Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Al Wakra to Al Khor Corniche

Monday, February 9th,  194.5 km

Well that wasn't an ideal start to the race was it now with Wiggo and Kittel both getting caught out by the splits and losing 33" each on the run to the finish. Kittel, I was worried about but Wiggo I thought would be more streetwise, he must have been caught too far down when someone left the wheels go. It proved once again though that this race may be flat and boring for the most part, but if you snooze for a moment you will get punished. 

Boonen and Sagan both hit the deck today in a small crash but were still streetwise enough to make the split and sprint to 2nd and 4th place. It was a powerful display from Etixx-Quickstep as was expected of them and it puts Boonen in a good position to take the GC now. But anything can happen yet. There's lot's of wind racing yet to be done.

Stage two sees the riders head north around the Capital City Doha and out in to the desert as they head towards Al Khor Corniche out on the eastern coast. The route changes direction multiple times over the last 30kms or so and they will face head, cross and tail winds as they head towards the finish.

At 194.5kms it's the longest stage of the race and we could see some echelons and splits in the latter part of the race. It's possible a break could make it today but with lots of strong wind forecast it's most likely to end in a sprint finish though. How many will be in that bunch that does sprint for the win is the question though - with a cross wind buffeting them from the 70km to the 35km to go mark we could see the likes of E-QS look to split things again. With 20kms to go they'll hit a strong headwind which will hinder any breakaway attempts. With 3.5kms to go they change direction again and it'll be a crosswind again before finally turning on to the finishing straight where it'll be a headwind once again.

With this being the longest stage of the race and with wind hitting them from all sides all day, there will be a lot of tired riders at the end of this stage. I expect splits again and we might see a similar sized bunch to today, around 50 guys, come to the line together. If G-A and Kittel ride like they did today, he won't be there, so his odds of 5/4 with Ladbrokes are pretty awful. 9/2 with Bet365 is a bit more like it, but even that is a little unappealing based on how he did today. Having said that, it was only with 20kms to go when the split came and he was up there until then. He did only lose 33", so wasn't that far off at all really. Giant-Alpecin are sure to ride the stage a bit smarter after that disaster today and looking at the slow sprint today, he must fancy his chances if he's in the mix. Their DS had even identified the spot as a danger spot but they were all too far back and only Tom Veelers made the split. I'm sure the DS will have given them a real bollicking about that cock-up and they are sure to be out to make amends tomorrow. 

You'd have been very confident if you were on Démare or Bouhanni today as they came inside the last 500m but Bouhanni really disappointed, whereas Démare blames a damaged derailleur which prevented him from getting in his 11 cog, caused by bumping in to someone in the sprint. That someone may have been Sam Bennett who got squeezed up on the inside as Démare swung across the road in the last 100m. He was boxed in and took him a while to get out but when he did get out he started to fly but it was too late. Very close in 5th to landing a tasty each-way at 50/1, but unlucky. It was good enough to win the match bet against Modolo though who was in Kittel's group 33" back. Cancellara won his match bet against Boom too so the day wasn't a total disaster.

Tom Boonen is sure to fancy his chances again tomorrow on a long stage like this, especially if his team put the hammer down again. 3/1 with Bet365 is way too short, 8/1 with Ladbrokes looks more interesting. Arnaud Démare is next in the betting around 6/1 and he sprinted well enough today to take 3rd. Not sure he would have got any closer though regardless of whether he could get in the 11 cog or not. Andrea Guardini disappointed though considering how well he has been sprinting, finishing back in 8th, again, if I'd backed him I'd have been expecting at least a place return as they hit the last kilometre. Tomorrow's stage is long and he tends to do better over shorter distances so I'll pass on him tomorrow. 

Alexander Kristoff rode well today but only managed 9th place in the sprint, tomorrow's longer stage should suit him a bit more though, he rides better the longer the race is. Whether he is good enough to outsprint all the fast guys that will be left is another question though. Heinrich Haussler was very prominent at the end of today's stage and sprinted to 7th and he should relish tomorrow's longer, tougher stage. At around 20/1 though it might be a bit tight - he might find 4 or 5 too fast for him again unless there is a really small selection is made in the closing kilometres. Peter Sagan likewise, sprinted well today and Tinkoff-Saxo looked strong for a lot of the race. I feel though he hasn't a win in him in these sprints, he may have to settle for a place again. 

So once again it is almost impossible to call how this one is going to go - it's likely to end in a sprint, but how many of the sprinters will be involved? Will Kittel be there? If he is, then I think the 9/2 looks a cracking price, he will love the headwind sprint. Can E-QS splilt things up enough to give Boonen an easy shot at the sprint? It's possible too. Can a break make it late on? If so, watch for Boom, Westra, Terpstra, Van Keirsbulck, Van Avermaet and the likes. Bora Argon looked very strong today, helping to make the split which detached Kittel and co and were pushing in the last 5kms too. If they can do similar tomorrow you'd have to give Bennett another chance if he can get a clearer run. At 40/1 I'm sticking with him again. I'm also going to take a chance on Kittel to come good, only because he is 9/2 and not 6/4 like for Stage 1. 

Recommendations: 

1pt win on Marcel Kittel at 9/2 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

Matchbets

Fabian Cancellara to beat Lars Boom - 1pt at 4/6 with Bet365

Haussler to beat Rojas - 1pt at 5/4 with Bet365

 

Route Map

 

 

  

 

Stage 3 

Stage 3 - Lusail Circuit ITT

Tuesday February 10th, 10.9kms

This could be the stage that decides the overall - it may be only 10.9kms but it could see big time differences between the powerful triallists and the sprinters. One thing to bear in mind though is that the differences might not be as great as normal as they do the time trial on standard road bikes, as they don't take their TT bikes over to the middle east with them. 

It should still see the likes of Wiggins and Cancellara put 20" or more in to the likes of Kittel and the other sprinters. Last year Michael Hepburn won by a half a second from Lars Boom, showing that this is a course suited to power triallists who can handle the changing wind conditions as they wind around the course. As the course is an out and back circuit that goes in four different directions they will face head winds and tail winds along the way. They are doing it in the opposite direction to last year, but it shouldn't really make such a difference, it'll be all about judging the wind and your effort over the course. 

Looking at the result last year it is clear to see that it really is a course for the strong, powerful types - Hepburn, Boom, Bennati, Cancellara, Terpstra.. We'll probably see similar this time around but it will be interesting to see how Wiggins copes on just a normal road bike compared to the high-tech Bolide he usually rides in time trials. 

Update, 09/02, 21:34

What a day today. It was hard to keep up with what was happening as the race was blown apart from almost the first kilometre. Jesper Stuyven described it as 'Brutal' and Luke Rowe described the neutral zone as one of the most nervous he has ever seen as the peloton all knew it was going to be full gas from the flag drop. Wiggins and Kittel were left in the dust again by the power of the Etixx-QS boys. I did say Kristoff would love a hard day like this, I'm annoyed I didn't have a bet on him at the price he was.. At least the two match bets came in again, Cancellara was way down the peloton, but not as bad as Boom who had a shockingly bad day, coming in almost dead last, 23 minutes down. Haussler rode really well again to finish in the front group, Rojas was way down the pack. So almost break even on the day..

First we'll take a look at tomorrow's time trial and then I'll have a look at the overal betting too.

Well Bradley Wiggins has well and truly let us down with his abysmal showing in the wind. He'll have to knuckle down between now and April if he thinks he's going to stay with the Boonen Boys over the windy roads of northern France. But here he is now, the 6/4 favourite for the stage.. Do we stick with him? Is that a price worth taking? He is evens, 11/10 and 10/11 with other bookies so the 6/4 is a nice premium on the average. I thought though from before this race started that he would win this and hopefully put himself at the top of the GC. That hasn't worked out, but what about his chances now after the two stages that we've seen? 

I reckon he had a rest day today.. All chance was lost yesterday, no point in busting a gut on what was a crazy and chaotic day. He rolled in in the 5th group over 9 minutes down. Although he hasn't coped well with the winds this week it's a different matter when fighting man to man solo, and he is usually pretty good in windy time trials, as we saw in the TOB in 2013 when winning on a wet and windy day.  He has pride to salvage here and I think he is a very strong favourite for the stage. 

When weighing up the opposition, I would have had Cancellara and Boom as his biggest rivals, but those two have had two tough days. Cancellara posted on Instagram tonight "Hard day in Qatar today. #windy #sandy #chaotic I am #kaputt !!" and that's two tough days he's had, looks like he is struggling to cope with the change from -14degs last week at home and +35degs today in Qatar! I think though that Brad has the beating of him on a course like this anyway, so with this in mind I put Brad 10" or so ahead of him. 

Lars Boom had a tough day yesterday but at least was active and involved, today he finished 23 minutes down in 3rd last place. I haven't seen any reasons or explanations as to what happened, whether it was a mechanical or illness something, but he seemed to be happy with how stage 1 had gone and there was no indication of illness or anything like that. Maybe he is paying for his efforts and all the travelling between Australia, Dubai and Qatar. He is still 6/1 second favourite for the stage and he did almost win it last year, but it's hard to know what to make of today. Was he also just 'sandbagging' it today? I don't know, therefore I'm going to leave him I think.

Maciej Bodnar is next in the betting at 12/1 with Ladbrokes (as low as 7/1 with BetVictor) and the Tinkoff-Saxo man showed today that he is in great shape at the moment by making the final selection of 15. He is a very good TTer, winning a TT over 14kms in the 3 days of de Panne last year and finished 2nd in the Polish time trial championships behind Kwiatkowski. I think though that he would have had a very hard day today, looking after Sagan and keeping him out of the wind, he might be tired after that effort but I still expect a really good ride by him - the GC is at stake after all!

Niki Terpstra needs to pull out a great ride tomorrow if he wants to take the lead. He sits 8" behind Kristoff and will need a decent lead over Kristoff, Guardini and Boonen going in to the final stages where they will probably pick up bonus seconds. He doesn't have the best TT in the world, in the TOB TT last year for example he finished 42" behind Wiggo over 8.8kms, but he did finish 5th here last year, only 2" behind Cancellara and 8" behind Hepburn. I think 5th to 10th is the best he can hope for tomorrow again. 

Ian Stannard is a real dark horse for this tomorrow, if the betting is anything to go by. He is available as big as 50/1 for the stage which is surprising.. he rode very well today and finished in the front group and wouldn't have had to do as much work as say the E-QS boys. He is a very powerful rider, especially in a brute test of strength like this - he did finish 11th here last year after all. I think he will be right up there as he is potentially fighting for the GC too here, he sits just 10" off the lead. Wiggins can be a good marker for him as he will be off much earlier than him, can provide info on wind direction and pacing. One thing to also bear in mind is the weather tomorrow - it is forecast to be the windiest day so far, but is also supposed to ease as the day goes on. So those starting later in the day may have a slight advantage over the earlier starters.

Sagan and Kittel are two sprinters who are also good over shorter TTs like this, but I think they will be 5th to 10th sort of level also tomorrow. Philippe Gilbert likewise.. It's also worth remembering that some riders will be taking it easy tomorrow as they know they will have a job to do in the coming days - Greg Van Avermaet for example is still in with a shout of victory, as is Marcus Burghardt so will Gilbert be asked to look after them in the coming days along with the rest of the team? 

Heinrich Haussler is doing very well so far, sitting in 8th overall, but he'll have to pull off the TT of his life to get in to the top 3 to get us a return on the 66/1 we have him at. He hasn't the best TT in the world it's fair to say, but he does look to be in the best shape he's been for several years. Lieuwe Westra could also go well but I'm not interested in him at 25/1.

Matthias Brandle could be a strong outsider for this TT too though. The former hour record holder is a powerful TTer who has done well over short courses like this (was 5th in the TOB TT last year, just 15" behind Wiggo. He of course won 2 stages in the TOB with powerhouse rides, so the winner of the Austrian TT championships for the last two years should be right up there in the top 10, maybe even has a shot at the podium at a big looking 50/1 with BV. He is 13/1 with Bet365 to finish in the top 3 and that's worth an interest. 

It's hard to find value in this stage... Wiggins should win and 6/4 looks just about acceptable. Cancellara and Boom are two who should be right up there too but it's hard to know exactly how they'll go and I'm going to take the chance that they will not make the top three. Instead I am going with Brandle and Stannard at 13/1 and 9/1 respectively to finish in the top 3. 

Coming to the GC? Well it's wide open among the top 5 or so in the betting - 3/1 for Kristoff, Boonen and Terpstra, 11/2 Sagan and 8/1 Bodnar. It's so hard to predict what will happen over one stage in this race, let alone over the next 4! Stannard interested me at 33/1 though, he could do a big TT tomorrow and put himself right in the hunt for a top 3 place. Bodnar could also put 20" or so in to some of the sprinters tomorrow so could be a shout for the GC.

It could be that it is still advantage the sprinters with the bonus seconds that are available over the last three stages, but it's not likely to stay this way all week and we are bound to see the likes of Kittel, Démare, Bouhanni and Guardini get involved in some of the finishes. Guardini's problem is that he is a hopeless triallist, he finished over a minute and a half behind in this TT last year. But if they share the seconds around then the likes of Boonen will miss out. This then puts the likes of Kristoff, if he can do a good TT and stay in the hunt on stages, in with a good shot, but I worry about him in the TT. So it points back at Terpstra I think. He has to do a great TT, and then look to try to break it up again some day in the wind to consolidate it. 

So that's cleared that up then hasn't it.. 

Recommendations:

Bradley Wiggins - 4pts win at 6/4 with Paddy Power

0.5pts win on Matthias Brandle to finish in the top 3 at 13/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Ian Stannard to finish in the top 3 at 9/1 with Bet365

 

Match Bets

Bodnar to beat Terpstra - 1.2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Brandle to beat Tuft - 2pts at 1/2 with Bet365

Stannard to beat Sagan - 1pt at 5/4 

 

GC

0.3pts each-way on Ian Stannard at 33/1 with various

 

Route Map

 

 

Stage Preview to come.. 

  

Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Al Thakhira to Mesaieed

Wednesday February 11th, 165.5 km

It looks all over bar the shouting this evening after a stunning display by Niki Terpstra in today's time trial. Wiggins looked good for a while, but was passed pretty soon by Cancellara, who clearly wasn't as 'kaput' as he had claimed he was.. Mathias Brandle and Ian Stannard both put in good performances to take top 3 spots for a while. Others were trying and failing badly though to come anywhere near the top 3, but then Terpstra came along and hit the first intermediate check 4" up, and kept the pace up to the line to beat Cancellara by 8". Stannard and Brandle finished 5th and 6th, with Bodnar in 4th. It puts Bodnar in to 2nd and Stannard in to 3rd on the overall, giving us a chance at the e/w bet we placed yesterday at 33/1. 

Nearly all the sprinters are out of it now after some poor time trials, Sagan and Kittel disappointing especially. Kristoff is the closest to the podium now but is still 24" behind Stannard's podium spot. 

Stage 4 is almost exactly the same route as stage 2, but this time they go in the opposite direction from north to south, out in to the desert and around Doha to Mesaieed. The winds will play a part in today's stage again as they head south over a longish 165.5kms. It will not be as windy as the first three stages but there will still be wind coming from the south-east, meaning they will start with a tail-wind, then face a side-wind for a while but for the majority of the stage they will be facing a head to slight cross-wind. There will be an opportunity for Etixx-Quickstep to try to split things again with about 40kms to go when they turn left by the Aqua Park, the wind will now be a cross-wind coming from their right. For the last 35kms or so it's a head-wind again, but as they hit Mesaieed they do a little loop and finish on a long straight road with a cross/headwind for the last kilometre.

Tom Boonen (twice), Heinrich Haussler and Greg Van Avermaet have all won stages here in the past, so it shows that all sorts of finishes tend to happen in Mesaieed! Hard to know how this will go again given the chaos of the opening two stages, but I think things might calm down a bit now seeing as the GC has swung in E-QS's favour - they don't really need to rip it apart any more, only look after him. Others may try, but they just don't seem to be as strong as Boonen's Boys. 

With the headwind expected for most of the day, it is pointing to a possible first mass bunch sprint finish. It's been disappointing from that point of view so far given the huge amount of sprinting talent on show in the desert. It is probably going to be fast, furious and nervous though for the opening 30kms or so until a break goes or until they hit the left turn at Al Ghuwairya where the change in wind direction could cause problems. It's likely to settle down though you'd think for a more normal stage, unless Sky or Tinkoff-Saxo try to do to E-QS what E-QS did to everyone else and try to blow it apart for their GC men, but that's going to be an almost impossible task.

It does look like we could finally see that big bunch sprint then and it could be a cracker. Kittel has to try to take something from his trip to Qatar, he can't be happy with his week so far. Nacer Bouhanni has been really poor, Arnaud Démare has been unlucky and Kristoff has done well but must be tiring after three tough stages. Boonen has had a few tough stages too which may have been evident in his poor TT today, Bennett is waiting in the wings and has had a few days off and Guardini also had a day off today, rolling around the course like he was delivering newspapers.

Add in Haussler, Sagan, Rojas, Van Poppel, Modolo and Theo Bos and it could be a massive battle. I'm after getting my fingers burnt a little with Kittel so far, but I'm worried that if I leave him he'll only go and win it tomorrow. Giant-Alpecin are not happy with the way the race has gone either and will be surely all out to make amends tomorrow. They have the best lead-out train here, so with the aid of a head-wind to control the race, they should come here ready to deliver a fresh and coiled Kittel to the last 300m. I think he will be very hard to beat should he get in that position. 3/1 with Bet365 is tempting for sure. 

Andrea Guardini is of course one of the favourites now for the sprints, following his excellent start to the season. He has had a rest today after two tough days, but I'm worried how much they have taken out of his legs. He could top 3 it again but 6/1 is a little short now. If they catch the day's break before the final intermediate with 29kms to go, Kristoff could well sprint for the seconds. If he does, he may not be able to sprint as fast at the finish. If not, he is surely top 5 material. Arnaud Démare has been riding well and has one of the better leadouts of the peloton after G-A and he sprints well on stages like this. He has won two stages before of course in Qatar so watch out for him tomorrow too. 

I can't leave Sam Bennett out also, there is lots of confidence in the camp and Bora-Argon did very well on stage 1 but got caught out on the splits like most of the peloton on stage 2. Bennett finished in one of the better groups though just 3" back and if the Bora-Argon train can let the other bigger teams do most of the work out in the desert, they may come to the front in the last 3kms pretty fresh and Bennett has a good chance at another top 5 finish again, and if gets a clear run he could well podium. The 40/1 with Ladbrokes is worth a small bet just in case. 

So it looks like a repeat of an earlier preview, but I think we could well see what stage 1 and 2 could have delivered, with a proper bunch sprint, won by an angry Kittel. Sam Bennett, Guardinin and Démare could be there too, with Kristoff, Sagan and Haussler in behind them. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 5/2 with Bet365 (by the time I finished writing this he was cut from 3/1, should have taken the price first!)

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 40/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Matchbets

Sam Bennett to beat JJ Rojas - 2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Kittel to beat Bos, Bennett to beat Rojas, Van Avermaet to beat Terpstra and Démare to beat Bouhanni - 1pt accumulator at 5.8/1 with Bet365

Bennett to beat Blythe and Haussler to beat Rojas - 1pt on the double at 13/8 with Paddy Power. 

 

Route Map

 

 

Stage Preview to come.. 

 

 

Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Al Zubara Fort to Madinat ash-Shamal

Thursday February 12th, 153km

Today's stage couldn't have gone more wrong really could it. So it turns out that apparently Marcel Kittel isn't feeling well, and no one seems to have known it, we were all suckered in to backing him today from what I can see. On the road as he wasn't feeling good they decided that Nik Arndt would get the leadout and he sprinted to 3rd place. It was all seemingly going so well with regards it being the first mass gallop of the race as they caught the break with about 20kms to go. But then, literally in the last kilometer, the whole race fell apart, there were near crashes, riders swinging all over the road and no real lead-out train taking control. Suddenly, there were only about 15 riders in front and Kristoff once again proved the strongest. There was no Démare, Bouhanni, Bennett, Van Poppel (had crashed), Boonen or Kittel. 

Sagan did well to almost catch Kristoff, Guardini was unlucky as he seemed to be going very fast but was chopped up by Blythe on the barriers and had to stop his sprint. Haussler came fast but left it too late. The split did see Bodnar nick 5" back on Terpstra, and now sits just 6" back in the GC. I did wonder though why Sagan didn't help him try to get extra bonus seconds at the finish to get even closer, but it was so chaotic, it's unlikely they even knew what was happening.. Kristoff is getting closer on the GC to 3rd place though, he's now just 7 seconds back from Stannard and just 19" back from 1st place. That is a big motivation for him to go out and try to win tomorrow's stage again, especially if they get another time split at the finish.

So tomorrow we should have another sprint - but I'm getting fed up with this race now, it's just total chaos. They head out in to head-wind, loop around on some of the roads used in today's stage and then after a loop which could cause some splits in the cross winds they head back north-west with a tail-wind to the Al Zubarah Fort where they started from. After 30kms or so along the coast with a cross-wind coming from their right they head to the final circuit around Madinat Al Shamal.

It should be another sprint you'd think, but who's going to be involved this time? Who knows. What I do know is that I am not going to take another chance on Kittel. Looks like he is looking after himself now and may not get involved again, as tempting as the 8/1 on him is! Kristoff is 5/2 best price, and you'd have to think that as the man in form and the man who seems to be best able to cope with the winds, he has a great chance of notching up a hat-trick and possibly stepping on to the podium spot that will deny us our each-way payout on Stannard. But 5/2 doesn't really appeal - if the 'pure' sprinters get involved this time he could be beaten.

Guardini at 9/1 with 365 looks interesting, he could well top 3 it again, I think he was unlucky today. Peter Sagan is 6/1 and may interest some, but I think he is sprinting for the 2nd or 3rd spot again though. Will Démare finally get it right? At 10/1 he might be the value option, if he gets in the right position and there is no Kittel around he could well be the fastest. After his decent 3rd on stage 1 he has gone missing though. Heinrich Haussler is another 5th to 10th man, as is Blythe and Rojas I think. Bennett's train fell apart today apparently in the last kilometre but up until then they were going well, maybe they will get it right tomorrow and the 66/1 price on him might really upset me tomorrow afternoon. Ruffoni was well up there today in 5th place and was going pretty fast but didn't get the smoothest passage, he looks big tomorrow at 100/1.

I'm after losing interest in this race now to be honest, who knows what will happen tomorrow again. We could even get a break that stays for once, but it's unlikely. If I was to recommend a bet it might be to have a small each-way on Démare at 10/1 or a nibble on Ruffoni at 100/1. Kristoff, Sagan and Guardini seem like the form men, and also men with ambition, which doesn't seem to be the case with a lot out there this week. A match bet that looks interesting is Terpstra to beat Van Avermaet at 7/4, Terpstra will need to be on his guard tomorrow near the front of the race to protect his position in the gold jersey in case Kristoff takes more time off him. 
 

Recommendations:

Ruffoni to beat Modolo - 1pt at evens with PP

Terpstra to beat Van Avermaet, 1pt at 7/4 with PP

 

Route Map

 

Finish

Stage 6 

Stage 6 - Sealine Beach Resort to Doha Corniche

Friday February 13th, 124.5km

Final stage then of the Tour of the Winds and it's the criterium stage around the Doha Corniche. We have two previous winners of this stage lining up, Arnaud Démare has twice won here (2014 and 2012) and Andrea Guardini took the 2011 sprint. In between, Mark Cavendish sprinted to victory in 2013. 

Today's 5th stage was indeed chaotic again, with the race even splitting with just a few kilometres left and just 15 riders getting away, including some of the big favourites. But amazingly, we ended up with the exact same top three again, as Kristoff just about overcame Sagan, who was going faster at the finish than Kristoff and only just failed to get up. Nik Arndt was again the sprint man for Giant-Alpecin and took 3rd again, as Kittel has just given up now it seems. In fact, if you removed Boonen it was the exact same top 5 with Blythe and Haussler the next two home. Sam Bennett punctured in the last 2kms but Démare and Boonen got a little bit closer in 8th and 10th. 

Hard to guess how it will go tomorrow - Kristoff looks unstoppable at the moment but this is sure to be a more straight-forward sprint for the 'pure' sprinters. Arnaud Démare knows how to win this stage, winning it last year, and he could well trouble Kristoff tomorrow. Sagan showed today that maybe Kristoff is losing some of his speed as he looked faster, but started later than AK. If Démare can time it right tomorrow FDJ could deliver him to the right position and if he has the speed he showed last year he should go close. He got caught a bit too far back today starting his sprint but got a lot closer in the last 50m. 

Nacer Bouhanni just doesn't look fit, he was in a good position coming in to the last 300m but couldn't get out the saddle and struggled to get closer. Guardini also has history here and is in the best form he has been in in years but did struggle today for once, finishing in 39th, but he may be back again tomorrow on a shorter course with a crit finish. 

It's likely we will see a real battle again tomorrow and with Sagan and Kristoff in such great form they are sure to be involved. But at 5/2 for Kristoff, he's a bit short for what should be a more out and out sprinters sprint! Although he was that price today and won. He also has the added incentive of possibly winning the overall also if he can take a few bonus seconds and win the stage too. Sagan is 7/1 with William Hill and that is sure to have some takers as he is in great form. 

Kittel is 2nd favourite at 6/1 (as short as 4/1) and maybe he will come right on the last day. If he has been feeling ill he might be getting over it and 6/1 could look a huge price tomorrow afternoon. But I'm not intertested in losing more money on him. Blythe, Haussler, Modolo and Rojas have been involved but they will be 4th to 10th again I think. 

I'm going to take a chance on dual winner Démare to make it a hat-trick at 8/1, it's not a great price, but is ok to have a go each-way. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Arnaud Démare at 8/1

2pts on Démare to beat Guardini at 10/11 with Bet365

 

 

Route Map

 

Stage Preview to come..