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- Published on Wednesday, 27 August 2014 22:56
Vuelta a España St. 6
Benalmádena to La Zubia
Thursday August 28th, 167.1kms
Stage 6 finally gives us a real chance to see how the GC favourites match up to each other, who has good legs and who hasn't as they hit the first summit finish of the Vuelta. After a dead flat opening 50km or so it suddenly rises upwards with 5 climbs to crest (three categorised) on the way to La Zubia.
A good day today - Degenkolb landed the stage and both bets for me to net 5.23pts and get us back to winning ways. It looked a bit worrying for a while when Dan Martin missed the split for my GC bet but thankfully Garmin-Sharp got him back in and he didn't seem to have had to do to much work ahead stage 6. He sat in and recovered for the remainder of the day.
It has been pretty much stalemate so far in the GC for the first 5 stages. The only GC candidate really showing his hand so far has been Dan Martin, sprinting away from them all on stage 3 to take second behind Matthews and sprinting to 5th on stage 5. Whether he will pay for those shows of strength when it matters most, or whether it was just him showing that he is indeed, as he put it before the race, 'in the best shape I have ever been' remains to be seen.
Froome, Contador, Quintana and Rodriguez couldn't have asked for a better opening 5 stages to get them tuned up, it's been fast, it's been hot but it has not been overly difficult. For Froome and Contador it has allowed them to get some great racing in to the legs after their lay-offs without any problems or issues. The only rider that has really had any issues so far was Valverde who was caught behind Castroviejo's stupid musette crash and as a result lost 7" on the stage. But as he said himself, 7" is nothing. He tried to make amends yesterday with another attack like he made in the Clasica (even had Adam Yates with him) but he didn't get very far.
The exceptions really to those who have been going well have been Carlos 'Chubby' Betancur who sits 3rd last on the GC, 39'10" down, Thibaut Pinot who is 24'15" down in 177th place (but as I said before the race started had been in bed with a fever) and Peter Sagan who looks like a rider leaving for a new team and is only interested in preparing for a shot at taking the World Champions jersey with him when he goes. No doubt there is probably some sort of bonus clause written in that pays extra if he rides in the rainbow stripes next year.
The Route
So we finally get a little serious, without really hitting the 'high' mountains. They start off on a leisurely cruise along the Mediterranean coast, through Malaga before turning inland at Torre del Mar at the 46km point. From there it start to slope gently upwards at first as they head in to the heart of the province of Granada. They skirt around the highest points of the Parque Natural Sierras de Tejeda but it still gets steep and hard pretty quickly.
The first climb is 12km long, the Alto de Zaffariya and it's a Cat 2 climb which averages 5.8% and it should see the first thinning out of the weaker riders. The climb actually drags on for another 8kms until the feed zone at the peak, which hits the 1000m level. From their they hit two similar climbs over the next 30kms, only one of which is categorised, the Alto de Los Bermejales. This is a short sharp one at just 5.8kms at 5.2% and we should see the second selection made here as we could see the likes of Movistar, Sky or Tinkoff-Saxo push it ahead of the plateau leading to the final climb up to La Zubia.
At this point though there probably has been a break build up a decent lead, probably from before they started up the first climb of the day. Once over the Bermjales the chase will be on to reel them in before the final climb of the day up to La Zubia as several will have stage win ambitions. For the next 45kms though it is descending to flat so some riders may be able to get back on in time for the two sprint points which come in quick succession after 145kms and 153kms. Michael Matthews might have been able to hang in this long to claim these points, but I can't see him being involved at the finish though.
The final climb will be a very exciting finish though - 4.6kms at an average of 7.8%, but it does have a flat spot of about 500m near the bottom. Starting at the steepest parts, which hit 12.8% with 3.5kms to go it averages closer to 11% in the final run in. It doesn't ease at all with the final 500m at 10%. It is one for the light, punchy climbers to show their stuff and we should see some small time gaps, but nothing massive between the main GC men unless they are on a bad day.
Route Map
Profile
Alto Cumbres Verdes. La Zubia
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
The stage is bound to see a break go early, possibly long before they hit the first slopes after Torre del Mar and we could see a 6-8 minute gap grow as the peloton bides their time ahead of the big action. Between kilometres 70 and 120 though we should see the break start to slow and the head of the peloton speed up as teams get their GC men in position and start to push on to thin out the stragglers.
I think the break has about a 10% chance of staying away as it's possible that the GC men look at each other and their teams look to just control things before the final blast up to La Zubia. Some may fancy the stage of course, but it may be that the GC men are more worried/interested in the final climb and not just from the small time differences that may appear (or possibly big depending on who's not going well) but also from the psychological point of performing on the first real GC test.
Picking who is going to be in the break is nearly going to be impossible, but a few long shots that could be involved are Amets Txurruka (100/1), Luis Angel Maté, a Garmin rider for reasons I'll come to later like Millar, Haas or Brown, Jose Serpa, or Johann Tschopp.
We are sure to see a big showdown between the GC men - but who can win the stage if the break has been reeled in? Nairo Quintana will love this finish, but is it coming a little too early for him in the race? It can sometimes take him a while to really fire and this might be a bit too explosive for him this early. Joaquim Rodriguez is the hot favourite for this stage too after the Clasica and his 3rd place on stage 3, he was flying at the finish, but couldn't match Matthews or Martin despite good work from his team-mates to make the initial surge that kickstarted the final accelerations. He is one of the best in the world at these kinds of finishes, requiring an explosive attack inside the last 3kms or so. But at 2/1 best he seems a little tight to me.
This is also a bit steep maybe for Chris Froome this early, but then again he tends to go well early in races like in the first stage of the TDF when he took 6th place up the hill to Harrogate, and when he took the stage to La Planch des Belles Filles in last year's TDF around this point in the race. He is 7/1 with Ladbrokes but I think place money only at best with that one.
Alberto Contador - this is going to be the interesting one though - he has been putting on a good show so far, staying prominent and near the front quite a lot and doesn't on the face of it appear to be showing too much discomfort or problems with his leg injury. This is a different story altogether though as the 12.8% gradient with 3kms to go will really show us what condition the leg is in. At just under 4kms it's not too long but it will be taken at a rapid pace with the probability of multiple attacks he will be put under real pressure. He would ordinarily be in probably the top 5 possibilities for this stage but even at a very tempting 25/1 I'm not willing to take a shot on him today without knowing how well his leg really is, we might get better chances later in the race.
The one I really have been waiting to back for this though, ever since he sprinted up that hill on Stage 3 is Dan Martin, and this is why I think a Garmin rider will be put in the early break - to make others chase and let Garmin sit in. He is indeed looking like he is in the form of his life and if he attacks like he did Monday up that final climb he may well distance all of them. He was unlucky that day that it was sprinter Matthews who stuck with him, it was his stage otherwise. He also proved in the Tour de L'Ain that he is climbing well and I think this finish is perfect for him.
That final climb is a little like the finish in Fleche-Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege and we know how he flies up those climbs, he even has the beating of Rodriguez based on their LBL form. I think he can wait until the last kilometre and blast away from them, but he also seems capable of marking other moves when they come and may sit on the likes of Rodriguez if they try to take it up a little further out and then jump again near the finish. I was hoping for 10/1 or bigger given the number of high quality guys in the race, but the best I could do was get 0.8pts matched at 9/1 on Betfair early on, but I'm also taking the 7/1 each-way that is still available with Boylesports (if their site ever comes back up and if I can get more than £1.25 each-way with them) but there is also 13/2 with Ladbrokes.
But we also have a bunch of other guys who could get involved now the road kicks upward - Adam Yates is one for OGE but they also have Johan Esteban Chaves. Yates has been active - chasing down Valverde on Stage 4 for his team-mate Matthews showed he has good legs. This sort of finish will suit him well too and we are sure to see him prominent as they hit the final climb. He may have the freedom to attack with Chaves sitting with the GC guys. Chaves is a bit of an unknown to many but he is a quality climber, and can be quite explosive. Winner of a stage on Mountain high with a big attack near the summit he also took a stage of the Tour de Suisse to Verbier. They were slightly longer and lower percentages so it will be interesting to see how he does on an explosive finish like this with a higher quality field.
Dani Moreno of Katusha is sure to like this finish too, it just depends on whether he is allowed do his own thing tomorrow or whether he has to look after Purito. If he has a free hand he could be one of those riders that might make the final break attempts with the likes of Martin. Others who could be involved include Julian Arredondo, Sammy Sanchez and Rigo Uran. Another 'dark horse' if you could call him that would be Cadel Evans who has won on La Zubia before back in 2008 in the Vuelta a Andalucia. That's a long time ago and it was on a slightly lower finish but Cadel showed in Utah that he is in great shape and could well be near the front here.
Recommendations:
Dan Martin - 1pt each-way at 7/1 or 13/2 with Ladbrokes if I can't get 1pt on with Boyles
Dan Martin - 0.8pts win at 9/1 on Betfair
0.125pts each-way on Amets Txurruka at 100/1 with Boylesports
Adam Yates - 0.5pts each-way at 25/1 with Ladbrokes
Match Bets
Dan Martin to beat Rodriguez - 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365
Esteban Chaves to beat Pardilla - 2pts @ 4/7 with Bet365
Esteban Chaves to beat Pardilla, Landa to beat Caruso, Tschopp to beat Pinot, Herrada to beat CA Sorensen - 1pt pays 4.1/1 with Bet365
'Hail Mary' acca - Martin to beat Rodriguez, Tschopp to beat Pinot, Herrada to beat CA Sorensen, Landa to beat Caruso, Aru to beat Arroyo, Esteban Chaves to beat Pardilla, Evans to beat Gesink - 0.3pts on the Acca, it pays 32.2/1
