Details: Published on Thursday, 24 July 2014 23:00

TDF Stage 19

Maubourguet Pays du Val d'Adour to Bergerac

Friday July 25th, 208.5kms

After some massive days in the mountains and some memorable performances from Tinkoff-Saxo and Nibali, the peloton finally gets some respite as the riders face a relatively easy day heading north out of Maubourguet Pays de pal d'Adour up to Bergerac.

nibali-yellow-hautacam A good day again today with Nibali doing almost exactly what I expected and dropping everyone on the final climb to land the 9/4 comfortably. What I didn't expect was him to go with a full 10kms to go, and for it to be Chris Horner that kicked him in to action!

But when he did go it was quite unbelieveable, and I hate to say it, like one of those performances of 'old'. He pulled away so easily and closed down 45" to Nieve in a matter of minutes (who to be fair was pedalling squares) and shot past Nieve, going about 10kmph faster. I really hope what we were seeing was a genuine, super performance but when he goes and beats the times of known dopers and his own time in 2008 up the Hautacam by almost four minutes it's bound to raise eyebrows and questions. Let's just imagine it was Froome did that today, we'd have had a twitter meltdown by now and the press would be tearing in to him. Nibali seems to be getting off light this year in comparison.

WIth Majka sitting calmly at the back of the chasing group for quite a while, it even looked like Nibali might take the KOM jersey as Majka needed to finish in the first 6.. he even drifted out to around evens in-play and I was feeling pleased with myself for laying him at 1.14 last night, as I would have won twice as much on Nibali winning as Majka. But then he attacked and did what needed to be done impressively.

So all to play for still for the remaining podium spots behind Nibali, the final TT will be fascinating. Rubbish day on the match bets front, Van den Broeck had a shocker today, losing nearly 14 minutes, Ten Dam finished in a three man group with Zubledia but couldn't beat him and Nieve blew his chance of beating Horner with his attack that was reeled in.. he finished only 5 places behind him though..

The Route

There isn't much to say about this profile, The first 120kms or so is mostly downhill to flat, passing through Condom on the way, which is sure to present Liggett and Kirby with some embarassing statement opportunities!

The intermediate sprint comes after 130kms at Tonneins. The last 25kms or so become a little bit lumpy and contain around four little lumps, of which only one is a categorised climb, and that's only a Cat 4 climb to the Côte de Montbazilac which they crest with just 13kms to go. It may only be a Cat 4 - but it is a nasty little shock at the end of a relatively flat day - hitting an average of 7.6% for the 1.3kms. At the top they go along a flat bit for about 2.5kms before a narrow, fast descent for 2.2kms. As the peloton will be strung out going over the top and the road is fast and narrow it's going to be hard to make up places on the way to the finish so being at the front part of the race is going to be absolutely crucial.

The last 8 kilometres are almost completely flat, with a little bump to get over as they hit the 1km to go marker. The last kilometre is dead flat though but there are two 90º turns to negotiate before the last straight 450m finishing kick. There is a 60% chance of rain tomorrow, with possible storms though which will make things interesting in the final 20kms.

Route Map

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Profile

Last Kms

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Contenders and Favourites

On paper this is a day for the sprinters, but this stage isn't going to be as clear-cut as that. For one, there have been plenty who have been hiding and just surviving for the last few days possibly with a break in mind for this stage. It is also the last chance of a stage win for the break-away guys with only the TT on Saturday and the final stage to Paris left, so there is bound to be plenty keen to get in the break of the day.

It will surely be a frantic start to the stage and it may take a while for the break to go but it could contain 6-10 riders possibly. Who will be in the break is going to be hard to pick, but you have to look to the stronger men who can cope with a long stage like this one (208kms) and someone who can kick on and maybe solo to victory on that final climb on the Côte de Montbazilac.

If a few riders get away over the top then we have to think about who can win the sprint finish! And of course, there's also the chance that the break isn't the best composition and they get reeled in by the sprinters teams. Whether this happens before or after the Montbazilac climb will again shape some more possibilities as we could see late attacks come on the final climb or else it'll end in a bunch sprint, albeit maybe a slightly reduced sprint because of the 7.6% gradients the sprinters might struggle with.

I'll start with a few for the break as I think it has a fair chance of succeeding. Adam Hansen is a name that's been mentioned a lot on previews for stages like this but if you've been backing him during this Tour you'd have been disappointed as he hasn't managed to get in any of the key breaks yet. I think he'll be disappointed with that too and should be keen to try to make amends tomorrow on a stage that should suit. Its his last chance after all. He's the perfect big diesel engine to have in a break hoping of succeeding and could escape the rest on that run-in. At 200/1 with Coral he is worth a small bet each-way.

Another who fits that mould and might be desperate to get involved in what may be his last Tour breakaway ever is Jens Voigt. I have small reservations about picking him though as he would probably be left behind on that final climb if there are faster climber types with him. Also I think we could see a special moment for Jens on Sunday as he could lead the peloton on to the Champs Élysée for a few special, emotional laps of honour on his final Tour.

Others who might go on the attack early are Jan Bakelants or Niki Terpstra at 100/1, Keukeleire at 150/1 and Simon Clarke or Geraint Thomas at 200/1 each of them. But there are another 50 guys who could be in the break and we can't back them all! One who has said he fancies this stage though and has been riding very well all Tour is Greg Van Avermaet - he is a possible candidate for the long break but also a late attack on those hills before the finish. At 25/1 with Corals he might be one to have onside too.

The chances are though that the sprinters teams are not going to want to let this one go with only one last chance available on Sunday on the Champs. Katusha, Cannondale and Lotto-Belisol are sure to work hard in the second half of the stage and pull back the break as they roll through the final hills.

Favourite for the stage is Alexander Kristoff at 9/2 best price and you can see why - I think Kittel and Greipel will struggle on the climb and may be left behind. If Greipel is left behind on the climb it will take a big effort from him and the team to get him back on and for that reason I am ruling him out. Kittel I think will struggle too and may well let it to his team-mate and save himself for Sunday. Kristoff on the other hand should be able to cope with this kind of climb as we have seen plenty of times in the past such as in Milan-San-Remo. Katusha are sure to push it really hard on the climb with Paolini, Trofimov, Rodriguez and Isaychev to look after him and they should get some help in the drive to the finish from other teams keen to not let the sprinters back in to it. With two stages under his belt already he has proved already the shape he is in and the forecast rain may tilt things even more in his favour.

Peter Sagan - what an incredible Tour he has had when you look at his results - the Green Jersey in the bag and no fewer than 9 top 5 places so far, but a big disappointment is no stage wins for him. He knows this is his last chance as he will not beat the fast men on Sunday. The climb and the tricky run in are perfect for him and Cannondale are going to have to work hard with Katusha to shake off the sprinters. He should be top 5 again you'd have to think, but at the same price as Kristoff I'd rather be on Kristoff..

John Degenkolb though is another who could take advantage of the situation as he will be able to cope with the final hills and can possibly sit in and let Cannondale and Katusha do the work for their men. I don't think Kittel will be involved and Giant-Shimano may be able to hide right up until the last 3-4kms where they should have enough of their men to suddenly turn up the pace and lead Degengolb in to the sprint. He has been unlucky with two stages that he could have won, with Gallopin escaping the net and Trentin almost putting him in the barriers, but I think with a clean sprint tomorrow he has a great chance of making up for it. At 12/1 on betfair he is worth a bet and the 9/1 with various is worth an each-way bet.

Others who could get involved at the end of this one? Michael Albasini is sure to be up there with the Orica-Greenedge boys pushing to get him in the right position, he may even try a flyer on the way up the climb, he likes to try that sometimes too. Daniele Bennati was unlucky last weekend when he started to attack on the run in on Saturday only to puncture almost immediately to his disgust. He could well try something again and would be top 10 material at the worst in the sprint. Matteo Trentin too has proven his worth over finishes like this, and as long as he sprints straight he could be top 10 too. I think Arnaud Démare could be a dark horse too as long as he has got over his illness - if you are a fan and believe he has recovered then he is a big price at 25/1. He looked to be ok in an FDJ team video I saw last night, happy and smiling, so could be close.

I think though that this could be a real mess coming in to the last 15kms - there could be attacks all over the place but Cannondale, Katusha and OGE could push it on the way up with Giant-Shimano taking it up near the finish to deliver Degenkolb. Sagan and Kristoff to fill the top 3 places too!

Recommendations:

1pt win on John Degenkolb at 12.5 on Betfair

1pt each-way on Degenkolb at 9/1 with Bet365

2pts on Kristoff for Top 3 at evens on Betfair

0.25pts each-way on Adam Hansen at 150/1 with Coral

0.25pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 25/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way at 25/1 on Greg Van Avermaet with Corals

Match Bets

Kristoff to beat Sagan - 1pt at 8/13 with Bet365

S Dumoulin to beat Eisel - 2pts at 1/2

Put the two of these in an accumulator with Degenkolb to beat Trentin (8/15) and Van Avermaet to beat Lemoine (4/11) with Bet365, it pays 4/1 - 1.5pts win.