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Published on Sunday, 22 June 2014 22:13

Tour de France 2014

England and France

Saturday July 5th to Sunday July 27th, 3,664km

It's the big one. La Grand Boucle. The warm-ups and preps have been done, the form is starting to show and all the signs are that we will have a battle royale over three weeks in July. Froome is looking vulnerable, Contador is looking the best he has been in a long time, Nibali has work to do and Talansky, Valverde and others will have their part to play. 

The Tour visits the UK in 2014, with three stages in England, but it also passes through Belguim and Spain in a very varied and exciting looking route. The 2014 route consists of:  

• 9 Flat stages
• 5 Hill stages
• 6 Mountain stages with 5 summit finishes
• 1 Individual Time Trial 
• 2 Rest days

The ASO have created a fascinating route for 2014, with the opening stages in England posing a far greater challenge to the riders than you might have thought for the opening three stages of the race. The first stage from Harrogate to Leeds should be relatively straight forward normally, but this is the first stage of the TDF and there are bound to be plenty nervous crashes and incidents and the finish is far from straight forward with a tough pull up to the finish. 

Stage 2 has been compared to Liege-Bastogne-Liege it has so many climbs on the day and there could be real drama on the road to Sheffield, culminating in the final pull up to the finish on Jenkin road which hits over 25% in places. We could see some significant time gaps among some of the GC favourites by the end of this stage. The final stage in England should see things settle down a little bit but there are still plenty of small roads around Essex to cause some problems. The run in to the City and on to Buckingham Palace should be fast and furious and it should end in a battle on the Mall for the sprinters. 

Across the channel then and the first stage in the north of France could possibly see a break build a big lead with a rolling profile that includes two Cat 4 climbs, but it is most likely to end in a sprint in Lille as they head in the direction of the cobbles. And stage 5 sees the peloton face one of the most feared and possibly one of the most significant stages of the race - a 155km run from Ypres to Arenberg Porte Du Hainaut which takes in no fewer than 9 categorised sections of Pavé. With the challenges and problems a day on the cobbles can bring we could see a significant victim or two like we saw in 2010 when a crash put an end to Frank Schlecks race on just stage 3, which also happened to finish in Arenberg. 

Stage 6 could be another one that could see a break in with a chance as a peloton, brutalised from the cobbles the day before might just let them go. But as sprint stages are in short supply the sprinters teams should probably pull it back together, for a tricky sprint. Stage 7 will be an interesting stage as it is more like a stage that will see a break succeed, It's the second longest stage of the race with a rolling profile, the last flatish stage before the Vosges mountains and it has a sting in the tail which should see the strong men of the break bid for victory.

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Stage 8 takes them in to the second week of the race and sees them tackle the first of a trio of tough stages in the Vosges mountains. This is going to be the first real chance for the puncheurs with 3 hard climbs in the last 25kms, including the second last climb of the Col de Grosse Pierre which hits 16% near the top and the 1.8km finishing climb which averages a nasty 11%. Stage 9 sees the climbing start ride from the flag drop on a relentless, rolling day of ups and downs. With lots of KOM points on offer for the first time, expect to see those fancying their chances for the spotted jersey to try to get in the early break. There's still 43kms left from the top of the last climb to a flat sprint finish so we may well see a reduced bunch of 40 or 50 guys scrap it out.

Stage 10 is a brute. Seven hard climbs on the way, culminating in the climb up to the Planche des Belle Filles, scene of Froome's breakthrough stage win in 2012. It's a hard, hard day which could see a break build up a big lead that could hold it all the way to the finish and possibly take the yellow jersey. But behind, if the break has stayed away, there will be another crucial battle for the GC - there could be big time gaps today on that final climb up to the Planche. Stage 11 is similar stage to 10 in that it is also a hard day of rolling climbs, but it finishes at the bottom of a fast descent rather than on a summit, so look for the late attacks on the descent. 

Stage 12 sees them continue heading south and they arrive at the eastern fringes of the Massif Central with the finish in Saint-Étienne. A tiring day with 4 more medium climbs to get over, the last of which they crest with just 20km to go. Expect to see the likes of Sagan looking to shake off the sprinters on the final climb to give him a shot at the stage win. Stage 13 sees the first foray in to the Alps with a summit finish at Chamrousse and the first real long climb of the Tour at 18kms. It could be where we another seperation of pretenders and contenders.

Stage 14 takes them deeper in to the Alps with a triple header of climbs - they start with the Col du Lautaret, which although is officially a long looking 34kms, they will actually have been climbing for around 82kms from the start by the time they crest it. Next up is the highest point in the Alps, the Col d'Izoard and that's followed by the finish up a climb being used for the very first time at Risoul (although it has been used in the Tour de l'Avenir and the Dauphiné). A very steady climb of 6.9% for 12.6kms, coming at the end of a hard day it could be a stage to put Froome's Sky Team under pressure.   

Stage 15 should be a nothing day, a day of recovering from the Alps hurt of the day before, but as there is a rest day the next day and the riders head towards the winds of the Languedoc, expect furious break action and late echelons looking to split the pack. It should come down to a sprint finish though, unless the break is given too much rope by a tired peloton.

Stage 16 follows the second rest day of the race and they will face the first of three hard days in the Pyrenees, and the longest stage of the entire race. At 237.5kms there are going to be a lot of tired legs by the time they hit the main challenges of the day as they main climbs come inside the last 85kms with the HC categorised Port de Balès summit coming just 21kms from the finish.

11kms at 7.7% average should reduce the front group down to maybe 20 riders at most and history has shown that if you can go over the top with 30-40 seconds advantage you should be able to hold it on the descent to the finish, so a late attack could well win it. Watch out for Nibali or Chavanel (if still up there) on this one.. This is also the climb that saw Contador attack Andy Schleck when he dropped his chain in 2010.

Following on from the longest stage on the race the organisers have added the shortest stage on the race in stage 17. But easy it most certainly is not. With three Cat 1 climbs and a HC climb to the finish crammed in to just 76kms of racing it is going to be fast and brutal. The first 48kms are rising gradually up hill but almost flat, then it is climbing or descending all the way to the finish, with very little flat road in between climbs. This could be a huge day for the GC as anyone not in great form could find themselves sliding down the GC as there could be big gaps at the end of the HC climb to Saint-Lary - Pla d'Adet. It will also be a huge day for the Autobus boys, a short stage like this means the time limit will be pretty tight and many could be fighting all day to avoid elimination. This could well come down to a battle between Froome and Contador with Contador possibly looking to gain time ahead of the ITT.

Stage 18 is going to be a monster stage, it's just a shame that it is on a Thursday and not a weekend.. work's going to get in the way for many of us! It's relatively short again at 145.5kms, but after a flat run for 61kms to the bonus sprint point they start up the infamous Col du Tourmalet - although officially categorised at 17.1kms at 7.3%, the climbing will have started from Trébons, making the climb twice as long as the official distance given.

After a 35km descent or so they start up the final climb to the HC categorised climb to Hautacam, another of the Tour's great climbs. 13.6kms at 7.8% average, the climb is pretty steady around 6.8% up until 5kms to go where it kicks up to 10-11% for 2kms, then with 2kms to go it hits 10.4% for a kilometre too. The last 2.5kms average around 7% and it should be a fascinating climax once more. Will we see some GC contenders try an audacious early move on the Tourmalet (Bertie I'm looking at you...) as a team like T-S could blow things apart and isolate Froome. Roche could be up the road to wait for Bertie and it could be an amazing chase.. 

Stage 19 will see the remaining sprinters battle it out again, possibly.. or as it comes after the three brutal stages in the Pyrenées there could be a lot of very tired men and some with their eyes on the following day's TT so a break has a chance of making it. If a break does go and holds a decent lead, there is the perfect launching pad inside the last 25kms with three bumps to get over, including the Cat 4 climb of the Côte de Montbazillac. Off the top of it, there are only 13 fast kilometres to the finish so someone with a small lead of 30" or so could hang on. 

Stage 20 is the one and only TT of the race and quite a challenge it is though. 54kms over an undulating course that features five climbs to get over along the way.

It could be the stage that decides the winner, possibly, and maybe even places all the way through the top 10. It should favour the TT specialists like Martin and Cancellara but Froome should go well on this course too. There could be huge gaps between some of the finishers on a course like this so those near the top better have held something in reserve.

On to the final stage then and the usual procession in to Paris. As long as Kittel is still in the race, he probably wins. If he isn't, then we'll look at who is left closer to the time to try to pick the winner! 

My first thoughts are this is going to be a crazy, fascinating, entertaining and enthralling race. Only one TT on effectively the last day of racing means that there should be plenty of agressive racing in a bid to gain time on the likes of Froome. The opening stages look frightening with the possibility of all sorts of problems, from the small lanes of Yorkshire to the many hills on the road to Yorkshire and the cobbles of stage 5 on the way to Arenberg. 

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