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Published on Saturday, 12 July 2014 23:30

Tour de France St. 9

Gérardmer to Mulhouse

Sunday July 13th, 170kms 

Blel Kadri won a fantastic victory for AG2R after shedding his breakaway companions along the way to La Mauselaine. Behind though the action was dramatic. Tinkoff-Saxo drove hard at the front inside the last 10kms and when Nico Roche hit the front he blew things to pieces and set it up for Contador to press on to the finish. 

And when it came to Contador to do his part he didn't let the team down, accelerating until there was only Nibali with him, and at the very end he put in a little pyschological kick to distance Nibali a little. Richie Porte did magnificent to finish 4th in the stage to move up to 3rd place in the podium, displaying the climbing legs I have been saying he has. In the process he landed the each-way money at 33/1 with Boylesports as their excellent offer of five places paid us for his 4th place. I hope some of you backed Contador each-way too based on my preview as you'd have got paid out for his 2nd place. 

It was a good day on the matchbets front, with the Gadret match bet and the treble at 5/2 more than covering the loss on Horner Vs Ten Dam. In-play I also tweeted a lay of Simon Yates at 15/8 (2.84) - I got 2pts away (to lose 3.6pts). I thought it was a ridiculous price for him up against two old hands in Kadri and Chavanel, with Kadri being a pretty decent climber.

Overall, the picture has changed in the betting as a result - Alberto Contador is now the 11/10 favourite from 6/4 this morning, with Nibali drifting slightly from 11/8 to 13/8 as a result. Porte has stayed solid around the 10/1 mark with Valverde now out to 25/1 after disappointing today. In fact it was because Valverde left the wheel go that Porte lost the 10m or so that he was behind the front two. He held it all the way to the line but looked comfortable despite claiming afterwards that the climb didn't really suit him. He also claimed he will be much better on a more regular, longer climb.

Fuglsang cracked early but can be forgiven as apparently he was suffering from stomach problems today (I backed JVDB in a match bet against him in play, but didn't know this at the time, if I had I'd have unloaded the wheelbarrow of cash on him!). In the end, JVDB cracked a little too and instead of potentially moving in to the top 3 also he ended up losing time and instead slipped from 5th to 10th place. Kwiatkowski cracked in the mountains even earlier in the Tour than I expected, losing a minute and a half to the leaders. Van Garderen, Pinot and Mollema rode well too to finish as well as they did, Mollema looked in trouble at one point lower down the final climb but recovered well and passed lots of riders in the run in. Thibaut Pinot looked good too coming in just behind Porte and may well have a good day on La Planche on Monday as it's a climb he knows well. I had a nibble at 200/1 each-way on him for the GC too.

Contador has shown that even over a short climb he can distance Nibali though and it could be that on longer, harder climbs like the Planche des Belles Filles he may well take 20-30" on him if he attacks earlier. Richie Porte looks very good, and as Greg Lemond put it today "he's the talk of the peloton, He is certainly going to be a contender".. let's hope so Greg, let's hope so. 

The Route

The first 'proper' day in the mountains. Ok, we had some tough climbs towards the end of stage 8, but they wre just in the last 30kms.. This is a stage with no fewer than 6 Categorised climbs and a few more uncategorised climbs on a day which sees them climbing more or less from kilometre zero. It's a multi-directional course which sees them head in every conceivable direction, so any wind out there will be for an against them all day.

They start by heading east out of Gerardmer and for the first 11.5kms they head up in to the Vosges mountains to the Cat 2 Col de la Schlucht, an 8.6km apperitif which averages a gentle 4.5%. They then descend for about 15kms into the Haut-Rhin where they spend the rest of the stage. Continuing west they hit the Cat 3 Col du Wettstein, 7.7kms at 4.1%. Then another 20kms or descending and they start to head south now towards the third climb of the day, the Cote des Cinq Chateaux, a short little Cat 3 of 4.5% at 6.1% which they crest after 70kms.

At the 81kms mark they start on the Cote de Gueberschwihr, a short sharp climb of 4.1kms at 7.9%. The big climb of the day though starts at the 105kms mark and it's a stepped climb that goes up in three steps. The first step comes around the 115km mark which is uncategorised, then 5km later they reach the top of the official summit of the climb, at Le Markstein.

This part of the Cat 1 climb is registered as being 10.8kms at an average of 5.4%, but after a plateau of 5kms or so after the summit they start climbing the Grand Ballon which overshadows Le Markstein. The Grand Ballon is a Cat3 of 1.4kms at a stinging 8.6%. From there, it's a fast, tricky 6km descent before a little bump up the uncategorised Col Amic. Then 12kms more of a descent and they are on the flat run in to home at Mulhouse, with around 22kms of flat to downhill to go to the finish.  

Contenders and Favourites

Make no mistake about it, this is a very hard stage to call. My first insticts are that a break could make it - be it an early break that is out there all day or a late break on the climb up to Le Markstein a bit like Dan Martin's victory last year where he and Fuglsang attacked out of the GC group and held on all the way to the finish in Bagnères-de-Bigorre.

The fact that they are on a Cat 2 climb from as soon as the Flag car gets out of their way means that it will be hard right from the off. Some will find themselves in trouble inside the first 10kms and it's going to be a long day ahead of them trying to make the time cut. A break should go early and build up a good lead over the first two climbs. 

I don't think the GC men will be all that interested in chasing down a break tomorrow with the hard day to come on Monday to La Planche des Belles Filles. Contador knows he has Nibali in his pocket, and there is no point possibly in wasting energy the day before for possibly little gain with the long run in to the finish from the top of the climb.

Nibali and Astana won't chase nor will Movistar so it will be up to those with stage ambitions given the run in to try to pull back the breakaway. Picking the breakaway candidates is very hard again though as they will need to be able to climb and have enough in reserve to hold off any chasers on the run in to the finish.

Thomas Voeckler is a likely candidate for this sort of stage, he was born in the Vosges so may be looking to impress. He will look to get in the early break but so will about half the field who are looking for a stage win. He is 18/1 on Betfair and I think that's a back-to-lay bet - I don't think he'll win, but if he gets in the break we should be able to trade out around 3 or 4/1.

Peter Sagan is the favourite for the stage at best price 7/1 and this is surely just down to he being expected to get in the early break and then win at the finish. It may happen, but that is too much of a long shot to me to back him, I think that's a poor bet. A. he has to get in the break. B. he has to hang in there on the hard climbs up to the Grand Ballon and C. he has to mark his rivals in the break as they attack him in the run in. Not for me I think.

Simon Spilak is one though that interests me a little at 25/1 - there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow and storms are actually expected.. conditions that Spilak will like! He rolled in with the Autobus today over 20' down, alongside the sprinters and another fancied for tomorrow's stage, Albasini. They may have been takiing it easy today ahead of this stage and we might see Spilak looking to get in the break tomorrow.

Michael Albasini seemed to be in great shape, climbing well and chasing down GVA and Sagan on Stage 7 to try to set up Gerrans, but as I mentioned above, he seemed to take a day off today. He will be looking to get in the break I would think with that sort of finish, if it comes to a sprint from the breakaway members he should have a great chance in the sprint. 

Jan Bakelants is another who could be in it but we haven't seen anything from him so far in this race to suggest he has the form and the legs for a stage like this so I'll skip him.

Sylvain Chavanel would have been a likely candidate for this but he expended a lot of energy today. Tomorrow could be a day we see his team-mate Marcel Wyss have a go instead. Wyss rode well recently in the Tour de Suisse and the Tour de Romandie finishing 18th and 16th respectively. On stage 9 of the Tour de Suisse he finished 8th, less than 2 minutes behind Costa and Mollema and, although it finished on a summit it was a similar course before that with several climbs along the way. He is 160 on Betfair (best price 100/1 with bookies and that's a good back to lay bet with small stakes. 

Adam Hansen could be a back to lay as he may get in the break, but probably won't win. Jeremy Roy hasn't really got involved yet which is surprising as he is usually involved in a stage or two, tomorrow could be the day. He is 100/1 with BetVictor and that is worth a small e/w bet. He finished in 7th place on that stage Wyss finished in 8th I mentioned above so his climbing legs are in good shape. 

Christophe Riblon would be another that I would be seriously thinking about normally, but he hasn't displayed enough for me yet to suggest he will be up for it tomorrow, he has struggled on the climbs so far, losing lots of time today on top of the 8 minutes he lost yesterday.

Brice Feillu has been riding well for Bretagne Seche, finishing a superb 15th in today's stage. He is now over 10' back on the GC so even if the break gets a big lead he is still no danger to the yellow.. and even if they get an enormous lead, Nibali would be happy to pass the jersey on to him for a few days! 

So again, it's a hard day to call, will be one to watch for in-play betting again, but also I think we'll keep stakes small and scatter them around a bit and keep our powder dry for Monday!

Recommendations:

Marcel Wyss -  back at 160s on Betfaitr for 0.2pts

Simon Spilak - 0.3pts each way at 25/1 with BetVictor

Thomas Voeckler - back to lay at 19 on Betfair for 1pt

Jeremy Roy - 0.2pts each way at 100/1 with BetVictor

Michael Albasini - 0.4pts win at 20s or better on Betfair

Brice Feillu - 0.4pts win at 55 on Betfair.

Tom Dumoulin - 0.5pts e/w at 40/1 with Boyles paying 5 places

Back of Dumoulin for top 3 at 7/2 on betfair in play - 0.5pts

Lay of Gallopin in play at 2.0 for 3pts on Betfair

Match Bets 

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