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Published on Sunday, 18 May 2014 23:30

Giro d'Italia St.10

Modena to Salsomaggiore Terme 

Tuesday 20th May, 173kms 

Rest day over, it's a nice easy introduction back to the race on Tuesday. A relatively short stage at 173kms also happens to be a realtively easy stage with the vast majority of the route through the flat roads of the Po Valley. A little lump to get over with less than 5kms to go shouldn't cause any problems and a sprint awaits. 

The rest day will be welcome to a peloton which has been soaked, battered and bruised over the last 10 days. Crashes have taken their toll and we are down to just 182 riders with a number of high-profile casualties including Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez. Cadel has oozed confidence and experience and has given himself a superb chance of landing a podium spot as the very least.

Quintana has shadow boxed and has not shown anything yet and at times has shown he is not 100% fit yet, such as on the finishing hill on Stage 5 when he couldn't catch the Moreno/Rodriguez group and pulled over to let Matthews do the work. Also on Stage 8 when he had a chance to gain some time on Evans by going after Ulissi  in the last 100m but just was unable to. Having said that he hasn't looked under pressure and still finished 4th on stage 8. He knows what lies ahead and is happy to bide his time. 

Second placed Rigoberto Uran has been quietly going about his work and seems to be coming in to himself nicely ahead of the challenges to come and Rafal Majka has been superb as well to move in to 3rd place with some really solid rides. Domenico Pozzovivo signalled his intentions today with a superb attack that gained him 30" on Evans, and has moved from 14th to 4th place in just 2 stages. It looks like it is probably between these 5 guys but don't rule out some of the other guys making it on to the podium, there is a lot of racing left yet.

The KOM jersey and the sprints jersey competitions are also still wide open affairs.  Bouhanni leads the sprints competition from Viviani by just 16 points but has flipped with Viviani in the betting, now evens favourite from 5/2 Viviani. In the KOM, Arredondo leads by 8pts from Ulissi thanks to his long breakaway on stage 8, Pirazzi is just a further 13 points back in 3rd. It's a long way from being finished though with lots of points still up for grabs on the many mountains left to traverse. 

The white jersey competition is wide open too with 5 riders inside 35" of the leader Rafal Majka, with 1/2 favourite Quintana in 5th behind Aru,  Ulissi and Kelderman.  We're yet to see Nairo make his move but it's nice to see our 7/1 man Majka in pole position for now.

Stage 9 went as I expected with a break staying away, unfortunately even though Deignan and Hansen both got in early breaks they were reeled in and none of my guys made the break in the end. The match bet acca went down but at least the Pantano match bet landed at 5/6.

The Route

A pretty boring route from an action point of view as it loops in a horse-shoe shape route from Modena, up to Mirandola and Villarotta and back down to Parma city which they go right through the centre of more or less. Once in Parma they take a sharp right and head in a dead-straight Roman road for 25kms where they take a left at Fidenza and head up the little hill that comes 9kms from the finish.  

The climb up to Bagni di Tabiano is short and not too difficult and once they get over it there is only 5kms to the line, but the 2km descent down to Salsomaggiore Terme is fast and difficult. Between the 3km to go marker and the Flamme Rouge there are quite a few roundabouts and tight bends and if riders aren't concentrating it could be dangerous.

The last kilometre up to the line though is straight and without obstruction and the final straight is 120m long on a 7.5m wide road. It does slope a little uphill in the last 2kms with a pull all the way to the line. 

The stage is the 'Tappa Bartalli' in memory of Gino Bartalli, who won three stages and the overall in 1936, one of which stages was in Salsomaggiore Terme.

Contenders and Favourites

The little bump before the finish will be taken at high pace but I don't think it is hard enough to shake off any of the sprinters and it looks like it will almost certainly end in a bunch kick. Watch out though for an attack from Movistar's Adriano Malori,  he comes from Parma which they pass through on the way.

An interesting stat up to stage 9 was that all the stage winners so far have won twice - Matthews (inc the OGE TT win), Bouhanni, Kittel and Ullissi! Going on that record, then Weening should win stage 10! Based on the results already you'd have to say Bouhanni is a hot favourite to take the hat-trick on this stage. With two victories behind him, his second stage win when holding the pack at bay in the first proper sprint he's been involved in without Kittel on stage 4 was pretty impressive. At 11/8 though it is quite short, but is it worth taking?

Having said that, Nizzolo is giving him a real good run for his money and this uphill finish could swing things back in his favour. A long straight drag race could see Bouhanni go too early and Nizzolo has been finishing faster than Bouhanni on the two stages he has finished 2nd to him in. If he can time it right this time he could well reverse those placings. Nizzolo has said that he is not interested in the 2nd places, that winning is all that counts so he is really fired up for what could be one of the few chances of a stage win left in the race. He is just about backable each-way at 5/1, I think he'll be unlucky not to be in the first three.

Elia Viviani will get it right one of these days, but he has disappointed too many times for me now, he looks a real nearly man in this race now. Bad lead-outs, bad positioning and bad luck has seen him fail to deliver the goods on the many occassions he has been fancied. He is bound to get it right the day I desert him but I think it will be better to swerve him on this stage, even at the 7/1 with Paddy Power, he is a very short 9/2 with Bet365.

Stage 7 sprint highlights..

One rider who put in a fantastic ride on stage 7 was Tyler Farrar - a puncture 15km from the end when the peloton was really starting to wind up should have been the end of his day, but not only did he get back on, but he got up to the front and finished a very respectable 6th on the stage. Often derided as a '5th to 10th' man he will like this finish and could well step up on to the podium - 33/1 looks tempting.

Luca Mezgec came very close on Stage 7 too, taking  3rd place, he lead at the 50m to go mark, only to be passed by a flying Nizzolo and Bouhanni. WIth a good lead-out again, he may be right there challenging for the win this time. 

Roberto Ferrari should be in the first 6, but we won't be seeing Chicci after he abandoned on stage 9 after his spectacular dive over the barriers on stage 8. Ben Swift might like this uphill finish better than some but I think he is a 4th to 10th place man again, even at 20/1 I won't be backing him. 

So it looks like it will be a big, frantic bunch gallop again and I think Bouhanni looks the most likely winner, but I am not going to back him yet.. I will wait to see if I can get around 2/1 on Betfair and then he might be worth a bet - I'll update the page on Monday night once I've thought a big more about it with my final recommendations

As I was looking at the Betfair overall market tonight and thinking about taking 2.4 about Quintana someone suddenly offered £50 at 2.66, which I took, getting nearly 7/4 on a rider I still expect to win it, who is generally evens with the bookies was just too big to miss. 

Update: Monday 21:30. Bouhanni hasn't moved at all from 11/8 - 6/4 and is now just 7/4 on Betfair after trading for small amounts around 6/4. I think this is just a bit too short, it just might click with one of the other guys, and it might be the day that Nizzolo times it right and passes him on the line. I think though if you take around 2.8 on Betfair it might be a good trading bet as he will probably trade close to evens if up near the front in the last 3 or 4kms and you could lay out for a free bet for around 0.8pts. Other than that, I think Nizzolo at 5/1 is just about acceptable as an each-way bet, I think we would be very unlucky not to collect on the place part and he has a good chance of landing the 5/1 win part too. Not a day for big stakes though I think as anything could happen, there are a few interesting match bets though. 

Recommendations:

Back Bouhanni at 2.8 or close to it and put up a lay in play around 2.0 to 2.1 for a free bet

1pt each-way on Nizzolo at 5/1 with various

Match Bets 

Farrar to beat Ferrari at 8/5 with 888Sport - 1.6pts

Nizzolo to beat Mezgec at 3/4 with 888Sport - 2pts 

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