Details: Published on Friday, 04 July 2014 00:02

TDF - Other Betting Markets

How many riders will finish? Winning margin?

These are just some of the myriad of betting opportunities that are available on the Tour de France. It's unlike any other race of the year from a betting point of view as it is almost bewildering the amount of different markets to choose from. I just wish that the bookies would put in such an effort for all other big races during the year!

I've already gone through my GC predictions and my other Jerseys predictions, here I will take a quick run through some of the other markets that are available to try and pick out some value betting opportunities.

Team Classification

Last year Tinkoff-Saxo won by over 8 minutes from AG2R and 9 minutes from Radioshack- Leopard. Movistar were 22 minutes back in 4th place, but the favourites for the prize lost all hope of winning the team prize with the disaster on the road to St Amand Montrond in stage 13.

This year, it's pretty tight at the top of the betting with Astana best priced 3/1, Tinkoff-Saxo best priced 4/1 and AG2R best priced 9/2. Then it's Sky at 8/1, Movistar at 10/1. The times of the three best placed rider on every stage is added together, so this can be a really tricky market to try to call. It's the mountain stages of course where the big differences will be made, but don't count out the importance of the TT as there could be big time gaps there as well.

Astana have a good team here but to me are poor 3/1 favourites. Yes, Nibali should be up there taking good time on most of the Mountain stages.. but what if he fails to perform? They are in big trouble then. Who else can finish high up regularly for them to score good times consistently? Fuglsang, Grivko, Iglinskiy, Scarponi and Kangert maybe but they don't fill me with confidence.

To me Tinkoff -Saxo look a lot more appealling. Contador, Roche and Rogers should finish high up on most stages and the likes of Majka, Paulinho and Hernadez won't be far behind. Paulinho, Roche and Majka are also possible break candidates so they could gain some time that way too. At 4/1 they look the likely winners to me.

AG2R are an interesting one to though - 2nd last year, and with a better squad this year to last, they should be there or thereabouts at the top also. With Bardet, Riblon, Minard, Peraud they have some quality riders that could finish top 20 on most stages. But will they be outgunning T-S? I'm not convinced. Peraud can be hit and miss and could disappear. Riblon is getting old and has done nothing of note this year..

Sky could well take this prize too with a very strong team. Froome will do well, as will Porte as his last man standing on the road, but their problem is that they run their team-mates in to the ground to set the furious tempo Froome wants, but then they literally explode and die. As a result they are often way down on time at the finish. But this year with Nieve, Zandio and Lopez they have guys who can finish a lot closer and maybe even go up the road on some stages like Nieve in the Criterium. At Boylesports where they are 8/1 they might be worth an investment each-way.

Movistar has added climbing firepower with the addition of John Gadret and along with Valverde, Herrada and Izagirre they have a pretty strong looking squad too. At 7/1 they might be a bit tight though, Valverde could do well but the rest could let him down.

Recommendation: 1pt win on Tinkoff-Saxo at 4/1.

Top 3/Top 10 markets

These are tough markets to bet on as there is very little value to be had generally and there is usually ltd opportunities for surprises. The top two guys are like 1/3 to finish in the top 3, no interest in that. Nibali, one of the most likely, obviously, to finish on the 3rd step of the podium is only 5/4 to do so, so little value there too. Valverde is 9/4, but I can't see it happening for him, Talansky 5/1 but I think he will be 5th or 6th or so. The only two that look a bit attractive to me are Porte to sneak on to a podium spot on Froome's coat-tails, or JVDB to fulfill his potential and promise and deliver this year. He is confident, his team is confident and he is really fired up for this. Porte is 10/1 and JVDB is 7/1

In the top 10 markets, Romain Bardet at 6/4 with BetVictor looks worth taking asI think he will have a really good Tour and I'm pretty confident he can top 10 here. I also like the 13/8 on Richie Porte with Paddy Power - I think Porte will have a good Tour too, he could really surprise a few people considering his year to date. I think he can do very well on the climbs, he's apparently flying, and the final TT should suit him too.

Recommendation - No bet for now on top 3, wait and make a decision after stage 5 or 7.. For top 10 market, Romain Bardet - 2pts win at 6/4 with BetVictor, 4pts on Richie Porte at 13/8 with PP

Straight Forecast

For those of you who want to back Froome, but think that evens is a little short, and you also think that Contador will be his nearest challenger, then the straight forecast of Froome 1st / Contador 2nd is the bet for you at 7/4 with Skybet! If you fancy it to be the other way around it is 5/2 with Boylesports.

Winning Margin

There's even betting on the winning margin of the winner.. doesn't matter who first and second are, just the time gap between them. My thoughts on this beforehand were that it was going to be pretty tight - I think there won't be huge time gaps between Froome, Contador, Nibali and the like and it could well be that it is less than two minutes going in to the TT. The betting has under two minutes as the 4/6 favourite and you'd think that if Contador and Froome duke it out on most stages and stay around a minute or less apart then there's probably less than a minute also between them on the TT. If you fancy either of them to have some really good days and put more than two minutes of a gap, then maybe the 2-3 mins gap at 7/2 might be worth a bet.

To me this is a no bet for now, under 2 minutes is most likely but I'm not interested in the 4/6.

Number of Finishers

This is an interesting one and a bet that I have had success on in the past. The line in the sand seems to be 165.5 riders as Paddy Power and Skybet are betting 5/6 under 165.5 riders and 5/6 over 165.5 riders. If you don't know what this bet is, it's simply, how many riders will actually finish the race - 165 or less or 166 or more.

There are 198 riders starting the race - how many do we think will finish it? Well there are probably 3 or 4 will abandon because of illness. 6 or 8 will abandon due to crash injuries - the question is, how many will climb off because of fatigue and exhaustion? I think it could be quite high this year - we may get more crashes than usual in the first three stages in England, especially if it rains, and Stage 5 over the cobbles could be carnage. There could be 2 or three abandons alone that day.

The big decider though could be the time limits on the short, tough mountain stage - stages 17 and 18 could have very tight time limits and they could catch a lot of guys out. I think it is feasible that we get 20+ abandon due to fatigue and time limits and I'm thinking it might be under the 165 mark come the final day.

Recommendation: Back under 165.5 finishers at 5/6 for 3pts with Skybet or Paddy Power.

'To win/not win a Stage'

There is betting available on whether a rider will win, or not win a stage in the TDF, I'm mostly interested in the 'will not win' part as there is a bit more value there, but sometimes the 'to win a stage' bets can be interesting too.

Alejandro Valverde: To win a stage - 10/11, to not win a stage - 11/10. Valverde is reportedly flying at the moment, says he has never felt better. Winner of the Spanish national TT, and then let his team-mate Izagirre win the road race, he will be calling on that favour to be returned from him in the Tour.. I think he may struggle to stay with Froome and Contador and lose time which will mean later in the race he could be on the hunt for a stage win to save his race. He also has a chance on Stage 2 you'd think. Stage 14 could suit him as could 17 which dips in to Spain along the way. Although I think 11/10 might be worth backing, you might get better value by just backing him to win those stages on the day at prices bigger than 10/1.

André Greipel: to win a stage - 4/6, to not win a stage - 11/10 with Paddy Power. I think Greipel will be overshadowed by his German compatriot Kittel, Cavendish, Sagan and possibly the likes of Démare and Kristoff. I think he could leave empty handed at the end of the race, so 11/10 to not win a stage is the bet here. 2pts win.

Arnaud Démare to not win a stage - 4/9 is the bet here. 2pts win.

Christophe Riblon: 4/7 to not win a stage has to be the bet I think, I am not sure he can pull it off this year like he did on the Alpe last year.. I don't think I can bring myself to back it though as I am a fan of his and would be very upset if he got in a break and I was willing him to lose!

Fabian Cancellara - 2/1 to win a stage - If you think he will win a stage, then you are probably thinking it's going to be stage 5 to Arenberg over the Paris-Roubaix cobbles. Well then just back him on the day as he will probably be bigger than 2/1.

Joaquim Rodriguez: To win a stage - 10/11 with BetVictor. Purito will probably take a week or so to get going due to his lack of training and the fact that he tends to get better as this race goes on. He has plenty of opportunities though in the second half of the race and I think he will be out of GC contention by then and will be stage hunting instead. If he can hang in there with the faster GC boys his finishing kick could deliver a stage for him.

John Degenkolb to win a stage - 2/1 with Bet365 - I think John has a few chances to win a stage, including stage 1, possibly 2, 11, 12 and 19. I think the 2/1 is worth a small investment - 1pt win.

Marcel Kittel: over 2.5 stages at 8/11 with Paddy Power - I think Kittel will have a great Tour - he could win on the Mall on stage 3, should win on the Champs Élysées on the final day and will surely pick up a stage along the way too. 2pts win bet at 8/11.

Mark Cavendish: Under 1.5 stage wins at 7/4 appeals to me based on my thoughts above about Kittel.. if 8/11 is a good bet on Kittel winning lots, then it means Cav is not and he could be restricted to just one stage victory.. 1pt win on Cav to win less than 2 stages at 7/4 with BetVictor

Nicholas Roche: 9/4 to win a stage appeals a little bit to me but I think I'll look at the individual stages he might win and back him there instead around 40/1 or bigger.

Peter Sagan to win 2 stages or more - 8/13 with Paddy Power. This bet could well land inside the first two stages!

Pierre Rolland: not to win a stage - 5/6 with Paddy Power. I backed him at 8/13 to not win a stage at the Giro and that landed and I think he will leave the Tour empty handed again. He will be on the attack, but I think he will either be caught before the finish, or if he is with any sort of breakaway companions he will probably be done in the sprint. 2pts win on no stage for Rolland at 5/6.

Richie Porte: to win a stage - 6/1 with Bet365. This is a speculative one - that either one day Froome and Porte drop everyone and Froome lets him take the sage win, or alternatively, as he is going so well he is let go to try his luck for a stage win if Froome is sitting comfortable (or possibly if he is not and team orders change. ) And given what I know about how well he is going at the moment 6/1 is worth a crack. 1pt win.