Details: Published on Saturday, 10 May 2014 22:44

Giro d'Italia Stage3

Armagh to Dublin

Sunday 11th May, 187kms

Well after a wet and cold stage in Northern Ireland, Marcel Kittel delivered the goods for me with a convincing win in the sprint. Coming from a long way back in the last 300m, he easily powered past Bouhanni and the rest to take the win. Nizzolo got up to take the 3rd spot on the podium just denying us our Viviani bet.

His team left it late to come to the fore, but that wasn't a problem - Orica, Sky and FDJ were prepared to take turns at the front in the last 5kms to keep things under control. After two days in Northern Ireland the Giro heads south to the Republic for a stage finish in the heart of Dublin city centre. It's a shame that the hundreds of thousands of Irish fans who will be lining the route will not get to see one of their heroes Dan Martin, but there are still three Irishmen left in the race who they can cheer on. Roche of course will be getting the lion's share of the adulation, but Sky's Philip Deignan will have his share of supporters.

The third 'Irishman' Chris Juul-Jensen may now be officially declared as Danish but he is definitely half Irish and as he puts it himself, 'to be back home is pretty special'. If there was any doubt about where he spent the first 15 years of his life then take a listen to that Dublin accent in this video below done by Dave 'Shoddy Cycling' Everett!

He is sure to have huge support too with old school friends, neighbours and team-mates from when he grew up out to show their support for him. I'm particularly looking forward to tomorrow as I am heading over for the stage and am a guest of Saxo bank in hospitality on the finish line, hoping to get to meet Nico or Chris after!

The stage should once again be a stage for the sprinters, but it has a tricky run in that could cause problems and the last kilometre or so, if anyone knows the geography of Dublin is sloping gently uphill all the way to the finish outside the Irish Government Buildings and the National Museum.

The Route

They start by heading north for a little bit but then the rest of the course is predominantly heading south and they spend much of the day on or pretty near to the east coast of Ireland, passing through the counties of Armagh and Louth on the way to Dublin. The weather could have a big impact on the stage as it looks like being a cold, wet and windy day. Temperatures of 14º max are expected, with rain forecast and a strongish westerly wind blowing them all day towards the coast.

It's predominantly a flat stage but they hit two smallish Cat 4 climbs on their way out of Northern Ireland, passing over the Markethill Summit after 32kms and the Fews Forest after 51kms. The rest of the stage is pretty flat and uneventful as they start to enter suburban north dublin and head down towards the dock area and past the IFSC financial centre. This stretch of road used to be pretty rough and bumpy, hopefully it has been given a fresh lick of tarmac for the visit of the Giro. As they hit the dock area outside the Point Theatre there is a tricky roundabout to negotiate with about 2km to go, then it's flat out up along the quay before crossing the Talbot Memorial Bridge with just over a km to go.

Dublin-chicane Up the hill then past the Pearse St train station and in to the last few tricky bends. The chicane they need to get through at Lincoln place at the bottom of the finishing straight with 500m to go could be a real problem, especially if the roads are wet - here's a picture of the bend, they come up from that road in front, left, take a fast left, then a fast right and on to the finishing straight behind the camera.

As I mentioned before the last km or so is uphill but nothing major, but it could make a small difference to those who like a slightly uphill finish. Their leadouts will have to get it right too, the uphill drag coupled with that last bend means that it could well be the man in 2nd or 3rd wheel to his leadout men that gets the early run at the last 500m.

Route Map

Giro-stage3-map

Profile

Last Kms

giro-stage3-last-kms

Contenders and Favourites

This again looks like a stage for Marcel Kittel - the last 500m will suit his power finish as he will be able to wind it up from the last bend, as long as he gets to that last bend in the first 3 or 4 riders. There is a huge onus then on his leadout men, but luckily he has a pretty excellent lead-out train with him. He is very short though at best price 4/6, but if you don't mind betting odds-on in a fast and furious finish then take the 4/6, he's 8/15 with Paddy Power. It's going to be very hard to beat him.

Nacer Bouhanni will be a real danger too in this stage as he is a real scrapper and will be fighting to be in front for that last bend or to fight for Kittel's wheel. It could get really dangerous in that last bend with several teams and several sprinters trying to get through at the front. Throw in the likes of Ferrari, Chicci and Farrar and it can get even more scary! I think though you are betting on 2nd or 3rd place, so he's a bit tight at 6/1.

Michael Matthews could like this finish and Orica-GreenEdge could get a few strong men to the front to help lead him out in to that last straight. The uphill pull to the line will help his cause though and we could well see him involved for the first 3 places. On the other hand, he is in the pink jersey so will he be challenging in the sprint or just staying safe? I fear it might be the case.

Elia Viviani though looks great value at 14/1 with Paddy Power, I expect him to be closer tomorrow - I think he will turn the tables on Nizzolo but he will need to be in the first 6 or 8 going through the last chicane. Any further back and it could be too much to make up. He will need to sit on Kittel's wheel again but jump with him this time, he got lost at just the wrong moment today. At 14/1 though I think it's a good each-way bet.

Tyler Farrar looked good for a while today, hovering right at the front in the last few Kms, but didn't have the kick at the end. I'll be passing on him tomorrow. Nizzolo did excellent today to get as close as he did and steal 3rd place, Trek Factory Racing clearly fancied his chances as they massed at the front in the last 5kms but he can be quite inconsistent and I think he won't be in the first three tomorrow. 4th to 10th place for him I think, same for Swift and Ferrari - good, but not good enough!

Recommendations:

Play up some winnings on Kittel - 4pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes

1pt each-way on Elia Viviani at 14/1 with Paddy Power.

Match-bet double - Nizzolo to beat Ferrari at 4/9 and Farrar to beat Chicchi at 4/6 - double pays nearly 6/4.

Tour of California bet - back Bradley Wiggins to win it at 5/4 with BetVictor, I have been told that he has been told "he has to win it".. I have had 8pts at 5/4..