Details: Published on Saturday, 26 July 2014 23:24

Tour de France St. 21

Évry to Paris-Champs Élysées

Sunday July 27th, 137.5kms

The final procession, the final sprint, the final chance of glory for the sprinters. For some, today's TT was brutally hard as they were racing for placings on the stage and in the GC. For others though, they had a nice easy day, rolling in at their leisure with tomorrow's stage in mind!

A brilliant day today with Dumoulin doing an absolutely storming ride to deliver the best possible result for us with him taking 2nd place to land the 'without Martin' bets at 11/2, the each-way at 20/1 (1/3 the odds) and the 5/2 on the top 3 placing to return 14.77pts in profit. I did lay out of Dumoulin in-play at an average of 1.2 to give away 0.5pts though as a hedge, but I also layed 3pts of Nibali at average odds of 1.81 (posted on twitter) so my total profit on the day was just over 17pts.

tom dumoulin TT

Unfortunately the match bets were atrocious and I apologise for that, logical reasoning went out the window with them with Oss riding to a 10th place finish and Velits finishing 16th. I did point out Barta as being ridiculously big (250/1) with Betfred but they weren't betting each-way, so even if you wanted to back him to place you wouldn't have been able to! What an incredible ride from him though to beat the likes of Nibali and Van Garderen. As predicted, Nibali took it easy today, seemingly coasting at times on descents and in to corners, yet he still finished 4th on the stage! So the match bets lost 5pts which is a disappointment, but still finished around 12pts up on the day to land our 9th profitable day in a row.

And the magnificent performance from Pinot (coupled with the crap ride by Valverde) meant that it looks like my 200/1 each-way on Pinot for the GC I added on the 13th July has landed too. A very nice surprise right at the end of this race. And if any of you followed the advice on the Stage 16 preview to back Peraud to finish in the top 3 at 7/2 then that one is a winner also!

What a Race we have had

It's been a pretty amazing Tour. Right from the unbelievable scenes and support through Yorkshire, Sheffield and on to London, through the Cobbles, the Vosges, the Alps and the Pyrenées. There has been unbelievable drama on nearly every single stage and one man has emerged head and shoulders above the rest with a commanding lead to show for his performances over the cobbles and the mountains.

Vincenzo is not a Froome, came from nowhere to win the Tour in two years kind of rider. He is a remarkably consistent rider who has won the Vuelta and the Giro (and finished 2nd in the Giro in '11), Tirreno-Adriatico and Giro del Trentino twice and is the current Italian National champion. To try to diminish his victory because Froome and Contador (and Quintana you could add..) weren't here is unfair I think.

Froome and Contador were unlucky but Nibali made his own luck and stayed upright. Porte, who looked like becoming his closest rival was struck down with illness at the worst possible time. And with regards to Quintana, it's entirely possible that he may have struggled on the cobbles too. There's always next year as they say and let's just hope that all of these guys come to the start line fit and healthy next year, as if you add in Bardet, Pinot and Van Garderen, it could be an unbelievable race.

There have been some incredible performances too. Marcel Kittel with his hat-trick of stage wins inside the first 4 days. Nibali's sensational attack on stage 2 to Sheffield and his performance over the cobbles with Fuglsang and Westra. Lars Boom who rode clever and strong to snatch the stage from Astana's hard work. Kadri's solo win to Gerardmer on stage 8. Tony Martin's sensational solo effort on stage 9, Nibali's attack on La Planche des Belles Filles and Pinot chasing him home.

Tony Gallopin's fantastic attack on the run in to Oyonnax to hold off the chasing pack (but deny my bet on Degenkolb..) Kristoff's two stage wins, Tinkoff-Saxo's emergence with an amazing plan B to land three stages and the Polka Dots jersey - Majka, Rogers and Roche were fantastic in delivering for Oleg. Nibali's demolition job on stage 19 and I am writing this predicting a demolition job by Martin in the Time Trial today.

So on to the final stage and the champagne drinking photo ops on the way to Paris.

The Route

Not much to say about the route, they will only race once within about 60kms of the finish as they approach the finishing circuit. There will be plenty of attacks as usual but one attack I am hoping will happen will be from Jens Voigt as they get on to the circuit - on his last TDF it would be a fitting and emotional moment for him to have a few laps going around Paris soaking in the crowds well wishes.

It's the usual finishing circuit in Paris up and down the Champs Élysées, you can see it below in the tabs.

Route Map

tdf-stage21-map

Profile

Closing Kilometres

Contenders and Favourites

kittel-wins-dublin-giro-stage3 No point in beating around the bush, I think Marcel Kittel wins plain and simple. There are no hills for him to be dropped on, he will have his whole team working for him and they will be buzzing after Dumoulin's great ride today. I backed him against Cav last year at 7/2 but there is nothing like that available this year - he is best priced 4/5 with William Hill, but generally 4/6. They can let Lotto-Belisol, Cannondale and Katusha fight amongst themselves for the last 10kms and take control inside the last 2kms to deliver him to that last right hander as they approach the final straight.

He will be delivered expertly by Dumoulin, Curvers, de Kort and Veelers and he will kick again with 300m or so to go. The delivery last year was absolutely textbook and if they do the same this year I can't see him being passed. Time to play up some winnings from today with a big bet on him!

Last year André Greipel chased him home but never managed to get closer than about a half a bikelength to him. I think he could well fill second place again this year just behind his young compatriot. He got over his dodgy start to the race to land a stage win and could well have done something on the stage when Chavanel got tangled with him and put him on the floor. He has struggled in some sprints though, but they tended to be the messy ones with poor weather as well, he should have no such problems tomorrow, the forecast is good and the sprint on the Champs he knows very well. Take the 5/4 on Betfair that he comes in the top 3 and also the 2/1 to come 2nd to Kittel looks interesting.

Alexander Kristoff has come out of this Tour with a lot to be pleased about. Two stage wins is a great haul and he is establishing himself as the tough sprinter for tough days. Tomorrow though is all about pure speed and he may find a few too fast for him. Peter Sagan will probably moonwalk naked while on his bike as a celebration if he wins, he has been saving his big celebration routine he had planned for the whole race.. He is clearly disappointed at not having won a stage despite running away with the Green Jersey and getting a hatful of top 5 finishes. I think though he will have to settle for 4th - 6th place tomorrow.

This stage sometimes throws up surprise placings, just look at Boasson-Hagen in 2011 and Steegmans winning in 2008.. I can't see any really big surprises tomorrow, but one guy who could come close is Arnaud Démare, if he is 100% fit and healthy again. He finished 73rd today, which although is pretty poor, was still better than more than half the field, so he can't be too bad. The other thing which may complicate his leadout is the requirement to look after Pinot and get him safely over the finishing line. They will probably deploy 2 or 3 to stick near him so Démare might find himself light of support in the closing kms so I think I might leave him.

One who will get great support though, and especially from one of the unsung heroes of the Tour, Kevin Reza, is Bryan Coquard. Europecar have been a bit all over the place with lots of pointless attacks and strange tactics, but one constant has been Kevin Reza's presence at the front no matter what the terrain. I wouldn't be surprised to see him looming large near the front as they hit the 1km to go point with Coquard in his wheel. If he can deliver him to Greipel or Kittel's wheel with 600m to go he has a chance of a top 3. At 33/1 he could be the surprise outsider to fill the 3rd spot on the podium.

Oleg Tinkoff seems to think Daniele Bennati will win on Sunday, something he has done before, way back in 2007 when he beat Hushovd while riding for Lampre-Fondital. It's a big ask though now to see him outsprint Kittel or Greipel, but Saxo-Tinkoff will certainly work their socks off to get him in the right position, Roche, Rogers and co are flying at the moment and could well put him close enough if he is good enough. I don't think he is good enough though, but I am going to wait and see what sort of price he is in play with Bet365 for the '4th-9th place' market they offer.

OPQS are sure to be present coming through the last few kilometres and hitting the last few bends near the front, with Martin and co. powering home to try to set up Mark Renshaw.. The only problem is that Renshaw is no Mark Cavendish and I can't see him getting in to the top 3 - another for the 4th-9th place bet in-play I think.

I hope you have enjoyed the previews and have had a few winning bets along the way, it's been tough at times with some surprise results getting in the way of some very nice wins but 9 profitable days in a row have kept the bank ticking over. Thank you for subscribing and I hope we land another winner tomorrow. Ian.

Recommendations:

Marcel Kittel - 6pts win at 4/5 on Betfair

André Greipel - 1.5pts to finish in the top 3 at 5/4 on Betfair

André Greipel - 1pt in the 'Without Kittel' Market at 2/1 on Betfair

Forecast bet with Skybet - Kittel/Greipel - 0.5pts at 11/2

Match Bets

Davide Cimolai to beat Zak Dempster - 1pt at 4/6 with Paddy Power

Bennati to beat Navardauskas - 2pts at 4/7 with Skybet