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Published on Friday, 16 May 2014 22:50

Giro d'Italia Stage 8

Foligno to Montecopiolo

Saturday 17th May, 179kms 

Things are getting serious now. You know it's going to be a hard days climbing when you are riding on a stage dedicated to Marco Pantani. These are his roads. These are his climbs. Like him or loathe him you can't deny he was exciting to watch at the time and it will be interesting to see if anyone can light up this stage like he could.

He may have been juiced up his entire career as is now evidently clear but he provided some iconic rides and iconic images that cycling fans the world over still idolise him for. 'Il Pirata' is remembered in this Giro on three stages. Firstly, on this stage as the Carpegna was one if his favourite training climbs. Secondly on stage 14 to Oropa and finally stage 15 to Montecampione, the sites of two of his most memorable victories. 

The Carpegna is also remembered as the scene of one of the famous battles between José Manuel Fuente and Eddy Merckx in 1974. Having lost time to Fuente Merckx promised to attack to get rid of the 'wheelsuckers' and was true to his word. But what transpired was Fuente was more than a match for his attacks and even managed to drop the Cannibal on the Carpegna.

It is a hard, mythical climb and the fact they crest it with just 36km to go means that the pace is sure to be extremely high to get rid of any 'wheelsuckers'. Once they hit the bottom of the descent from the Carpegna there are only about 15km of climbing left to the high summit finish at Montecopiolo. The climb to Montecopiolo takes them over the Eremo Madonna del Faggio, another of Pantani's training climbs and a super tough climb with some extremely steep parts near the top. As the old cliché goes, you may not win the Giro here but you can certainly lose it.

Stage 7 proved a little exciting from the point of view what we could have seen the long breakaway succeed for a change.. they almost made it, being reeled in with just 3km to go after a frantic chase which looked doomed at times. All of the sprinters were there though as that last climb proved less difficult than it seemed and Nacer Bouhanni just pipped my man Nizzolo for the win. Very close to another decent win today. The match bets did the business though, returning nearly 5pts profit.

The Route

The stage is described in the race manual as 'an unrelenting mountain stage. The route features an endless series of up-and-downhill twists and turns, along sometimes worn out roads'. I guess they mean some of these roads surfaces have seen better days. And although the road is not quite endless, as they finish on the Montecopiolo it sure will feel like it's relentless to those who are not of the climber variety or who are suffering from battered and bruised bodies.

The stage heads north along the Scheggia Pass and then heads for Caglia. The feed zone is in Acqualagna and the intermediate sprint comes shortly after in Urbania. It may have been rolling along up until then, but that's the end of the easy stuff. After 126km the road starts to rise up.. Although they are climbing for approx. 10km up to the town of Carpegna, it's an uncategorised climb even though they gain 300m in about 7kms, averaging around 4%. But that's just a warm-up.

After a little descent the climb to the Cippo di Carpegna starts with 136.7kms gone. The Cippo climbs 694m in 6kms, averaging 9.9%! It doesn't tell the full story though as the first 1.5kms average only 2.9%. From 1.8kms to 4.6kms in to it, it averages 9.3% with the section between 3 and 3.5kms averaging a nasty 13.2% and hitting a max of 14%!. But the last 3.2kms are a leg-breaking average of 10.4%, with most of it around 11% average. This is where we will say goodbye to the majority of the bunch, if some of them had not already shouted 'Piano' on the lower slopes. 

Once over the top there are just 36km to go so the race will be in full flow. The descent is very difficult with narrow roads and lots of hair-pins - I make out 19 in total on the way down. The road opens out after the Cantoniera Pass in Carpegna. The road descends to to Pennabilli and drops sharply again after passing Maciano. 

Once at the bottom, only 19kms remain. But what a horrible 19kms they are. It comes in two steps - the first part is a Cat 2 climb up to Villagio Del Lago, averaging 6.2% over 9.3kms. This should see another selection as GC men's teams try to shed as many 'wheelsuckers' as possible before the final assault of the Montecopiolo. First, a 3km descent and then the climb to the finish starts. It's a very uneven climb with it alternating between steep parts of over 10% to not so steep parts of 5% and even little flat/descending parts. With less than 2kms to go it starts to get really steep for a while at over 10%, then a little flat section for a couple of hundred metres, then the last big test for 500m at over 12%. Whoever wants to win this stage needs to keep a little something in reserve for that last kick. 

Contenders and Favourites

This stage looks on paper like it is where we see Nairo Quintana start to claw his way back in to this race and lay down a marker. The finish should suit him perfectly and the opposition is nowhere near him in terms of ability on a course like this if he is 100% fit and well. But that's the question - is he fit and well? I thought it was a little worrying to see him swing off the front of the chase when he couldn't close the gap to Moreno's group on stage 5. Was he just letting others do the work as he was saving himself? Was he playing games? Or was it that he couldn't actually catch them as he wasn't going all that well after all?

To be honest, those were not his climbs and I think it was maybe more a case of, 'if you want this stage Matthews, go get him, as I won't win this sprint...' and he saved himself the effort. His Movistar team is battered and bruised though with a number of them involved in crashes, including today when Ventoso went down hard in the last few kms. He still has Anton, Izagirre, Herrada and others to set the tempo on the first parts of the climb to tee him up for an attack on the final climb.

He could go from 4kms out when it hits over 10%, either instigating or following a big move by someone else, or he could wait for the last 500m where it hits 12%. IF he wants to gain lots of time, he needs to go early. If he thinks he's not 100% yet, he might go from 500m out and gain 20-30" with the bonus seconds added on. Either way, I think he is a rock solid favourite for tomorrow at 100/30 with Betfair. You might even get bigger in play tomorrow if the break of the day builds up a big lead. 

Cadel Evans has been in superb form as I have mentioned lots of times already so I won't repeat it. I'll keep it to that I think he will be right up there again tomorrow and is a likely top 3 target. Unfortunately I missed the incredible prices he was available at earlier, apparently he opened at 22/1, was slashed to 14/1 where more steamed in and he is now best price 6/1 which I think is too short (he is as short as 9/2 with BetVictor who are afraid to lay any bets these days on cycling. They've really dropped down the list with offering a decent cycling betting offering.

Domenico Pozzovivo should like this finish too, the irregular sections will suit his punchy little style and he is obviously in great shape seeing how he chased back on his own the other day after crashing. I think he is not on the same level as Quintana whatsoever though and it could be 2nd or 3rd for him at best I think. He can be quite inconsistent though and the way Evans beat him in Trentino would have me worried. 16/1 with Betfred looks an alright each-way bet though. If Bet365 open their 'finishing positions' market in play again tomorrow though, I think a better bet might be '4th to 9th'.

What about Rigoberto Uran? I'm not sure. I'm not a big fan and I don't think he is 100% fit at all but he could well be an instigator tomorow with 3-4kms to go. He may go, but unless Cadel and Quintana play games and he gets away, I don't think he will stay away. He is too close on the GC though to be let go so I'm ruling him out as another '4th to 9th' man.

Nico Roche and Majka could be interesting - Roche has lost all GC hopes now it seems after a disastrous crash and slow bike change on stage 6, but he could now go stage hunting. I think the effects of the crash and the steepness of the final part will put him off tomorrow, there will be other stages next week  and the week after he can tackle. Majka is obviously flying but I think he will follow wheels and ride conservatively tomorrow. 

Julian Arredondo is another, like Roche, who lost all GC hopes through the crash of stage 6. Being over 15" down means he will probably get more space, but what will he do? Get in the day's early break, hoping of staying away and taking KOM points? Or wait and attack on the last climb? Not sure, but I don't want to rely on him I think, it's a watching brief on him for tomorrow. 

One I really like the look of though, and who I have backed earlier at 20/1 is Dani Moreno. He looked very strong on stage 5 as he dragged Rodriguez's butt up and away from the peloton with 1km to go with a massive pull at the front. As soon as he pulled over the rest could not match what he was doing and the break collapsed. With Purito gone home now, Moreno will be free to do his own thing. If he can hang in there in the last 3-4kms then he has a real chance on a finish that he will love, the 500m at 12% is right up his street. He tends to attack on his own though when he goes with an explosive burst, so I have gone for win only on him - he either wins solo or may not be in the first three I think.

Lots of others with outside chances, Diego Ulissi is clearly in good order and confidence will be high, and he too will like this finish. At 18/1 I can't put you off him if you're a fan, but I'm skipping it for now. Rabottini at 150/1 looks big, as does Kelderman at 100/1, but I think this will be too steep for him. Pirazzi is injured so I'm not touching him. Monsalve, the Venezuelan could be a dark horse at a big looking 80/1 with Ladbrokes. Finally, Fabio Aru could well reward a small bet at 66/1 each way with Betfred and Skybet, the young Italian had a superb Trentino and he finished in 13th on stage 5. These roads will suit him a lot better though. 

The one spanner that could be thrown in the works could be that a good break goes away and stays away, but I think Movistar, Astana, BMC and Katusha will reel them in on the Montecopioli.

Recommendations:

Nairo Quintana - 3pts win at 100/30 with Betfair

Daniel Moreno - 1pt win at 20/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Rabottini at 150/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Fabio Aru at 66/1 with Skybet

Match Bets 

Moreno to beat Hesjedal at evens with Bet365 - 2.5pts

Majka to beat Scorponi (4/9), Quintana to beat Pozzovivo (4/11), Evans to beat Uran (8/13) 2pts on a treble pays just over 2/1 

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