Stage 2

 

Stage 2

So a good start for us with Dumoulin coming within 6" of winning the stage, but Tony Martin was just far superior to everyone else, powering up and down the course. Great ride by Dumoulin though and the 22/1 each way gives us a positive start at least. It was also a good day for our lay of Wiggo for the GC as he struggled on the descent and ended up in 14th place, losing 10" to Mollema and 13" to Pozzovivo.

Interestingly, Pete Kennaugh actually did a better TT than him, finishing in 11th, 3" ahead of Wiggo. It will be interesting to see if Wiggins loses time tomorrow and Kennaugh does better than him if they start riding for Kennaugh for the rest of the race... probably not, but we'll get an idea after tomorrow's stage. There were excellent rides from Sagan in 6th, Slagter in 8th and also from Phil Deignan in 25th, sets him up also to be a contender in the mountains if, as it looks like, he has brought his Giro form with him to Switzerland. 

Stage 2 is a nice early test for the climbers, with two HC climbs inside the first 102kms a Cat 2 climb after 119km and then a little Cat 2 with just 20km to go. It looks like a day for a break as the GC men will be watching and waiting I think until next weekend. This is a very different opening road stage from the one at the Dauphine where they finished on a mountain summit finish, here they have a flat run in to the finish and there is little incentive really for the GC men to enter in to a battle so early.

So who can get in the breakaway? Hard to say but I'll pick a few that may be in it for small stakes. Michael Albasini stands out for me as a very likely candidate for the breakaway and the stage win. Even if he is not in the breakaway and the break is caught he has a chance of winning from a reduced peloton sprint or attacking it late. He is only 9/2 with Paddy's but 13/2 with Bet365 and that is worth a small bet.

Peter Sagan is the 10/3 favourite but I'm not sure he'll get in the break of the day. If he does then it will be very hard to beat him. If he doesn't get in the break but it's caught and the finish is fought out by a reduced peloton of GC men, he'll be very hard to beat. But I am not sure he will make the break and breakaway guys may not want to be in a break with Sagan so it might be hard for him to get in the break of the day.

Tom Jelte Slagter rode a great prologue so is clearly in good shape and he is a possible candidate for the break, but I think he may have GC ambitions and may well sit and wait with the GC men tomorrow. Three others that I like at big prices for fun are Philip Deignan, who seems to have brought his good Giro form with him and is a big 125/1. Nino Schurter is on home soil and rode a good prologue also and is 150/1 and Jeremy Roy likes a long breakaway on a day like this and is also 125/1. And one at a slightly lower price but who might be up for getting away on a day like this is Janier Acevedo of Garmin Sharp, 19th in the Prologue today, 9th overall in the Amgen Tour of California, he is a good climber who will love getting away on a stage like this. At 50/1 he might be lively tomorrow. I'll also watch in-play to see how it's looking for other opportunities.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Michael Albasini at 13/2 with Bet365

0.2pts on Phil Deignan at 125/1 with PP

0.2pts on Nino Schurter at 150/1 with PP

0.2pts win on Jeremy Roy at 125/1 with PP

0.5pts win on Janier Acevedo at 50/1 with PP

 

Stage 3

Stage 3

Sarnen to Heiden, 202.9kms

 

Dreadfully close today with my 125/1 pick Philip Deignan just beaten in to second place by Cameron Meyer of Orica-Green Edge. It was a briliant ride by Deignan, showing indeed, as I suspected, that he has carried some fantastic form in to the TDS. I am pretty annoyed though that I only had him to win and not each way as it could have been a very nice return on an each-way bet had I had one. That'll teach me to always bet each-way on those kinds of prices, happened a few weeks back with Geschke 2nd at 80/1 in the Giro too..

Stage 3 then and this looks more like it for Sagan and the other puncheur types. There is a reasonably flat opening to the stage with the first climb not coming until 65km in and that's a Cat 2 climb up to Sattel, which they crest with 82.8km gone. They then descend for 17km ot so and have another flat little section before hitting the jagged last 80kms. They go over 6 climbs on the way to the finish, none of which are very hard but 2 of which are Cat 2 climbs. It is a relentless barrage of little hills coming approximately every 10kms, until they hit the final run up to the finish line at Heiden. 

There will be a break but I'm not sure that it will stay away tomorrow as the puncheurs teams will want to pull this one back for the sprint finish up the hill. The final climb is 3.1kms at an average of 5.6% with the first 800m or so the steepest at 7.3%, easing a bit to 4-5% for the rest of it. It is a very tricky finishing run in with a really sharp, almost 180 degree turn with just 300m or so to go, and then a sharp right-hander that takes them to a short finishing straight. This sort of finish is another reason to lean towards Sagan, there are not many better than him at scrappy finishes like this on an uphill drag. 

Peter Sagan is favourite naturally then at 5/2 and I think he is a strong candidate for the win for the reasons I have given already - he could possibly get in the break of the day, so Cannondale won't need to chase, or if he doesn't Cannondale, Garmin-Sharp, OGE and a few others should work to keep it within reach and reel it in in the run in to the finish. If so, then Sagan's abilities over a short punchy climb like this and tricky run in should mean he will be very hard to beat. 

Rivals? Michael Albasini - in great form, on home soil and the team buoyed by Cameron Meyer's stage win today. Can go in the break also but I think he will wait and attack late, or if not should fancy himself in a sprint finish with most of these guys. One problem though, he lost over 9mins today so maybe the legs aren't so hot, but that was a very different stage today and it may be that he was saving the legs (and losing time) for an attack on tomorrow's stage. Tom Jelte Slagter will love this punchy finish too and rode a great prologue to finish 8th, and won two stages on finishes like this in Paris-Nice. He has GC ambitions this week and every bonus second will count, so I expect him to feature at the finish. 

Bauke Mollema is another who is looking to win this race and is looking very fit and fresh and he may well launch himself off the front in the last kilometre. Whether he will have the speed to hold off these guys chasing behind is another question though, I'm not sure. John Degenkolb is a real dark horse for this stage too - he has been at an altitude training camp recently working on his climbing and is not bad at getting over these sorts of finishes. He finished 4th after all on the Cauberg in the World Championships won by Philippe Gilbert, behind Valverde and EBH. He could be the one to beat in the sprint if he can just hang on to Sagan in the last 3kms. 

Gasparotto, Evans, Kreuziger, Costa and Rebellin are all danger men too, as are Iglinskiy and Kolobnev at big prices, but I think a win bet on Sagan with each-way bets on Albasini and Degenkolb should give a good chance of a return. 

 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 5/2 with 888Sport

0.5pts e/w on Michael Albasini at 13/2 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on John Degenkolb at 20/1 with Bet365

 

 

 

Stage 4

Stage 4

Heiden to Ossingen, 162km

A great day for me today with Peter Sagan doing exactly as I expected him to do and negotiated the tricky finish better than anyone else, winning the sprint to land the 5/2 bet. He won from my other pick Albasini, proving his detractors wrong getting over that last climb which wasn't as hard as some thought. It was also wise to leave Slagter and Swift out of it, Slagter disappointed after being in the right places up until the very end and Swift finished over 12 mins down. Degenkolb didn't make it to the finish though after doing a big pull at the front with about 5kms to go, he came home 4 mins down.

It was a good day for my lay of Wiggins too, as that was almost prophetic too as he downed tools today and lost 2'25" to lose all chance on the GC and is now 150/1 with Bet365, from 7/4 that he was on Saturday. Bauke Mollema, my selection at 7/1 is now 5/2 favourite but there's quite a few good riders still in contention such as Kreuziger, Pinot and Costa. I think Mollema has to be strong favourite now though, he looks in superb shape. I've been following him on facebook and boy does he put in the miles and the training - and he shares it all with regular updates and pictures. He's quite entertaining on Facebook actually, I'm a big fan! 

Stage 3 might have been one for the punchier types but stage 4 should give the sprinters a chance to shine finally. There are a couple of lumps and bumps along the way including two Cat 4 cols inside the last 45kms but it should come down to a sprint at the end of the day. 

When I looked at the profile first it looked like an uphill sprint and thought it will favour the likes of Ben Swift, Degenkolb, Mezgec and Sagan over the likes of Cavendish and Coquard. Looking at it again now though a bit closer, it doesn't seem to be the case and looks like one for the pure sprinters. It does slope gently upwards from 3km out but the last 600m or so are flat and it will be a nice fast finish. 

The course is nothing worth talking about, a mostly flat run to the finishing town of Ossingen, which they reach for the first time after 105kms. Once they pass the finishing line they go off on 2 laps of a finishing circuit of 28kms. It's a little bit up and down with a Cat 4 climb to get over at the 117km and 145km mark. This isn't much of a problem though as it's only 1.5kms at 5.5% and they crest it for the final time with 15km to go, so expect a fast charge to the line. 

Mark Cavendish has a strong team with him, with Velits, Steegmans, Boonem, Renshaw, Trentin and Martin and they are going to be using this as a dress rehearsel for the Tour, with only Pettachi really missing from their likely lead-out train. Cav has won 2 stages in the Tour of Cali recently, following up his FOUR stage wins in the Tour of Turkey - in which he beat Degenkolb, Sagan and Van Poppel who reoppose him here. On that sort of form he has to be stong favourite to win the stage and the 9/4 with Paddy Power has to be taken, he is only 9/5 on Betfair. I expect him to be around 5/4 with 5km to go when OPQS are drilling it at the front.

His main challenger will probably be John Degenkolb again, he is pretty close to Cavendish and often gets first run on him. If Cav gets held up at all then he could hold on, but with a nice wide long finishing straight of 500m Cav should be ok and will likely fly past him at the death again. He has de Koert and Sinkeldam with him, two very capable leadout men and if they get it right on the day they could well beat Cav.

It is going to be very tight amongst the top 4 or 5 I think with the high quality sprinters that are here - Alexander Kristoff has been in great form lately too, the winner of Milan-San-Remo has won 6 races in the month of May, in Norway and Germany, but despite that he has been pretty lightly raced since winning MSR, but is clearly in great shape at the moment. Sagan should be right up there too but I can't see him beating the top two like in California, 4th to 6th for me.

Sacha Modolo crashed today so I'm not tempted to back him, he wouldn't have been in the first three anyway I think. Danny Van Poppel has been sprinting really well with a 3rd place behind Greipel and Morkov in the Tour of Luxembourg's Stage 1, after winning the Prologue the day before. This is a far higher grade though and I can't see him in the top 5. I think this is too flat and fast for Swift too. 

I think it is a day for Cav to notch his ninth win of the season and get in some great practice with his team ahead of the TDF. Degenkolb can chase him home ahead of Kristoff and Sagan. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Mark Cavendish at 9/4 with Paddy Power

0.75pts each-way on John Degenkolb at 9/1 with Paddy Power 

 

 

Stage 5

Stage 5

Ossingen to Büren A.D. Aare, 183.6kms

Another good day today with Cavendish easily landing the great odds of 9/4, surfing the wheels inside the last kilometre and nipping after Modolo when he made his move before blasting away from the whole lot of them to win by about two lengths. Sagan tried hard to catch him but Iike many times before he was just not in the same league and was beaten in to 3rd place by JJ Lobato who did an excellent sprint.

Kristoff was unlucky, running in to traffic, I think he could be closer next time. Swift never got in a blow, neither did Degenkolb unfortunately though - apparently he crashed today so may have been a bit sore and took it easy, he lost the wheel of De Koert on the run in and never got involved again. There was some confusion as to the steepness or otherwise of the last 3kms, but I was pretty sure that it was not difficult at all and it turned out that way and 9/4 was a gift on Cav. So three winning days out of four (and it could have been four out of four if I'd backed Deignan each way at 125/1..)

Apparently Bradley Wiggins has a chest infection and is on anti-biotics, when I predicted he would have a hard week, I didn't think it would be this bad, he even crashed today and lost another 11'55" to put him nearly 15mins down. Now if someone would just lay my back bet at 120 so I can free up my liability from laying him I'd appreciate it!

Tomorrow's stage is probably going to be another procession for Cav I think, but the fancy prices for him are gone now, he is best price 8/11 with PP. It should be pretty straightforward like today's stage as they head southwest from Ossingen to Buren. There are three little bumps to get over between the 40km and 80km marker, and although they are Cat 4, 3 and 3 they shouldn't really have an effect on the outcome as there are 100km to go once over the 3rd climb.

There is one more climb to get over with 25km to go, it comes just after they pass the finish line for the first time and they head off out on a finishing circuit of 33kms. It's a short, sharp Cat 4 but again, comes too far from the finish to deny what looks almost certainly like being a sprinters stage. The finish is a bit challenging though and it could be a messy sprint tomorrow. With 400m to go the road takes a sharp right and then a left hand turn woth 200m to go and it's a short, slghtly uphill sprint to the line then.  

It could mean we could see problems and possibly crashes as everyone tries to be at the front hitting the last 500m. Cav's train got derailed today on the run in, but he didn't need it in the end, he just sat in and used all his experience and skill to pick a wheel and then go when the time was right. I'm not sure I want to be backing him tomorrow though at odds on with that sort of finish, he's been known to get in a tangle on these kinds of stages. There will be others willing to take more risks tomorrow and maybe he will ease back a little. I will wait and watch to see what happens in-play, if he goes 5/4 or so I might reconsider. 

Kristoff is a big looking 16/1 for tomorrow's stage, I think he was unlucky today - he got boxed in but seemed to be sprinting quite fast, faster than some around him. He is well able to look after himself normally so it was a bit strange to see him get boxed in and denied like that today. I think he will be making a big effort to make up for that tomorrow and the slightly uphill finish will suit him too. Some of the sprints he won in Norway recently were quite messy and his power carried him through like in MSR. At 16/1 I think he is worth a bet to make Cav eat his words after saying today that none of his 'main rivals for the TDF are here except Sagan'..

JJ Lobato finished very fast today and is sure to be right up three again, and if it is a messy scrap Sacha Modolo could well podium. Peter Sagan loves these kinds of finishes too though as we saw on stage 2, there aren't many better than him on a scrappy right/left zig-zag type finish. It isn't a long finishing straight so if he can negotiate the last 400m in a good position he may be at the front coming out of that last bend with 200m to go. He is 11/1 with Paddy Power and that could be worth an each-way bet to get on the podium again. John Degenkolb lost his leadout man for not the first time again today and a scrappy finish like this could see him struggle to be in the first 5 going in to the last bends again. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 16/1 with Paddy Power and 0.5pts win at 16/1

0.5pts each-way on Peter Sagan at 11/1 with Paddy Power

Look to back Cav at odds against if a break gets a big lead in-play. 

(actually ended up laying Cav at 1.83 for 2pts and 2.1 for 2pts as I posted up on Twitter during the day)

Matchbets: 

Alexander Kristoff to beat Sacha Modolo at 4/5

Van Poppel to beat Appalonio at 2/5 

Cavendish to beat Degenkolb at 1/4

2pts on the treble at 2.1/1

 

Stage 6

Stage 6

Buren to Delémont, 192.8kms

Well it turned out exactly as I expected from the point of view of the dangerous finish and Cavendish's chances, as he was brought down in a crash in that right hand bend I highlighted yesterday. I layed him for 2pts at 4/5 and 2pts at 11/10 as I tweeted during the day so it made up for missing out with Kristoff who was boxed in badly by Degenkolb on the last bend and finished 3rd. Sagan almost landed another winner for us though but I'll take the each-way on his 2nd place at 9/1. Wiggins called it a day too and has gone home. A bad day for the Brits in Switzerland. 

That looks like it was Cav's last chance to win a stage too in this race as he will not be winning tomorrow's stage and all that's left is the TT and two mountain stages. I wouldn't be surprised if he went home after that bang today but maybe he wants the mountain training ahead of the TDF. 

Stage 6 could be one for the breakaway with a rolling profile that sees them take in a Cat 1 and Cat 2 climb inside the first 75kms and we should see a break gain up to 5 or 6 minutes early on I think. Just after the first two climbs there's an uncategorised climb and then a plateau for about 25kms before they start descending for nearly 50kms down towards the finish town of Delémont which they pass for the first time after 147kms.

They then head out on a loop to the north-west of the town, taking in the Cat 2 climb first of the Col des Rangiers after 161.6kms and that's followed 19.5kms later by the Cat 3 climb of Le Rond-Pré. From there it is a very fast 9km descent down towards the finish, with the final 3kms or so being a flat sprint to the line for those who are left. 

I can't see many sprinters making it to the finish so it will come down to the puncheurs types and GC men to fight it out. There are plenty who fall in to that category so it should be an exciting last 40kms or so. The likes of Cannondale, OGE, Movistar and Sky though will look to pull things back together over the final two climbs as they have men they fancy for a stage victory.

I think it will come down to a reduced bunch sprint finish with maybe 40 or 50 guys involved, as they will have shed quite a few on those last two climbs to set it up for their men. Sagan is the obvious choice for this stage and will take all the beating. He isn't likely to be dropped on these climbs and will outsprint most of those that will contest the finish like he did on Monday. Michael Albasini is likely to be his biggest challenger again and may try a different tactic this time and go from a bit farther out on the descent, or if not he should come close in the sprint. 

Sky were talking up Ben Swift's chances today, saying that he has been targeting this stage and even sat up and took it easy today to save himself for tomorrow's stage. With that in mind he has to be one to keep onside, Sky will need to try to take something from the race and lift the spirits after Wiggo pulled out today with his chest infection/crash injury. He is 13/1 on Betfair and that is worth a small investment. 

Sacha Modolo, Degenkolb and Kristoff are all sprinters who on their day could make it over the last two climbs but I'm not sure they will. JJ Rojas could be the other big danger though at a big looking 25/1, he should be able to get over the climbs ok and as we saw a few days ago his sprint is looking good too. Finally, a joker - Bauke Mollema at 80/1 - he could well try to get involved at the finish here. He sprinted to 4th in the sprint behind Sagan on stage 3 and he is also a possible attacker on the descent and run in to the finish in an attempt to steal a few seconds. At 80/1 he is worth an e/w stab. The 5/6 in the matchbet with Cadel Evans at Paddy Power has to be taken too. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 2/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts win at 13/1 on Ben Swift on Betfair

0.3pts e/w on Bauke Mollema at 80/1 with Paddy Power

MatchBets:

3pts on Mollema to beat Evans at 5/6 with Paddy Power

Add in Sagan to beat Swift, Albasini to beat Kolobnev, Rojas to beat Dillier and it pays 7/2 (1pt).

 

 

 

 

 

Stage 7

Stage 7

Worb to Worb, 24.5kms

A short preview tonight, I am attending a work event and won't be home until late. A chaotic finish today and a massive destruction job by Tony Martin set up stage winner Matteo Trentin for victory. Sagan was gapped when Martin put the hammer down and was left scrapping for minor places though. Thankfully Bauke Mollema did the business for my big match bet, beating Evans comfortably when landing 11th place on the stage. 

Tomorrow is the big TT of the race, 24.5kms over a lumpy course which contains two climbs. The first 7kms are flat before they hit the first climb of the day, a 4km drag. Then a 2km descent is followed quickly by the second climb of the day which drags on for about 8kms. From the 19km mark though it is all downhill to the finish and should be a very fast last 5.5kms for the riders. 

Tony Martin did a lot of work today to set up Matteo Trentin, will he pay for that effort tomorrow? Probably not. And anyway, he is 2/5 favourite so he's not worth backing anyway. Second favourite is Tom Dumoulin at 10/1, followed by Cancellara at 14/1 and Dennis at 18/1 (early prices from PP). 

There is not much value there with any of them really as they are all fighting for the place money you'd have to think. So even backing Dumoulin at 10/1 each-way effectively is only paying out 3/4 for your stake as you will lose your win stake. I'll take a look later to see if I can find some match bet that might offer better value. I'm not tempted to back Cancellara though, I don't think he is fit enough yet. 

 

 

Stage 8

Stage 8

Delémont to Verbier, 219.1kms. 

The Time Trial has really shaken things up with Rui Costa and Matthias Frank being the big winners with their great rides and Bauke Mollema and Romain Kreuziger the big losers with their poor ones. Tony Martin clings on to his lead but you would think he may relenquish it tomorrow given the finish up to Verbier. 

It's a finish that's been used many times before in the TDS and on this, the longest stage of the race we should see another reshuffle at the top of the GC come tomorrow afternoon. The first 195km or so are relatively flat with just a few uncategorised climbs interrupting the long slog to the bottom of the double step climb up to Verbier. 

The first part is a Cat 3 pull up to Volleges, a 14km long climb that looks steeper than it is on the map - it actually only averages 2.7%, but this is just the hors d'oeuvres for the main event to come, the final climb up to the ski station at Verbier. There is first a short little plateau though for about 4kms and then it starts heading upwards. The climb is 8.2kms long at an average of 7.8%, but it does descend a little 1.8km from the line so that drags the overall average down a little and it's probably closer to a steady 8% average for the majority of the climb. 

Once over that little descent there is one final kick up to the finish line at an average of 6.6% for the last kilometre. As you can see in the map below though there are a couple of sharp turns inside the last 200m, the finish is where the 5 is marked in the orange circle in the top left corner. 

It will mean that if there is a small group comes to the finish together the final sprint could be scrappy and it may come down to guile and experience. 

I think it will be fought out by the GC challengers at the finish though, I think with just one more stage to go after this one that anyone with ambitions to win the race will have to try to make a move today rather than risk leaving it until the last day. We saw last weeked that nothing can be taken for granted leaving things until the final day! I think the break will be kept manageable and will be within sight coming up the first of the two final climbs to set up the stage for the GC battle. With Martin having a 28" lead too though the likes of Lampre, Belkin and Trek will be looking to set a very high pace up the last two climbs to try to drop him and distance him so the pace should be quite high. 

The favourite for the stage is Rui Costa and you can see why following his tremendous Time Trial today, leading the way up until the two TT specialists in the race Martin and Dumoulin came and blew away his time. Still, he was 45" ahead of Pinot and over a minute ahead of Mollema and Kreuziger, two of the favourites for the GC starting in the morning, and set the 2nd fastest time up the climb in the TT too. This is the sort of climb he loves, in fact he won here in 2012, the last time the race came up here. It's not too steep for him at 8% and is nice and steady, with a chance to attack 2km out with a tricky finish that isn't a problem for him. He clearly has great legs given his TT time and we could finally see him break his duck in the Rainbow Stripes, at a good time just before the TDF. 

Second favourite is Bauke Mollema around 6/1 best price, and he has to do something tomorrow. His TT was very disappointing, finishing way off the pace and giving him a mountain to climb (sorry) this weekend to win the race he was favourite for this morning. If it does come down to a final select 6 or 8 fighting out the finish, he is bound to be there and is not bad in a sprint. He will attack I think from a few kms out and may attack several times to try to get away and make up time, but I've a doubt he will be able to get away solo. He has a good sprint on him though so has a good chance of a stage win tomorrow. He won on a similar finish last year up to Crans Montana, where he left the likes of Pinot, Kreuziger, Frank and Dan Martin behind so has to be among the top favourites again tomorrow. 

Matthias Frank should be heavily involved at the finish tomorrow too.. When I asked my boy who he thinks will win tomorrow, he replied 'Frank, on home soil, a climb he will like..' - he is only 10, but hard to argue with that logic, I couldn't have put it better myself. He rode a superb TT too, only 17" off Costa and nearly a minute ahead of Mollema and Kreuziger. He finished second on that stage won by Mollema last year and also won two stages on similar sorts of finishes (although shorter final climbs) in the Tour of Austria, and the Swiss boy will be well up for this stage as a podium place on the GC is most definitely up for grabs. 

Thibaut Pinot and Romain Kreuziger are going to be two guys to watch tomorrow too as they would not have the best sprints in the GC group and will have to make up a lot of time too, so will have to attack hard and early on the climb I think to try to shake off the speedier finishers like Mollema and Costa. Based on their TTs today I think though that they will struggle to do that and may be reeled in before the end.

Two others to watch are the old hand Cadel Evans and the dark horse Sergio Pardilla.. Evans did a good TT today to finish an excellent 11th place and will like this kind of steady climb as it is not too steep. There are no explosive guys here like Quintana, Froome or Contador so he may hang in there a little longer than he has in recent races, and if he does he could be a danger in the sprint to the line. Sergio Pardilla has targeted this race and has been riding really well lately and did a superb prologue, finishing ahead of Wiggins in 12th place. He also finished 12th on stage 3, leading home the Slagter/Martin group that was given a 5" split from the leading group. He may well be able to slip away a little un-noticed as they reach the last 5km or so.

There are loads of others who could be involved - Acevedo, Deignan, Rubiano, Slagter, Barguil etc so it should be a fantastic finish to the stage, with Rui Costa riding away from his rivals and possibly in to the yellow jersey.

Recommendations:

Rui Costa - 2pts win at 9/2 on Betfair (best price only 7/2 with bookies)

Sergio Pardilla - 0.5pts each-way at 100/1 with Skybet.

Cadel Evans - 0.3pts each-way at 33/1 with Paddy Power

Sergio Pardilla to beat Thibout Pinot at 3/1 with Bet365 (2pts)

Stage 9

Stage 9  

Martigny to Saas-Fee, 156.7kms 

On to the final stage then and Tony Martin has done fantastically well to not only cling on to his yellow jersey but to actually increase his lead now to 51" to Tom Dumoulin and 1'05" to Rui Costa. It was a superb ride from Dumoulin also though to finish in 14th place, just 40" down on the winner. Kreuziger and Mollema tried but just couldn't get enough time, but it was enough to move them both up 6 places, within two minutes of Martin. It was an excellent ride too by my 100/1 man Pardilla, finished in 16th, but importantly, 1'20" ahead of Thibaut Pinot who struggled and was dropped inside the last 4kms when the pace ramped up. 

It's a big stage now tomorrow - Martin may have a 51" lead, but he is most certainly not home and dry, a fact reflected in his price, which is still 8/15.. That's a 65% chance of him winning, but a 35% chance of him losing his lead tomorrow. With 9 riders within 2'30" of him though, it certainly is possible - this is a very hard stage with 2 Cat 1 climbs and a Cat 2 climb along the route, before a final pull up to the HC summit finish at Saas-Fee. 

Both of the Cat 1 climbs are around 10kms long, the first, after just 30kms averages 6.8% and that's followed by a little descent and a plateau flat part, before kicking up again with the Cat 2 climb to St Martin, which averages 4.6%. Then a fast, tricky descent for 20kms until they hit the Rhone Valley. They now get a 25km flat section to gather themselves, refuel and get ready for the tough last 50kms. First up is the Cat 1 climb up to Eischoll, a 7% drag over 7.5kms, which kicks up a little more after the KOM marker, then decends fast back down for a brief bit of respite in the valley. 

Finally, they tackle the stage and possibly race deciding climb up to Saas-Fee.. It's not such a hard climb - it averages just 5.4%, but it is a very long climb at 20.1kms long. It is going to be a real war of attrition on this climb with the challengers probably going to gang up on Martin to try to expose him and drop him. He could be in for a really tough day tomorrow. The climb is pretty steady but there are sections at nearly 10% around the 12km mark and the 19th kilometre averages 9.5%, the 20th kilometre 7.3%. With 1km to go though the climb eases off to under 3% average and if there are a few riders together it gets a little tricky inside the last 200m with two sharp turns like in today's stage, which saw Kreuziger nip past Mollema to take 2nd place. 

I think they will be attacking Martin from a long way out here, maybe the riders will take inspiration from Talanksy and co last Sunday when they ripped up the script and treated us to some amazing old-school racing! With two Cat 1 climbs along the way, teams like Tinkoff, Belkin and Lampre are sure to be putting him under a lot of pressure, and he may find himself pretty tired and alone hitting the last climb. With early breaks sure to go, I wouldn't be surprised if these rival teams put some men in the break, riders like Ten Dam and Valls Ferri, as they are only just over 3' behind Martin and this will force OPQS to chase to preserve his lead. As I said before, he could be in for a really hard day.. he has to respond, but can't chase everything you would think, but he is the Panzerwagen after all!

I have had one man in mind for this stage all week and didn't back him for today's stage as I thought it didn't suit him as much as tomorrow's stage. He still managed to finish 6th on the stage and I think he will have a great chance of winning tomorrow. He is of course one of my favourites, as you have probably gatherer by now, Philip Deignan! I backed him on Monday at 125/1 when he finished 2nd and I was kind of hoping for something like 33/1 or 40/1 for tomorrow's stage but unfortunately not - although he seems to have opened at 40/1 with BetVictor, that doesn't seem to have lasted very long at all and I had to settle for 10/1 on him. What a difference a week makes! I think he could try to get in the early breaks tomorrow and could do a repeat of Monday's stage, but as this finishes on a climb and not on a flat sprint like Monday he would have a better chance of stage victory. 

If he does miss the break, he can then just sit back and get an armchair ride to the finish as the GC men battle it out and try to pull back whatever breaks have been away. He can then possibly attack later on when fresher than the GC men who will have been stressing and pushing themselves all day. Tomorrow could finally be the day he takes a victory after a number of superb performances, possibly on the day that Nicholas Roche wins the GC in the Route du Sud, a day after winning a stage magnificently.

Rui Costa to me looked very tired today and I can't see him winning tomorrow, neither will Pinot based on today's poor showing. Evans will find this too hot, as will Andy Schleck (can't believe he is only 33/1 for this stage!) but there were a number of riders who impressed today with good rides who could be involved. The stage winner, Chaves of course looked really sharp and strong, accelerating away like he did, but also hanging on from a charging Mollema and Kreuziger. All three riders could well win tomorrow's stage as they were clearly the three strongest climbers today - in fact, they are so close and hard to separate, Bet365 make them co-favourites at 11/2.

Mollema looked strong today and must fancy it tomorrow - whether he will go early in the day, early in the climb or keep it until around the last 5kms or so we'll have to wait and see, but you would think he'll have to go early if he fancies his GC chances. With the Tour in mind I am sure he will want to really push himself and test his climbing to the full so I think he will go early on the last climb and look to pull away from Martin. He may even have Clement or Tens Dam up the road to bridge to, two strong riders who could be a big help tomorrow. I am not going to back him for the stage but I haven't given up on my GC bet on him yet!

Esteban Chaves was excellent today but will it have taken a lot out of him? I'm not sure - like Deignan, he could well be in the mix early on if some strong guys go in an early break or if not he is always likely to do exactly what he did today and take advantage of the marking and watching amongst the GC boys. Christophe Riblon seems very short to me for tomorrow's stage at 28/1 (as short as 15/1) considering he finished 129th, 19 minutes down today, I can't understand that one, maybe he has said he fancies this stage or has been training on the climb or something but I can't see it happening tomorrow. Acevedo and Formolo went well today too and might have some freedom to attack tomorrow too. Pardilla rode as well as I thought he might today and wasn't far off the pace, I'm going to give him another go at 100/1 on Betfair again. 

Recommendations:

Philip Deignan - 1pt each-way at 10/1 with BetVictor

Esteban Chaves - 1pt win at 6/1 with BetVictor

Sergio Pardilla - 0.2pts at 100/1 on Betfair

Watch Twitter for in-play bets too.