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Published on Friday, 11 July 2014 21:34

Tour de France St. 8

Tomblaine to Gérardmer La Mauselaine

Saturday July 12th, 161kms 

We may have had a lumpy stage 2 through the Yorkshire countryside, but this is where we may see the first signs of who has good climbing legs or not with three climbs packed in to the last 27kms. The three climbs are back to back and give very little recovery time between each one before finishing on the summit of the Gérardmer La Mauselaine. 

We were very unlucky today. Greg Van Avermaet gave it all he had in an attack with Peter Sagan that lasted all the way to the last 2kms.. He still found the strength to finish 10th on the stage, showing the faith in him was justified. Also unlucky with Tom Dumoulin, our 100/1 man was just mugged for 3rd on the line by Tony Gallopin, unlucky for Paul W who tweeted me afterwards to say he was on him for a top 3 at 55/1 - that was a cracking bet, denied at the death.

Sylvain Chavanel also justified faith in him with a strong showing, prominent at the front on his luminous orange Specialized at the latter stages and sprinting to 8th place. I'm glad I didn't get with Sagan as I'd have been furious with him for losing that stage, it had his name all over it!

But it was an excellent, if surprising win for Mattteo Trentin of OPQS, to follow up his incredible victory in the Giro. Talansky, Van den Broeck and Van Garderen all came down today, with Van Garderen coming off the worst, losing just over a minute on the GC. Van den Broeck and Talansky both came down in the last 500m or so, so got the same time as the winners of the stage. Richie Porte looked strong, prominent at the front at the end and diving through the last dangerous bend at the front staying out of trouble (this was where JVDB came down). He moved up one place to 7th on the GC.

The Route

The route takes a Z-shape course as it winds its way towards the Vosges. The first 135kms or so are a gently sloping, but almost flat amble through the countryside, past the intermediate sprint at Dinozé at 100kms. The break of the day will have to work hard to build up enough of a buffer before they tackle the final three climbs, I would think they will need four minutes or so. Then suddenly, after several days of big ring riding they hit the Col de la Croix des Moinats which looks like a wall on the profile below.

In fact though this Cat 2 climb is relatively gentle in gradient, averaging  6% over the 7.6kms distance and it is a pretty steady gradient, the steepest sections only being 7.4%. It eases back to 2.9% 1600m from the top and the last 600m are at 4.3%. We're bound to see Astana, T-S and Sky come to the front early on here and there could be a real fight to be at the front coming to the foot of the Col.

A quick 5km descent follows then down to the base of the Col de Grosse Pierre. This Cat 2 climb is a very different sort of climb to the Croix des Moinats - it's only 3kms long but is a steeper gradient of 7.5%. But even that is a bit misleading as the first kilometre averages just 3.2% and the last 400m or so are more or less flat. 

In between this though, the middle 1500m average around 11.3% with a section just before it flatens out at the top that hits 16%. There could be some attacks here on this steep part by outsiders who may not fancy their chances against the favourites on the final cliimb, or if they are just feeling extremely strong. Again, another fast descent down from the summit, this time it's 9kms long, so anyone who has gained some time attacking on the Grosse Pierre will have to work very hard to hold off the chasers before they hit the final pull up to the finish. 

The final climb up to the finish at Gérardmer La Mauselaine is short and sharp. A Fleche-Wallone type finish - It's only 1.8kms long, but it averages a leg busting 10.3%. It's a pretty steady gradient too though, with the max steepness 13% just after they pass under the Flamme Rouge. 

The roads are pretty straight and long, so it will be hard to get out of sight of chasers for those on the attack. This is a Flech-Wallone type finish where timing will be everything. Go too early and you will be passed like Valverde passed Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin inside the last 200m. The steep 13% gradient with 800m or so to go will probably decide the top 5, the order may change on the run in. 

It's going to be fast and furious but it's unlikely we will see a changing of the yellow jersey unless Nibali has a really bad day (which incidentally I think he will have before the Tour is over.. When is the question!

Contenders and Favourites

First off a mention for Terence who tweeted me tonight with a heads-up on Richie Porte who was 33/1 with Boylesports, who are paying out on the first FIVE places

@Cyclingbetting Hey Ian, Richie Porte looked very strong at the end of today's stage and with no Froome 33/1 with Boyles e/w 1,2,3,4,5 huge!

— Terence Field (@TezField) July 11, 2014

Now Richie was one that I was thinking would be right up there tomorrow - as I have been mentioning all along I have been hearing that he is absolutely flying on the climbs. In fact the word I was getting a few weeks back was he was beating Froome on their training climbs, no mean feat! You can see in Brailsfords attitude and the way G Thomas is talking that they know they have a trick up their sleeves. As G said today after the stage "Hopefully this weekend we'll show what they got", 'they' being Nieve and Porte.

Porte showed himself well to the fore today, pulling a clever move in the last 400m to shoot ahead on the dangerouse right hander to stay out of trouble. Tomorrow will be his first real test though. If he is climbing as well as reported then you would expect him to be right up at the front. G and Kiryenka are two excellent chaperones to get him to the final climb in a good position, and Nieve should be there to help him on the final climb and he should be able to finish in the top 10 at least. 

His form early in the season with the win on Willunga Hill in the TDU and his excellent 4th and 5th place finishes in similar stages to this in the Vuelta Andalucia would put him right in the reckoning. Since then things haven't been great for him on the road, but we'll find out tomorrow if the talk has been accurate or not. At 33/1 for the first 5 places I think that is definitely worth an investment. 

The favourite for the stage and the most likely winner in my mind is Alejandro Valverde. Valverde has been quietely getting on with his job with no major dramas so far and sits in 9th place, just over 2 minutes behind Nibali. This is his terrain now though. Impressive winner of La Fleche Wallone, with an explosive burst in the last few hundred metres that took him past Kwiatkowski and Martin, if he pulls that move tomorrow again then there are few will be able to outpace him. He is best priced 9/2 with the bookies but there is 5/1 on Betfair and that is worth taking. 

Alberto Contador should be right up here too - I think he will be eager to try to get back time whenever he can and these steeper slopes might give him a chance to steal a handful of seconds back. I can see him attacking with 1km or so to go but Valverde and a few others possibly jumping on his wheel eventually and Valverde attacking again. He could be good for a top 3, but at 8/1 best I am going to skip it I think and watch for the in-play betting. If you do want to back him then I recommend you get yourself a Boylesports account by clicking here and take the 15/2 each way for the first five places. 

Kwiatkowski has been very active and almost won stage 6 with an audacious attack with 1km to go. As it is early in the Tour he still is good for climbs like this and he came close to winning at La Fleche. He could well be one of those to jump on Contador's wheel and his finishing kick might just carry him to a podium spot. If you did want to back him he is 25/2 on Betfair or take the 9/1 each way with Boylesports for their five places. 

I can't have Pierre Rolland, Thomas Voeckler, Simon Gerrans or Sagan for this tomorrow, I think the finish will be too fast and steep for them. Bauke Mollema is one that could come close at a big price - he is as big as 28/1 with Bet365, 22/1 with Boyles, but 40s on Betfair.He was 4th in La Fleche, which is an excellent result for a tall man and he will also be looking to make back time he has lost through crashes already. 

If Michael Albasini can just hang in there he could well win a reduced sprint at the top. OGE did say that they were working for Gerro today who wanted to go for the stage and that Albasini was the backup plan if Gerro wasn't up for it. As it turned out, Albasini worked really hard for Gerro in the final stages and rolled in a little behind the winners. Tomorrow could be his day though and it may be Gerro's turn to help set him up as the finish might be too steep for him. At 28/1 with Ladbrokes he is worth having onside I think.

Jurgen Van den Broeck and Romain Bardet should be in the leading group but will find the pace too quick at the finish. Vincenzo Nibali is still in the yellow jersey after his superb performance on the cobbles. Although he wouldn't mind passing it away for a while to let someone else do some work next week, I don't think this is the stage - I think the early break will be hunted down by Tinkoff-Saxo and Movistar to set up the finish for their men and it would be too dangerous for Nibali to allow a rival in to the yellow. I think he will play it safe tomorrow and just follow wheels, I don't think he will go on the offensive. If it does come to a reduced bunch sprint up the hill there are plenty faster than him to the line. 

Rui Costa could well be involved, it will be interesting to see how he fares, along with his team-mate Chris Horner who has been quietly putting in some good work towards the front at the key stages so far. Joaquim Rodriguez is 5th favourite for the stage around 12/1 generally but is as big as 16/1 but I can't be having him. He has been off the back on nearly every stage and clearly isn't fit enough yet. It may be that he is working himself to fitness and could come through tomorrow on a stage that normally would be perfect for him, but at that sort of price I am not interested. I think he will struggle.

For now though, I think Valverde will take all the beating, but Richie Porte, Albasini and Contador are each way bets I can't put you off as they will all be heavily involved I think.  

Recommendations:

Alejandro Valverde - 2pts win at 6.2 on Betfair

Michael Albasini - 0.5pts each-way at 28/1 with Ladbrokes

Richie Porte - 0.5pts each-way for first five place with Boylesports at 33/1 

Match Bets 

Chris Horner to beat Laurens Ten Dam at 8/11 with Bet365 - 1pt

John Gadret to beat Kruijswijk at 8/11 with Bet365 - 1pt

Valverde to beat Kwiatkowski, Contador to beat Nibali and Mollema to beat Costa - treble pays 5/2 with Bet365 (1pt)

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