Details

Published on Tuesday, 22 July 2014 00:30

TDF Stage 17

Saint-Gaudens to Saint-Lary Pla d'Adet

Wednesday July 23rd, 124.5kms 

So after the longest stage of the race we get the shortest stage of the race at just 124kms. On a normal day, this would take them less than 3 hours, but this isn't a normal day! The short distance of the course means that the time limit is going to be very tight and we could find a bunch of the non-climbers battling just to stay in the race. 

A very good day for us today with Rogers winning at 12/1 from the break of the day with a brilliantly timed late attack on the descent to Bagnères de Luchon. He was obviously very keen to get away as he was in the first break of the day that only ever got about 20 seconds and was hauled back, but went again with the break that stuck. Was spot on with Jeremy Roy and Voeckler too on them getting in the break but not being able to finish it off.. Add in two out of two with the match bets at 8/11 and evens and an in-play bet on Kwiatkowski to finish in 4th-9th place at 11/8 and it was a nicely profitable day. 

What wasn't so good was the GC hopes of Van Garderen who shipped 3'35" and also Bardet's white jersey's hopes as he lost time to Pinot who actually performed better than anyone expected on the descent!

The Route

This is a proper Pyreneen mountain day. Short, sharp and a bundle of climbs packed in to the last 80kms. Like stage 16 it starts out sedately enough again, with the road rising gradually for the first 48kms or so, past the intermediate sprint at Saint-Béat after just 31kms. We may see a break go early with Sagan involved, and if he isn't we may see Cannondale chase everything down until the 31km mark has gone. 

At the 48km point though things change. For the next 75kms or so they are either climbing or descending with only a handful of flat kilometres on the whole stage. First up is the Col du Portillon, a nasty Cat 1 just to kick things off. 8.3kms at 7.1% should be enough to see half the bunch form the autobus pretty early. The climb actually briefly takes them in to Spain to the LLeida region but by the time they start descending they are back in France again, in the Haute-Garonne. 

After 78.8kms they start up the next Cat 1 climb, the Col de Peyresourde, a well used and very famous climb in the Tour de France - this is in afact the 44th time that they have gone over the Peyresourde since it was first used in 1910. 13.2kms long at 7%, it should be the scene of the next big shakeout. If you are not on a good day, this could be where you will be found out. The first 3kms are not too tough with 6%, 3% and 6% the opening gradients. From there it is pretty consistent at around 8% average but with just one dip to 4% at the 5km mark.

It get progressively steeper for the last 3kms of the climb though, going 7%, 8% and 8.5%, but it's probably just a little early yet for a big move to come from any of the favourites. In 2012 when they crested it on the way to Bagnères-de-Luchon it was Thomas Voeckler who led over. The next day they went over it again on stage 17 and it was Alejandro Valverde who led over. Last year in stage 9 Thomas de Gendt led over it on the stage won by Daniel Martin.

Then it's 10kms downhill and straight back up again for the Col de Val Louron-Azet, the shortest climb of the 4 at 'just' 7.4kms! the 8.3% gradient though is a tough one with the kilometre 2-4 averaging closer to 9.5%. The last 500m kicks up hard again at close to 10%. 

Then back down again for another 10kms to Saint-Lary-Soulan to begin the final climb of the day at the 114.3km mark. The climb to Montée de Saint-Lary Pla d'Adet probably comes close to winning the longest mountain name in the Tour, but it is also quite a hard climb too! 10.2kms at 8.3% average again, this one has been given a Haute Category rating. 

The bottom of this climb is the hardest part, starting at 8,9%, then 10.3% for 2kms and then 9,8% and 8.8%, a real nasty start which hits a maximum of 12.1%.. But even the 'easy' parts are hard, easing back to just 9% average or so. The only bit of relief they get is at the 7km mark where it eases to just 5.1% for a kilometre. The last 200m or so eases off to almost a flat gradient, but the likelihood is that it will be a solo rider who crosses the line first at the top of the Pla d'Adet. In recent years it was two American drugs cheats who won up here - Armstrong in 2001 but had the stage taken off him, and Hincapie who should have had his taken off him too but still goes down in the record books as the winner of the stage. In both years Armstrong won the Tour but both of those wins have been stripped from him.  

Contenders and Favourites

A short preview for now as I have an engagement I cannot get out of tomorrow night. I hope to be able to update this more tomorrow and possibly tomorrow night but it could be late. Apologies for that.. burning the midnight oil tonight to try to get it done ahead of it!

This is going to be a brutally fast stage and brutally hard for anyone who does not enjoy their climbing.. It's probably going to be fast and furious from the get go as riders try to get in the break of the day, but it is entirely possible that the break doesn't get away until after the intermediate sprint at the 31km mark.

I think though that a break, unless it contains some seriously strong GC men, will not make it today. The pace is going to be furious as those looking to make time ahead of the TT will need to push really hard on the Peyresourde and the Val Louron-Azet ahead of the final push. We could possibly get a stage like in the Dauphiné where Talansky and Van den Broeck took it to the favourites from a long way out. Bardet needs to attack now that he lost so much time today as his dreams of winning the white jersey and taking a podium spot are seriously in doubt now given how poor his time trial skills are. Valverde, fearing for his podium spot may feel he needs to go on the attack.. 

Nibali can play it calm and just mark the moves - he has nothing to prove now and just needs to get to Paris safely to land the Tour. Of course, if he spots a weakness, an opportunity to pounce, then of course he will - he has been ruthless and he has been brilliant in those situations. Van Garderen cannot afford another bad day, he lost three and a half minutes today to put him four minutes off the podium spot that looked so reachable before today's stage. Even his 4th spot is looking precarious with Konig just 7" behind him.

I think this could be a stage we see Rafal Majka on the attack again. This time though I think he might not go in the early break, but instead wait for the penultimate climb to try to get away from the GC battle and get a head start on the final climb. It may even be that Rogers or Roche are up the road ready to give him a tow for a while.. He is after the KOM jersey but that may be a side prize in his pursuit for a stage win. His confidence levels are soaring and he has said on a number of occasions when asked about how great it was to win a stage in the Tour that 'the Tour isn't over yet, I'm not finished yet!". He is in a good position in that he is one of the best climbers on the race clearly, the way he held the gap to a flying Nibali on Sunday. And no better way to pull ahead in the KOM prize too than by landing the max points on the HC climb summit finish.

Also, he will be given a freedom as all of Nibali's pursuers will be more preoccupied with not losing time to each other. Tonight though on looking at the prices he is far, far shorter than I expected, was hoping for 7 or 8/1, he is half of that at 9/2 best price with Boyles but that's a half point better than what he is on Betfair, so I have had 4 points on at 9/2 and laying 2 points back at 4/1 to add another 1pt profit for free should he win. 

Rodriguez could be in the same boat wanting to go for mountain points, but if he has not got in the early break and the pace is really high I can't see him being able to stay with Majka if Majka does take off. If Rodriguez does try to go in the break of the day then Majka may well mark the move. 

Of course Nibali is also going to be a strong favourite for this stage but will he go after Majka? Will he ride defensively finally, or continue to stamp his authority all over this race? Or will we finally see a 'Jour Sans' from the Shark? People say he always has a bad day, but the days are running out and he hasn't had one yet! I can't see him having a bad day unless he has an accident though, and even if he has a bit of a blip his cushion is pretty solid now. I think I'll wait and see how Stage 16 pans out and what price Nibbles is before making any decisions on him. 

As the race dips in to Spain along the way we are sure to see some of the Spanish riders come to life a bit. The problem is there are very few Spaniards that are capable of coming to life this year! Valverde is right up there in the podium spot at the moment, but he has shown signs of weakness. And there is no way he is going to go from that far out as they cross in to Spain just to put on a show with 80km to go! Mikel Nieve may well go early like he did on Saturday, but he faded badly when a lot was expected of him. You have to go down to 12th place to find another Spaniard, the anonymous Zubeldia. He never seems to do anything, ever, just is always there, hovering at the back of the peloton. I don't think he has it in him to suddenly break away and try to do something on his own. 

After that it is pretty slim pickings for the Spanish, with Maté in 33rd place and Rojas in 39th the next two on the GC, and neither of them will be involved. This stage is too hard for Thomas Voeckler and Pierre Rolland. Rolland will probably try another waste of energy attack and get tailed off with 5km to go.. 

Thibaut Pinot has been explosive at times but had not been able to stay with Nibali (or even JC Peraud) when he has gone for it on the mountain stages so far, that is up until today's 16th stage when he was super impressive with a powerful attack that blew Bardet out the back door. He will be locked in his own private battle for a podium place so may not be able to attack and get away from the AG2R guys. 

I'm not sure the break will make it tomorrow, it's a hard day and the break may not go for a long time so it might be hard to build up the sort of lead they got today. Others that could go well tomorrow? Well Nibali of course has looked the strongest climber in the race and although it may have looked like he was in trouble at the top of the climb today when Pinot got 20m or so on him, I think it was nothing, he just composed himself ahead of a descent he knew he could catch Pinot on. With just over 4kms to go to the finish it kicks up to 9.4% average and that could be where he could make a move. At 3/1 though he is very short, given how there will be lots of attacks and he doesn't need to attack really.

Others? Nico Roche could be in the early break of the day and 80/1 with Bet365 might be worth a go but he has been looking tired lately. Valverde was being stretched today again at the top of the Port de Bales so if the pressure comes on at the top again tomorrow it's unlikely he'll be close enough to be able to contest the finish. Thibaut Pinot looked very impressive today and very confident and we could well see him finally take a stage victory if he can just get away from Nibali! He's quite short again though, but the 5/1 with Skybet who are paying 4 places just about offers some each-way value, if it's a GC battle he is bound to be in the top 4 you'd think.

What a ride by Konig today though to catch the Nibali group inside the last kilometre after being distanced by them on the climb/descent. He must still have a lot of strength in his legs and he too could fancy it tomorrow on a shorter stage than today's. 25/1 for 3 places or 22/1 for 4 places is worth an each-way bet, we could get a slightly surprising podium tomorrow. 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Majka at 9/2 with Boylesports, layed 2pts back on Betfair at 4/1

0.5pts each-way on Leopald Konig at 22/1 with Boyles (4 places)

1pt each-way on Thibaut Pinot at 5/1 with Skybet (4 places)

couldn't resist it - 0.4pts each-way on Roche at 80/1 with Bet365 

Match Bets 

Frank Schleck to beat Pierre Rolland - 2pts at 10/11 with Ladbrokes

Majka to beat Rodriguez (1/3), Schleck to beat Rolland (4/5) and Van Garderen to beat Van den Broeck (8/13) - 2pts on the treble at 2.87/1 with Bet365 

Get the best tyres money can buy with a CyclingBetting special offer!

Continental GP4000s clinchers for under £27 with free delivery!