Santos Tour Down Under 2015  

Stage 2 

Unley to Stirling, 150.5kms

Wednesday 21st January 

Stage 2 starts in the southern suburb of Adelaide, Unley and heads out on a meandering route that first heads north-east for about 36kms to Lenswood before turning south and heading towards the loops that end with the climb to the finish in Stirling. 

The KOM of the day comes very early on the stage, after just 29.8kms on Basket Range, so anyone who has designs on the jersey will need to get away early. It's a rolling course that will be good for a break if it's a strong one. As they hit Mylor for the first time after 100kms they start on the first of 2 1/2 laps of the circuit around Stirling, climbing the hill to the finish 3 times. 

The climb up to Stirling is in two parts with the total distance from the bottom of the climb being about 8kms. The first part is about 5kms long, then they descend for around 1.5kms. The final kick though is 1.3kms long at an average of 7.1%, but the gradient average is deceptive as there are several steep sections which hit 12-14% around half way up. It eases slightly about 100m from the line to just 2.8% but by then the winner is more than likely to be a little (or maybe even a lot) ahead and clear like Diego Ulissi last year who landed the odds for me at 8/1.  

Paddy Power has priced up this stage with several days now and has Daryl Impey as the 4/1 favourite, followed by Heinrich Haussler at 11/2. This finish is one for the powerful puncheurs who can sprint, as can be seen by the top 3 last year in Ulissi, Gerrans and Evans and 2013's top 3 of Slagter, Goss and Gilbert.

It's understandable that Impey is favourite as he will like this finish and won't have to be looking after Gerrans this year. Last year, he did a brilliant job in trying to lead out Gerro for the finish, pulling him to the last 150m. He even managed to go again when his job was done rather than sitting up and took 10th on the stage. He's got a very strong team to help set him up with the likes of Clarke, Durbridge and Cam Meyer to lead him out and he should go close. He finished strongly on stage 1, taking 6th in the sprint and now sits in 10th overall.. 4/1 is a little short though, I'll see how the other bookies price it up later. Bet365 have gone biggest at 8/1 tonight and that is worth a shot each way I think for the reasons given above. 

Heinrich Haussler is in great form as can be seen by his results in the Australian Nationals and the People's Choice, where he took 5th, but was badly boxed in by Mark Renshaw in the last 100m and would surely have been a lot closer with a clear run. He finished well again on stage 1 today, taking 4th in the bunch sprint. The uphill finish might be a bit tough for him, but his form is clear to see and his sprint is as strong as it ever has been probably. 

Next up is Gianni Meersman, a rider fancied by many to do very well this week, starting with stage 1, where he almost  delivered, taking 2nd in the bunch behind Bonifazio. He too will like this finish more than most. He has a very powerful finish on hills like this and has a strong team with him with Velits, Renshaw and Maxime Bouet. Again, his price is quite tight though at 8/1 with Skybet but he should go close again. Bet365 are 10/1 tonight though, a little bit better. 

Skybet have Marcel Kittel next though at 8/1 but I honestly can't see him being involved at the end of three runs up the climb to Stirling. If he couldn't get closer than 32nd in stage 1 then I can't see him winning a sprint of this nature. 

JJ lobato has had his backers today after two good rides in the People's Choice and stage 1. You would think a Spaniard riding for Movistar should be able to cope with this finish well but it's worth bearing in mind he finished in 88th place on the stage to Stirling last year and 112th the year before..  He did have a good year in 2014 but he seemed to be in best form later in the year around the Osterreich Rundfarth and the Tour de Wallinger when he posted some good results. There's enough doubt for me to skip over him.

Nicollo Bonifazio has been right at the forefront in the first two races of the year, his backers were unlucky not to collect on stage 1, when he 'won' the bunch sprint but it was for 5th place. He was in great form towards the back end of last year, definitely was in better form at the latter part of the year than at the start, so it's hard to know what to make of how he'll go tomorrow. If he needs any further incentive though, by winning the stage he should take the leaders jersey, as you can't see Bobridge finishing with the leaders. The same can be said for Meersman though so it could be a real battle between Etixx-Quickstep and Lampre-Merida in the last few kilometres.   

Cadel Evans has done well here in the past but I can't see him in the top 3 this year. Richie Porte and Geraint Thomas could be interesting - does Thomas just look after Porte or does he get a chance to attack on the climb? It's the kind of finish that he could do well on but I think it will be GC first and foremost for now. If it comes down to a sprint though I think 5th to 10th place at best for both, but no time loss on the GC. 

One rider that could do well though is the little pocket rocket, Sam Dumoulin - 11th in stage 1, he tends to go well early in the season. He's getting on in age now at 34 but if he can hang in there with the leaders he has a punchy sprint that could see him podium. I was hoping for 33/1 or so but 20/1 is the best available. He's a long shot but maybe worth a small each-way. Nathan Haas made a mess of it last year and should do it differently this year but I haven't enough confidence in him to recommend backing him at just 9 or 10/1, he is 18/1 with Betvictor which is a bit more like it but I'll pass.

Can Tom Dumoulin hang in there to keep his GC hopes alive? Possibly, but the sprinters should be too fast for him at the finish. One final rider to watch out for is the young Frenchman Lorenzo Manzin who has a very strong uphill finish and will be ignored today by the big guns.. He finished 13th on stage 1 and could well cause a shock at a big 100/1. Luis Leon Sanchez should be right up there too you'd have to think, a top ten finish is possible.

It's a hard one to call tonight, I think it will come down to a sprint finish between the guys named above, I'm hoping for Daryl Impey will do the business on the stage and get important bonus seconds too to boot!

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Daryl Impey at 8/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Sam Dumoulin at 20/1 with Boylesports. 

0.2pts each-way on Lorenzo Manzin at 100/1 with Paddy Power (or Boyles)

 

Matchbets:

Lorenzo Manzin to beat Tsatevich - 1pt at even money with Bet365

Luis Leon Sanchez to beat Tom Dumoulin at 11/10 with Bet365 

Niccolo Bonifazio to beat JJ Lobato - 1pt at 13/8 with Bet365

Meersman to beat Haussler, Porte to beat Hansen, Manzin to beat Tsatevich - 1pt on the treble at 7/4 with Bet365

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 3 

Norwood to Paracombe, 143.2kms

Thursday 22nd January 

So close on stage 2 with Impey who was passed in the last 20m by a flying Lobato. Impey was unlucky in that he was in a great position coming into the last 400m, but the last rider left in front of him, Haas, died too soon and he had to take up the sprint a little earlier than was probably ideal. Lobato came from a long way back on the opposite side of the road at a very high pace though and comfortably took his first Pro Tour win. 

Quite annoyed that my Luis Leon match bet lost, it's not often you'll get LL Cool J in the top 6 and still lose a match bet.. 

Jack Bobridge clung on for dear life on the final Hill and retains his leaders jersey by 3" from Lobato, with Westra 4" back, Impey 7" back, Izagirre 9" and then 42 riders 13" back. It's still wide open and today's finish should start to sort out the order a bit more.

This stage starts with the steep climb up out of Norwood to Campbelltown, but it is still in the neutralised section which is a bit strange as it then turns in to a pretty flat stage with a few rolling hills along the way. They head almost due east away from Adelaide for 35kms or so until they reach Birdwood, then take a sharp right and head towards Mount Torrens. Shortly after they head on to the 25kms circuit that goes through Charleston where there are 3 intermediate sprints along the way.

After passing near Lobethal for the final time they take a right turn away from the circuit and head on the road towards the finish and the new climb up Torrens Hill Road to Paracombe. The KOM is actually 400m from the finish so it could be a strange finish where the KOM Chasers might have to go early to get the points and may fade, before those who held something back could pass them in the last 400m!

Torrens Hill Road is a very popular climb with riders in the Adelaide area as it winds its way up to the tiny little village of Paracombe which has less than 100 inhabitants! The climb is short but tough - 1.2kms at an average of 9.9%, but it's a very irregular gradient, hitting over 20% in parts. Anyone who has designs on winning the overall needs to be right at the front as they hit the final 1500m of this stage. 

This is a lot tougher finish than the fast drag up to Stirling so it's hard to tell if some of the sprinter types will be there at the finish to sprint it out this time. If he can hang on when the GC men make their move, then Lobato will take all the beating based on his finish today. He's clearly in great shape and I wouldn't be surprised any more to see him involved. 

Will this be the first real duel between the GC favourites though? You'd have to think so. If they don't start grabbing time back this race could be won on time bonuses by someone like Bobridge or Lobato. Of course Willunga will sort out some of those, but I would think several have this stage in mind to start their GC assault. 

Matt White reckons today's stage is going to be really hard though and that it could have a major bearing on the GC outcome - “I think tomorrow is going to be crucial,” White said. “Tomorrow is the day that is going to decide general classification for everybody. But today was a start for us, we got some time bonuses, which are crucial here, and we will take them.”

Richie Porte has reiterated that he is here to win the race and that he is in great shape. He thinks Evans is looking good and is looking forward to the battle with him today and on Thursday on Willunga. I would expect these two to be to the fore as they hit the last kilometre for sure. Sure enough, now that the bookies have opened up with their prices Porte is the 5/2 favourite, with Evans 2nd fav at 4/1..

Sky looked strong yesterday in keeping Porte at the front where it mattered in the last 5km and you would expect them to be looking to control things tonight again in the run in to the climb - positioning is going to be so important. Whether Porte lives up to the talk he is in the shape of his life will be interesting to see - 5/2 was a bit tight but 7/2 with Ladrokes was enough to tempt me, i backed him at that. I think like on Corkscrew last year he will kick and very few will be able to match him. 

Cadel Evans will like this sort of finish you'd think also, but you wonder if he still has the kick needed to go with the really fast guys here. He could well top 3 it but I'm not going to back him each way even at 9/2

One I think who could do well again and reinforce his GC challenge is Daryl Impey. Tonight he can sit on the wheels of the leaders like Porte and Evans rather than try to force it. He can bide his time knowing that if he can hang on to the leaders or just behind them he might be able to outsprint a lot of them at the finish. OGE should be able to get him in a good position and if he can follow the Sky guys he should be in a good position to pounce. It might be a bit steep for him but he seems very strong at the moment. At 14/1 he might claim a podium spot at worst. He has shortened in to 8/1 best price for the overall from the 15/1 I have him at so it's going well so far.

Another of my GC picks Luis Leon Sanchez showed very well on Stage 2 also, taking 6th place in the sprint. Astana massed at the front with a few kilometres to go and put him in a great position. We could see something similar today and he will like this finish. He looks big at 28/1 with Bet365. It will be interesting to see though who they get behind with Westra sitting in 3rd place overall. It could be decided on the road today, depending on who's going best. Tom Dumoulin is the flavour of the month at the moment and is 4th favourite at around 12/1 but is as big as 16/1. I think he could fade a little on the really steep parts here but if he doesn't he could be in with a big shout given his strong finishing kick.

Domenico Pozzovivo is going well as I hoped he would, and that is despite only hearing a few days ago he's riding with a fractured wrist following a training crash last week. He has said it isn't really bothering him and his target is a top 5 GC place. This sort of finish should suit him very well and if he wants that top 5 on the GC he will probably have to be in the top 5 or so home tonight. 20/1 with Coral is worth a little interest. 

Machado, Izagirre and Fernandez could all go well on this stage, as could Geraint Thomas if Porte isn't in contention for some reason. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Richie Porte at 7/2 with Ladbrokes (take the 3/1 with Ladbrokes or Bet365)

0.5pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 14/1 with Boylesports

0.3pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 28/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 20/1 with Coral

 

 

Stage 4 

Glenelg to Mt Barker, 144.5kms

Friday January 23rd 

So Rohan Dennis decided to do his own thing last night rather than follow the team plans, and as a result he has catapulted himself in to the Ochre jersey of race leader following a brilliant stage win. He was supposed to attack at the bottom of the climb to put Porte, Impey and Co under pressure, but he said he was too far back. Porte tried to go, Evans covered, Pozzovivo had a dig but didn't get too far, then as the pace dropped a touch as they hit the 450m to go mark, some riders came back to the 5 leaders who had briefly gained a small gap. Dennis had built up huge momentum as he arrived and just shot past the leaders. Tom Dumoulin tried to give chase but the wheel of a guy who is about to take on the hour record is not an easy one to catch when in full flight.

Evans did really well to pass Dumoulin on the line to take the 6 bonus seconds, but he still now trails his team-mate by 7" with Dumoulin 2" further back in 3rd place. It sounded like Evans gave him an ambivalent congratulations at the finish, as Dennis said "he gave me a thumbs up and a handshake, which for a man of little words meant a lot"... I'm not so sure the team meeting was so jovial though, but I'm sure it will sort itself out on Willunga Hill one way or another.

My picks finished 6th, 9th, 11th and 19th so they were all close enough, if good enough, but Dennis was too strong. Willunga is a different climb altogether though and it looks like it is still all to play for. This is reflected in the betting which now sees Porte, Evans and Dennis close to being joint favourites, if you average prices out across all the books. Evans shades favouritism at best price 5/2, Porte is best priced 3/1 and Dennis is best price 9/2. Dumoulin is a not far off that though at 6/1 with Pozzovivo, Impey and Rogers around the 20/1 mark now.  

Stage 4 heads out of Glenelg and takes them on a tour around the south of Adelaide, going around Willunga but not over it today. The KOM comes very early in the stage, after just 45kms, with the climb up Sellicks Hill which is just 5.4kms at just 2.3%. There are several other climbs along the way though, one of which is quite long at nearly 20kms, but averages just 2%. Once over the top of that climb there are just over 20kms left to the finish. 

There is one last little uncategorised lump to get over though as they leave Echunga with less than 9kms to go - a stinger at 7% for 800m. It's a chance for teams to try to shake off the sprinters like Kittel as it is likely to end in a sprint. Once over the top it's all downhill to the flat sprint finish in Mount Barker, a deceptive name as there's no mount there.. 

The interesting dynamic from the point of view of trying to pick the winner of tonights stage will be how Giant-Alpecin approach the stage and the finish. With Marcel Kittel not exactly excelling on stage 1 and the team having publicly stated that protecting the GC positions of Dumoulin and Geschke are their number one priority now, they may well not be playing leadout train tonight. Of course Kittel is good enough when on form to surf other wheels if he has to and they will probably give him the assistance of Koen de Kort. This doubt though is reflected in his price - he is available to back at a massive looking 7/1 (after being evens to win stage 1). Of course part of the reason he is so big is that he has to get over that climb as they leave Echunga - the other teams are sure to put him under pressure and there are less than 8kms left once over the top.

JJ Lobato is of course in great form but he did finish almost dead last yesterday, over 11 minutes down on the leaders. Having said that though, he probably knew he was not going to be involved at the finish and just rolled up the hill slowly to preserve energy for today's stage which he has a decent chance of winning again. He rolled in with fellow sprinters Nizzolo, Wippert and Sutton so it looks like they were all thinking the same thing. He is clearly flying but will Movistar go all guns blazing as well with Fernandez and Izagirre sitting in the top 15? Hard to say and for that reason, 3/1 looks quite short to me. 

Daryl Impey opened at just 7/2 with BetVictor and 6/1 with Paddy Power. He nearly won stage 2 and finished only just behind the leaders on Paracombe so his form should have him contesting this sprint for sure. Add in the fact that he really needs the 10" bonus to get back in GC contention and I think OGE will be going all guns blazing. He's their highest man on GC as well so it's a very important stage for them. He may well do well on Willunga too but this stage is crucial for his chances. There are quite a few fast flat sprinters here though so he's going to have to pull off a super sprint to land the 14/1 odds that Bet365 are now offering.

Niccolo Bonifazio will have his supporters again tonight in the hope that he can repeat his sprint 'win' on stage 1, but he's a little short to me at 9/1. Haussler and Meersman are both around 10/1 and both finished well off the pace yesterday too. I think they will be looking at a 4th to 10th place finish tonight. 

Sam Dumoulin, Wouter Wippert and Giacomo Nizzolo are all available at 33/1 which looks big for all three, as it is going to be a keenly contested sprint, with lots in with chances. 

One thing that could scupper the lot will be a break succeeding, like on stage 1. There are plenty of riders and teams with nothing out of the race so far that will be keen to get in the break of the day. It's unlikely a break will succeed given the time bonuses that are needed by some at the finish, but the likes of BMC and Giant might be happy to not chase and let the breakaway guys pick up the bonus seconds. Look for Drapac, UniSA, OGE, Garmin and Astana to try to put men up the road. Another thing that may influence the end of the stage though is the fact that the second intermediate sprint comes with just 27kms to go. OGE may look to pull the break back before that to set up Impey for the intermediate sprint to see if he can snag a few seconds. 

This is a very difficult stage to pick a winner for and there is not a lot of value available. With Giant-Alpecin, BMC, Sky and maybe even UniSA, Movistar and AG2R all looking to preserve their GC places it could be a really choatic and messy sprint. Kittel interested me because of the ridiculously big price he is - Boyles opened at 8/1 and I just had to take some of that. If he manages to get to the finish with the peloton he will give us a good run for our money at 8/1 I think. It looks like they have cut him to 11/2 and PP have cut him to 9/2 but I think 11/2 is still worth a bet, win only - he either wins or comes nowhere I think. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo is also a huge price at 33/1 with Paddy Power, he tends to have a habit of getting lost sometimes but 33/1 is too tempting. He is dead last on the GC so really needs to get a result to salvage some pride out of this race. Also watch out for some late attacks over that climb from the likes of Adam Hansen, Luis Leon Sanchez, Lars Boom or Jack Bauer.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Marcel Kittel at 8/1 with Boyles (take 11/2 now)

0.5pts e/w on Giaccomo NIzzolo at 33/1 with PP

 

 

 

Stage 5 

McLaren Vale to Willunga Hill, 151.5kms

Saturday 24th January

Well, it was another disappointing mid-night wake up for me last night as Kittel got dropped, much to the delight of the layers and the frustration of those who had supported him. I knew it was a gamble but thought it was one worth taking on at the odds. In hindsight, maybe I should just have left it but sometimes that sort of faith can pay off.

I did get a few things right though. Impey was challenging for bonus seconds and after OGE reeled in the first break of the day with a full 68km to go, he nabbed 3 seconds in the second last intermediate sprint. He also proved to be a good bet at 14/1 with a great sprint to take second place, a result that gave him a further 6 seconds bonus that moves him up to 4th again, just 14" behind Dennis. Wouter Wippert was indeed a big price at 33/1, but I'm annoyed that a rider I've backed a few times now only goes and wins yesterday's stage when I'm not on him.

I was also right about it being chaotic and messy, and that chaos culminated in a massive crash after Haussler cut up a fading Manzin and clipped his wheel, causing a massive pile up that held up most of the field. Check out the amazing footage of the crash below: the onboard camera from Jeremy Roy shows just how lucky he was to get through, and the fan camera footage shows just how scary the crash was at the speed they were going just then in the second video at the 4'55" mark, Ian Stannard's dismount is almost comical..

As predicted Luis Leon gave it a go on the last hill and descent, but to be honest he looked laboured and tired and never really looked like he was going to stay away. Unfortunately Nizzolo was piss poor again, coming in with Kittel over 13 minutes down. What a terrible TDU he has had, dead last on the GC and hopeless on all the stages. This time last year he was winning a sprint stage in the Tour De San Luis, beating Boonen, Ventoso and Ferrar, now he's rolling in 6th last and 3rd last in his last two stages. 

This will be the day that decides the overall winner, as was expected, on a stage that is exactly the same as last year's which was won in spectacular fashion by Richie Porte. It's also the same stage as in 2013 when Simon Gerrans escaped with Tom Jelte Slagter - Gerrans won the stage but Slagter took enough time to take the Ochre jersey which he held on to on the final day crit around Adelaide. 

After a very short neutral zone it's straight in to the long straight roads that take them past the base of Willunga Hill and on to 3 circuits of the loop that takes them out to the coast road for 6kms where they pass the sprint prime twice and back up to McLaren Vale. On the third time they come to Willunga they go up the climb for the first time with 26kms to go.

The first time up will probably see some attacks go in chase of the early breakaway and Sky will look to make this as hard a stage as possible, but the real action will come on the last lap. There will be a scrap at the bottom of the climb to get team leaders and GC contenders in to position and expect the likes of Sky, BMC and OGE to drill it hard at the bottom to thin the peloton out. Willunga Hill is 3kms  long at an average of 7%, starting at the big gum tree on the left hand side of the road. The first part of the climb is the steepest, averaging over 8%, with parts over 10%. 

After that the road settles down a little bit to average around 6% as it winds its way up the mountain. The locals know they have reached the top when they pass the large crown painted on the road (right!). It doesn't really ease up until the last 50m when they turn left on to the finishing straight. 

To me, Richie Porte has a lot more than just a stage win on the line here. He has been talking up his form (as has the team and connections) for several weeks now and it would be a bit of a disaster to say the least for Sky if they don't come away from this race with at least a stage win, if not the overall. But he really could land the double today - he sprinted away from them all last year on a climb that is perfectly suited to him - not too steep, but just steep enough. Sky will make it hard today, you would think, but it's worth bearing in mind one of their biggest engines, Ian Stannard, took a tumble in that crash yesterday.. he seemed to land 'soft' though so he's probably ok. 

I think Porte will take off around the same spot again and try to do exactly as he did last year. The thing is, it's not exactly going to be a surprise is it? BMC will try to be all over his wheel, but I think they may struggle to go with him. Evans couldn't hold his wheel last year, I don't think he's faster this year.. Dennis may not have the pace to go with him on a climb like this, he was too far back and got distanced a little when the climbers did their thing on Paracombe, but recovered once the road flattened out a little. This road doesn't flatten out until about 50m to go so he may find this a lot harder. If Porte can get a an 12" gap again and takes the 10 bonus seconds, then he will leapfrog Dennis in to the leader's jersey, no matter where Dennis finishes. 

One who I think could do very well tomorrow, and I'm hoping so for my 33/1 on him each-way for the overall, is Domenico Pozzovivo. He looked sharp and punchy on the steeper parts of Paracombe but just as he was starting to push it the road flattened out a bit and he was unable to push on. This climb is far more his style though and I think if there is anyone can go with Porte, Pozzovivo has to be right up there in contention. He is 10/1 with Ladbrokes and I think he could well be in the top 3 at worst. 

Daryl Impey is still in with a shout - he did brilliantly on this climb last year and wasn't far behind Porte and Evans and co. If he can stay close enough and if he has picked up bonus seconds along the way too he could well move up to a podium spot. It will probably require both of the BMC guys to fade on the climb and that's a tall ask, but I think he is capable of a top 6 today. If he can stay on the wheels of the leaders all the way though he could win the stage and put himself in with a shot at winning the overall tomorrow. 

There are plenty others who could go well here like LL Sanchez (although he looked tired yesterday when he attacked), Izagirre, Fernandez and Rogers. An outsider I like the look of though at a big 66/1 is Jarlinson Pantano of IAM Cycling. Earlier in the week his directeur sportif Kjell Carlström said.  “We are looking forward to Saturday’s stage because the final climb will be longer and much better for him.  We really want to work for him because he’s our best option for the general classification here at the Tour Down Under.” On the climb to Paracombe, a climb which really was too short for him, he finished in 14th place, only 13" behind Porte. 

Pantano himself is bullish of his chances on Willunga, he said after the stage to Paracombe "I know that Saturday I can really play my game because I feel very good and the profile of the finish will be more to my advantage.” At 66/1 he is worth a bet.

Recommendations:

Set your alarm clock for 4am, this is going to be a cracking finish!

2pts win on Richie Porte at 5/2 with BetVictor

0.5pts each-way on Domenico Pozzovivo at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Jarlinson Pantano at 66/1 with Bet365

 

Stage 6 

King William Road, Adelaide, 90kms

Sunday 25th January 

The race finishes with its customary crit around Adelaide with 20 laps of a 4.5km circuit, but in a completely different  André Greipel won last year's stage in a sprint finish after a great lead out by his Lotto-Belisol team, including Jurgen Roelandts as last man who picked up 8th place. That took his career total to an incredible 18 victories. He is of course missing this year so it's over to his German compatriot Kittel to pick up the mantle.

Having said that though, Kittel's form for the TDU last year was pretty poor, again missing out on the sprint finish, ending up some 27" behind the winner. His finishing positions last year were 134, 122, 100, 72, 123, 76 - and this was despite winning the people's choice classic just the week before. And now as we well know, his form this year has been just as poor, with finishes of 106, 124, 120, 129, 32.

It's a pretty straight and mostly flat course with only 7 bends to really have to negotiate in the 4.5kms circuit. There is a KOM point though as they go past the Golf Links on Montefliore Hill, there are points up for grabs on Lap 10 and Lap 15. There is a little bit of a chicane with a left and a right kink with 500m to go as they hit the bridge over the Torrens. The big battle for positions though will start in earnest on the long straight back down King William Road as they head in to the final 2.5kms and the sharp left and three right hand bends.

The sprinters will also have to be on their toes as they crest Montefliore Hill for the last time as the non-sprinters will use it as a launching pad for an escape attempt as there are less than 1,500m to go once over the top. It is just a long drag though rather than anything too steep on a well-surfaced and wide dual carriageway, so you would expect the sprinters teams to just keep the pace extremely high at the front to try to neutralise attacks.

Marcel Kittel has opened the 5/6 favourite and once again we are in the dilemma as to whether to back him or not. The form book should suggest we stay well away from him but we all know that if they get it right, he wins. I thought that last year too though and he rolled home in 76th place. I just can't trust him again given the nature of the course with that little hill in there, they are sure to really push it hard in an effort to get rid of him for most of the last part of the stage. I think he will be friendless and he could well go off odds against. I'm looking to lay him at odds on if possible. 

JJ Lobato, winner of stage 2 is officially down as having finished 80th in the sprint on stage 4 but of course that is because he got stuck behind the crash. As it was unfolding though he was in 16th place, quite a bit off the front as you can see in the picture below. As a result, he got caught behind the falling Manzin and although he almost made it through he got sideswiped by a falling Martin Tjallingii and came down too. He may not be 100% after that incident so I'm going to pass on him at just 9/1.

Niccolo Bonifazio might have a chance of a top 3 tonight if things fall well for him, but at around 14/1 I'd rather be on Steele Von Hoff given the turn of pace he has shown in the National Criterium Championships and on Stage 4. Confidence must be sky high amongst the UniSA team with the way they have performed this week and I fancy him to go out with all guns blazing here.

I've given up on Nizzolo, watch him win tonight now.. Heinrich Haussler should be involved at the finish but again at just 16/1 I'm prepared to leave him, I think he will be 6th to 10th. Wouter Wippert did well on Stage 4 but the crash surely helped flatter his position and he was fading at the end and was passed easily by Von Hoff and Impey. Daryl Impey has been very strong in the sprints this week and could well look to go out on a high too after two very close calls on stage 2 and 4. 28/1 might be worth a small interest as he might be capable of a top 3 again.

Gianni Meersman looks very big at 40/1 but on a faster, flatter sprint he might be outpaced. Instead, I think he will be asked to work for Aussie Mark Renshaw who has had a very quite race. He has been miles off the pace this week with 75th his best placing (although that was because of the crash) but I think they will look to give him a go at this sprint finish. 22/1 is worth a small investment too.

In fact, shortly after publishing this preview I came across this story on Cyclingnews, which shows that Renshaw is indeed up for it tonight - "He (Meersman) is a missing a little bit, compared to what he wanted to be here," Renshaw said. "(For Sunday) we will have a chat and I might throw my hat into the ring. It's always a stage I like so we will see how it goes." I also took 0.3pts win at 25/1 on Betfair. 

So nothing big tonight, a few small bets scattered around for a bit of fun, this could be another messy sprint and any one of about 10 guys could win it. Was good to get a winner on the boards last night with Porte, finally!

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Steele Von Hoff at 14/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Mark Renshaw at 22/1 with Bet365 (+0.3pts win at 25/1 on Betfair)

0.5pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 28/1 with Boylesports

Lay Marcel Kittel at odds on if possible.. (Update: Have had 2pts matched at 1.87 to win 2.3pts)

 

Match Bet: 

Von Hoff to beat Wippert - 1pt at 4/5 with Bet365