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Published on Wednesday, 23 July 2014 22:30

TDF Stage 18

Pau to Hautacam

Thursday July 24th, 145.5kms 

Pau and Hautacam. Two names synonymous with the Tour de France.  Pau being a frequently visited town when the race is in this corner of France, and Hautacam as one of the iconic climbs of the Tour's history. Throw in the Tourmalet along the way and you have the makings of an epic stage.

One of my earliest memories of Pau as a place and a part of the Tour was back in 1989 when I was just getting in to cycling.. Martin Earley, the lesser known Irish pro at the time took the biggest victory of his career with a fantastic victory in to Pau. Earley was a good rider in his own right but was always going to be overshadowed by the two world stars of cycling at the time, Sean Kelly and Stephen Roche, so that victory was a huge result for him.  

It was a chaotic start to stage 17 as expected on such a short and hard day, with breaks and individual riders all over the road with just 30km or so gone. Majka and Rodriguez were in the break but interestingly Majka didn't contest the first climb, instead sending Roche up to challenge with Purito. Mollema and Van den Broeck decided to light it up early getting in to the large 22-man group of the day, but it was Kiryienka, who had worked so hard the day before, who struck off solo with about 55km to go ahead of the Peyresourde. 

But Saxo had a master plan today and Nicholas Roche was simply sensational - I don't think I've ever seen him ride as well as he did today - chasing everything, pushing hard at the front, attacking, pulling for Majka. He was just brilliant. Majka stole the stage and landed our bets though with a cheeky performance that included lots of winking and even pulling at a motorbike for some bizarre reason. It was a good result for me today, made better by an in-play lay of Rolland and Rodriguez to add 3 more points to my pot.

I was desperately unlucky with the matchbet and the treble, one place seperated Rolland from Schleck (ok, albeit 20" was between them) but it could have been another bumper pay day. It continues the winning streak though, I think that's 5 positive days in a row now. Looks like the lay of Rodriguez for KOM is safe now too, I could hedge back at 32 on Betfair, but I think I'll just lay some at 1.13 of Majka instead in case Nibali steals it from him. Laying 3pts to give up .39pts of my profit on him. 

There were two non-starters with Gerrans and Hollenstein pulling out with injuries, and Simon Spilak abandoned very early in the stage to bring the total number of riders now at 166 with 4 stages left. Just need one more abandon and that bet lands!

The Route

Again, this is a pretty short stage at just 145.5kms but the organisers have packed in two monster climbs in the last 70kms. Heading mostly south-east they encounter two uncategorised climbs inside the first 10kms and then a Cat 3 climb after just 20kms. But these are nothing to worry about and we may see the bunch staying mostly together until they reach the intermediate sprint at 61kms. 

From there though it's going to be every man for himself as they start up the Col de Tourmalet. It may be officially given as 17kms long but the reality is that they will be climbing for closer to 35kms from the intermediate sprint at Trésbon. The Tourmalet has been used something like 79 times in the Tour de France so it doesn't hold much secrets or surprises - its a steady climb that gets progressively harder the further up it goes. The first 5kms average only about 4.5%, but the next 12kms are a very steady gradient, around 9% with no major variations between 8-10%.

Once over the top there's a 35km monster descent down to Ayros Arbouix and the start of the final climb of the day to the summit finish at the Hautacam. Officially it's given at 13.6kms at 7.8%, this is a much more uneven climb though with the gradient constantly changing - 6,8,10,8,6,10% sections all the way up. The last 5kms are an almost perfect 9% steady gradient and it is sure to string things out dramatically again like today on the Pla d'Adet.

Contenders and Favourites

Honestly, if this finishes in a GC men battle, then there looks like there's only going to be one winner - Vincenzo Nibali. The breaks will go and we'll have some of the usual suspects again, but I think tomorrow is a day where they will not get so much time and will be chased down on the Hautacam. Once that happens, Nibali will allow some of the younger guys scrap amongst themselves for a while, tiring themselves out, and then will just kick away from them all at the 3 or 4km to go mark again.

He is pretty short for the stage as it looks like the bookies are giving him a high chance of catching the break and leaving the rest behind. There is some 9/4 on Betfair though and that is worth taking. The proud Sicilian hasn't liked it when people have suggested that his win is devalued by the loss of Froome and Contador and I am pretty sure he will want to win his third stage on the iconic climb of the Hautacam to stamp his dominance on the race.

One thing that could happen though is that JC Peraud can stay with him when he makes his attack near the finish - so far, Peraud has been brilliant in covering Nibali and seems the only one capable of marking him when he attacks. There could be a situation where they get away together, work together and Nibali possibly lets him win the stage - it is possible! From that point of view, a saver bet might be worth it at 11/1 with Paddy Power.

Majka was super today but might pay the price for that tomorrow. Valverde came back strong at the end today to surprise Pinot, Bardet and Van Garderen to jump past and steal some precious seconds off them when it looked 15 minutes before that like Valverde was going to lose a lot of time. I think though that if the accelerations come again from Pinot, Nibali or Peraud then he will be dropped and will not be able to claw his way back to them in the closing kilometres.

Rodriguez and Rolland aren't capable of getting away and taking it all the way to the line. Nieve rode better today but was again tapped for pace when Nibali and co. kicked off and it took him a long time to get back on. Konig lost time today due to cramps, Van Garderen, Mollema and Van Den Broeck look one-paced at the moment and incapabale of an explosive attack that will get them away from Nibali and Peraud.

So I can really only see two guys I am comfortable putting my money on, and I expect to see them pull clear in the last few kilometres with Nibali dancing away and Peraud hanging on for dear life. If Peraud works with him well he may let him take the stage victory.. Van den Broeck to beat Konig looks a good bet at 6/4, VDB seems to be getting better, whereas Konig lost about a minute today to suggest he might be tiring (was hit by cramps it seems which doesn't bode well for another tough stage like this today), although VDB's advantage came from being in the break. At 6/4 though it looks interesting enough.  

Recommendations:

4pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 9/4 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on JC Peraud at 11/1 with Paddy Power 

Match Bets 

Nieve to beat Horner - 2pts at 8/13 with Paddy Power

Ten Dam to beat Zubeldia - 1pt at 1/2 with Paddy Power

Van den Broeck to beat Konig - 1pt at 6/4 with PP 

JC Peraud to beat Pinot - 1pt at 5/6

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