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Published on Wednesday, 28 May 2014 22:38

Giro d'Italia St.18

Belluno to Rifugio Panarotto

Thursday 29th May, 177kms 

Back in to the mountains again and depsite the fact some riders will have one eye on the tough mountain TT the next day, there will be no hiding and no quarter given on another very hard day of climbing. Three tough climbs lie in wait again with the final climb a real leg-breaker averaging 7.9% over 15.9kms.

This stage probably feels a little left out in terms of the big stages that everyone has been talking about for this week, all the focus has been on the Gavia/Stelvo on Monday, The TT on Friday and the Zoncolan on Saturday. But underestimate this stage at your peril. The day is a day that will likely see a lot of attacking at the start as many who are not bothered about the TT on Friday will be looking to get up the road for a possible stage victory.

It is a day we could have seen a break make it all the way, and when I first looked at this stage I thought 'perfect for a breakaway'. The GC men will be preserving energy ahead of the TT and many of the teams will be happy to let a break get up the road. It could be that we see as many as 20 or so in the break like on Stage 17. But, there is one thing that might have changed that slightly, and that is the fact that the peloton and the GC men had a day off today. It was almost like an unofficial strike as they took it so easy. So it might mean that tomorrow's stage is a lot more agressive than might have been expected.

Tinkoff-Saxo have said that they (particularly Majka) will attack. They are not happy with the events of stage 16 when Majka lost places to Quintana and Rolland. AG2R could look to make it agressive, and who knows, if the stage is there for the taking, then Quintana is the man to take it. 

Stage 17 as I mentioned already was a day-off for the peloton as the early break were allowed build up a massive lead that never looked like being pegged back. The 26 men worked well together until it was whittled down by the 'Poggio' and Thomas De Gendt's attack. In the end it was a canny attack from a very fired up Pirazzi that took the stage honours, but that didn't stop Veikkanen from celebrating what he thought was a victory, but in fact it was just 6th place. 

Giaccomo Nizzolo rolled in with the peloton some 15 mins later, in 140th place, but luckily for our match-bet Bouhanni finished in 155th! A lay of De Gendt in play at 5/4 as he led by about 20" and a lay of Bouhanni for a top 3 place both helped on the day to put me slightly ahead.

The most excitement almost came before the stage when there was a conflab amongst all the teams Director Sportifs about the events of the previous day and the descent neutralisation or lack of it. It seems the outcome of the meeting was a call for the descent attackers (including Rolland and Quintana) to be penalised up to 2 minutes for attacking when it was supposed to be neutralised. Many riders, including the likes of Uran, Majka, Evans etc all stopped at the top of the Stelvio to put on clothes, believing the descent to be neutralised. Looks like the organisers and the UCI are having none of it though and it looks like the standings will stay as they are.

The Route

Another tough day in the Dolomites for the weary peloton, and although there is a real battle ahead of the riders on today's stage, many will be thinking of the two days racing that lie ahead - the mountain TT to Cima Grappa on Friday and the savage climb to the Zoncolan on Saturday.

But as soon as the stage starts they will have to put those stages out of their heads as this one starts right from the flag drop again. A small descent for 6km or so to Mas and suddenly they are starting out on the lower slopes of the first climb of the day. Officially the climb starts at the 36km mark but they will already have been climbing for 30kms before that. 

The 'official climb' though of the Passo San Pellegrino is 18.5kms at an average of 6.2% but it starts easy enough and gets steeper as the climb progresses, with the hardest section between kilometres 12.5 and 15 where it averages 11.6% and hits a maximum of 15%. Towards the top it eases off again to 4.6% for the last kilometre. As a Cat. 1 climb though there are plenty of points on offer and with the mountains jersey still up for grabs, expect Arredondo, Wellens, Cataldo and Chalapud getting involved in the early break. 

Then a very fast descent for nearly 30kms is followed by nearly 40kms of rolling, bumpy roads before they hit the Passo Del Redebus at the 118km point. It may only be 4.6kms long but it is really hard. The first 500m average nearly 14%, and it only eases off a little in the last 500m to 3.8%, making the average over the 4.6kms a painful 9.5%.

Another 20km descent, 13kms of flat roads and then at 155km gone they start up the final climb to the summit finish at Rifugia Panarotta. The first 3kms are easy enough, around 5%, but then it starts to wind up through the switchbacks and gets steeper and steeper, averaging a steady 8.4% all the way to the finish. Around the 7-9km mark is the steepest area, hitting 14% in a couple of sections on the bends. The last 2kms stay steady around 8.6-8.8% meaning there is no let-up at all for whoever is going for stage glory.

Contenders and Favourites

As I said above, an early breakaway has a great chance of making it to the finish, but you will need to be a strong climber to be able to finish it off on that horrible climb to the finish at Rifugio Panarotta. So who are the likely breakaway candidates that could be capable of hanging on on the final climb as all others tire out?

The Colombians are flying at the moment and morale amongst campatriots on differing teams must be very high. A big point to note for the Colombians in the next few days is that the Coldeportes Director and Colombian Sports Minister Andres Botero landed in Venice today, along with Colombian Cycling Federation President Ramiro Valencia Cossio. They will be spending the rest of the race with the team, and tomorrow the Sports Minister Botero will be in the team car...

This should be a huge motivation for them and I can see a number of Colombians trying to make it in that early break - riders such as Winner Ancona, Fabio Duarte and Chalapud going after the KOM jersey. Speaking of which, Arredondo is also likely to be involved. Wellens could be, but he had a hard day out front today, which almost saw him take the stage victory, so he could be tired. Having said that though he was off the front hoovering up whatever few KOM points were available so he has designs on that prize clearly.

I think Arredondo is worth a lay at odds on if you can get matched for the KOM jersey, he could well lose it to any number of different riders, including Quintana, who is worth a small bet at 3/1 on Betfair. 

Winner Ancona has had a quiet start to the race but seems to be getting stronger - 16th place on that brutal stage to Val Martello was pretty respectable. At 150/1 he could be worth a few quid. Duarte missed out on the main action too on Stage 16 and he wasn't happy apparently as he was hoping to go really well. He could have his chance tomorrow. He is far enough down on GC to be allowed go and he will love that last climb. There is 15/1 available on Betfair and Bet365 and although short, has a double chance in that if he doesn't get in the early break of the day, he could well attack from the main peloton on the last climb if the leaders are within catching distance.

Robson Chalapud took off on the Gavia to bag some KOM points and he could well try something similar on Thursday - he now sits in second place in the KOM competition, just 26pts behind a tiring Arredondo. I think he will go for that early break to try to get max points as it would give him a lead in the competition for a while, as long as Arredondo doesn't take points. At 80/1 he is worth backing as a trading bet maybe, to lay out should he get in the break of the day.

Other possibles for the break are Deignan (although he had a day out front today and may look to save himself for the big stages to come..) Dani Moreno, but is no price at just 25/1 best price, Pantano, Rosa or Rabottini? Or what about Roche? We could see him get in the break of the day with the plan to support a late attack from Majka to pull back time.. They are saying they are going to attack and they might try to play a surprise attack tomorrow.   

If the break doesn't get enough of a gap and it is catchable on the last climb, then it's a different game altogether. They have a tailwind on the final climb tomorrow so that should encourage aggressive, early attacking on the final climb. We could see Rolland or Pozzovivo go long, or Majka with a team planned move like I mentioned above. Or we could see Uran, filled with anger about the manner in which he lost the jersey go on an all out attack to try to gain it back, or at least some pride. 

We were denied a proper battle on the Val Martello because Rolland and Quintana had such an advantage, but it did look like Aru struggled a bit like I thought he might. It will be interesting to see how he goes with effectively a rest day to recover today. He has in the past got stronger in latter stages of a race so we could see him lighting things up tomorrow too. 

Could we see Evans getting that old diesel engine chugging up the mountain, dragging all these young whipper-snappers behind him? He could do just to try to maintain a steady tempo, but from once the little guys say go he will struggle again I feel. What about Przmyslaw Niemiec? He came in to this race as an outside podium hopeful but he has had a disaster so far. Maybe we could see the Lampre-Merida double act too with Winner Anacona going up the road early and Niemiec bridging on the final climb, or even the Redebus? That is going to be a tricky climb and we could well see a selection of 30 riders or so that will go to the finish, given its incredibly steep slopes. 

But if it does come down to a GC men battle for the stage, then I think there can be only one winner - Nairo. He may not have had that battle to really show us how he could now fare against the likes of Pozzo and Aru, but the fact is he put 2'30" on a group of GC favourites who were riding full-gas to try to close the time gap down. And he had to do it all on his own more or less as Rolland and Hesjedal were economical in their work-sharing to say the least. Yes, he struggled to drop a shattered looking Hesjedal, but he didn't need to beat him by minutes, his battle was being won versus Uran, Majka and Aru. He was majestic looking though and I think that if he presses the button on the steep 9.6% and 8.8% sections with 5km to go on the climb he could show them all a clean pair of heels again. 

I think he will be hurting a little from the abuse fired at him for attacking and he will want to show the world that the minute or so he gained on the descent will make no difference at all in the end. He could win by 30" to a minute tomorrow and the same on the Zoncolan. I think as he is clearly over his infection and full of confidence he will attack and put more time in to all his rivals. Whether it's for the stage win though, that's another question. I think the 7/2 available on Betfair is worth taking and I may top up in play on him too depending on how it's going. If it looks possible that they will fight out the stage then anything above evens is worth backing Quintana. 

So another puzzler, that could end up like today's stage. I've gone small on some big priced breakaway candidates, but still think Quintana is the man again tomorrow. 

Recommendation:

2pts win On Nairo Quintana at 7/2 on Betfair

0.2pts win on Winner Anacona at 150/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Duarte at 15/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Robson Chalapud at 80/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts win on Niemiec at 37/1 on Betfair

0.2pts win on MA Rubiano at 200/1 with William Hill

Lay Arredondo for the KOM Jersey at 4/5 if possible (lay to lose 2.5pts to win 2pts)

Back Quintana for the KOM jersey at 3/1 on Betfair (2pts)

Match Bets 

Niemiec to beat Cardoso at 11/8 - 2pts with Paddy Power.