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Published on Monday, 14 July 2014 00:30

Tour de France St. 11

Besançon to Oyonnax

Wednesday July 16th, 187.5kms 

Well.. I had started my rest day review on Sunday, taking about how eventful the race had been up until now, and that it was all set up nicely for a duel in the high mountains over the coming weeks. That was well and truly ripped up after Monday's events with another shocking abandonment.

Contador crashing out was even more of a shock than Froome I think. Contador has a reputation for being a good descender, although one that likes to take risks (just ask Froome about that descent off the Col de Manse on stage 16 last year, where he labelled him 'desperate'). It was set up nicely for him, he was "in the shape of his life" according to Riis and they were confident they would overhaul Nibali, as was I.

There's all sorts of speculation and stories flying around of course about what happened, but it seems he crashed on a slippy descent with a bad surface when taking too many risks when trying to move back up the peloton, passing guys when there probably was no need to. Greg Van Avermaet described it as a "stupid crash on a straightforward road. Very stupid". But I guess GVA will never understand the pressures Contador felt right then. Reports that his frame had snapped were denied by T-S and Specialized but then Nico Roche came out in his Irish Independent diary today and said:

"As I helped Alberto up, I noticed his bike was broken and there was a stream of blood coming from a gash just under his right knee. His wound looked pretty bad but as a rider, my natural instinct was to simply hand him my bike and encourage him to keep going.

"Take my bike Alberto! Go, go, go!"

"Nico, I don't know if I can," he said as he hobbled out onto the road.

"Go and see. Try it, just jump on the bike!"

So the story gets even more confused. Looks like it was Specialized trying to save reputation but who knows. The significant thing is Contador is out now and the GC looks like it's a done deal already. Indeed with Nibali now best price around 2/9 the bookies seem to agree that it's as good as done. The problem is that there is no-one like Contador it seems who can take it to Nibali now, and on top of that, he looks to be in the form of his life and riding with supreme confidence. But as we have seen already, anything could happen yet.

Second on the GC now is my man Richie Porte and after trading as short as 7/2 in running yesterday before Nibali accelerated away and gained more time, he is back out to around 8/1. He could still be a big challenger to Nibali though. Sky came here with a strong team supposedly in support of Froome, but they will now be working for Porte.

Porte has shown he has the climbing legs that we were hearing he had. Forget the finish to La Planche, 20% gradients are not his thing, he'll be far better over the longer,  more regular climbs to come. He's got quite a gap to make up though, so he has a real task on his hands to overturn Nibbles. 

Astana don't look anything special though when the pressure is put on, Nibali will find himself isolated quite often I think on the bigger mountain stages. Fuglsang had been magnificent despite suffering from diarrhoea, shepherding his leader as far as he can. Scarponi was super too on Monday,  tapping out a rhythm to Nibali's power meter tapping orders. Nibali has been flawless and stylish so far.  Be it with his cheeky attack on the way to Sheffield or blitzing it on the cobbles,  he has proved the man for all conditions and fully deserves his lead. Can he and his team keep it up for two more weeks? Well,  you don't win a Giro if you can't finish a Grand Tour!

Tejay Van Garderen rode very well on Monday to finish 6th on the stage and pull himself back in to the top 10 from 16th place. He could still have a big say in the outcome of this race. Thibaut Pinot was impressive in skipping away from Porte and co on the final parts of La Planche on Monday and I think there is a lot more to come from him. He will have a big battle with his compatriot Romain Bardet (my bet for the white Jersey) and JC Peraud for the best Frenchman on the Tour. 

Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema and Jurgen Van den Broeck are still hanging in there and are still just around 4 minutes behind Nibali. There is still lots of racing to come and there are going to be some quality battles we hope in the next two weeks.

One rider who could easily be forgotten in the Contador hoo-ha is Thiago Machado who had such a horrible crash before Bertie that it was reported that he had abandoned.. Instead he insisted he was put back on his bike and rode to the finish but missed the time limit by minutes. Le Tour took pity on him though and let him stay in the race. One rider that won't be signing on though on Wednesday is Fabian Cancellara who abandoned the race during the rest day to prepare for the Worlds'. 

So far I've been a little bit like Greg van Avermaet with our bets. Some very close misses for some big results but performing solidly and consistently! Contador's abandonment has hurt a number of bets but on the same token Cav's and Froome's crashes have landed some nice bets as well. GVA at 50/1 e/w on stage 2 was unlucky, if Nibali hadn't slipped the net he may well would have won. Tom Dumoulin I tipped to win stage 7 at 100/1, he got fourth which paid out if you had backed him each way with Skybet or Boylesports. Richie Porte at 33/1 paid out each-way too on stage 8 so I've had a few close ones, hopefully we'll land a big one soon. 

The Route

So now that rest day is nearly over and we have had a chance to reflect on what else has gone on so far. Some have impressed, some have disappointed, some have already left the race, battered and bruised. It's been wildly exciting at times though and set up beautifully for the next two weeks action. They are welcomed back with a challenging, lumpy stage that skirts along the west of the Jura mountains, which looks like one for the puncheurs and breakaway men. It rises gently from the start all the way to the final mountain top of the day at the Côte de Échallon before a fast descent for 15kms to the finish in Oyonnax. 

It looks like a day for a breakaway but if the peloton can keep them within arms length (probably due to Katusha and Cannondale pushing it) there could be late action over the final 50kms or so which could see a reduced group fight out the finish. Although the stage is quite lumpy and rolling, the first categorised climb doesn't come until the 131km mark when they start on the 3rd Cat climb of the Côte de Rogna, a 7.6km drag at 4.9% average. They don't really descend off of it at all, instead go along the plateau at the top for about 5kms before starting on the next climb of the day, the Côte de Choux, a short little one that takes them half way up the Côte de Desertin. All in all, these climbs total nearly 5kms at about 5.8% average, so nothing too difficult again. 

They then descend for the best part of 15kms through Miribel before starting on the final double header climb, the first part of which is the Côte de Échallon, 3kms at 6.6%, then a little descent past Lac Genin and up an uncategorised climb which they crest with just over 10kms to the finish. And it will be a crazy charge down this descent to Oyonnax, with only the last kilometre or so being flat for the sprint finish.   

Contenders and Favourites

First thoughts are that this is a stage for the likes of Sagan, Kristoff and the like - it's not too hard for these guys to be dropped but hard enough for the likes of Kittel and the pure sprinters not to be involved at the finish.

There could be a real battle to get in the break of the day, it could take a while for it to get established, possibly not until around the 50km mark when they start climbing the first hill of the day at Arbois. After the rest day some will be eager to get out and get involved early and some will be under team orders to go out and do something, especially the teams with little reward so far. There's another little lump up to Les Crozets at the 114km mark where we could see some moves come from behind to set up an early advantage ahead of the 4 categorised categorised climbs that come in 36kms. 

The stage looks perfect for Peter Sagan to finally get off the mark with a stage win - he is a likely candidate for the early breakaway like on stage 10, so if he gets in the break it is one less team that needs to chase also. If he doesn't get in the break then Cannondale are likely to chase with the likes of OGE and Katusha and will probably reel in the break possibly with about 30kms to go, in order to set him up for a late attack. The double peak of the Cote d'Échallon and the uncategorised climb a few kilometres later are a perfect launch pad for late attacks. Once over the second peak there is less than 15kms to go, of which 14kms is downhill. Sagan showed on Stage 7 that this sort of finish is right up his street too, attacking with GVA, but just caught with a few kms to go, but still managing to get 2nd in the sprint. 

He seems to be getting pretty frustrated that he hasn't won a stage yet, I'm sure he thought he'd have possibly two by now, so he will be very fired up to take these chances, as there aren't many left. He's 11/4 best price with Corals, but is 3/1 with Betfair and that's my first bet tomorrow. 

One I like at a big price is Nico Roche - now that the boss has gone home he will have a free hand to go stage hunting and I think he might fancy a late attack on this stage, a bit like he did on stage 2 on the Route Du Sud. The difference there of course was that it finished on a summit, this comes after a 15kms descent, so he will probably need a companion or two to hold off the chasers. At 40/1 with William Hill though I think he is worth a small bet. 

Simon Gerrans is 2nd favourite for the stage though at 11/1 generally and I think he will have a good chance tomorrow too. He had targeted stages 1 and 2 and we saw that he was denied those opportunities. In Stage 7 he just didn't have the legs and got tangled up with Talansky in the sprint and I think he will be desperate to make amends. I'm not sure the descent in to the finish will suit him as much as a finish with an uphill kick though and could find a few just too quick for him. 

Alexander Kristoff could well be a big danger for this stage though, he may well get over those climbs with the leaders and will surely fancy a fast open sprint to the finish like this one. He is a big price I think at 28/1 but the risk is that he gets dropped on the 2nd last climb if the pace really lifts at the front. 

Another who could get involved in the early break or the late attacks/sprint finish is Michael Albasini. It all depends on whether he is sent to work for Gerro over the last few climbs like on Stage 7, and with that doubt in my mind I think I'll wait and watch in play to see how it's looking.

Greg Van Avermaet will have a big chance tomorrow too, those last two climbs are perfect for him, not too long or not too steep, just like something in the Ardennes. I can see him trying an attack on either the first or the second climb, depending on who is up the road or not and will give it his all all the way to the finish. He is generally around 20/1 but is available at 33/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook and that's worth an each-way bet. 

Others that could go well include Tom Dumoulin who could get involved if it comes to a sprint finish like on Stage 7 but may well find a few too quick for him. Sylvain Chavanel could well fancy this finish too but he seems to be not 100%, he hasn't had his power of old it seems so far, was no match for Kadri when he kicked.

Jan Bakelants and Matteo Trentin could well be up there too, but Bakelants has disappointed so far and I'm not sure I want to risk anything on him. Trentin took a great stage win on stage 7 pipping Sagan, and he could be a big danger again. I can't see Sagan letting him surprise him this time though, and around 16/1 is a bit short for me I think.  Nicholas Edet is a likely candidate for the early breakaway at 150/1 and Joaquim Rodriguez is also likely to kick ahead for KOM points on some of the later climbs, if he gets a few to go with him he might try to make it all the way to the finish. 

Tom Jelte Slagter is another who could be interesting from now on.. with Talansky all but out of it now he may be given the opportunity to go for some stage wins and tomorrow could be one that suits him. He is overpriced now because of his performances to date, but he was minding Talansky. He might be worth a small bet at 50/1.

Recommendations:

Peter Sagan - 2pts win at 3/1 on Betfair

Nico Roche - 0.5pts each-way at 40/1 with William Hill 

Greg Van Avermaet - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1 with Betfair Sportsbook

Nicholas Edet - 0.1pt each-way at 150/1 with Paddy Power

TJ Slagter - 0.2pts each-way at 50/1 with Paddy Power

Match Bets 

Valverde to beat Nibali - 1.6pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Gerrans to beat S Dumoulin - 2pts at 8/13 with Bet365

Van Avermaet to beat T Dumoulin - 1pt at 8/13 with Bet365

Roche to beat Rogers - 1.2pts at 5/6 with Bet365 

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