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Published on Tuesday, 13 May 2014 23:54

Giro d'Italia Stage6

Sassano to Montecassino 

Thursday 15th May, 257kms 

Up the west coast we go then, leaving Sassano and skirting along the Tirreno sea for a while, passing north of Napoli towards the finish in Montecassino. It is a generally flat stage with a sting in the tail - the last 8km kick up at an average gradient of 5.1% with 10% slopes at the bottom just as they hit the climb.

The spectacular Montecassino Abbey dominates the landscape here, sitting proudly at the top of the peak that rises up from the town of Cassino. The road snakes left and right and around the contours of the hill, finishing with a spiral effect around the top. 

The hill is the site of one of the most significant battles in WWII - in 1944 when the Allies tried to drive north they were held up at the Gustav line. On 15th February they deployed an enormous barrage of bombs on the town of Cassino and destroyed the town and the famous abbey. It was the start of a 4-month battle for the line which eventually fell in May. Up to 75,000 soles were lost in the battle and there are many memorials and graveyards dotted around the area. 

Thankfully the Abbey has been restored to its former glory and we are sure to get plenty of those hovering helicopter shots during and after the stage as we wait for the results. 

It is the second longest stage in the race at 247kms, just 2kms shorter than stage 11 to Savona, but the majority of the stage should be pretty uneventful, up until the last 30 minutes or so and then all hell should break loose once again on the mount of Cassino. (In fact the stage is now 257km long due to a landslide early on in the course, but it shouldn't affect the result).

The Route

The route follows alongside the A1/E45 main motorway all the way from Sassano to Cassino. There are a few little lumps and bumps at the start but nothing really to worry about. They then cross a little Cat 4 climb at the 102km point at Cava de' Terreni (5.4kms at 3.5%, max of 8%). It's rolling but more or less flat for the next 135kms until they hit Cassino and the road suddenly kicks up for the run to the finish. 

They charge through the dead straight road through the centre of Cassino and there will be a real battle to be at the front, as at the end of the main street there is a hard left turn with approx 8.5kms to go. The first slopes they hit are the steepest, hitting 10%, and shortly after they hit the first of the seven hairpin bends that wind up the side of the hill. The average gradient is 5.1% over the last 8kms and it's a pretty consistent climb all the way to the last 700m or so when it starts to level out to an average of around 2.5% and the last 40m is almost flat and bends slightly as it winds around the top of the hill to the abbey.  

Contenders and Favourites

Stage 5 was the 'anti-pasti' for this stage, as the similar climb up to Viggiano has shown us who is going well at the moment and who is not. Diego Ulissi has obviously been hiding his form then as he exploded out of the shadows to take today's stage. Such was the anonymous way he made his way up, the commentators thought it was Niemiec as he crossed the line.. 

The last section of the climb was interesting though as we first saw Roche test his legs but not get very far, then Moreno, unfortunately for our bet, drilled it at the front to set it up for Rodriguez who just didn't have the legs. Cadel Evans looked calm, strong and assured as he just rode his own finish and came home a very good 2nd ahead of Julian Arredondo who rode well but just didn't have the kick to match Ulissi's acceleration. Uran was also heavily involved and took 4th, luckily he did as I just avoided backing him at 22/1. 

Pozzovivo rode at the back of the remains of the peloton most of the way up the last climb, so when things kicked off he was badly positioned and had to come from a long way back. He finished 9th, but surely would have been closer had he ridden with any sort of intelligence. Another disappointment from Domenico.. Battaglin and Ponzi were way down, disappointing rides from them too. Fortunately Paddy Power are running their great concession where they refunded all stakes on my losing bets, turning a losing day in to a scratch day! (edit - I was unfair on Pozzovivo it seems and he was actually very unlucky as he got caught in a crash with 15km to go and had to chase like fury to get back on. To finish in 9th place considering was remarkable and very unlucky for our bet I think. Same goes for Ponzi and Battaglin, they were caught in crashes too.. no luck with crashes this week huh...)

After his superb win today Diego Ulissi has been installed the very short 3/1 favourite for tomorrow's stage. He showed last October that when he is in form he is capable of racking up multiple wins with three victories in 3 races over 10 days. It may be though that tomorrow he will try to attack again but the opposition will be ready this time - Cadel is smart enough to not let him get away with that move two days running. The flatter finish will possibly work against him too as others like Matthews, who may be up there could outsprint him. At 3/1, he is a strong favourite, but I'm going to pass again. 

Micheal Matthews rode brilliantly today, hanging in there right at the front but when Quintana let a gap go Matthews had to close it himself and used the strength he needed for the finish. I think OGE can ride a bit more defensively tomorrow and save some riders for this last climb. If they do and Matthews has the strength he had today then he will be a strong favourite for the finale. He will need to just hang in there at the bottom in the 10% section, but that's where his team may have to try something, filling the road and riding steady tempo. I think at 8/1 he has a great chance of defending his pink jersey for one more day and a top 3 at worst is very possible.

Cadel Evans looked really good today and I think he will be right at the front again tomorrow when they hit the last 500m. He is smart and he has a great finish on a stage like this. I think BMC will set this up for him by trying to burn off Matthews and some of the sprinting climbers in the 10% section at the bottom. If it comes down to a grinding sprint over the last 200m he should be right there. He will like this finish though with the flattening profile towards the end, if he can go with the late attacks he must fancy his chances against some of the favourites in a sprint finish. 8/1 just about makes it an acceptable bet for a top 3 place each-way, but I liked the 7/4 that was available on Betfair for a top 3 finish, far better than backing each-way if you think he might be beaten to 2nd or 3rd place. 

EBH is 4th favourite at 11/1 but although it should suit him and he rode well today, he faded when it mattered most and finished in 29th place. I don't think he is worth a bet at 11/1. Next up is Julian Arredondo at 12/1 and again, although he rode well today he didn't have the finishing kick to catch Ulissi and was passed in the sprint for the line. If it comes to a similar finish tomorrow I can see a similar outcome. 

On paper, this could have been the stage that Purito must have had his eye on ever since losing time last Friday in the TTT. A slightly steeper approach, hitting 6% with 2km to go, we could well see him launch a trademark explosion from the front of the group. He needs to make up some time I think soon just to take some pressure off and this is an opportunity to grab 10" or so on the stage and a 10" time bonus. One thing that could be slightly against him though is that the last 700m or so start to flatten out to only about 2% gradient and if he doesn't have enough of a lead he would probably be caught and passed like in the World Championships last year. Unfortunately for his chances, he showed today that he is not quite at 100% yet, as he was unable to finish off Moreno's solid work. I'm going to skip over him tomorrow. 

Outsiders? The word out there seems to be that Mauro Finetto fancies this stage and has been targetting it. He was pretty disappointing though today for a man that should be in good form if he thinks he can win this stage, and I think I'll pass on the 33/1. Matteo Rabbotini, my pick for the KOM rode well today to finish just behind Roche in 17th place, just got caught for pace when the Katusha boys went for it. At 150/1 he could be a big priced outsider for a small bet for tomorrow. (Edit: Got 300/1 on Rabottini on betfair last night so had an 0.7 points at that price!)

Recommendations: 

Michael Matthews - 1pt each-way at 8/1 with BetVictor

Michael Matthews - 0.5pt win on Betfair at 11/1

Cadel Evans - 2pts to finish in top 3 at 7/4 on Betfair

Matteo Rabottini - 0.3pts each-way at 150/1 with BetVictor

0.7pt on Rabottini to win at 300s on Betfair

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