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Published on Wednesday, 16 July 2014 00:04

Tour de France St. 12

Bourg-en-Bresse to Saint-Étienne

Thursday July 17th, 185.5kms 

Another transition stage on the way to the Alps which looks quite similar to the previous days rolling profile as they head to Saint-Étienne and the eastern fringes of the Massif Centrale. It looks like a perfect day for a breakaway with the HC mountain coming up the next day. 

Tony Gallopin pulled off a sensational stage victory today, showing that he recovered extremely well from his exertions of stage 10.. It was a day of what might have been for the bets with Nico Roche doing his absolute best to land the stage victory with an attacking ride that just fell short. Peter Sagan seems to be more interested in showing off and riding like an amateur than winning a stage, he blew another superb opportunity to win when in the group that Gallopin escaped to victory from.

Van Avermaet was close to a placing in 7th, but what a performance from John Degenkolb who 'won' the bunch sprint behind Galloping Gallopin! Rui Costa suffered today from Bronchitis and dropped 5 places out of the top 10 to 14th. But he didn't suffer as much as Andrew Talansky who battled back pain and the voices in his head (and from the team car) all the way to the line, just making it inside the time limit.

The Route

After leaving Bourg-en-Bresse they head west and unusually the intermediate sprint comes up very early on, after just 39.5kms. This means we might see Cannondale keep it together until then for Sagan but the break could well go as soon as that has been passed. From there they head south of south west towards Saint-Étienne on a lumpy parcours that has 4 categorised climbs but a bunch of uncategorised climbs along the way too.

First up is the Col de Brouilly, a Cat 4 climb of just 1.7kms at 5.1%, a nice easy one to get them started, but it's actually the third in a series of similar little collines. After rolling along through some more little hills they start the Cat 3 Côte du Saule-d'Oingt near Villefranche sur Saone - this is a little longer at 3.8kms but still is just 4.5% average. After dipping down in to the Saone valley and skirting past the outskirts of Lyon they start climbing again, first on to the plateau around Vaugneray and then at the 122km mark they start up the Col des Brosses, a Cat 3 climb. 

This is the longest climb of the day at 15.3kms but it is a very gentle 3.3% - big ring the whole way up this one! After descending for about 12kms they reach the foot of the final climb of the day, the Côte de Grammond, another Cat 3 climb which barely is a hill at all at just 2.9% average, but it does go on for 9.8kms. 

From the summit, there is a 13km descent which should take them about 10 minutes and then it's a flat run in to the finish of 8.5kms. There is a little kick up with 1km to go for about 500m which you can see below in the picture from Google Streetview - this might cause some a few problems, but the last 500m are almost flat, rising just a little but looks perfect for a fast sprint among the strong sprinters.

Contenders and Favourites

Simon Gerrans apparently fancied his chances for Stage 11 as well as Stage 12, and was quite prominent towards the front at the business end of today's stage. When it came to the sprint he started at the 200m mark in 9th place in the group but finished very quickly, finishing in 4th place in the group, 5th overall. Tomorrow's finish is a bit more his cup of tea, with the uphill drag 500m out a lot more to his liking than the flat sprint today. I think he is worth another shot tomorrow - he is 22/1 with Paddy Power, but if you'd like the extra security of five place, Boyles are still running this excellent market, he is 16/1 with them.. This would have paid out again today if you'd backed Gerrans or Bennati. 

John Degenkolb though showed he is the best of the 'bigger' sprinters today comfortably (not that he looked comfortable!) taking the bunch sprint. I think he has a real good shot at winning this tomorrow, his power strength will be too hot for Sagan I feel. Giant-Shimano still have their full complement of riders and Tom Dumoulin, Koen de Kort and Roy Curvers are sure to put in a big shift for Deggers up that ramp with 500m to go to deliver him with a great chance of winning the stage. He's my main win bet for tomorrow. He is 5/1 generally but I've backed him at 7.2/1 on Betfair which I think is a good price. 

Sagan looks frustrated and annoyed with the way he is now treated in every race.. no-one wants to ride with him and no-one wants to work when he is in the same move. He may well get frustrated again tomorrow and place 4th or 5th.. 

Another crew who are sure to put in a big effort in the last few kilometres are OPQS - Matteo Trentin is clearly in form (another top 3 placing again today) and with the likes of Martin, Golas, Bakelants and Renshaw to lead him out I think he could well be near the placings again tomorrow. He's much shorter now of course, around the 14/1 mark and I'm not sure there is a great deal of value in that any more.

André Greipel finally got off the mark on stage 6 but we haven't seen him since. On stage 7, which had a lumpy little profile towards the end, he finished over 8 minutes down in 134th place. Today on stage 11 he finished over 20 minutes down in 152nd place, not far in front of Talansky! As tomorrow has a similar, if slightly easier profile to today, I can't be backing him at odds around 8/1.

Alexander Kristoff could be the big danger to Degenkolb though, the big Norwegian finished in that same group as Greipel today, which was a disappointment to those who fancied him for today's stage. This stage is a little bit more like Milan San Remo with two medium difficulty climbs towards the end and a big charge down to the finish. The uphill sprint should be to his liking too. Kittel is pretty short for a stage with two tough climbs near the finish - around 16/1.. I'm not interested as I think he may not be there at the finish. If he is as they charge towards the finish, back him at whatever price you can get!!

Another rider who could surprise at a tasty looking price is JJ Rojas for Movistar. 6th today on stage 11, 6th on the lumpy stage 9 to Mulhouse, 8th on the tough stage 3 to Sheffield and 9th on stage 1 to Harrogate with that pull up to the line, he has been knocking on the door for the first half of this race. He is 40/1 generally but I recommend you have the bet with Boyles who are paying out on 5 places.   

There will be a break of the day go but as we have seen so far in this Tour it has been very hard to stay away from the marauding peloton who don't want to let any breaks win. There will be the usual suspects probably give it a go - Edet, Voeckler, Lemoine, maybe Kadri, Bakelants etc.. but I think it will end up in a frantic charge to the line and Degenkolb will just hold off Gerrans and Trentin from Sagan and Kristoff. 

Recommendations:

Back John Degenkolb - 1.5pts at 7.2/1 on Betfair or 5/1 if you don't have a betfair account

Back Simon Gerrans - 0.5pts each way at 22/1 with Paddy Power

Back JJ Rojas - 0.3pts each-way at 40/1 with Boylesports or 55/1 win only on Betfair

Lay André Geipel around 5/2 on Betfair for a top 3 placing to lose 2.5pts (to win 1pt) 

Match Bets 

Van Garderen to beat Konig - 2pts at 5/6

JJ Rojas to beat S Dumoulin - 1pt at 5/6

S Gerrans to beat Van Avermaet - 2pts at 4/7 

Kristoff to beat Greipel - 1.5pts at evens

All with Bet365

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