- Details
- Published on Monday, 02 February 2015 23:53
Wednesday February 5th to Saturday February 8th
The Dubai Tour returns for its second edition, having been upgraded a level to a 2.HC UCI ranking. 2014 winner, Taylor Phinney, is of course still in rehabilitation following his horrific leg injury last year so won't be here to defend his title. Instead, there are a number of world class riders here to try to pick up the bling-a-licious trophy, designed by the famous Italian car designer Pininfarina.
The big change to the race though is the change in the format - last year, Phinney won the opening stage Time Trial from Cummings, Norman Hansen, Martin and Cancellara and that top 5 in the GC after Stage 1 remained the exact same GC at the finish, 3 stages later. Marcel Kittel won the three following stages, and it was all a bit boring really from a GC point of view.
This year, the time trial is dropped and instead there are four road stages, and with no major vertical challenges on the route 
again, it looks like the winner will probably come from the sprinter who can amass the most bonus sprint seconds on each stage. Stage 3 though could shake things up a little bit - described as being a 'medium mountain stage' by the organisers, it's an undulating, rolling route out in the desert, finishing on a hill up to the Hatta Dam which hits 17% for the last 200m.
Last year Marcel Kittel won the stage but that stage finished on a flat stretch after the final hill, this year it's an uphill finish so should see a different kind of winner to a pure sprinter. It could also decide the overall if a punchy sprinter can win it and get good placings on the regular sprints too.
The race is run by RCS Sports who run the Giro and Milan San Remo, but being Dubai, they add a layer of flash that is synonymous with the Emirate. Last year, the jerseys were designed by Versace, but this year they have gone for fashion's biggest cycling fan, Paul Smith. Unlike his collaboration with the Sky kit though, the jerseys are not made by Rapha, but Castelli, possibly down to the RCS connections.
It has attracted a quality lineup this year, with some riders starting their season off, like Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez, John Degenkolb, Philippe Gilbert and Tony Martin. Others like Mark Cavendish, Alejandro Valverde and Elia Viviani will be coming here with some race miles in the legs having taken part in the Tour de San Luis or the Majorca races.
2014 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Phinney | BMC | 9h 31min 33s |
| 1 | Stephen Cummings | BMC | at 15s |
| 3 | Norman Hansen Lasse | Garmin Sharp | at 17s |
The Route
The route is quite similar to last year's, based mainly around the city of Dubai. Stage 3 ventures out in to the desert and the hills but the route is mainly based around the coast and the urban area of Dubai, among the glittering towers.
The route is pretty non-descript for the most part, just an opportunity for Dubai to show off it's landmarks and tourist attractions. I expect that stages 1, 2 and 4 will end in sprint finishes, unless cross winds split things up, and Stage 3 may end in a sprint between the puncheur types up the hill to Hatta Dam.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - The Union Flag Stage
Wednesday, February 4th, 145kms
Stage 1 sees them do a route that skirts along the coastline of the city, ending in 4 laps of an 8.5kms 'Union Flag' circuit. The route initially heads south-west towards Jebel Ali, then turns back and comes through the Expo 2020 area for the first intermediate sprint. The route has lots of roundabouts and speedbumps but is sure to be ultra fast. As they spend a lot of time on the coast, cross winds could split things up, but expect it to be the first sprint finish of the race. The finish is dead straight and dead flat - once they take the final u-turn on the last lap, it's 3.5kms of a dead-straight 7m wide road..
It should almost certainly end in a bunch sprint, given the pan-flat profile and urban criterium-like parcours. The question is, do we think Cav is a better than 50-50 chance of winning, and therefore does even money represent 'value'? Some people think that unless a rider is a big price like 50/1 then they don't offer 'value'. But like with any bet, a price could hold value, as long as your perceived probability of an event happening is higher than the probability implied by the bookies prices!
Harry Findlay, the famous gambler and owner of the great Denman, used to say that he would happily back odds-on shots all day long, as long as they represented value. So the question is, is Cav 'value'? Well, he is, on paper, the fastest sprinter in the race. He may have surrendered his title of the fastest man in the world to Kittel, but he should be the fastest of the riders taking to the start line here.
He has had a good prep in San Luis where he and the team got it wrong a few times before finally getting it right on stage 7. The fact he was up and challenging for stage 3 though also says to me he is in good shape - last year he didn't even try the uphill sprint and led out Boonen instead. Once he did get going he flew past the others in pursuit of Gaviria, but it was too late.
John Degenkolb is a great sprinter and is getting better every year. The last three times we saw Cav really go head to head with Deggers he beat him - twice at the Tour of California and once at the Tour de Suisse. I think he is capable of beating him again given its Deggers first race of the season. At 6/1 he represents a bit of each-way value though, he should be capable of a top 3 placing with that team behind him (or ahead of him...).
His next rival would appear to be Elia Viviani though at around 6/1 also. Viviani took a decent 2nd place in the Trofeo Santanyi-Ses Salines-Campos in Majorca last week, beating Greipel, Bouhanni and Rojas. Viviani seems to have been given a new lease of life at Sky and has a strong squad with him in Eisel, Thomas, Boswell, Swift and Fenn. Viviani though has history of disappointing so I'd rather wait and watch him tomorrow and think about him for Stage 2 and 4. If Viviani is their sprinter elect though, that means that Swift will be playing support, so hard to see value in him at 40/1 or so.
Juan Jose Lobato went well on the opening two stages Down Under, taking 7th on stage 1 and then winning the uphill sprint on Stage 2 to Stirling. This will be an altogether different sort of finish though and I can't be backing him at 9 or 10/1. Like Swift and Viviani, if Degenkolb is going for it, then Mezgec is also a bad bet at 20/1.
One I like though at a big price is Andrea Guardini at 25/1 with Paddy Power (he's only 10/1 with Bet365 and Skybet). The Astana sprinter took 3rd place in the stage to Burj Khalifa last year (right) so has form on these roads. He had a number of good results last year, including stages in the Eneco Tour, Denmark and Langkawi. If he has the squad working for him tomorrow he could well get in a good position to challenge for a top 3 place.
According to this story, Astana are possibly getting a new sponsor from Dubai, so may well be going extra hard this week (explains why Boom is being backed apparently too.. thanks @searchhhh) so we could see them trying to start the race with a bang..
So, to answer the question, I think Cav will be very hard to beat and will hopefully get his race for the GC off to the best possible start. He offers a little bit of value at evens.. Degenkolb is capable of a top 3 finish also.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Mark Cavendish at evens with Paddy Power
0.3pts each way on Andrea Guardini at 25/1 with Paddy Power
Route Map
Stage 2
Stage 2 - The Palm Stage
Thursday, February 5th, 187kms
So a good start to the Dubai Tour then, with Cavendish holding off a flying Guardini by millimeters to land the 1-2 and nearly 4pts profit. As nice as it was to call the 1-2 in the correct order, my bank balance would be better off had Guardini managed to pip him to the win!
It was a very strong sprint from Cav, who went from a full 300m out and although it was very close on the line, I think he was already easing down for the celebration. Having said that, it was a super sprint from my man Guardini, he came from a mile back to almost win. Viviani faded near the line when beaten and was almost passed by a flying Porsev. Lobato was 5th, Mezgec 6th and Degenkolb back in 13th.
It was pleasing from the GC bets point of view too to see Cav in the blue leaders jersey as predicted, but Palini was right in the mix in 7th place and Bole not far off either in 12th. Cav is now in to 7/2 with PP, and Valverde has been pushed out to 7/2. Bole is in to 16/1 with Swift another big mover in to 9/1 after nabbing 3 intermediate time bonus seconds. If Cav takes some more time tomorrow by winning I might think about a hedge on Valverde if he goes out to around 5/1 or so.
Stage 2 is similar in that it is likely to end in a bunch sprint on the iconic Palm Island. The only difference is that they head inland for quite a bit of the stage and the open desert roads could see some splits should some teams like Giant-Alpecin look to do so.
The finishing part of the course in the city could be quite tricky, several sectors are paved with stone slabs and can be quite rough, and there are lots of turns and roundabouts to negotiate before they hit the Palm Jumeirah. Once the last bend is out of the way with 3,500m to go it arcs its way along Crescent Road West but is almost dead straight from a sprinting point of view.
I've said from day one I could see Cav rack up a hat-trick of stage wins a-la-Kittel and his win today only served to reinforce that view. Etixx-Quickstep looked very strong in the last 5kms today and although it was quite a messy sprint they did enough to launch Cav at the right point. Cav got the jump on Viviani and held it strongly all the way to the line. I think they will be even better tomorrow and maybe not take control until those final 3.5kms on the island. They should then have more men left to do a textbook leadout and deliver him a bit closer to the line this time.
Andrea Guardini's sprint was excellent though and I can see him being involved again tomorrow if he can repeat that speed he showed today. The 25/1 is long gone though, he is now best price 6/1 with PP. He displayed enough speed when he finally got going though today to suggest he has the beating of most of these guys.
It will be interesting to see how Sky play this tomorrow - Ben Swift went for bonus seconds out on the course and took 3" to aid his GC cause should he do well on Stage 3's hill. He then led out Viviani but faded quickly and Viviani never looked like beating Cav. Will Swift be given his chance to try to gain bonus seconds at the finish tomorrow? 
Either way, I don't think Swift or Viviani are quick enough to beat Cav or Guardini the way they rode today.
One I do like the look of at 25/1 again is Alexander Porsev. He finished very fast, so fast that he almost ran in to the back of Viviani who had started to sit up. I had actually considered picking him last night for stage 1 but passed over him in favour of Guardini. If he can get in a good position tomorrow he could well go close again.
I think though that Cav will take his second stage win and I'm happy to play up some winnings from today. Guardini and Porsev to run him close though.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Mark Cavendish at 4/6 with various
0.3pts each-way on Alexander Porsev at 28/1 with Bet365
No match bets really appeal to me.
Route Map
Finish
Stage Preview to come..
Stage 3
Stage 3 - The Desert Stage
Friday February 6th, 205kms
This is probably the stage that's going to decide the outcome. Those with GC ambitions like Nibali, Gilbert and Valverde will get their teams to soften up the sprinters as they head in to the Hajar mountains. This is the longest stage of the race at 205kms and there are plenty of wide open desert roads also to make it interesting, before they head to the finale on the pull up to the Hatta Dam. The last 200m hits 17% average gradient, so possibly taking 10-20 seconds and the bonus seconds for the stage win will possibly overcome the time gains made by the sprinters on the other stages. That is, if they can shake all of the sprinters on that final climb.
Before they get to the finish at the Hatta Dam though the route takes them over the first climb of the day and then out on a northerly direction and back again, over the Khalba Road Tunnel from both sides.
On the way out the road climbs gently at an average of 1.7% for the first 4kms, then kicks up to 6.1% for the last 1.7kms, hitting a max of 10%. On the way back it is much shorter and steeper - 2.6kms at an average of 8.9%, hitting a max of 11% near the top.
Once they pass the road they left just before heading up to the Khalba Tunnel, they start on the twisting road up to the Hatta Dam. From the 20km to 5km to go mark the road surface is a rough concrete surface called Wadis, something to watch out for, as is sand accumulation on the desert roads.
The final climb to the dam is quite gentle at first but then kicks up for the last 350m, hitting 17% average for the last 200m. It isn't very long though so there is a slim possibility that some of the sprinters can hang on close enough to stay in GC contention.
My picks were close today, but not close enough.. Cavendish got it wrong and was passed by a flying Viviani who lifted his performance a fair bit from the day before. Guardini did take a good top 3 as predicted too, but unfortunately Porsev just missed out on a result for us, finishing in 4th, just behind Guardini. So we go in to the decisive 3rd stage with the GC looking very tight - Cav leads Viviani by just 2" with Guardini 6" back. Cav does hold a 16" gap though on the GC guys like Valverde and Gilbert, but Valverde has gone back to being favourite again, at 5/2 best price, with Cav at 9/2. Of course Viviani could well hang in there tomorrow too and win the final stage, which would possibly give him the overall too, he is 12/1 if you see that happening. I think though Cav will finish ahead of him on this climb..
So what's going to happen tomorrow then? Well the most likely scenario is that the peloton will probably come to the final stretch altogether, or at least the majority of the peloton and it is a battle first of all for positioning at the bottom of the climb, and secondly for the 200m sprint up the climb.
Positioning will be crucial - there is a sharp right hand turn just as they start the climb as you can see on the right, that is if it is this road.. no one seems to know for certain but the general consensus seems to be that this is the road with the 17% gradient, it certainly looks like it. As I said though, that right hand bend as they hit the climb is going to be very important. If Cavendish wants to stay within 20" of Valverde or whoever wins the stage then he needs to be on the wheel of a teammate or two at the front hitting this bend, or very close to the front. When the climbers sprint past him he has to dig in and just hope that the 200m of agony will pass quickly and he can stay close enough to still give himself a shot at the overall come the final sprint on Saturday.
Valverde is the short 2/1 favourite with Betvictor, but he's as short as 7/4 with Bet365 and Paddy Power, where he was backed in from 9/4. Despite what Valverde was quoted as saying the other day, that he was going to work for Lobato, the fact that Lobato hasn't picked up any time bonuses might mean that the onus will be back on Valverde to sprint up the hill to victory. He is the most likely winner for sure - he eats these sorts of climbs for breakfast, if he is up for it.. If he can produce his trademark explosive burst, like he did in Fleche-Wallone last year, then no one will be able to stay with him. He has some form to go on too, having won in Majorca just last week. I'm waiting to see if I can get 2/1 or better anywhere, he is 2/1 with BetVictor but they've shut my account..
Philippe Gilbert is next in the betting, and normally you'd think he'll be right up there too but I can't have faith in him seeing as we haven't seen anything from him so far this year and he apparently is only over there to find some form. Joaquim Rodriquez likewise - should love this climb, but doesn't look like he's anywhere near race fitness yet. At only 200m though there could be a few surprise candidates in there - Ben Swift could go close, but it might be just too steep for him, same for Degenkolb. Battaglin, Nibali, Bole, Lutsenko and Pozzato could all be fighting it out in the last 200m.
Michael Valgren at 28/1 could be worth a shot though, the young Dane seems to be in good form, taking a good 9th place in Stage 2 in the sprint despite having to do it all by himself more or less. He could be up for this tomorrow and might be a bit fitter than some of the other puncheurs.
I am hoping Cav can drag himself to the finish in the first 30 or so and stay within 10" on the GC to give him a shot again on the last sprint to retake the lead. Just in case though, Valverde is the most likely on paper to take it off him so it is worth backing him tomorrow I think. The best result would be Valverde wins, Cav finishes 12" behind him and Valgren takes 2nd place! I also like my man Palini in a match bet with Porsev and Herrada to beat Visconti.. it's hard to know the order they will be made ride in to that climb in but on paper Herrada should beat Visconti.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 2/1 with Bwin or BetVictor
0.5pts each-way on Michael Valgren at 28/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
1.5pts win on Andrea Palini to beat Alexander Porsev at 4/6 with Bet365
1.2pts win on Jesus Herrada to beat Giovani Visconti at 5/6 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Final Climb
Stage Preview to come..
Stage 4
Stage 4 - The Buraj Stage
Saturday February 7th, 123kms
So that worked out almost exactly as I predicted in terms of the GC.. Cav got dropped on the climbs, but the fact there were still 40kms or so to go meant that he and his super-powerful Etixx-QuickStep team easily got back on in time for the dash up the hill. And as I hoped, he managed to finish in the top 20 and lose just 10" to the winner - it was only 200m after all up that hill, not exactly the Mur du Huy.
What I didn't expect, and I think I'm not alone here, was that big John Degenkolb would be the one to power away from the pack and hold off the chasing Movistar duo of Valverde and Lobato. Valverde was close, but just didn't have his spark, in hindsight it looks like what he was saying about Lobato being the man looks like he knew he wasn't in his best form.
What an outstanding ride by Deggers though - powered away from a great lead in to the climb by his team-mates.. He got a gap and in what looked like a 53x27 grinded it out to the line. Behind, Pozzato was unlucky for his backers in 4th, Canola was a very impressive 5th, Gilbert was just off the pace in 6th (but was nearly taken out of it at the bottom of the climb by Lobato who swung across him) and Bole was right up there too in 7th.
The end result is Degenkolb is the new leader with an advantage of just 4" over Cavendish, with Valverde back in 3rd, 2" further back. The 14/1 each-way looks like guaranteeing the place money at the very least with a very strong chance now of landing the win stakes too - just finish 2 places in front of Deggers in 1st or 2nd place and he wins. I believe as well that if he comes third, and ahead of Degenkolb he will win overall as he will have better overall stage results. There are also bonus seconds out on the course to be won but it's likely a break, possibly including Etixx or Giant guys will mop them up and bring it to a finish line showdown.
So it's 1-1 for Cav and Viviani so far, what way will it go tomorrow? I think it's hard to look beyond the same top 4 again, that is the two stage winners but also the other two fastest men in the race, Guardini and Porsev. I think Etixx-Quickstep will be absolutely at the top of their game tomorrow, they must be buzzing after that performance today to catch the peloton and for Cav to beat the likes of Rodriguez, Nibali and Spilak to stay in with a shout.
There may even be games at play between Sky and Etixx, maybe a deal will be done to let Cav get the seconds he needs?! Giant-Alpacin will not go down without a fight though so expect to see that black train make a move in the last few kilometres. But on the evidence so far on the flat stages, Cav should be pretty confident of taking the time needed to land the win. Degenkolb will be buoyed by the win, but how much has it taken out of him? He was exhausted and collapsed after the line, it will be a big ask I think to pip the top 4 in the sprint.
Cav is as short as 1/2 to win the overall now, and is 4/5 to win the stage. Although E-QS will probably dominate the last kilometre and Renshaw should deliver him perfectly, I have no interest in backing him at 4/5 tomorrow. Viviani could well do him again and if he does get in trouble and doesn't manage to get the time needed then it will be doubly painful. Viviani could well take the stage again but is 9/2 a good enough bet? I think he is worth a shot each-way - Sky have been pretty good in the lead-outs so far and he has shown he has good speed. I think he should be in the top 3 again so 9/2 gives us our money back if 2nd or 3rd at least.
Guardini wasn't quite as fast on stage 2, but it was a far longer stage - he tends to do better over shorter races, and this stage is only 123kms long so expect him to be right up there again. At 6/1 again he offers a bet that may give a return if you fancy him. Porsev again is the outsider at 20/1, and that again looks a big price if he can just go one place better and get on to the podium. (Bet365 are 33/1 though now, that's a bit more interesting...) Degenkolb and Lobato are shorter prices than him but I can't see them finishing ahead of him.
Overall though, fingers crossed that Cav gets the 4" he needs and takes the overall. Viviani could well take the stage though from Guardini or Porsev in 3rd again.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 9/2 with PP
0.5pts each-way on Andrea Guardini at 6/1 with PP
0.2pts each-way on Alexander Porsev at 33/1 with Bet365
Route Map
Last 5kms
Stage Preview to come..
Overall Contenders and Favourites
Bet365 were the first to come out with their odds today and they made Alejandro Valverde the short 7/4 favourite. I think this is too short, that final climb may be 17% in parts but it's only 200m long - can he really take that much time out of all the rest of them in that short space? He is unlikely to pick up any other time bonuses along the way so it would have to be a pretty superb effort to give himself enough of a gap to not have to worry about the sprinters on the last day. In fact since I started writing this Valverde has been on the drift and is now out to 2/1 generally. It still looks short to me..
Philippe Gilbert is the 5/1 second favourite, and he is hard to weigh up given we haven't seen him yet this year. There hasn't been much word on his form too from what I can see so he's maybe a little short to rely on at 5/1. He may well be right up there on the climb and could take bonus sprint points along the way, but I'm not so sure.
Juan Jose Lobato comes next at 8/1 and he has shown his form already this season with a good showing in the Tour Down Under. Winner of Stage 2 with a powerful surge to the line, 17% is a different gradient though and it will be interesting to see how he copes with it. He could well be involved in the sprint finishes too, but I can't see him taking maximum bonus points on any of the stages but he could well do consistent enough to claim a podium place.
For the last few days I've been thinking John Degekolb could be a good GC bet, I was hoping for 10/1 or so. I thought he should be top 3 possibly on the three sprint stages and is one of the sprinters who could well stay within reach on the climb to the Hatta Dam. The Giant-Alpecin team should be able to set him up for intermediate sprint bonus seconds too so he had a good chance of a top 3 GC placing I thought. But he is just 7/1 and is as short as 5/1 with BetVictor..
I read on Monday though that their coach, Aike Visbeek, has said that they would be focusing on the sprints with Deggers and Mezgec, but that Chad Haga and Tobias Ludvigsson would be their protected men for the GC. This confuses me though, I can't see how Chad Haga and Ludvigsson can possibly trouble the GC, they're not exactly going to pull away from the likes of Valverde and Gilbert etc. So they may be either bluffing, or they haven't really thought it through properly yet. I will think a bit more about this one before the race starts!
Joaquim Rodriguez is next at 10/1 (now 16/1 with BetVictor) but I'm not interested in him, apparently he is only going there for conditioning. He is behind on where he usually is at this time of the year in terms of fitness, as he is concentrating on the Tour and the Vuelta this year he says. Of course he could well dance away from them on the climb, but I am not interested in him at that price. 25/1, maybe!
The next guy in the betting though got me interested because of what I have said above about stage 3 and that climb.. Mark Cavendish to me has a great chance of going in to the 3rd stage with a healthy lead having possibly won the first two stages. He showed in San Luis that he is in good shape and got better as the race went on, finally besting the young rising star Gaviria after twice finishing 2nd to him. That race sharpness should serve him well and he could get off to a great start with 10 bonus seconds on stage 1.
Stage 2 should be another great chance of a win for him, as should stage 4, just like Kittel last year - if you are on form and stay out of trouble, the top sprinter in the race could well take a hat-trick of flat stages. That's a lot of bonus seconds, not to mention possible intermediate bonus sprints that his team can help him nab possibly along the way too. That final climb isn't too difficult up until the last 200m, his team should be able to keep him close and drag him to the last 200m and from there it is just another eyeballs out sprint for him, albeit that he will possibly be 10-15 seconds behind the winner.. But it may be enough to keep him in the blue leaders jersey, or close enough to retake it on the final stage.
He opened at 18/1 I think I saw, by the time I went to back him he was 14/1, I had a point each-way and they cut him to 11/1. Then he went back out to 12/1 and has now settled down at 10/1. I think 10/1 is still worth a bet. That is, as long as he can avoid crashing, which you can't always rule out with Cav...
I don't think Nibali will be risking himself and it is very early in the season for him, I'm going to pass. We saw last year it took him a long time to get going, it was not until the Italian Champs in June that he took his first win! There are loads of others who could do something, but it's going to be hard to really try to pick someone out who is going to get away and win on the Hatta Dam. Of course, there is the possibility of a breakaway winning one of the stages but I can't see it happening, the sprint teams should pull it back together each time.
Some big priced outsiders to look out for are Andrea Palini at 150/1, Jan Bakelants at 150/1 and Grega Bole at 50/1. Andrea Palini is a Skydive Dubai rider who has won two stages in the Tour of Egypt just two weeks ago. This is a different level altogether and he may come nowhere, but this is a big race for the team and he is clearly in good shape. He had some good results last year including 6 top 5 finishes in the Tour of Hainan and 2 top 3 finishes in the Tour of Utah. At 150/1 he is worth a speculative small bet.
Jan Bakelants could launch himself off the front on the run up to that climb on stage 3, but he would be a small stakes bet. (A late update on this, Bakelants has pulled out apparently, was suffering from flu last week...) Grega Bole had a really good season last year with loads of top 5 finishes. He can sprint on the flat and uphill pretty well so could have a shot at a podium place too at a tasty 50/1.
Lars Boom is being backed, is as short as 10/1 with Bet365 (from 25/1) and this is a curious one to me. He's not exactly noted for either his sprinting skills or his short-burst climbing powers, so it's hard to see how he'll get an edge. Unless he and Astana are planning something in the crosswinds to get him up the road, but that's taking a big punt I think at prices around 12/1-14/1. Skybet are 22/1 but even at that I'm not sure.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Mark Cavendish at 14/1 with Bet365 (take the 10/1 or better if other bookies go bigger) (edit - 13.20: other bookies are now up and there is 12/1 available, but win only.. still waiting on PP and Boyles..)
0.3pts each-way on Andrea Palini at 150/1 with Bet365 (now 100/1 but 150/1 available with BetVictor)
0.25pts each-way on Grega Bole at 50/1 with Bet365 (now 40/1 but 50/1 available with some, win only though)
