will be interesting to see if one is ahead of the other at this point in the season. Contador has been playing down his chances although he does say that he is very happy with how his training has gone and how his form is.
Alejandro Valverde won this for the last three years, but with him taking on the Tour of Oman this year for a change, there will be a new name on the trophy. In fact, last year's runner-up Richie Porte and 3rd place Luis Leon Sanchez are absent also.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar | 18h 47min 45s |
| 2 | Richie Porte | Sky | at 31s |
| 3 | Luis Leon Sanchez | Caja Rural | at 33s |
The Route
The route takes them all over the province of Andalucia, stretching from Huelva in the west to Granada in the east, an area as big as Belgium apparently! There are plenty of hills to get over, hence the reason that Froome and Contador are here, but it's a very interesting and very varied course that should make an exciting race. The first day sees them tackle a short 118km stage that should take about 2 1/2 hours, but has several little lumps in the closing stages that may mean that it is a reduced bunch that sprints for the win. In the afternoon it will be the turn of the GC men to do battle for the first time, with an 8.2km individual time trial. The gaps shouldn't be too big, but as this is a race that could be won by very small margins, it will be an important psychological blow whoever takes the upper hand.
Stage 2 is the second longest stage of the race at nearly 192kms, and it's quite a rolling stage up until the main event of the day, the climb of Alto de la Primera Crux which comes inside the last 10kms. Once over the top, any attackers only have a 6km descent to hang on for victory. Stage 3 sees the first of the two back-to-back summit finishes with the climb up to Alto Hazallanas. With it hitting 18% in parts, the last around 3kms to go, this should be where the stage winning move should come.
Stage 4 has a brutally sharp finish, hitting 20% in parts and whoever leads at the end of this stage will more than likely hold on to it until the end. Stage 5 is a very rolling stage but should end in a bunch sprint, although it is an uphill pull to the line which will make it a bit tough for the pure sprinters.
Stage 1a
Stage 1a - La Rabida to Hinojos
Wednesday, February 18th, 118.3km
This stage kicks things off with a nice short 118km trip in the morning but it's not exactly easy with several lumps to get over in the last 40kms or so, including an uphill pull to the finish in Hinojos. The first 60kms or so are along the coast where there could be some splits, but with the time trial in the afternoon it may not be too aggressive and we are likely to see a bunch sprint, or possibly a reduced sprint given the lumpy last 40kms.
That uphill finish of course will suit the likes of Degenkolb and JJ Lobato, both of which have shown what they are capable of already this season. Lobato has kept up his good form since his great stage win in the TDU, taking a number of top 5 places in Dubai. He showed in TDU that he has a great finishing kick on a finish like this and is sure to be involved.
John Degekolb pulled off one of the most impressive results for me yet this year with his explosive burst up the Hatta Dam in Dubai. He is a very strong sprinter on any sprints that are uphill and he is the worthy favourite for the stage, albeit a little short looking at 6/4 or so. Moreno Hofland has promised a lot but not really delivered a great deal, but this sort of finish is right up his street. I don't know if I can trust him at just 10/1 though. Tyler Farrar is in good shape at the moment and he could get involved at 14/1, he took a good 2nd place in a stage of the Herald Sun Tour recently behind Caleb Ewan.
Two that stand out though at big prices are Grega Bole and Pim Ligthart at 33/1. Bole was sprinting well at the Tour of Dubai and took a good 7th place on the Hatta dam. He was also 8th in the Classic Almeria and 8th in a race in Majorca and he might like this finish. Pim Ligthart took an impressive win in the Grand Prix Marseillaise a few weeks back, on a lumpy course which ended in a messy, uphill sprint. It could be similar tomorrow and he could well be to the fore again.
Recommendations:
2pts win on John Degenkolb at 6/4 with Skybet
0.3pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 33/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Grega Bole at 33/1 with Bet365
Route Map
Stage 1b
Stage 1b - Coria del Rio
Wednesday, February 18th, 8.2km
A short but tricky TT awaits the riders over the 8200m course. There are lots of bends and two tricky little climbs to get over so it may be hard to put the real power down. There's a big difference in Froome's prices, from as low as 13/8 with Paddy Power to 5/2 with Bet365, and that's probably because a) it's hard to know just how well he'll go in his first test and b) he might find this course quite tricky and may not be able to get in to the rhythm he'd like to.
Bob Jungels could be a big danger to him and the 9/2 on him is interesting me as I think he should have a strong chance of a top 3 place. He easily took the TT over 12kms in Besseges, winning by 19" but it wasn't exactly full of time trialling talent.. Nonetheless, that experience will have given him a real shot of confidence and I can see him pushing Froome all the way tomorrow.
Sylvain Chavanel likes a street-fighter circuit like this and has said recently that he really wants to start to impose himself as a time triallist, as he put it, he is the French time trial champion after all.. I can see him also going well here but 6/1 is a bit short for me. Stephen Cummings is a real power horse that loves these kinds of tests. He is obviously in good shape and good spirits after getting out of BMC, winning a great race in Majorca, mugging Valverde. I'm worried that he might find this one a bit tough for him as it will be hard for him to put down the big power.
Alberto Contador is capable of putting up a good time, especially over a short test like this, he is capable of a top6 here I think, especially with what's at stake with Froome. Jesse Sergent could be another that could cause an upset, the young Kiwi took a brilliant 2nd place in the short 9.7km TT in the Vuelta last year and generally did very well over shorter distance TTs last year.
After that it could be anyone, but it's unlikely we will see any surprises in the top 6 from outside those mentioned above. Thomas Ludviggson maybe at a big looking 50/1.
I think though that Jungels might win it by a very small margin from Froome, who will be followed by Sergent, Chavanel, Cummings and Contador, in no particular order, but possibly in that order!
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Bob Jungels at 9/2 with Bet365 (in my haste I forgot they were not offering each way so have 1pt win at 4/1 and 1pt at 10/11 to come in top 3.. they've cut him already..)
0.5pts each-way on Jesse Sergent at 12/1 with Betvictor
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Utrera to Lucena
Thursday February 19th, 191.7km
What a crazy start to this race then! A massive crash, caused by a careless Kiryienka and an inattentive AG2R rider with 4km to go of stage 1a has seen many, many riders out of the race contention already, with lots of injured and battered bodies struggling during stage 1b's TT. Geniez has gone home, Frank Schleck has gone home, Blel Kadri has gone home and there could be more pull out when they wake up stiff and sore tomorrow morning.
It was a great start for me though with Pim Ligthart surprising everyone and jumping away to win the stage and land the 33/1. Not only that, Grega Bole sprinted to 3rd place to land the place money at 33/1 also. Degenkolb struggled back in 11th, looks like he was isolated and outmanouevered. Froome, Contador and Jungles avoided the carnage, Bauke Mollema wasn't so lucky, he lost 46".
Then in the afternoon we had another shock when Javi Moreno surprised all the TT men to win by 2" from Wilko Kelderman, who shook off the crash to put in a very good ride. Jungels was good, but just not good enough, missing out on the podium by just 2". Mollema lost more time and is now 125/1 to win the overall after a majorly disappointing opening day. The good news for now is that my 66/1 shot Jungels is sitting in 2nd place, on the same time as Contador who takes an early lead in the race and is now just 1/2 to win the overall.
Chris Froome was a disappointment in the TT after doing well to avoid the carnage in the crash for once.. He has lost 8" to Contador already, but remains the 2nd favourite at 9/2 with Skybet, a price that is looking a little tempting from an each-way 'bet to nothing' point of view, he is likely to be on the podium you'd think.. Or was the 8" loss just a little flash that he may not be in as good shape as Contador and others are? We'll soon find out, but you'd have to think he'll fight back and if a battle ensues between the two of them they might leave all others trailing in their wake..
Stage 2 is an east-to-west run that sees them rise gently from the start, climbing a gentle 400m over 100kms. They then hit a plateau for a while before a little descent to the 150km mark, where there is a short and sharp climb to get over, a prelude to the final climb of the day. The climb to Alto de la Primero Crux drags up for almost 25kms, but the official climb is a 3rd Category ranking, at 6.5% for 2.5kms, so not too tough. With the finish line coming just 6kms from the top though it should be the launching pad for the stage winning move and we may see a reduced group, or maybe even a solo victory. The last 1.3kms are uphill, averaging around 2.4%, so even if the sprinters get over the climb, the finish may rule some of them out.
One thing that clouds the picking process though is knowing just how battered and bruised everyone is. We may pick someone only to find out at the end of the stage that they rode in terrible pain with an injured X or Y. The first odds that are out are a bit of a reflection of that I think, all the strong guys from today who avoided the crash are near the top of the betting. Pim Ligthart was very impressive today I thought, his attack was very clever and he powered away from them all the way to the finish. I wouldn't be surprised to see him try something similar again tomorrow as he clearly is in great shape and is fit and healthy! But the 7/1 with BetVictor first show isn't exactly tempting.. The 14/1 with Ladbrokes and 17/1 with Bet365 is a lot better though!
Favourite for the stage is John Degenkolb but seeing as he couldn't get closer than 11th today in a stage that a lot of people thought he would win, I'm not all that interested in the short 5/2 on him given there is that climb to get over. Grega Bole also showed he has great legs by sprinting to 3rd today, he could well be a big danger again tomorrow, but 6/1 BetVictor?? Seriously?? Ladbrokes have opened at 12/1 and Bet365 at 14/1 which is a bit better.
JJ Lobato came down in the crash today and suffered a cut to his head as well as bruises to his body so it's hard to know how he'll go tomorrow after a nights sleep. I'm passing the 7/2 that he's available at for that reason. Moreno Hofland has posted a picture tonight of his leg with a deep wound just above his knee with the exclamation 'Damn Chainrings' - for that reason, I'm out!
Tyler Farrar sprinted to a good 5th today and may be one to get over that climb with the leaders. Arthur Vichot and Daniel Ratto likewise but they're not grabbing me either. In fact, there's very few that really appeal to me, but one that could give it a go over the final climb and descent is Sylvain Chavanel. He escaped the crash, sprinted to 13th place and then rode to 13th place in the TT, just 14" off the winner. At 28/1 he offers a bigger price to get stuck in to at least. Jelle Vanendert looks big at 100/1 as does Jan Bakelants at 66/1 with Ladbrokes but they both finished way down the field today so could have been hurt in the crash.
It's very hard to pick a winner of this one though given everything I've said above. I think I'll stick with Pim though as he looks in great form and I can play up some winnings on him at the 17/1. Chavanel is a win only bet just for an interest, not a stage to get too heavily involved in I think.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 17/1 with Bet365
0.5pts win on Sylvain Chavanel at 28/1 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Motril to Alto de Hazanas Llanas
Friday February 20th, 157.6km
So Lobato shook off a head injury and bruising to sprint to an impressive stage win today, diving up the right hand side of the road and gaining a jump on Degenkolb. I'm glad I left Deggers alone though as he was well beaten once again by Lobato's long jump. Grega Bole showed what great form he is in again with another 3rd place, I picked the wrong one of my two winners from stage 1. Chavanel gave it a go down the hill with 7km to go, but didn't get very far..
Unfortunately for Bob Jungels he punctured on the descent and as the car was stuck behind stragglers on the hill it took a long time to get to him. He lost 46" and tumbled from 1st to 17th place, which is a real shame as it would have been fun to see how he did for the rest of the week.
Stage 3 sees them face their first tough mountain challenge with the climb up to Alto de Hazas LLanas. The first 20kms are flat as they skirt along the coast, but then they turn inland and start climbing straight away up the 1st Cat climb of the Puerta de la Cabra, a long climb at over 26kms. It averages only 4.6% but it's length is sure to see many of those lacking in fitness go out the back door pretty early in the stage. They then head west first and loop around the Embalse de Los Bermejales lake and on over the next climb of the day, the 2nd Cat Alto Del Lucero, 5kms at 6.3%. They then descend a little before heading north-east for 70kms, but they stay at around 800m in altitude.
The final climb to the Alto de Hazas LLanas is a two-stage climb, with the first part relatively easy, around the 7% average for the first 8kms. They then descend a little before tackling the hard final section - 8kms at over 10%, but there are some really steep parts (hitting 18%) before easing to 7% for the last 2kms. The climb was used in the 2013 Vuelta when Chris Horner won to help set up his overall victory.
This is the first real test then between the two top dogs.. and the betting almost makes it like a match bet between the two of them with Contador favourite at 5/4 and Froome at 11/4, giving it an over 70% chance of one of the two of them winning. Still that leaves a 30% chance that there could be a surprise.. Is it possible? I personally think that Contador will take this stage tomorrow and stretch his lead in the overall too. He is looking fitter, stronger, friskier and more agressive than Froome from what I've seen so far. He rode a great TT and showed today that he has good legs and wanted to show it.. his little attack in the last few kms didn't really go anywhere, but it made Sky worry for a moment.
He should be delivered by the strong looking T-S team to a point where he can attack on the steeper slopes with 3-4kms to go and there may not be many can go with him. I think he will drop Froome, but then again it's hard to know just how well Froome is going, but to lose that much time in the TT suggests he is not at the level he may need to be to be able to go after Bertie, he struggled to do that when much fitter in the Vuelta..
So who else could challenge Contador? Well, it's wide open. Wilko Kelderman could go well at 14/1 and a lot is expected of him. Romain Bardet was active today and if he has reasonably good legs you would expect him to be near the front as they hit the tough parts of the climb. At 16/1 he might offer a good each-way shot to chase home Contador. Bauke Mollema has time to make up though and didn't come down in the crash, he tweeted that he "stopped just in time". He admitted to having good legs in Murcia and flew up that final climb. I think at 25/1 he is very big for tomorrow and is worth backing each-way.
Tim Wellens is only 18/1 with Bet365 but is 50/1 with BetVictor, 50/1 is maybe worth backing if you fancy him. Rodolfo Torres is one I'm looking forward to seeing how he goes tomorrow. Second overall in San Luis, winner of the KOM jersey and top 3 on 3 stages, he should like this finish. As long as he can hang in there long enough when the pace will be high until it gets really steep then he has a chance of a big ride. At 28/1 he's also worth a small interest.
I think Contador wins though and must be backed, but I'm having a few small each-way bets as well on some big priced runners who could go well.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Alberto Contador at 5/4 with Bet365
0.4pts each-way at 25/1 on Bauke Mollema with Bet365
0.3pts each-way at 28/1 on Rodolfo Torres with Bet365
Match bet double: Nieve to beat Basso (4/9) and Contador to beat Froome (8/13) - 2pts at 1.33/1
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Maracena to Alto de Las Allanadas
Saturday February 21st, 199.8km
Not too much of a preview today I'm afraid as I'm going out tonight to celebrate my birthday..! Sorry!
A fantastic performance by Contador today. I was right about how well he is looking and how his team would deliver him, Basso and Valgren and co were magnificent and even cars and motorbikes getting in their way couldn't stop him when he took off with nearly 10kms to go when the road kicked up again. He got a gap and there was no sign of Froome. But he fought his way back and Kennaugh was brilliant to help him get back to around 28" and looked to be closing. But Contador never looked in trouble, or even in the red - he only eased a little in the last 500m
With Mollema not starting due to suffering from Diarrhoea, we got the stakes back on that bet. Contador did the business to land 5pts profit and with Nieve powering up the climb to finish 5th from being at the back of the bunch due to a mechanical starting the last climb the match-bet double also landed at 1.33/1. The Torres bet lost, but it looked for a while at the bottom he was with the chasing group containing Kennaugh and co but must have disappeared. Still, a nice 5.7pt profit on the day.
Tomorrow's stage is equally tough - the longest of the week at almost 200kms. There are 3 little Cat 3 bumps to get over along the way but the climax is again a real leg-breaker with the first Cat climb up the Alto de Las Allanadas. They start climbing up towards the final climb with a full 50kms to go with several little hills to get over along the way. But the main event is quite short at just 4.5kms but is a nasty 10.5% average, with the final 200m at 11.5%.
Based on today's result it's hard to see past Contador but I would imagine he'll be odds-on after today, something like 4/6.. But will he put himself in to the red again so early in the season? He doesn't need to be agressive now, the GC battle is probably safe, he just needs to defend. But as we saw today, Bertie loves to race to win. He just can't help himself.. he attacked as soon as the road went up because he felt it was right, and just kept going. It may be that he can't help himself again tomorrow and will want to put the race to bed and really hammer a nail in to Froome's RDS coffin..
I will try to update this again later tonight when I see some prices, drunkness permitting!! I have another rider I'd like to back but I'll have to wait to see what price he'll be..
Recommendations:
I'll try to post a few picks late tonight or early tomorrow, but the likely winner is Contador, but his price will probably be too short..
Update: 00:09 - so, as expected, Contador is odds on, around the 10/11 mark. He probably will dance away from them all and I'm tempted to let the full 9 points from today ride on him, but I'm not sure what his motivation or indeed team orders might be.
The rider I was hoping to back was Mikel Nieve, I thought he did brilliantly today. I couldn't believe he finished 5th on the stage, I had to check a few sources to make sure. As they approached the final climb he was just coming back from a mechanical and was dead last in the peloton and almost struggling to hang on. The fact he rode past about 40 guys to take 5th in the last 6kms or so shows he has great climbing lfact
The fact Froome knows he is now racing for second place might free up Nieve to go on the attack tomorrow and try and salvage a stage victory from the race. Sky have only Viviani as a race winner this year, not a great return.. He is as short as 12/1 3rd favourite bit there is 18/1 with Bet365 and that's worth a bet each-way I think.
There were so many guys today who were blown away by Contador and Froome that it's hard to make a case for anyone else. Romain Bardet came closest today but he was 1'39" behind Contador. Intxausti, Kelderman and Nieve were around 2 minutes back. It's hard to see any of them escape from the powerful T-S squad and hold off Bertie. But maybe Nieve can slip the net as Bertie just watches Froome, he's my only bet for tomorrow.
Recommendations
1pt each-way on Mikel Nieve at 18/1
Route Map
Profile
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Montilla to Alhaurin de la Torre
Sunday February 22nd, 169.8km
What an incredible turnaround from Chris Froome today. Sky softened up Contador on the steep lower slopes and then Froome just turned on the after-burners.. He got 5", it became 10".. close to the finish it was nearly 20".. could he possibly take back the 27" deficit he had at the start of the day? Surely not... but yes.. incredibly, by the time Contador crossed the finish line he was 28"behind and Froome took over the red jersey by just 2"!
My man Nieve held on to take 3rd place, showing he was the best of the rest again today, to add 3.5pts profit on the stage. Szmyd, Intxausti, Kelderman and Van den Broeck were next, Van den Broeck starting to show good legs which is interesting.
But this race is far from over - tomorrow's stage is a rolling affair, but is generally pretty flat as they head towards the coast. From around the 108km mark, when they get over the only categorised climb of the day, it's then mostly downhill for the next 40kms or so as they head to the coast. Then it's around 20kms on the flat before the final kick up to the finish at Alhaurin de la Torre.
The final kilometre averages over 7%, but it's a climb of three sections you could say - first, 600m at 2.8%, which is nice and easy. Then suddenly it hits nearly 21% for 300m, a savage finale to the stage.. the last 200m flattens out again though but if someone has got a little gap on the steep section they should probably hold on. A break could well make it tomorrow, neither Sky or Tinkoff-Saxo may be interested in chasing all day, they are just interested in their leaders beating each other now. So who will it be up to to chase? Giant-Alpecin, IAM, Movistar.. and they may just have enough power to pull it back in time for a battle royale up that last kilometre.
It's going to be a fascinating finish though - 2" is nothing and this race could be turned on it's head again. It will be a drag race to the finish up the final 500m between Froome and Contador. The race should be decided by whoever can find one last surge of power. At the end of stage 3 you'd have had to say it would have been Contador finding the power, but after today you'd have to say Froome is the one in the ascendancy. Will they be the front two battling it out again or will we see a break slip the net today? It is possible if Tinkoff-Saxo and Sky decide to just neutralise each other and wait until the finish.. As long as the break are not too dangerous to the GC they may hold off the peloton. Froome and Contador are only interested in who beats the other at the finish, although of course they'd like to do it by winning the stage too..
But given that this is not at the end of a hard 5km climb, and instead is a little drag for 600m followed by 300m at 21%, it will bring a lot more riders in to the fray than just Contador and Froome. 300m at 21% is a little bit like the Hatta Dam and we saw what happened there - a 'sprinter', John Degenkolb won from Valverde and Lobato. Degenkolb is 7/2 with PP and that is sure to have a lot of takers, if he can get in a similar sort of position as he got in to in Dubai he has a real chance. I'm worried though that this will be an incredibly messy finish with all sorts of riders attacking from all sorts of places - on the easier first part, at the bottom of the steep 20% section, others will wait until closer to the top of the steep section and others will just hold in there hoping to win it in a sprint on the final 200m. Deggers might be swamped and find himself isolated and I'm not all that keen in him at that price.
JJ Lobato is 9/4 with PP but only evens with Bet365. Evens is too short, but you can see why he would be fancied. Movistar have a really good squad here and have lots of guys who should be able to look after him and drag him close to the finish to allow him to sprint to the win. Intxausti should be safe enough in 3rd place on the GC, he has 20" on Nieve, so he could well power up the steep bit with Lobato in tow and release him with 200m to go.
Grega Bole, my pal from stage 1 is still riding really well and showed on the Hatta Dam that he can do well on a finish like this. Apparently he was 40/1 earlier but I missed that but the 20/1 with PP is worth a look, he is only 14s with Bet365. Froome and Contador are big prices around 18/1 but they have their own battle to be worrying about tomorrow, I don't think they will get away at the head of the race, but seeing how they have left everyone else trailing in their wake in the last two days you couldn't put it past them.
Hofland is still injured after getting stabbed with a chainring in the big crash on stage 1. Wilko Kelderman has said he is still working towards the classics so may not be 100% yet and might be done the field a little here tomorrow. Jelle Vanendert might like this finish, he does well on climbs like this, and seems to be getting better as the week has gone on, he finished a decent 18th today. The 33/1 might be worth an interest. Wellens, Bardet, Vichot, Gasparotto, Nieve, Ratto and Kudus could all be involved, but it will be all about positioning really and anyone of about 40 guys could come out on top here. Someone with an experienced head like Vanendert who has twice finished 2nd in Amstel Gold and 4th and 6th (twice) in Flech-Wallone could be in the right place at the right time.
One final guy who might be worth a small bet is Sylvain Chavanel - he has said today that he is getting better day by day and with the climb at the finish he fancies his chances, and they are going to give it a go. With that in mind, I'd hate to be sitting there watching the last kilometre and to see Chavanel skip away and I not have anything on him at the big price of 100/1 with Bet365.
As for the overall? Froome just has to sit on Contador's wheel.. I wouldn't be surprised to see Contador take 2" off him if the climb stopped at the top of the steep part, but with 200m on a flatter gradient, Froome could drag himself back to him again if Contador had got a small advantage. Incredibly, Contador has gone from 1/20 this morning to win to 7/2 now, with Froome in from 6/1 to 2/7 now. Let battle commence..
Recommendations:
2pts win on JJ Lobato at 9/4 with Paddy Power
0.3pts e/w on Sylvain Chavanel at 100/1 with Bet365
0.5pts e/w on Grega Bole at 20/1 with PP
0.2pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 33/1 with Bet36
Route Map
Profile
Overall Contenders and Favourites
What a fantastic race we have in prospect here. It's a pity it comes so early in the season though as me won't see the top two fully fit and fully wound up for this early battle. Having said that though they both come here in the back of some seriously hard training blocks and all reports are they are going very well.
And you can be sure that they will both be fired up and eager to lay down that early season marker with a good victory. Chris Froome, we know from his victories in Oman for the last two years, always starts his seasons well. Alberto Contador likewise tends to start well and enters every race to win it, he doesn't like getting beat, especially by his greatest rival.
It's almost a coin toss between the two of them in the betting too, they are both around 6/4, with Froome slightly edging it at 13/8 best with Contador 2/1 best. I find it really hard to separate them and if I really had to pick one, I think I'd side with Contador. He is reportedly flying in training and he really wants to kick off his season by getting one over Froome. With him announcing his retirement in 2016 just this week, his mind is now focused on winning as much as possible so he can go out on a high. One of his big targets then is to become only the 7th man to ever win the Giro and the Tour in the same year, a feat last achieved by Marco Pantani.
In order to do so he needs to start the season well with a good showing here. He obviously won't be near full fitness with the Giro coming several months down the line, but he won't be holding back. I think he could start things in motion by attacking hard near the summit of the climb on stage 2 and then pushing Froome on the descent to the finish. He will probably lose 10-15" to Froome in the TT so he will need to start making time back quickly. I think they will come home together on stage 3 but the steeper slopes of stage 4 could well see him attack and gain time back on Froome. The parts hitting 20% will suit him a little more than Froome I think and he could claw back his 15" there.
Froome won't go down without a fight of course and will probably gain a nice little advantage as I say in the opening TT. So if you fancy Froome, I'd suggest backing him now as he should shorten tomorrow night. On the other hand, unless there is a major shock, Contador should lose some time and it may be worth waiting until tomorrow evening to back him at possibly a bigger price.
Bauke Mollema is the one to take them on I feel though, he has finished on the podium here in the past, 3rd in 2013 (6th in 2014). He has started his career with TFR with a bang and had a great race in Murcia Saturday where he was apparently the strongest man in the bunch at the latter part of the stage and outsprinted Zdenek Stybar in a crazy finish which was almost a disaster with a car parked more or less on the finish line.
He shouldn't lose too much time to Froome in the TT and with those two watching each other he may just be able to take advantage and slip up the road. Stage 2 should suit him well too and we could see some very agressive racing from him as he has some good miles in his legs already, including a good 4th in Majorca just behind Cummings and Valverde. At 141 he is worth siding with as he should have a good shot at the 3rd spot and may even pull off a 'shock'.
After that it is wide open - depending on how stages 3 and 4 go, there could be someone in there that could cause a surprise. Wilko Kelderman should be involved in the final groups on the big mountain stages, but it's hard to know how he will fare. He is likely to lose 20" or more though to Froome and is he capable of pulling that sort of time back against two of the best climbers in the world? I'm not sure. He will have his backers at 17/1, but not for me.
Steve Cummings is riding well and should go well in the TT, but 14/1 is too short for me too. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has been a favourite of mine for a long time now, but I don't know why, he keeps letting me down.. It would be typical if he was to win this at 28/1 and I wasn't on him. His time trialling is coming back to what it used to be and he can climb with the best on his day, but It is his season opener and he does tend to start slowly so I'll pass.
Romain Bardet also is starting his season here and I fear that he will lose too much time in the opening TT to be able to fight back against the top two in the hills. I think this will be a good prep race for him for other targets later in the spring. Benat Intxausti and Gorka Izagirre get a rare chance to lead the Movistar squad in the absence of their two superstars, and they could go well on the climbs. They will suffer in the TT though and will find it very hard to take sufficient time on the climbs. If it falls right for either of them one day though, you'd never know.
Daniel Navarro could go well as long as he is not too far behind after the first day, but one that interests me is Rodolfo Torres, the young Colombian riding for Team Colombia. He took the KOM jersey in the Tour de San Luis recently, taking two 2nd places and a 3rd place on stages along the way. After an indifferent 2014, he seems to have stepped it up this year and could surprise a few in the hills. He did pretty good in the ITT too, finishing in 14th, just 51" back from Malori so he could start well too. At 50/1 he is an outsider to cheer on this week.
There are so many others who could go well, but it's really hard to say - Nico Roche is there, but will be looking after Chris Froome. Bob Jungels recently won the Etoile de Besseges with a dominant display in the time trial and he could get his race off to a great start with a podium on Wednesday. He isn't the worst climber in the world either and if he is challenging he may work with Mollema to 1-2 the top two. If they give him too much rope while watching each other and Mollema, he could be gone.. 66/1 could be worth an interest.
So it's going to be a good race I think. There should be a battle right from the first day and there could be time nicked from each other with cheeky attacks, and time lost if not paying full attention. I think Contador will just shade it from Froome but will have to come from behind after the TT to do it. Bauke Mollema could be their biggest danger, but watch out for Torres and Jungels, the Movistar duo and Kelderman and Cummings.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each way on Bauke Mollema at 14/1 with BetVictor
0.4pts each way on Rodolfo Torres at 50/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Bob Jungels at 66/1 with Bet365
If you fancy Contador, might be worth waiting until Wednesday evening.
